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☆ Europe’s shrinking stash heralds economic trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

But the interest they earned on their assets increased from 16 billion euros to 66 billion euros in the same period. As a result, euro zone firms’ net interest was negative 19 billion euros in the second quarter of 2023. These financial gains may have helped euro zone growth. A further 700 billion euros matures in 2026. Homeowners with mortgages, which account for around 27% of euro zone households, are yet to feel the brunt of higher rates.

Persons: That’s, Mathieu Savary, Gross, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ECB, BCA Research, Oxford Economics, International Monetary Fund, Oxford, IMF, Thomson Locations: Oxford, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, United States, China

☆ Dollar bounces after sharp selloff, weak data hurts euro
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. "If you look at the percentage of currencies that have been down versus the dollar over the last 26 weeks, it was approaching 100%, and data also showed very long dollar positioning ... Traders are now pricing in only a slim chance of a further interest rate increase by the Fed and see three 25-basis-point rate cuts by next November. The euro fell 0.20% to $1.0695 after data showed a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Chester Ntonifor, Chandler, Powell, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Fiona Cincotta, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Paul Simao, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Australian, greenback, Fed, Bannockburn Global, BCA Research, Traders, . Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, PMI, Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, U.S, Bannockburn, New York, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar bounces after sharp selloff, euro dented by weak data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. The dollar index which tracks the U.S. unit against six main peers, was up 0.37% at 105.64. If that continues, he added, attention will turn to how long to keep interest rates at current levels. The euro fell 0.37% to $1.0677 after data showed a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Marc Chandler, Chester Ntonifor, Chandler, Powell, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Fiona Cincotta, Carol Kong, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Australian, Fed, Bannockburn Global, BCA Research, Traders, Minneapolis, . Chicago Fed, PMI, Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bannockburn, New York, Tokyo, London, Singapore

Tuesday data showing a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September contributed to the euro's weakness, said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial market analyst at City Index. The euro, like most other currencies, gained sharply on the dollar last week as a series of data points - most notably U.S. data from Friday showing job growth slowed in October - sent the U.S. unit lower. The dollar fell 1.4% last week, its steepest decline since mid-July, a sharp reversal after a recent run higher. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Monday the U.S. central bank likely has more work ahead to control inflation. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Fiona Cincotta, Chester Ntonifor, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Carol Kong, Kong, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Sam Holmes, Miral Fahmy, Edmund Klamann, Kim Coghill, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, PMI, Federal, Treasury, BCA Research, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, U.S, Bank, Australian, Commonwealth Bank of, Aussie, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, LONDON, U.S, Australia, Tokyo, Singapore, London

Market-churning economic news is lacking this week, but that doesn’t mean Wall Street and the economy can rest easy. The political news heats up, with Donald Trump set to testify in his civil fraud trial in New York. And elections take place across the country on Tuesday that could show where the country stands politically one year out from the 2024 election. Meanwhile, a softer-than-expected jobs report on Friday had some analysts saying the economy was headed for a downturn. “The unemployment rate rose just a tenth to 3.9% in October versus September which the BLS called little changed,” he said.

Persons: Donald Trump, State Anthony Blinken, Bond, ”, Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, ” Chris Rupkey, Powell, ” Powell, “ Organizations: GOP, Hamas, State, West Bank, Federal Reserve, ZipRecruiter, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, BCA Research Locations: New York, Miami, Israel, Iraq, Turkey, Washington

☆ Euro zone inflation drops to two-year low in October; economy shrinks in third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

(Photo by Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP) (Photo by KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images)Inflation across the euro zone dropped to a two-year low of 2.9% in October, according to preliminary data released Tuesday, down from 4.3% the previous month and below a consensus estimate of 3.1% from a Reuters poll of economists. The agency also revealed Tuesday that the euro zone economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter, according to flash estimates, below consensus estimates for GDP to be unchanged from the previous quarter. The ECB expects the euro zone economy to grow by just 0.7% this year, by 1% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. The euro zone has been grappling with high inflation for the past 18 months, with the consumer price index peaking at 10.6% in October 2022. The ECB needs to see wage inflation slowing and this could take a further six months," he added.

Persons: Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV, KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV, Mathieu Savary, Mark Wall Organizations: Getty, European Union, Eurostat, ECB, European Central Bank, Council, BCA Research, Deutsche Bank Research Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, AFP, Europe's, Latvia, Belgium, Spain, Ireland, Austria, Israel, European

☆ America’s Debt Crisis Burns While Congress Fiddles
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +9 min

Last month, the Penn Wharton Budget Model from the University of Pennsylvania came out with an analysis of the debt crisis entitled “When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels?”Their answer? The concern is that punting the problem into the future, continuing to raise debt even as interest rates rise further or hold at higher levels for longer, the debt will grow even faster in a “snowball” scenario. Similar proposals have been offered over the years but at the same time they seem to lack political support – indeed, Republicans have recently voiced the idea of cutting Social Security. The debt crisis is rapidly worsening at a time when the bond market is having its own set of problems. A recent government auction of debt, an occurrence that is becoming more common as the U.S. borrows more, saw weak demand.

Persons: Dick Cheney, Richard Neal, Democrats –, Blu Putnam, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Jerome Powell, ”, Gene Steuerle, Richard B, Fisher, probity, Kevin McCarthy, Kent Smetters, Boettner, Smetters, Richard Robis, Donald Trump Organizations: Capitol, Democratic, Massachusetts, The New York Times, Federal Reserve, Partisans, Democrats, Fed, CME Group, Social Security, Medicare, Urban Institute, California Rep, Penn Wharton Budget, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wharton, Social, Republicans, Treasury, Hamas, BCA Research, White House Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Japan, Israel

With two wars, a rising price of oil and a shaky bond market, there is plenty of worry for the markets and economists this week, including a slew of corporate earnings reports and data on the state of the housing market and retail spending. Meanwhile, Russia has been pressing its invasion of Ukraine that is now a year and a half old. Last week ended with a surprise increase in consumer’s expectations of inflation in the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey. Where new home construction a few months ago was holding up the housing market, now it has slumped amid mortgage rates that have brushed 8%. The firm published its monthly economic outlook last week and did not include any more Fed rate hikes in the current cycle.

Persons: “, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Sam Bullard Organizations: Hamas, University of, “, BCA Research, ”, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, National Association of Realtors, Economic, of New, Wells Locations: East, Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, Palestinian, U.S, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, of New York

☆ UK economy grew 0.2% in August, propped up by services sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.K. gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in August, the Office for National Statistics estimated Thursday, partially recovering from a downwardly revised 0.6% contraction in July. "It does not change the outlook for the Bank of England and confirms that the Bank Rate does not have much upside from here, but will remain at current levels for an extended period." The Bank of England last month ended a run of 14 consecutive interest rate hikes after data showed inflation was running below expectations. "The UK has grown faster than France and Germany since the pandemic and today's data shows the economy is more resilient than expected," U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said Thursday. U.K. headline inflation dipped to an annual 6.7% in August, below expectations but still well above the Bank's 2% target.

Persons: Mathieu Savary, Jeremy Hunt, Thiru Organizations: Citibank, HSBC, National Statistics, BCA Research, Bank of England, of England, Bank, Finance, Institute of Chartered Accountants, Wales, Bank of England's Locations: Wharf, London, United Kingdom, U.K, European, France, Germany, England

☆ Capitalize on once-in-a-generation opportunities in the bond market by making these 5 moves now, according to 6 leading fixed income strategists
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Yahoo FinanceHowever, six leading fixed income investors are confident that the pain won't last much longer. Michele continued: "I've been doing this since 1981, so I've seen a decade of double-digit bond yields with disinflation. Alex Petrone, the director of fixed income at Rockefeller Asset Management, agreed that it's too soon to write off a recession. Nailing timing helps maximize returns, though fixed income experts said that's difficult because the Fed's policy decisions are unpredictable. Buying Treasuries and municipal coupons on both the long and short ends of the curve are how she recommends playing fixed income.

Persons: Jonathan Mondillo, you've, Bob Michele, Michele, I've, we'll, Federal Reserve —, Robert Robis, Robis, Alex Petrone, it's, Petrone, Mary Daly, David Schiffman, Roger Aliaga, Diaz, Aliaga, Mondillo, Schiffman Organizations: Yahoo Finance, JPMorgan Asset Management, isn't, Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Rockefeller Asset Management, Fed, San Francisco Fed, Aquila Investment Management, Vanguard's Investment, Investment Locations: Scotland, bottoming, Abrdn, Aquila, Treasuries, CCC

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Surging Treasury yields upend stock market's "bond proxies"
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Such areas are often referred to as "bond proxies" for their strong, stable dividends, which over the past decade have usually exceeded Treasury yields. But surging bond yields have dulled the appeal of bond proxies. As a result, shares of bond proxies have taken an outsize hit in recent weeks. The S&P 500 utilities sector (.SPLRCU) has tumbled 13% since last month’s Fed meeting. While the sector is expected to see stronger growth than the overall S&P 500 in the third and fourth quarters, its projected 8.6% increase in 2024 lags the expected 12% rise for the overall S&P 500, according to LSEG IBES.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Irene Tunkel, LSEG, James Ragan, Davidson, Ragan, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Fed, Staples, AT, Verizon, Investors, BCA Research, Reuters Graphics, Friday's, U.S, sector's, Nextera Energy, Nextera Energy Partners, KeyBanc, Markets, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Philadelphia, VandaTrack

That was close, but in the end Congress found a way to avert a government shutdown. “That said, we still look for the gradual deceleration in labor market conditions to continue in the coming months,” Bullard added. Collectively, the three reports will show whether the labor market is slowing – and by just how much. The week will also reveal whether the markets have settled down following the aversion of a government shutdown and concern over rising interest rates in the wake of the Fed’s pause. “The continuation of the disinflation process suggests that the Fed may not need to hike interest rates again this cycle.”

Persons: ” Sam Bullard, “, ” Bullard, Jerome Powell – Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wells, Labor Department, Stock, BCA Research Locations: August’s, payrolls, Washington

Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in September, indicating Americans are tentative about the direction of the economy, according to the latest survey-based index from the University of Michigan. The overall consumer sentiment index, released on Friday, retreated to 67.7 from 69.5 in August, while the current conditions assessment dropped to 69.8 from 75.7 and the forward-looking expectations index increased to 66.3 from 65.5. “Sentiment this month was characterized by divergent movements across index components and across demographic groups with little net change from last month. There was improvement in how consumers see inflation going forward. That means workers are keeping just ahead of inflation, although prices for necessities such as groceries and gasoline have increased.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, “, ” Hsu, ” Bernard Baumohl, Baumohl, “ They’re, Joe Biden, – Ford, Peter Berezin Organizations: University of Michigan, Consumers, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Economic Outlook, Supreme, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Senate, Fed, BCA Research, Global Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S

Wholesale inflation surged 0.7% in August, largely due to a spike in energy costs, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The producer price index, a measure of what businesses pay for their supplies, rose 1.6% for the year. The core PPI, excluding energy and food costs, rose 0.3% for the month and 3% for the year, above estimates for increases of 0.2% and 2.2%. The overall August increase is the largest since a 0.9% increase in June of 2022, when inflation began rising sharply, and was fueled heavily by a 10.5% increase in energy prices. On Wednesday, the government said the consumer price index rose 0.6% in August and 3.7% for the year.

Persons: “, ” Julia Pollak, ” Organizations: Labor Department, Analysts, PPI, Research, CPI, Federal

A holiday-shortened week often provides markets and economists a moment to reflect. That’s especially the case after Labor Day, a date that signifies the end of the summer. Data last week reinforced the narrative of a slowing labor market and inflation that has cooled off but not quite as much as the Federal Reserve would like. A handful of Fed governors will speak this week ahead of the central bank’s next meeting in two weeks. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs on Tuesday lowered the odds of a recession within the next 12 months to 15% from 20% previously, citing the favorable inflation data, the softening labor market and continued growth in incomes.

Persons: “, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Peter G, Peterson Organizations: Labor, Federal, BCA Research, White

☆ These ETFs give investors a way to bet on the next wave of space exploration — and commercialization
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-03 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Russell and Tunkel pointed to falling launch costs, continued demand for satellites and India's recent moon landing as reasons to be excited about the future for the space industry. The most successful of these funds, both by total assets and performance this year, is Cathy Wood's Ark Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX) . The ARK fund takes a broad approach to finding space stocks. The Ark fund even has some stocks that are only tangentially related to space, at least for now, like Amazon and Google-parent Alphabet . For investors looking for a more narrow approach, BCA described the Procure Space ETF (UFO) as the "purest play on space exploration."

Persons: Guy Russell, Irene Tunkel, Russell, Tunkel, Cathy Wood's, Trimble, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BCA Research, Innovation, Google, BCA, SES, Rocket Locations: Luxembourg

Equities trading was choppy on Wednesday after the Fed signaled it could follow its June pause with two more rate increases this year. But by Thursday afternoon the S&P 500 .SPX and the Nasdaq had rallied to 14-month highs on upbeat economic data. Higher jobless claims helped fuel bets that the Fed would not follow through with more rate hikes. "It's almost like a sweet spot," Tunkel said, also pointing to Chinese data boosting energy stocks and oil prices. Gold prices rose from a three-month low as the dollar and bond yields fell after U.S. economic data, although worries over more Fed rate hikes capped gains.

Persons: Irene Tunkel, Tunkel, Brendan McDermid, Sterling, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Marc Jones, Tom Westbrook, Mark Potter, Alexander Smith, Richard Chang Organizations: LONDON, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, BCA Research, Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York City, China, New York, London, Singapore

☆ Why is the US dollar so strong again?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, May 18 (Reuters) - If investors agree on one thing this year, it's that the dollar is going to fall. The go-to explanation of currency strategists right now is the debt-ceiling debacle is boosting the dollar. Traders currently expect the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates sharply later this year as a recession takes hold, yet Tan is skeptical. If the dollar rises slightly, some traders may be forced to close out their short positions by buying the dollar, which then boosts its value. But a simple technical indicator is that it is very atypical for you to have a straight-line decline in the dollar."

☆ Sell any bounce in the banks, warns BCA Research
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

With unprecedented volatility in the market this week, thanks to the recent U.S. bank closures and fear of contagion spreading across Europe, the BCA Research team is doubtful banks can stay profitable in the foreseeable future. The KBW Regional Banking Index is higher by just 0.2% Thursday. There also could be an opportunity for investors to use potential bounces to underweight the industry, she added. KBWR 1D mountain KBWR Regional Bank index "We believe that this remains the most prudent course of action, selling banking exposure into a potential bounce," she wrote. "To capture the best exit point, we are putting banks on a downgrade watch from current neutral position."

☆ Analysis: U.S. bank loan plan provides Fed rate hike path amid SVB fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Banks can use eligible government securities on their books like Treasuries and agency mortgage backed-debt to guarantee the loans. By comparison, a one-year loan from a Federal Home Loan Bank, a government state enterprise that provides low-cost lending to regional banks, is around 5.4%, according to market participants. In essence, the bank lending program will allow the Fed to keep raising rates." U.S. banks had raised their holdings of government securities during periods of ultra-low interest rates to defend falling interest net margins. Major banks led by Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Barclays Bank (BARC.L) have called for a pause from the Fed next week.

March 6 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 made little progress on Monday, closing slightly higher than its session low as U.S. Treasury yields pulled higher with investors braced for this week's testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the February jobs report. Rising bond yields tend to weigh on equity valuations, particularly those of growth and technology stocks, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows. "People are worried about the jobs number and the economic data because they're worried about what the Fed will do. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 2.72 points, or 0.07%, to end at 4,048.36 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 12.59 points, or 0.11%, to 11,676.41. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer.

Rising bond yields tend to weigh on equity valuations, particularly those of growth and technology stocks, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows. "People are worried about the jobs number and the economic data because they're worried about what the Fed will do. And with potential Fed rate hikes their key concern, Monday's data had already dampened investor enthusiasm, said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 85 new highs and 92 new lows.

☆ Resilient stock market finds support at just the right time, preserving uptrend
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Did the "soft landing" occur six months ago, at least in market terms? The leadership profile speaks, perhaps, to an elongated economic and Fed tightening cycle and suggests where within a notably bifurcated market investors should migrate. For one thing, the stock market surely can be prone to misapprehending the next macro turn and can overshoot reality in the short term. BCA Research here shows the sobering harmony in the current market trajectory and that of the early-2000s post-tech-bubble bear market. We can note, though, that the S & P 500 back then never spent as much as a month above its 200-day moving average as it has this year.

☆ Stock futures fall as Dow tries to rebound from its third-straight weekly decline: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders on the floor of the NYSEU.S. stock futures fell Monday night following a week during which higher interest rates kept investor sentiment in check. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped 102 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures also dipped 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures pulled back by 0.1%. The Dow fell 0.1% last week, marking its third straight weekly decline. Traders are worried that stubborn inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer — which could tip the economy into a recession.

☆ Here's the bear case for artificial intelligence
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Now that ChatGPT unleashed a firestorm of interest in artificial intelligence investing, it may be time to urge some calm for investors. AI YTD mountain AI software provider C3.ai has seen its stock more than doubled as investors look to hop on the artificial intelligence trend. Here's the bear case for artificial intelligence. That's about seven times more than the cost to run a typical Google search, which Nowak estimated to be $0.003, or not even half of one cent. Separately, the lack of proper citation from generative AI could mean future lawsuits for AI companies.

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