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☆ US weekly jobless claims fall; tight labor market underpinning economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The labor market is only slowing at the margin, with job gains in July being the second-smallest since December 2020. Labor market strength, excess savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic and greater credit card usage to fund purchases have kept a recession at bay. Some economists saw the slight elevation as indicating a small margin of slack in the job market. The Philadelphia Fed’s business conditions index increased to a reading of 12.0 this month from -13.5 in July. A survey this week from the New York Fed showed business conditions in the “Empire State” remained depressed in August.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, ”, Christopher Rupkey, Jerome Powell’s, Jeffrey Roach, Bill Adams, Daniel Silver Organizations: WASHINGTON, REUTERS, Federal, Labor Department, Reuters, Treasury, Conference, Labor, LPL Financial, Conference Board, Comerica Bank, Philadelphia Fed, New York Fed, JPMorgan Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Ohio, California, Texas , Michigan , New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Charlotte , North Carolina, Dallas, New Jersey, Delaware, Philadelphia, “

☆ Strong services costs lift US producer prices; inflation expectations dip
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some said the downgrade to June's data meant the rise in the PPI last month was in line with expectations. In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 0.8% after gaining 0.2% in June, boosted by a lower base of comparison last year. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices were unchanged last month after falling 0.2% in June. In the 12 months through July, the so-called core PPI increased 2.7%, matching June's rise. As with all the July inflation data, the pick-up in the annual core PCE rate is due to unfavorable base effects.

Persons: Bill Adams, Will Compernolle, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Consumers, University of, CPI, Fed, Thomson Locations: August WASHINGTON, Dallas, U.S, New York, disinflation

☆ Following CPI report, the market has locked in on no more rate hikes from the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The market has its mind made up: July's tame inflation reading means no more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The "patience" reference goes to whether policymakers will be satisfied that inflation will come back to normal without any further rate increases, or if additional tightening is necessary. Following Thursday's release of the consumer price index , which showed a 12-month inflation rate of 3.2%, markets upped their bets that the Fed is staying put. The chance of any additional rate increases also declined, dropping to 27.3% for November and 24.1% for December, as of about 1:30 p.m. Thus, there was some caution from the CPI internals, and a stock market rally cooled Thursday afternoon as Wall Street digested the report.

Persons: Quincy Krosby, Bill Adams, Rick Rieder, Tom Lee, Bradley Saunders Organizations: Federal, LPL, of Labor Statistics, Fed, Comerica Bank, Market Committee, Capital Economics Locations: BlackRock

☆ US labor market resilient; productivity rebounds in second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Other data from the Labor Department on Thursday showed a marked slowdown in labor costs in the second quarter, thanks to a sharp rebound in worker productivity. That added to reports last month showing a significant moderation in annual inflation in June as well as wage growth in the second quarter. Reuters GraphicsWorkers were more productive in the second quarter, which helped to curb growth in labor costs. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 3.7% annualized rate in the second quarter after declining at a 1.2% pace in the January-March quarter, the Labor Department said in a third report. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - rose at a 1.6% rate in the second quarter.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Bill Adams, Nonfarm payrolls, Sarah House, Lucia Mutikani, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Comerica Bank, Labor, The Institute for Supply Management, Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Workers, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Dallas, California, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina

☆ The US economy is surging
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Real gross domestic product, or real GDP, grew at an annualized rate of 2.4%. That advance estimate for the second quarter beat the 1.8% increase expected. A recent GDP preview from Gregory Daco, chief economist of EY, also highlighted strength in the US economy and what it may mean. "Still, the economy continues to face significant headwinds from persistently elevated prices and costs, tightening credit conditions and rising interest rates. That's also much higher than the 3.2% seen in the second quarter of 2022.

Persons: Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, Powell, Gregory Daco, Daco, That's Organizations: Service, BEA, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank's, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US producer inflation muted; labor market still tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

That was the smallest year-on-year gain since August 2020 and followed a 0.9% increase in May. CORE INFLATION SLOWINGExcluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices fell 0.2% last month after climbing 0.1% in May. In the 12 months through June, the core PPI advanced 2.6%. That was the smallest year-on-year gain since February 2021 and followed a 2.8% increase in May. While inflation is slowing, the labor market remains tight.

Persons: Bill Adams, Jeffrey Roach, Christopher Rupkey, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Financial, Services, Wholesale, Fed, Energy, LPL Financial, Treasury, CPI, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Dallas, Charlotte , North Carolina, Stocks, New York

☆ Inflation fever is finally breaking. The Fed’s soft landing may be in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But I can’t help imagine him quietly fist-pumping the moment he got wind of the latest inflation data. For context, a year ago the CPI peaked at 9.1% — the worst inflation in more than 40 years. After a punishing stretch of rising prices, “the fever is breaking,” wrote Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. In other words, the Fed may actually pull off the “soft landing” — lowering inflation without tanking the economy — that few believed was doable even six months ago. “The odds of achieving a soft landing just went up drastically,” Dan Alpert, managing director of Westwood Capital, told me.

Persons: CNN Business ’, Jerome Powell, he’d, Jay won’t, ”, Bill Adams, Jay Powell, “ We’ve, Lael Brainard, Joe Biden’s, “, Brainard, hadn’t, ” Dan Alpert, “ I’m, Jamie Dimon, you’ll Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Consumer, Comerica Bank, Fed, Westwood Capital, JPMorgan Chase Locations: New York

☆ The economy is doing exactly what we need to avoid a recession and keep booming
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Recent data reveals inflation is cooling, the labor market is slowing, and a recession may not come after all. Inflation data released Wednesday showed that inflation is coming down fast. The Fed may be pleased by this data, though a rate hike may still be on the table later this month. Other measures also show that the job market is still very healthy. The Fed may be happy to see slower job growth and the prime-age labor force participation rate rising, Bunker said.

Persons: doesn't, Julia Pollak, Nick Bunker, Bunker, Jerome Powell, Bill Adams, Pollak, " Pollak, Powell Organizations: Service, Labor, Survey, North America, Federal, Consumer, CPI, National Federation of Independent Business, Congress, Fed, Comerica Bank, Comerica Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US economic growth expanded much faster in the first quarter than previously estimated
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US economy expanded at a much faster pace in the first three months of the year than previously estimated, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose by an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter, up from the second estimate of 1.3%. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic output and the latest estimate incorporated data from the Commerce Department’s Quarterly Services Survey. The revised trade flows contributed positively to GDP, with exports rising more than previously estimated while imports were revised down. And consumers might spend a bit more as the still try to recoup lost time or secure purchases they previously weren’t able to.

Persons: —, ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst & Young, “, Jerome Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department’s Quarterly Services Survey, Ernst &, Fed, “ Consumers, Comerica Bank, CNN Locations: Washington

☆ Consumers feel better/worse about inflation, economy's direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —Americans are feeling upbeat about inflation and the economy, according to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey released Friday. Consumers’ inflation expectations for the year ahead retreated for the second straight month, declining to 3.3% early this month from 4.2% in May. That’s good news for the Federal Reserve, which closely watches sentiment surveys to gauge the expectations consumers and businesses have for price hikes. “The sharp drop of short-term consumer inflation expectations points to another slowdown in the June CPI report, which will be out before the Fed’s next decision,” wrote Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an analyst note. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his news conference this week that inflation expectations remain in check.

Persons: ”, Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, That’s, Christopher Waller Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan’s, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Norway

☆ Dollar falls after weak services data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Monday on news that the U.S. services sector barely grew in May as new orders slowed, ending an initial rally sparked by strong jobs growth. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services industry, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The dollar index fell to 104.00, down 0.13% on the day, after climbing as high as 104.40. The Aussie dollar edged higher before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is due to announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. "We expect the RBA to hike tomorrow and guide for more, leading to a ~25-bp upgrade to terminal rate pricing and a sharp AUD rally."

Persons: Bill Adams, Brian Daingerfield, Philip Jefferson, Daingerfield, Wells, Erik Nelson, Jack Boswell, Iain Withers, Kirsten Donovan, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Institute for Supply Management, Reuters, Comerica Bank, Reserve, NatWest Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Stamford , Connecticut, U.S, London

☆ Slower US job, wage gains expected in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Nevertheless, the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to still show the labor market remaining tight. PROGRESS ON INFLATIONBut the overall labor market remains upbeat, with first time applications for state unemployment benefits hovering at very low levels. Slowing wage inflation is corroborated by other measures like the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker, which has come off its peaks. Financial markets see a nearly 70% chance of the Fed keeping its policy rate unchanged at its June 13-14 meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the employment report, did not record the work stoppage in its May strike report.

Persons: Bill Adams, Brian Bethune, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Comerica Bank, Data, Labor Department, Atlanta, Boston College, Fed, Writers Guild of America, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: y WASHINGTON, Dallas, New York

What to watch in today’s jobs reportMarket futures are looking up today after the Senate approved the bipartisan debt limit deal, averting a national fiscal crisis. All eyes will be on the May jobs report. Hiring has slowed in recent months, but the unemployment rate still stands at a 53-year low despite a wave of layoffs in the technology, media and financial sectors. Analysts say the labor market over all appears to be returning to its prepandemic state. “The Great Resignation is over, with quits and hiring slowing dramatically and layoffs higher than the last few years of the 2010s,” Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote to clients.

Persons: ” Bill Adams Organizations: Analysts, Comerica Bank Locations: U.S

☆ US home prices just jumped for the second-straight month, suggesting the housing downturn could be over. Here are the 6 cities where prices are rising the fastest.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the 20-city version of the index, all 20 of the cities saw home prices rise month-over-month. "That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months." "A shortage of listings, plentiful jobs, and strong wage growth are largely offsetting the headwind to housing from high mortgage rates," Adams told Insider. Their reasons include high mortgage rates, historically low affordability, and a potential recession. Below, we've listed in descending order the six cities in the Case-Shiller 20-city index that posted month-over-month growth of at least 2%.

Persons: Craig J, Lazzara, Bill Adams, Adams, Suisse's Ray Farris, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Ian Shepherdson, American Enterprise Institute's Desmond Lachman, Skylar Olsen Organizations: Home, NSA, Redfin, Comerica Bank, American Enterprise Locations: Denver, Detroit, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Minneapolis, West Coast, Miami , Florida, Tampa , Florida, Charlotte, North Carolina

☆ US consumer spending appears solid early in second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services rebounded 0.7% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for March was revised slightly down to show these so-called core retail sales slipping 0.4% instead of 0.3% as previously reported. Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Economists estimated that core retail sales adjusted for inflation rose by about 0.6% in April. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, rose 0.6%.

☆ American consumers are growing worried about a US debt default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

“If policymakers fail to resolve the debt ceiling crisis, these dismal views over the economy will exacerbate the dire economic consequences of default.”The latest survey showed that the university’s consumer-sentiment index fell by 9% in May. Monthly household spending growth tumbled to 5.4% from a revised 7.1% in December, according to the New York Fed’s Household Spending Survey, which is fielded every four months. Michigan’s report showed US household spending was flat in March from the prior month, after limping just 0.1% in February. Stack on top of that the Federal Reserve’s punishing interest-rate increases and still-high inflation, and consumers might just tap out. The Conference Board’s sentiment survey showed that consumer confidence worsened in April as Americans became more worried about the jobs market.

☆ Traders raise the chances for a Fed rate cut following April inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Still, it was enough for traders to raise the chances of a September rate cut to near 80%, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch tracker of prices in the fed funds futures market. In fact, the October fed funds contract implied a policy rate of 4.84%, or nearly a full quarter point below the current effective rate of 5.08%. Among Wall Street analysts and economists, though, the case for a rate cut remains shaky. "I do not see in my baseline forecast any reason to cut interest rates this year." The central bank raised its fed funds rate last week by a quarter point, to 5.0-5.25%, its 10th increase since March, 2022.

☆ Here are 5 things stock market investors should watch for with volatility set to ramp up through year-end
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Fed on Wednesday issued its 10th straight interest rate increase to a near 20-year high of 5%-5.25%. The latest move comes as the US bond market flashes recession warnings as steeper borrowing costs put pressure on the economy. Comerica Wealth Management2. Comerica Wealth Management4. But Comerica Wealth said it sees the signal from corporate bonds as less ominous.

☆ Key Fed meeting and jobs data are ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

In the spotlight are the Federal Reserve’s May meeting and the April jobs report. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will likely face questions about credit conditions, in addition to the central bank’s inflation strategy. What’s at stake with the April jobs report: Economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ April jobs print to show slower employment growth last month and a rising unemployment rate. Wednesday: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference and April ADP private payroll report. Friday: April jobs report and March consumer credit.

☆ US consumer spending flattens; core inflation still hot
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The unchanged reading in consumer spending last month, reported by the Commerce Department, followed a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in February. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was previously reported to have increased 0.2% in February. Last month's flat reading in consumer spending set consumption and the overall economy on a lower growth path in the second quarter. Consumer spending is plateauing likely as Americans become more averse to higher prices. The so-called core PCE price index gained 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in March after rising 4.7% in February.

☆ US economy still churning out jobs at brisk clip; wage pressures subsiding
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Labor market tightness is drawing more people into the workforce, with 480,000 entrants last month, which could help to further restrain wage growth. The unemployment rate for Blacks dropped to an all-time low of 5.0%. Economists expect the labor market to loosen up considerably starting in the second quarter as companies respond more to slowing demand caused by the higher borrowing costs. Details of the household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived were upbeat. The employment-to-population ratio, viewed as a measure of an economy's ability to create employment, increased to 60.4% from 60.2% in the prior month.

☆ The housing market is a total paradox now, and these recent mixed signals are adding to the confusion
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Housing indicators have sent mixed signals, muddying the picture on where the market is headed. Regional differences have also been playing a considerable role in the data. Meanwhile, Adams added that national averages can obscure stark regional differences, which have varied significantly, potentially causing diverging viewpoints. Here are some recent mixed signals:The US housing market is crashing and soaring at the same timeThe regional divide in the housing market is exemplified in this east-west split. "Existing-home sales, pending contracts and new-home construction pending contracts have turned the corner and climbed for the past three months."

That would come after the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to follow through with a 50 basis point rise it pre-announced in February, prioritizing sticky inflation. Only five respondents in the latest Fed poll expected a pause, including four primary dealers, with only one bank, Nomura, expecting a 25 basis point cut. "The past week's financial turmoil will give the Fed some misgivings about pushing rates much higher," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. Mericle expects more hikes however, with a peak rate of 5.25%-5.50% in Q3, higher than the poll median. Meanwhile the labor market is showing few signs of weakness, with unemployment rate forecasts broadly lower compared with last month's poll.

☆ Silicon Valley Bank and inflation complicate the Fed’s next move
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Everyday now we've been talking about Silicon Valley Bank — SVB — and I've had to catch myself several times from saying SBF — Sam Bankman-Fried — the guy behind the other big financial collapse in recent months. A) No rate hike at allB) 25 basis pointsC) 50 basis pointsTweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know. Bank stocks are rising again as nerves calm — though SVB-driven fears are still niggling. Bank of America picked out a batch of financial stocks that offer upside right now amid the chaos. The token soared 15% as the February CPI print fueled more speculation for a smaller rate hike.

☆ Dow jumps 387 points as US stocks snap weekly losing streak after rate fears ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks climbed higher on Friday, snapping a weekly losing streak. Fears of a move back to bigger rate hikes were eased as traders digested comments from Fed officials. All three indices ended the day higher, with the Dow gaining almost 400 points to break a four-week streak of losses. "The solid ISM survey and resilience to high interest rates will reinforce the Fed's resolve that interest rates should continue to move higher. "The Fed wants to tread lightly to minimize the risk that they overshoot and cause an unnecessarily severe downturn."

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