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☆ VIEW US payrolls rise moderates in March, participation rate firms
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. Data for February was revised higher to show 326,000 jobs were added instead of 311,000 as previously reported. That also should ease pressure in the job market and help overall growth in the months and quarters ahead." “The overall headline view is that everything is remarkably in line with expectations. "The Fed will look positively on a further rise in participation to a new cycle high 62.6%, while a renewed drop in unemployment to 3.5%, coupled with continued healthy headline jobs growth, should cement the case for another 25 bps rate hike at the May meeting."

The flow may be signalling a shift in sentiment among foreign investors who have been notably absent while China's markets and economy roared back to life after Beijing abruptly lifted its stringent zero-COVID policy in December. Alibaba's shares (9988.HK) are up more than 14% in the five days since the company's announcement and some 11.7 billion yuan ($1.7 billion) in foreign cash has flowed into China's markets. That's already more than the net 9.2 billion yuan in inflows in February and drove March flows to 35.4 billion yuan and the quarter's inflow to a record of 186 billion yuan. Premier Li Qiang assured foreign investors that China would unswervingly adhere to reform and opening up, expanding market access and optimising the business environment. Ernest Yeung, a portfolio manager at U.S. asset manager T. Rowe Price, anticipated "a gradual process of stabilisation" of private enterprises and the internet sector.

The index of top European banks (.SX7P) was down 1% in early trading, with German banking giants Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) both falling 0.8%. The rescue of Credit Suisse, which followed the collapses of California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (SIVB.O) and New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O) ignited broader concerns about investors' exposure to a fragile banking sector. The decision to prioritise shareholders over Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bondholders rattled the $275 billion AT1 bond market and some Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders are seeking legal advice. "The AT1 instruments issued by Credit Suisse contractually provide that they will be completely written down in a 'viability event', in particular if extraordinary government support is granted," FINMA said. However, some watchers think the banking system is more vulnerable to rumour and rapid moves in an era of widespread social media use, posing a challenge for regulators trying to tamp down instability.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure investors about the soundness of the banking system, saying that the management of Silicon Valley Bank "failed badly," but that the bank's collapse did not indicate wider weaknesses in the banking system. "These are not weaknesses that are running broadly through the banking system," he said, adding that the takeover of Credit Suisse seemed to have been a positive outcome. The Federal Open Market Committee policy statement also said the U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient." The much-anticipated rate cut by the Fed, which had delivered eight previous rate hikes in the past year, sought to balance the risk of rampant inflation with the threat of instability in the banking system. The banking sector has been in turmoil after California regulators on March 10 closed Silicon Valley Bank in the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis.

The ECB vowed to support euro zone banks with loans if needed, adding the Swiss rescue of Credit Suisse was "instrumental" for restoring calm. [1/6] Chairman of the Board of Directors of UBS, Colm Kelleher and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Credit Suisse, Axel Lehmann attend a news conference on Credit Suisse after UBS takeover offer, in Bern, Switzerland, March 19, 2023. The Swiss central bank said Sunday's deal includes 100 billion Swiss francs ($108 billion) in liquidity assistance for UBS and Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse shareholders will receive 1 UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held, equivalent to 0.76 Swiss francs per share for a total consideration of 3 billion francs, UBS said. Under the deal with UBS, some Credit Suisse bondholders are major losers.

☆ UBS to take over Credit Suisse, central banks act on liquidity
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-19 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +13 min

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) -UBS sealed a deal to buy rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in an effort to avoid further market-shaking turmoil in global banking, Swiss authorities said on Sunday. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Credit Suisse is pictured in front of the Swiss Parliament Building, in Bern, Switzerland, March 19, 2023. The reports that UBS is acquiring Credit Suisse will likely magnify Credit Suisse’s problems by moving them to UBS... The Credit Suisse issues are not new and needed to be resolved years ago. A legal challenge by Credit Suisse shareholders, who will claim that their property has been illegally confiscated, is guaranteed.

[1/2] Logos of Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse are seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 19, 2023. UBS will buy rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) and agreed to assume up to $5.4 billion in losses as it winds down the smaller peer's investment bank after a shotgun merger engineered by Swiss authorities. The failure of two U.S. banks and a rout in Credit Suisse shares have sent shock waves through markets over the past week, reviving memories of the 2008 financial crisis. The U.S., UK and Swiss central banks are all scheduled to meet in the week ahead. Others drew attention to the losses likely to be suffered by Credit Suisse junior bondholders.

☆ Analysis: Investors brace for hard landing as banking woes stoke recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] The Charging Bull, or Wall Street Bull, is pictured in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., January 16, 2019. “The no landing scenario has quickly evaporated,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Asset Management. A financial accident has happened, and we are going from no landing to a hard landing driven by tighter credit conditions,” he wrote in a Wednesday note. Some investors believe regulators' quick backstop of Silicon Valley Bank, which included guaranteeing the funds of depositors, will prevent a crisis and allow for a soft landing. “The odds of a soft landing have gone down and the likelihood of a hard landing has gone up,” he said.

Wall Street's main indexes recorded steep losses in the previous session after startups-focused lender SVB Financial Group's (SIVB.O) share sale to shore up its balance sheet wiped out more than $80 billion in value from bank shares. The bank is in talks to sell itself, the report added. All three major U.S. indexes were headed towards weekly losses as Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week left open the possibility of a large rate hike at the Fed's March meeting, after the central bank dialed down the size of its rate hike last month. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 3.33-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 3.88-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Shristi Achar in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Rebounding yields could scuttle U.S. stock rally as Powell stays firm on rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 1.3% along with a 6 basis points rise in the 10-year U.S. benchmark Treasury yield . yields vs stocksHigher bond yields dull the relative appeal of stocks while raising companies’ borrowing costs. Higher Treasury yields can also weaken the valuations of equities in standard valuation models, particularly for tech and other companies that rely on future profits that are discounted at higher rates when yields rise. Meanwhile, some investors are not yet worried about the threat to stocks from yields. Jacobsen is bullish on growth stocks, which were squashed by higher yields last year but have staged a strong rebound in 2023.

Worries of higher rates for longer amplified the downbeat mood set by disappointing results from megacap growth companies. The three main Wall Street indexes were still set for gains this week. Ten of the top 11 S&P 500 sectors fell with only energy stocks (.SPNY) in positive territory as oil prices rose. Nearly 70% of half the S&P 500 firms that reported fourth-quarter earnings have topped Wall Street expectations. Analysts now see earnings of S&P 500 firms declining 2.7% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv.

☆ Wood's ARK Innovation Fund on pace for best month ever as battered stocks surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation Fund is closing in on the best monthly performance in its history as it rides a rebound in many of the high-growth stocks that took a beating last year. The $7.3 billion ARK Innovation (ARKK.P) fund is up slightly more than 25% for the month to date, putting it ahead of the 25% gain it notched in April 2020. Investors are awaiting the Feb. 1 conclusion of the Fed's monetary policy meeting for clues on whether easing inflation is swaying policymakers to a less hawkish view. The central bank is widely expected to increase its key policy rate by another 25 basis points next week. Overall, January's rally has helped ARK Innovation's assets under management grow by approximately $1.2 billion this month, while investors have pulled a net $59 million out of the fund, according to Lipper data.

☆ Instant view: U.S. GDP grows in fourth quarter; weekly jobless claims fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate on Thursday. The swing in inventories was the wildcard and that added 1.46 percentage points to GDP growth. "If you look at the GDP data it does seem like we left 2022 with a little bit more momentum than people had thought and with consumption we're also in a pretty good spot. “We have a GDP number that is well above trend, and the previous quarter’s number was well above trend. That suggests higher rates were starting to take a bigger toll, and sets the stage for weaker growth in the first quarter of this year."

☆ Analysis: Wood’s ARK slammed by higher interest rates in 2022 along with other growth funds
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The ARK Innovation Fund has lost around 67% year to date, more than tripling the decline of the S&P 500 index (.SPX). With the S&P 500 on pace for its biggest annual decline since the Great Financial Crisis, few funds are likely to escape 2022 unscathed. Wood's fund ranked 3,544 among all 3552 actively-managed U.S. equity mutual funds tracked by Morningstar. The worst performing fund of the year, by comparison, was the Voya Russia fund, which is down 92% for the year to date. CRASH LANDINGOther funds that soared in recent years on the backs of large bets on technology stocks fell on hard times in 2022.

☆ Fed pausing rate hikes would trigger an equity rally, says Allspring's Jacobsen
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed pausing rate hikes would trigger an equity rally, says Allspring's JacobsenBrian Jacobsen, Allspring Global Investments, and Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the difference between goods and services, if a rate hike pause would spell good news for equities and more.

☆ Rising rates are weighing on the housing market - and macro headwinds could keep the sector depressed in 2023.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Don't shoot the messenger here, but today I'm breaking down the many troubles plaguing the housing market and homebuyers. The Fed's interest rate maneuvering and the housing market are connected, and mortgage rates often move in lockstep with the central bank's benchmark rate. Brian Jacobsen, a senior strategist for Allspring Global Investments, pointed to a triumvirate of headwinds weighing on the housing sector: labor shortages, rising costs, and soaring mortgages. That means more rate hikes are effectively guaranteed, which raises the odds of a recession and can further squash housing demand. What's your forecast for the housing market next year?

☆ The US housing market faces a 'triple whammy' of threats - and stocks may stage a Santa Claus rally, a top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US housing market has been hit by labor shortages, rising costs, and soaring mortgage rates. Brian Jacobsen, an Allspring strategist, described those three trends as a "triple whammy." On the other hand, the Allspring strategist suggested US stocks could reverse some of their recent declines before the new year. Its policymakers have responded by raising interest rates from almost zero in March to over 4% today. Higher interest rates encourage people to save rather than spend, and they raise the cost of borrowing, relieving upward pressure on prices.

☆ Fed hikes rates by 50 bp, as expected, keeps hawkish tone
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

STORY: STATEMENT TEXT:MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: The S&P 500 turned sharply lower then steadied down 0.11%BONDS: Benchmark 10-year note yields rose then backed off to 3.4847%. CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, INDEPENDENT ADVISOR ALLIANCE, CHARLOTTE“The Fed is taking away the punchbowl just as the party was getting started. They’re reiterating their forecasts but the whisper number was that the Fed was going to stop at a 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate. You know, the biggest thing that is holding the Fed back right now are the jobs numbers. The most dovish participants is looking for an extra 50 bps of hikes.

☆ Instant view: Fed hikes rates by 50 bp, as expected, keeps hawkish tone
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, INDEPENDENT ADVISOR ALLIANCE, CHARLOTTE“The Fed is taking away the punchbowl just as the party was getting started. They're reiterating their forecasts but the whisper number was that the Fed was going to stop at a 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate. "But the Fed is out there saying that 5.1% is still on the cards … and that rate hikes will continue." BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“The most interesting part of the releases were in the Summary of Economic Projections. And they’re holding it there longer than markets expected.”“In addition, they’re downgrading GDP estimates for this year, and in particular, for next year.

☆ S&P 500 ends slightly lower after jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Labor Department's jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 263,000, above expectations of 200,000 and wage growth accelerated even as recession concerns increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 34.87 points, or 0.1%, to 34,429.88, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4,071.7 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11,461.50. The major averages notched a second straight week of gains, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.13%, the Dow gaining 0.24% and the Nasdaq rising 2.1%. The S&P 500 growth index (.IGX) declined 0.29% while technology shares (.SPLRCT) were among the worst performing among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors with a fall of 0.55%. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 92 new lows.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Stocks typically rally in December, investors have some caution this year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

September, meanwhile, is the worst month of average for stocks, with a 0.7% average decline. Gains would be welcomed by many investors after seeing the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) fall around 16% so far this year. Still, weighing on the market has been the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions to aggressively tighten interest rates to fight inflation. The average Santa rally has boosted the S&P 500 by 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. The painful double-digit declines in both U.S. stocks and bonds, meanwhile, have made both asset classes more attractive for long-term investors, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

"The uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited." Still, the implication that policymakers were stepping down from their break-neck pace of rate hikes lifted U.S. stock prices and sent Treasury yields lower. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed rate expectations, dropped to 4.49%. Contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate showed investors maintaining bets for a half-percentage-point increase at the Dec. 13-14 policy meeting. "The path forward for monetary policy is a battle between the 'various' and the 'several,'" said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist with Allspring Global Investments in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

The data showed retail sales rose 1.3% last month led by motor vehicles after remaining flat in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales accelerating 1%. Among S&P 500 sectors, retail (.SPXRT) and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) were down 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.10-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 2.41-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded one new 52-week high and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 33 new highs and 56 new lows.

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. Despite the sales warning from Target, latest data on U.S. retail sales suggested that consumer spending remained stable and could help to underpin the economy in the fourth quarter. The data showed retail sales rose 1.3% last month after remaining flat in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales accelerating 1%. ET, Dow e-minis were down 57 points, or 0.17%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 14.25 points, or 0.36%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 71 points, or 0.6%.

☆ Instant View: Comfortably cool U.S. CPI suggests aggressive Fed hikes taking hold
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

read moreMARKET REACTION:STOCKS: S&P 500 futures turned sharply higher and were up 3.1%BONDS: The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled and was down 21.5 basis points at 3.927%; The two-year U.S. Treasury yield was down 26.6 basis points at 4.362%. The dollar index was off 1.3%COMMENTS:BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“Well, that was a relief. And I think the expectation now is the Fed hikes rates 50 basis points in December. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. "Given just this data, it would allow the Fed to raise by only 50 basis points rather than 75 at the next meeting.

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