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Companies Eurostat FollowFRANKFURT, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation slower further and even underlying price pressures appear to have peaked, Eurostat data showed on Friday, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising rates after its fastest rate-hike cycle on record. Consumer prices increased by 5.3% in July versus 5.5% in June, extending a downtrend that started last autumn. Meanwhile price growth excluding food and energy, the underlying measure closely watched by the ECB, was flat at 5.5%, Eurostat said, confirming preliminary figures. Underlying price pressures are still strong and the labour market is unusually tight, suggesting that wage pressures will persist as workers enjoy superb bargaining power. But economic growth is stagnating, investment is falling and overall consumption is flat, at best, suggesting that price pressures should ease as the economy suffers.
Persons: Balazs Koranyi, Sharon Singleton Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Eurostat, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, disinflation
ECB survey points to stickier underlying inflation
  + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
FRANKFURT, July 28 (Reuters) - Core inflation in the euro zone will come down more slowly than previously thought as wage growth is seen picking up in a tight labour market, a European Central Bank survey showed on Friday. The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) was presented to ECB policymakers this week as they decided to raise interest rates for a ninth consecutive time but also signal that the next step was still undecided and a pause was on the cards. "Respondents indicated that the upward revisions reflected recent data outturns showing more persistence than expected as well as higher forecast wage growth," the ECB said. Forecasts for the unemployment rate were revised down for this year and the next -- to 6.6% and 6.7% respectively -- despite slightly lower growth expectations for 2024 and 2025. Reporting By Francesco Canepa; editing by Balazs KoranyiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi Organizations: European Central Bank, Professional, ECB, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT
This will leave investors guessing whether another rate hike is coming or if July marks the end of the ECB's fastest-ever tightening spree. "The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction," the ECB added. While markets had fully priced in another rate hike just a few weeks ago, a growing number of investors are betting that Thursday's move will be the last. More tightening would however be consistent with comments from a host of policymakers, including ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, that raising rates too far would still be less costly than not lifting them high enough. This is a key reason why the balance of expectations has started to shift away from another rate hike, with economists increasingly focusing on how long rates will stay high.
Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT
The ECB raised interest rates for the ninth consecutive time on Thursday in its year-long effort to bring down inflation. It also decided to stop remunerating banks' minimum reserves to contain the amount it pays in interest and the losses it is likely to make. The ECB is currently remunerating lenders' mandatory reserves in the same way as their deposits, which are reserves held above the minimum. On Thursday it increased the deposit rate to 3.75%, in a widely expected decision, while cutting to zero the rate on minimum reserves. "Since then, the efficiency aspect has risen in relevance, in line with the higher level of the key ECB interest rates," it said.
Persons: Arne Petimezas, Petimezas, Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi, Valentina Za, Christina Fincher, Catherine Evans Organizations: Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, AFS Group, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Amsterdam
[1/2] European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates again next week following similar positive inflation news. Meanwhile on Friday, the Bank of Japan opened the debate on plans to bring its ultra-loose policies to an end. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate now stands in the 5.25%-5.50% range, while the ECB's main rate is 3.75%. While bond markets took a cue from the faster growth, and pushed yields on Treasuries higher, the days of coordinated global tightening may be numbered.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lagarde, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi, Leika, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, U.S . Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters, U.S, Graphics, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT, TOKYO, Europe, United States, Graphics New, Tokyo
That will leave investors guessing whether another rate hike is coming in September or if July marks the end of the ECB's fastest-ever tightening spree. While markets had fully priced in another rate hike just a few weeks ago, investors are now split, with many expecting July's move to be the last. "We see a 60% probability that the ECB will hike again by a final 25bp on 14 September," Berenberg's Salomon Fiedler said. "Softer data such as the drop in the Eurozone composite PMI indicate a rising chance that the central bank will stay put in September already." This is a key reason why the balance of expectations has started to shift away from another rate hike, with economists increasingly focusing on how long rates will stay high.
Persons: July's, Berenberg's Salomon Fiedler, Isabel Schnabel, Jerome Powell, Anatoli Annenkov, Christine Lagarde, Commerzbank's Marco Wagner, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, PMI, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT
Inflation up in German states, pointing to national rise
  + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
BERLIN, June 29 (Reuters) - Inflation rose in five economically important German states in the month of June, preliminary data showed on Thursday, suggesting a bumpy road ahead for German inflation. In May, inflation rates for those five states, out of 16 in Germany, stood at between 5.7% and 6.6%. National inflation data will be published at 1200 GMT, with economists surveyed by Reuters forecasting a 6.3% year-on-year rise, up from 6.1% in the previous month. June inflation data for the bloc is due on Friday. As a consequence, German inflation dipped in June 2022.
Persons: Maria Martinez, Balazs Koranyi, Friederike Heine, Toby Chopra Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, North, Rhine Westphalia, Bavaria, Brandenburg, Hesse, Baden, Wuerttemberg, Germany
[1/2] The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not rule out further hikes at consecutive Fed meetings while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde confirmed expectations the bank will raise rates in July, saying such a move was "likely". "Policy hasn't been restrictive enough for long enough," Powell told an annual gathering of central bankers hosted by the ECB in the Portuguese mountain resort of Sintra. "We are not seeing enough tangible evidence of the fact that underlying inflation, particularly domestic prices, are stabilising and moving down." While headline inflation was above 3%, the BOJ was keeping monetary policy easy because underlying inflation remained below its 2% target, Ueda said.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Powell, Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, BoE, Bailey, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Balazs Koranyi, Francesco Canepa, Mark John, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, . Federal, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, SINTRA, Portugal, Sintra
UK showing signs of persistent inflation, BoE's Bailey says
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
SINTRA, Portugal, June 28 (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last week's rise in interest rates reflected a resilient economy and unexpectedly persistent inflation, sticking closely to his message after the BoE raised rates to 5% from 4.5%. "The cumulative data - both particularly on the labour market and on the inflation release we had, which to us showed clear signs of persistence - caused us to conclude that we had to make really quite a strong move," Bailey said at a European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal. Bailey added that in his view the unexpected half-point rate rise was preferable to two consecutive quarter-point moves. Reporting by Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa; writing by David Milliken; editing by William SchombergOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, BoE, Bailey, Balazs Koranyi, Francesco Canepa, David Milliken, William Schomberg Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: SINTRA, Portugal, Sintra , Portugal
At present, minimum reserves are remunerated at the ECB's deposit rate, now 3.5% after a string of interest rate hikes to tame inflation. The sources said some staff advocate leaving an adjustment of the corridor until the ECB ends its current tightening cycle, with the final move a change in the deposit rate. The ECB has given itself a year-end deadline to decide, the sources said, although details could take longer to work out. Now, the deposit rate effectively sets an interest rate floor, similar to the way U.S. Federal Reserve rates function and the sources indicated this was likely to remain the case. Such a "demand driven floor-system" would let the ECB add excess liquidity as needed as opposed to running a permanently oversized balance sheet.
Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Catherine Evans Organizations: Staff, Senior European Central Bank, Reuters, Market, ECB, Federal, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Helsinki, SINTRA, Portugal, Sintra, Finland
ECB policymakers line up behind rate hike plans
  + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Underlying inflation eased to 5.3% in May, but a big chunk of the drop was due to a one-off administrative discount in German transport prices. Wunsch has said in the past that the ECB's deposit rate could hit 4% if underlying inflation did not moderate. Joining the chorus behind rate hikes, Estonian central bank chief Madis Muller said more rate action is needed. "Euro zone interest rates have not yet peaked," Muller said in a statement. "The ultimate goal is clear for the central bank - we need to quickly get the price rise under control."
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, Austria's Robert Holzmann, Gediminas Simkus, Madis Muller, " Muller, Balazs Koranyi, Andrius Sytas, Julia Payne, Francois Murphy, Terje Solsvik, Alex Richardson, Toby Chopra, Jan Harvey Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Belgian, U.S, Estonian
Bundesbank sees German economy shrinking this year
  + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
FRANKFURT, June 16 (Reuters) - The German economy, Europe's biggest, will shrink this year and inflation will stay above 2% at least through 2025, the Bundesbank said on Friday in a biannual update of its projections. "The German economy is set to recover only arduously from the crises of the past three years," the Bundesbank said. The Bundesbank now sees the German economy contracting by 0.3% this year, a worse outcome than the European Commission's 0.2% expansion projection. The economy will then grow by 1.2% next year and 1.3% in 2025, both below previous forecasts, the central bank said. "With regard to inflation, risks are tilted to the upside," the Bundesbank said.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Nagel, Balazs Koranyi, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, German
More rate increases were coming, she said. LAST MILEThe Fed's pause was partly out of respect for the time lag between rate increases and their impact on the economy. The ECB needs to see the effects of policy go "all the way down to inflation," Lagarde said. "I still think, and my colleagues agree, that the risks to inflation are to the upside," Powell said. "What we'd like to see is credible evidence that inflation is topping out and then beginning to come down."
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Jerome Powell, Powell, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Fed, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, New U.S, U.S, Europe
Growth in the euro zone is at best stagnating and inflation has been moderating for months, courtesy of lower energy prices and the steepest increase in interest rates in the ECB's 25-year history. But inflation in the euro zone is still unacceptably high for the ECB at 6.1% and underlying price growth, which typically excludes food and energy, is only starting to slow. That was set to keep the ECB on the tightening path, particularly after it failed to predict the current bout of high inflation and began raising rates later than many global peers last year. Two quarters of contraction in industrial powerhouse Germany dragged the euro zone into a shallow recession last winter and the economy is likely to eke out only modest growth this year. "The Governing Council’s past rate increases are being transmitted forcefully to financing conditions and are gradually having an impact across the economy," the ECB said in the statement.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Francesco Canepa, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Staff, Reuters, Germany, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, ECB's
ECB raises rates to 22-year high and signals more to come
  + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
FRANKFURT, June 15 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the eighth successive time as expected on Thursday and signalled further policy tightening, as it battles high inflation. "The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target," the ECB said after lifting the deposit rate by 25 basis points to a 22-year high of 3.5%. But the labour market remains tight, nominal wage growth is quick and underlying price pressures, particularly for services, appear to be stubbornly high. Prior to Thursday's decision, markets had priced in another 25 basis point ECB rate hike in July or September and saw a moderate chance of another move later this year, perhaps in September or October. Attention now turns to ECB President Christine Lagarde's 1245 GMT news conference.
Persons: Christine Lagarde's, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Staff, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT
FRANKFURT, June 15 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymakers began this week a debate on evening out the "corridor" between the ECB's three interest rates, in a first step towards an era in which money is scarcer, five sources told Reuters. The ECB currently pays banks a 3.5% interest on their deposits while lenders can borrow from the central bank at 4% for a week and 4.25% overnight. They also argued that their hands were full with interest rate hikes and a cut in the bank's balance sheet. But the topic was set to become more relevant in the coming months as liquidity is drained from the banking system. Reporting By Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt; Editing by Hugh LawsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi, Frank Siebelt, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Staff, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT
That is likely to keep the ECB on the tightening path, particularly after it failed to predict the current bout of high inflation and began raising rates later than many global peers last year. Economists polled by Reuters expect another move of the same magnitude in July before the ECB pauses for the rest of 2023. Instead, euro zone rate-setters have focused on actual economic data that has been painting a mixed picture. Two quarters of contraction in industrial powerhouse Germany dragged the euro zone into a shallow recession last winter and the economy is likely to eke out only modest growth this year. As a result, economists expect the ECB to send out a more balanced message about the outlook than at recent meetings, when it stressed the need to raise rates further to cool demand.
Persons: Carsten Brzeski, Christine Lagarde, Berenberg, Francesco Canepa, Catherine Evans Organizations: ECB, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, ING, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Germany, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, ECB's
ECB urges banks in Russia to leave quickly
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
FRANKFURT, June 13 (Reuters) - Euro zone banks in Russia should leave quickly, the bloc's top supervisor said on Tuesday, making a rare explicit call on those lenders to wind down operations more than a year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "I think that it is important that banks remain very focused on reducing further their exposures and, ideally, exiting the market as soon as they can," Andrea Enria, the European Central Bank's chief supervisor, told a conference. More than a year into the war in Ukraine, a handful of European banks, including Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International (RBIV.VI) and Italy's UniCredit (CRDI.MI), are still making money in Russia. Raiffeisen and UniCredit, which both say are shrinking their businesses in Russia, play an important role for Russia's economy, which is grappling with sweeping Western sanctions. Raiffeisen, the most important Western bank in Russia, has said it is examining a spin-off or sale.
Persons: Andrea Enria, Italy's, Enria, Raiffeisen, Balazs Koranyi, John O'Donnell, Andrew Heavens, Emelia Organizations: Central Bank's, Austria's Raiffeisen Bank, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow
The Bank of England in February removed its explicit guidance and tied decisions to inflation data. The Bank of Japan, by contrast, still battling to raise perennially weak inflation, has left the core part of its guidance intact with a pledge to "patiently" sustain loose policies. The European Central Bank says it has adopted a "meeting-by-meeting" approach with "a strong preference against returning to outright forward guidance on policy rates." If the projections show the policy rate moving up later this year, officials will likely face questions if they do as expected and hold rates steady at the June meeting. If the rate is not seen moving up, they will face questions about not being responsive to recent data showing strong inflation despite pledging to be "data dependent."
Persons: Jerome Powell, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Powell, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Gregory Daco, Louis, James Bullard, Data's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Louis Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Central
Euro zone consumers hopeful of slowing inflation - ECB survey
  + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
FRANKFURT, June 6 (Reuters) - Euro zone consumers lowered their inflation expectations for the next 12 months and three years in April, a fresh European Central Bank survey showed on Tuesday, an event that would relieve policymakers after an unexpected surge a month earlier. Inflation has slowly come down from double-digit territory last autumn but it could still take until 2025 for prices to fall back to the ECB's 2% target as underlying pressures appear stubborn, driven by the fastest nominal wage growth in years. "Thus, the increases observed in March have largely been reversed," the ECB said. "Inflation perceptions and expectations continued to be closely aligned across income classes, with younger respondents reporting lower inflation perceptions and expectations and sharper declines than older respondents," the ECB said. Consumers also saw more modest wage growth ahead, reduced their unemployment expectations and were less pessimistic about the bloc's growth prospects, even if they still saw a contraction ahead.
Persons: Balazs Koranyi, Bernadette Baum Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Consumers, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT
"Because inflation was high for a long period, underlying inflationary pressures have built up," Knot said in a speech. "It is likely that price pressures in these areas will prove more difficult to bring down." "It is reassuring to see the first signs of recent monetary policy actually being transmitted to the real economy," Knot, an outspoken policy hawk, said. "These are only the first, concrete steps in the transmission of our monetary policy tightening," Knot said. The ECB also needed to mind stability considerations because the financial system needed to adjust to higher rates, Knot added.
Persons: Klaas Knot, Christine Lagarde, Balazs Koranyi, Andrew Heavens Organizations: ECB, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Dutch
Euro zone consumers more hopeful on inflation
  + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
[1/2] A shopper pays with a five Euro bank note to buy eggs at a local market in Nice, France, April 26, 2023. REUTERS/Eric GaillardFRANKFURT, June 6 (Reuters) - Euro zone consumers lowered their inflation expectations, a fresh European Central Bank survey showed on Tuesday, a relief for policymakers after an unexpected surge a month earlier, even if underlying price growth is still likely to be stubborn. Still, Knot warned that it could still take some time before inflation, at 6.1% in May, is fully under control. "Because inflation was high for a long period, underlying inflationary pressures have built up," Knot said in a speech. The ECB's consumer expectations survey also included a new nugget that could support arguments for more cautious policy tightening.
Persons: Eric Gaillard FRANKFURT, Klaas, Joachim Nagel, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Balazs Koranyi, Bernadette Baum, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Nice, France
[1/2] European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde walks on the day of addressing the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, at the European Parliament, in Brussels, Belgium June 5, 2023. REUTERS/Yves HermanFRANKFURT, June 5 (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Monday acknowledged "signs of moderation" in core inflation in the euro zone but reaffirmed it was too early to call a peak in that key gauge of price growth. Lagarde's comments were likely to cement market expectations for more interest rate increases from the ECB this month and the next despite a sharp fall in inflation last month. "The latest available data suggest that indicators of underlying inflationary pressures remain high and, although some are showing signs of moderation, there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked," Lagarde told European lawmakers. Lagarde conceded that the effects of past rate hikes "were starting to materialise" and were likely to "strengthen in the coming years".
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Yves Herman FRANKFURT, Lagarde, Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi, Bernadette Baum Organizations: European Central Bank, European Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, REUTERS, Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium
Some economists argued that the bigger than forecast drop in underlying inflation suggests that not much work is left to be done. "Underlying inflation has probably passed its peak," Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil said. "This supports our expectation that the ECB will raise key interest rates by 25 basis points for the last time in June." Services inflation slowed to 5.0% from 5.2% while price growth for industrial goods eased to 5.8% from 6.2%, still excessive but both moving in the right direction. Euro zone wage growth is hovering in the 5% to 6% range, twice the rate that would be consistent with the ECB's inflation target.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Christoph Weil, Nordea, Balazs Koranyi, John Stonestreet Organizations: FRANKFURT, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Germany, Netherlands, Ireland
BERLIN, May 31 (Reuters) - Inflation eased in five economically important German states in the month of May, preliminary data showed on Wednesday, suggesting that national price rises are set to slow to their lowest in more than a year. The inflation rate in North-Rhine Westphalia fell to 5.7%, while in Bavaria it slowed to 6.1%, in Brandenburg to 6.3%, in Hesse to 5.9% and in Baden-Wuerttemberg to 6.6%. In April, inflation rates for those five states, out of 16 in Germany, had been between 6.8% and 7.6%. National inflation data will be published at 1200 GMT, with economists surveyed by Reuters forecasting a 6.5% year-on-year rise. Furthermore, the base effects from high energy and food prices in May 2022 will disappear from the year-on-year comparison.
Persons: Luis de Guindos, Maria Martinez, Balazs Koranyi, Matthias Williams, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, Rhine Westphalia, Bavaria, Brandenburg, Hesse, Baden, Wuerttemberg, Germany, Dutch
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