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☆ A 25 bps cut will be just fine for the economy, says Jim Cramer
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

A 25 bps cut will be just fine for the economy, says Jim Cramer'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer looks ahead to next week's FOMC meeting and what it could mean for the markets.

Persons: Jim Cramer

☆ Stock market today: Stocks fall as annual inflation slows but monthly CPI notches surprise increase
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Core inflation rose 0.3% in August, slightly above economists' expectations. Meanwhile, investors dashed their hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. AdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors took in last month's inflation report, which showed an unexpected increase in the monthly core consumer price index. Bond yields rose as traders readjusted expectations for a jumbo rate hike of 50 basis points at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. AdvertisementThe surprise increase led investors to almost completely discount the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next policy meeting.

Persons: —, Josh Jamner, Jack McIntyre Organizations: Fed, Service, Dow Jones, ClearBridge Investments, Brandywine Global Locations: Here's

☆ Yen eyes 5-week high as focus turns to U.S. presidential debate, inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Markets were also cautious ahead of the first debate between U.S. presidential hopefuls Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with the candidates neck-and-neck ahead of the November election. The dollar was down 0.2% at 142.18 yen as of 0009 GMT, heading back towards the recent low of 141.75 yen, a level previously not seen since Aug. 5. The euro was little changed at $1.1019, after sliding to $1.10155 overnight for the first time since Aug. 19. Sterling was flat at $1.3080, following its drop to $1.3049 in the prior session, the weakest since Aug. 21. The stakes are particularly high considering the debate between Trump and President Joe Biden ultimately spurred the incumbent to drop out of the race.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Sterling, —, Kyle Rodda, Trump, Harris, Joe Biden Organizations: Federal Reserve, Capital.com, Republican, Democratic, Trump

☆ Here's why the stock market is throwing a tantrum about new inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Core inflation rose unexpectedly, dashing hopes for a bigger rate cut from the Fed. US indexes slumped on Wednesday, with the Dow dropping as much as 600 basis points in the early morning as traders took a mixed-bag of inflation data. That's the lowest headline inflation rate recorded since early 2021. On the other hand, cutting interest rates by just 25 basis points means higher for longer interest rates. "Today's inflation data cemented in a 25 basis point cut next week 50 basis points in out the window," she added.

Persons: —, Julian Howard, Gina Bolvin, Preston Caldwell, Chris Zacarelli Organizations: Fed, Traders, Service, Dow, of Labor Statistics, GAM Investments, Bolvin Wealth Management, Labor Department, Morningstar, Independent

☆ Evercore ISI's Mahaney on rate cuts: Base case is 25 bps, but investors should stay hunkered down
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEvercore ISI's Mahaney on rate cuts: Base case is 25 bps, but investors should stay hunkered downKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss his expectation from the Fed next week, what investors should watch out, and more.

Persons: Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: Fed

☆ Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha on rate cuts: Base case is 25 bps, but investors should stay hunkered down
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEvercore ISI's Krishna Guha on rate cuts: Base case is 25 bps, but investors should stay hunkered downKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss his expectation from the Fed next week, what investors should watch out, and more.

Persons: Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: Fed

☆ Markets are now wondering whether the Fed might cut by half a point in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Traders continued to price in a greater likelihood that the Fed will kick off what is expected to be a protracted easing campaign in September with a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, reduction. "My base-case scenario is that we are on a journey of 25 basis point cuts, probably for the next eight meetings, a couple hundred basis points cumulative," economist Paul McCulley said on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street ." "But if we see weaker growth, and particularly weaker jobs, then I think we could have a bit of front-loading and start the process with 50 basis point cuts." That, among other vows to support the economy now that inflation has waned, provided some indication that a 50 basis point move is at least on the table. Markets expect the central bank to knock off a full percentage point this year and at least that much in 2025.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Paul McCulley, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, you've, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Rick Rieder, Goolsbee Organizations: Federal, Traders, CME, Cornell, Georgetown, Fed, Nikko Securities, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Locations: Powell's, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Atlanta, Chicago

☆ Stock market today: Indexes climb as producer inflation comes in cool
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks were higher on Tuesday after PPI showed wholesale inflation was less than expected in July. Investors are now bracing for the consumer inflation reading due out on Wednesday. AdvertisementUS stocks were up on Tuesday after the producer price index for July showed wholesale inflation rose less than expected. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that producer prices increased 0.1% last month compared to estimates of 0.2%. The cooler-than-expected reading should boost optimism for consumer prices to show a decline in inflation when the consumer price index is released on Wednesday.

Persons: —, Chris Zaccarelli, Laxman Narasimhan, Brian Niccol, Elon Musk Organizations: PPI, Investors, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed, Depot, Bank of America, Starbucks, Trump Media, Elon

☆ Oil prices ease as markets refocus on demand worries
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, breaking a five-day streak of gains, as markets refocused on concerns about demand after OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for demand growth in 2024 due to softer expectations in China. Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, breaking a five-day streak of gains, as markets refocused on concerns about demand after OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for demand growth in 2024 due to softer expectations in China. Global benchmark Brent crude futures dipped 41 cents, or 0.5%, lower to $81.89 a barrel at 0005 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to $79.63 a barrel, down 43 cents, or 0.5%. Brent had gained more than 3% on Monday, while U.S. crude futures had risen more than 4%.

Persons: Brent, John Kirby, CME's Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, of, Petroleum, White House, Wednesday's, U.S Locations: China, Iran, United States

☆ Gold nudges higher on mounting U.S. rate cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday after comments from Federal Reserve officials reinforced expectations of bigger U.S. interest rate cuts later this year. Spot gold was up 0.1% to $2,408.77 per ounce as of 0354 GMT. Fed San Francisco President Mary Daly said her mind was open to cutting interest rates as necessary and policy needed to be proactive. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks opened higher, underpinning a recovery across battered Asian share markets and even triggering circuit breakers in some.

Persons: Mary Daly, Soni Kumari Organizations: Co, Federal Reserve, San, ANZ, Traders Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, U.S, San Francisco, China

☆ Chief money managers are using the stock-market carnage to funnel into key sectors. Here's what they're buying.
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Thursday brought more negative news from the jobs market: unemployment insurance claims for the week ending July 27 were up by 14,000 from the previous week to 249,000. Stepping back from last week's weak data, chief investment officers and top strategists say the market is overreacting, and they're using this as a buying opportunity. Related storiesSimilarly, the manufacturing data is not as foreshadowing as it seems on the surface. "But the ISM manufacturing data can be a leading indicator of S&P earnings, particularly the new order number." "If you look at non-US stocks and you look at their valuations, they're trading at about 13 times earnings," Calcagni said.

Persons: Dow, we've, Philip Straehl, Morningstar, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Alicia Levine, Levine, it's, what's, Morningstar's Straehl, Simeon Hyman, Hyman, Donald Calcagni's, Calcagni Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Institute for Supply, Business, BNY, Big Tech, Mercer Advisors Locations: Americas

☆ Squeeze on carry trades leave currency markets on edge
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on display in Yichang, Hubei province, Nov 13, 2023. The yen was 1% lower on Tuesday at 145.78 per dollar in early trading, after rising for five straight sessions and touching a seven-month high of 141.675 on Monday. "Sell-offs that manifest themselves through wild swings in the currency markets are sharp and swift, but usually very short lived," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. "Markets are clearly nervous about the divergent paths central banks are taking, leading to lots of volatility." The dollar index , which measures the U.S. unit versus six rivals, was flat at 102.87 in early trading after touching a seven-month low of 102.15 on Monday.

Persons: Jamie Cox, James Athey, undervaluation Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, Harris Financial, Traders, Bank of Japan, Marlborough Investment Management Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, recessionary, Japan, Switzerland, Tokyo

☆ Dollar nurses losses after Fed hints rate cuts on the way; yen firms
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Markets have been fully pricing in a 25 basis points of rate cut in September for some time and added to wagers of the Fed going big even after Powell said policymakers are not thinking about a 50-basis-point interest rate cut "right now." Goldman Sachs strategists said Powell comments suggest the bar is not very high for a rate cut in September. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was little changed at 104.02, having dropped 0.38% on Wednesday. But the BOJ seem keen to get interest rates up and normalize policy. It probably leads to more yen strength, but it could weigh on the local economy and equity markets."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Goldman Sachs, Kazuo Ueda, Ben Bennett Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, The U.S, Fed, Traders, Reuters, Bank of England, Legal, General Investment Management Locations: The, Japan, Asia, Pacific

☆ Dollar, yen hold tight ranges ahead of BOJ, Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar and yen kept within close ranges on Tuesday as traders awaited a barrage of key central bank decisions, kicking off with midweek monetary policy meetings from the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve. The dollar and yen kept within close ranges on Tuesday as traders awaited a barrage of key central bank decisions, kicking off with midweek monetary policy meetings from the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve. The Japanese currency was taking a breather from its recent rally as the BOJ began its two-day meeting on Tuesday, having surged over 2% against the dollar last week. The Fed is widely expected to stand pat this week, but markets are betting the U.S. central bank will begin cutting rates at the following meeting in September. Investors will be listening for any hints that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may drop on how soon policymakers are prepared to cut rates at his press conference.

Persons: Matt Simpson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Index's Simpson, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Index, Fed, Treasury, Bank of England's Locations: U.S

☆ Yen heads for strongest week in 3 months as carry trades unwind
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The yen was poised for its strongest week in nearly three months on Friday as traders unwound their long-held bets against the frail currency ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data that could cement rate cut expectations. The yen was poised for its strongest week in nearly three months on Friday as traders unwound their long-held bets against the frail currency ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data that could cement rate cut expectations. The euro was a tad stronger at $1.0853 but is down 0.35% for the week, its steepest weekly decline since early June. The souring risk sentiment this week has weighed heavily on the Aussie and the New Zealand dollar . The Aussie is down 2% for the week, its worst weekly performance since November 2023.

Persons: James Athey, Ben Bennett, they're Organizations: Marlborough Investment Management, Federal, Fed, Traders, Bank of Japan, Legal, General Investment Management, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Asia, Pacific

☆ Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Dell, Super Micro, ServiceNow, Ford, CrowdStrike
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Here are Thursday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Bank of America reiterates IBM as buy Bank of America said the "portfolio is delivering" despite the company's mixed earnings report on Wednesday. Morgan Stanley reiterates Ford as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's sticking with Ford as a top pick following earnings on Wednesday. Bank of America reiterates CrowdStrike as buy Bank of America lowered its price target to $365 per share from $400 but said it's sticking with the stock. Barclays reiterates Super Micro Computer as overweight Barclays said it's sticking with its overweight rating heading into earnings in early August. " Bank of America reiterates Birkenstock as buy Bank of America said the stock "warrants a higher multiple."

Persons: Mizuho, ServiceNow, Morgan Stanley, Ford, KeyBanc, Baird, AAPL, Price, LULU, Goldman Sachs, Dell, Goldman, Roper, CBRE, it's, CrowdStrike, Susquehanna, Bank of America downgrades Lamb Weston, Lamb Weston, Chipotle, Piper Sandler, Marvell, Piper, Birkenstock Organizations: Bank of America, IBM, Infrastructure, Consulting, Mizuho, Software, Ford, Apple, BMO, Citi, Dell, DELL, Roper Technologies, " Bank of America, Meta, AMD, SOX, JPMorgan, GE, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Barclays, AMC, Sirius XM, Davidson, Polaris

Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Rivian to $17 from $13. Analyst Frank Lee did raise his price target to $200 from $190, although he added that "the risk-reward is less attractive now." Guggenheim hiked the price target to $735 per share from $700. He did raise his price target for the stock to $225 from $180, although this price hike still implies that Tesla stock could fall 12%. Analyst Adam Jonas raised his price target on the stock to $17 from $13.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Frank Lee, Lee, Lisa Kailai Han, Michael Morris, Morris, Guggenheim, — Jesse Pound, Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman, Gutman, Seth Sigman, Truist, – Samantha Subin, TD Cowen downgrades Charles Schwab, Charles Schwab's, TD Cowen, Bill Katz, Charles Schwab, Katz, mgmt, — Lisa Kailai Han, Wells, Bank of America Wells, Mike Mayo, Mayo, Goliath, Dan Levy, Levy, Dennis Geiger, Geiger, Thomas Fitzgerald, Fitzgerald, David Windley, UnitedHealth's, Windley, UNH, Adam Jonas, Rivian, Jonas, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, HSBC, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Netflix, Guggenheim, Barclays, ISI, Citi, Mizuho, Bank of America, of America, Tesla, UBS, Sweetgreen, sss, IK, TD Cowen downgrades, Airlines, American Airlines, Delta, Jefferies, Presidential, Chevron, Volkswagen Locations: China, Tuesday's, Mayo, U.S, Tesla's, UnitedHealth, UNH's

☆ Trump victory trades to swell after shooting, investors say
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Saturday's shooting at U.S. former President Donald Trump's election rally raises his odds of winning back the White House, and trades betting on his victory will increase this coming week, investors said on Sunday. Trump was shot in the ear during the rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday in what the authorities were treating as an assassination attempt. The first shooting of a U.S. president or major party candidate since a 1981 assassination attempt on Republican President Ronald Reagan could upend the Nov. 5 rematch between Republican Trump and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, which has been tight in opinion polls. World leaders and U.S. politicians condemned the shooting, while some industry executives, including Tesla chief Elon Musk, declared their support for Trump. Investors also expect an extension of corporate and personal tax cuts expiring next year, fuelling concerns about rising budget deficits under Trump.

Persons: BUTLER, Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Trump, Rong Ren Goh, Ronald Reagan, Joe Biden, Reagan, Nick Ferres, Elon Musk, Biden, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Bill Ackman, Musk Organizations: Republican, Secret, U.S, Treasury, Eastspring Investments, Republican Trump, Democrat, Asset Management, Tesla, Trump, Reuters, Investors, Federal, Biden, Dow Jones, Democratic, Goldman Locations: PENNSYLVANIA, Butler , Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Singapore

☆ The world's most accurate economist shares his US economic and political outlook, as well as the secret behind his accuracy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-14 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Whether it's the markets or the Federal Open Market Committee, no one seems to be getting their forecasts right. But if you want the closest thing to accuracy, French economist Christophe Barraud may be your best bet. One caveat is that Trump would need 60 seats in the Senate to implement policy changes smoothly, Barraud noted. Where uncertainty in a Trump presidency remains is on the geopolitical front, Barraud noted.

Persons: —, Christophe Barraud, haven't, Barraud, it's, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, He's Organizations: Service, Federal, Market, Market Securities Monaco, Bloomberg, Business, Trump, Republican, Fed Locations: China, delinquencies, France, Italy, Ukraine, Russia

☆ U.S. yields lift dollar and leave yen languishing
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was supported by rising U.S. yields and the blowtorch was on low-yielding currencies on Tuesday such as China's yuan and Japan's yen, which was pinned to its lowest since 1986. The dollar was supported by rising U.S. yields and the blowtorch was on low-yielding currencies on Tuesday such as China's yuan and Japan's yen, which was pinned to its lowest since 1986. Against the euro , the yen touched a lifetime low of 173.67 on Monday and was near that level on Tuesday. China's yuan , which hit a seven-month low on the dollar last week and has hardly moved since, faces similar pressure with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 bps higher than Chinese government bond yields. The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and at $0.6075 was testing support at its 200-day moving average.

Persons: Donald Trump, Joe, Biden, Christopher Wong, China's, —, Sterling, Rob Carnell Organizations: U.S, New Zealand, ING Locations: Japan, Asia, China

☆ Euro slips to one-month low as Macron calls French election
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

It was last down 0.24% at $1.0776 as investors weighed the implications of renewed political uncertainty in the euro zone's second-biggest economy in a key election year. "But the exchange rate is still more likely to be influenced by this week's U.S. inflation data and FOMC meeting." The jobs data led traders to once again shift their expectations of when the Fed will cut rates and by how much. Markets are now pricing in 36 basis points of cuts this year compared to nearly 50 bps — or at least two cuts — before the jobs data. U.S. inflation data is also due on Wednesday.

Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Macron, Mansoor Mohi, Uddin, Ryan Brandham, Jerome Powell, Marc Chandler, Sterling Organizations: European Union, Federal Reserve, Bank Of Singapore, European Central Bank, Reuters, North America, Validus Risk, Bannockburn Global, The Bank of Japan Locations: European, Asia, France's, U.S, ., Bannockburn, New York

☆ Buy Walmart stock for 21% upside as the company is positioned to weather a consumer slowdown later this year, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan upgraded Walmart to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' and raised its price target to $81. "The stock adds a strong balance of defense and offense on both the top and bottom lines in a soft consumer backdrop," JPMorgan said. AdvertisementWalmart stock is trading at record highs, but JPMorgan thinks it's still a great buy for investors. According to the bank, Walmart can play both offense and defense when it comes to growing its business during uncertain times. AdvertisementBut perhaps most important to Walmart is its growing profits from "alternative profit pools," which include its third-party fulfillment business, Walmart+ subscription, and growing advertising business.

Persons: —, it's, Christopher Horvers, Horvers, Horver Organizations: JPMorgan, Walmart, Service, Wall

☆ Stocks are about to hit a 'wall of money' that will drive the market to record highs in July, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A record $7.3 trillion in money market funds could soon be reinvested elsewhere, according to Goldman Sachs. AdvertisementA "wall of money" is headed for the stock market this summer and will drive equities to record highs, according to a recent note from Goldman Sachs' trading desk. Goldman Sachs managing director Scott Rubner highlighted in the note that a record $7.3 trillion is sitting in money market funds, and a large chunk of that is poised to flow into stocks. AdvertisementIf the Fed cuts rates, then the cash yield on money market funds should drop from its current level of about 5%. AdvertisementWith stocks already trading at records, the gains Rubner expects would send the stock market to fresh highs.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, seasonals, —, Scott Rubner, Rubner, NDX Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq

☆ Dollar steady ahead of inflation data, yen wobbles
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The dollar was stable on Wednesday on wagers the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates until later this year ahead of crucial inflation readings this week, while the yen drifted to its weakest in four weeks. Market focus this week will be on a slew of inflation reports, with German inflation data due on Wednesday and the wider euro zone's reading on Friday. Market focus this week will be on a slew of inflation reports, with German inflation data due on Wednesday and the wider euro zone's reading on Friday. The pound was 0.13% higher at 200.68 yen, the strongest since August 2008, while the euro touched a one-month high of 170.795 yen earlier in the session. The yen, which is sensitive to Treasury yields, is down 10% for the year against the dollar but may yet scrape a monthly gain in May.

Persons: Sterling, Christopher Wong, Prashant Newnaha Organizations: U.S, Australian, FX, TD Securities Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Asia

☆ Dollar holds firm as traders trim U.S. rate cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"The carry of holding dollars is far juicier," he said, while policymakers' rhetoric has also made traders nervous about inflation and the risk rate cuts would be distant or small. Traders have pushed out the timing of the first Fed rate cut to December. Thursday's business surveys from S&P Global supported the conviction among many traders that the Fed may keep rates higher for longer. But not for traders who are positioned for Fed cuts. Rates markets still price a near 90% chance the ECB cuts rates next month.

Persons: Martin Whetton, Matt Simpson, Sterling, Christopher Waller Organizations: U.S, Westpac, Federal, Traders, P Global, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Locations: Sydney

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