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SYDNEY, March 28 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales levelled off in February after wild swings around the year-end holidays, suggesting consumers are reining in spending in the face of higher living costs and rising interest rates. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose just 0.2% in February, compared to a revised 1.8% rise in January. Sales of A$35.14 billion ($23.48 billion) were 6.4% higher than a year earlier. The figure beat median forecasts of a 0.1% rise, pushing the local dollar higher to $0.6674 , up 0.4% for the day. Australia employment rebounded strongly in February, the jobless rate eased back to near 50-year lows, and business conditions remained resilient.
Australia retail sales growth slows to 0.2% in February
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
SYDNEY, March 28 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales eked out a meagre gain in February after wild swings around year-end holidays, indicating shoppers are reining in spending in the face of higher costs of living and rising interest rates. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.2% in February from January, when they picked up a revised 1.8%. Sales of A$35.14 billion ($23.42 billion) were 6.4% higher than a year earlier. The result was just a touch above median forecasts of a rise of 0.1%. ($1 = 1.5004 Australian dollars)Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SYDNEY, March 16 (Reuters) - Australia employment rebounded strongly in February after two months of declines, while the jobless rate fell back to near 50-year lows, suggesting the country's labour market remained tight amid a slew of interest rate hikes by the central bank. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Thursday that net employment rose 64,600 in February from January, when they fell a revised 10,900. The jobless rate dropped to 3.5%, from 3.7%, when analysts had looked for a dip to 3.6%, while hours worked jumped by 3.9% in another signal of resilience. Full-time employment soared by 74,900 jobs in February, compared with a drop of 43,300 the previous month. That prompted investors to price out any chance of another rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Australia retail sales rebound in Jan, but pulse slows
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SYDNEY, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales rebounded in January after a surprise plunge in December that owed much to changing spending habits, though the underlining pulse was facing headwinds from high inflation and rising interest rates. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 1.9% in January from December, when they dived 4.0%. Government spending also added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, while drags are seen coming from inventories, housing and consumer spending on goods. "It's clear that high inflation and rising interest rates are weighing on consumer spending," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for BIS Oxford Economics. "With spending still rebalancing toward services and weaker fundamentals for consumption growth, we expect retail sales growth will be quite patchy over 2023."
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics out on Wednesday showed its wage price index rose 0.8% in the December quarter from the previous quarter, under forecasts of a 1.0% increase. Markets had been braced for an upside surprise and quickly reacted by pushing the Australian dollar down 20 ticks to $0.6847 , while futures scaled back slightly the likely future peak for interest rates. As a result, markets had wagered interest rates could peak as high as 4.35%, but that tempered toward 4.1% following the wages news. The RBA had forecast wage growth of 3.5% for last quarter, so the actual outcome should be a pleasant surprise. "Wage growth was weaker than the RBA had expected last quarter and we think it won’t accelerate as rapidly as the RBA anticipates," said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia Pacific economics at Capital Economics.
Australia retail sales volumes dip in Q4, price growth slows
  + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
SYDNEY, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales volumes fell for the first time in a year last quarter as shoppers trimmed spending on goods, a sign higher borrowing costs are finally working to curb spending. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed real retail sales dipped 0.2% in the December quarter to A$96.9 billion ($66.99 billion). That was still better than market forecasts of a 0.6% fall and will make a slight drag on economic growth. The central bank meets on Tuesday as is widely expected to hike rates by a quarter point to 3.35%. Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Retail sales fell 3.9% in December from November, after 11 months of consecutive gains, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data showed on Tuesday, suggesting that rate hikes so far are working as intended. "The large fall in December suggests that retail spending is slowing due to high cost-of-living pressures," said Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics. "With the impact of the 2022 rate hikes yet to be fully realised, we still expect two more hikes to be delivered in the first quarter." After the data, futures markets still priced in a hefty 85% chance the cash rate would be raised by a quarter-point next week to 3.35%. An analysis by UBS on Tuesday projects a sharp slowing in spending by those who hold "extra" cash savings to a well-below trend pace from mid-2023.
Australian inflation hits a post-1990 peak
  + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Australia's consumer price index reached the highest since 1990 for the quarter of December, 2022. The annualized figure of a rise in consumer prices backed by higher prices in food, automotive fuel, and new residential construction, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Prices rose the most for costs related to domestic and international travel, which rose by 13.3% and 7.6%, respectively. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the quarter's consumer price index to rise 7.5%, lower than the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecast of 8%. Prices of goods rose 9.5%, a slightly less dramatic print than the 9.6% from the previous quarter — the cost of services rose 5.5%, the highest since 2008.
Analysts had thought there was some chance the RBA might even pause its tightening campaign, but the sheer pace of inflation put paid to that. Price rises were broad-based with a closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, rising 1.7% in the December quarter. Costs pressures were also building in the service sector which recorded its largest annual rise since 2008, driven by holiday travel, meals out and takeaway food. "Strong demand, particularly over the Christmas holiday period, contributed to price rises for domestic holiday travel and international air fares," said Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics. With inflation pressures broadening yet further, markets moved to price in the risk of at least two more rate hikes from the RBA with swaps implying a peak above 3.60%.
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday showed net employment fell 14,600 in December from November, when it surged by a revised 58,200, and missed forecasts for an increase of 22,500. "The strong employment growth through 2022, along with high participation and low unemployment, continues to reflect a tight labour market," said Lauren Ford, head of labour statistics at the ABS. ABS data out this week showed net temporary arrivals jumped by 180,000 between July and November, the largest five-month increase on record. This includes those on skilled visas, temporary work visas and students. "It represents important progress in the alleviation of labour supply constraints which featured prominently in 2022," said Ryan Wells, an economist at Westpac.
Australian CPI inflation rebounds to annual 7.3% in Nov
  + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
SYDNEY, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Australian inflation re-accelerated in November as strong demand drove holiday costs higher and flooding pushed up vegetable prices, a sign inflationary pressures had yet to peak. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed its monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 7.3% in the year to November, entirely reversing a surprise pullback to 6.9% in October. A closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, rose at an annual pace of 5.6% in November picking up from 5.4% in October. Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday showed retail sales jumped 1.4% in November from October to a record A$35.9 billion ($24.7 billion). "High jet fuel prices combined with strong consumer demand in November pushed airfare prices up, with accommodation prices also rising," said Michelle Marquardt, ABS Head of Prices Statistics. The combination of robust consumption and still rising inflation underline the challenge facing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as it tries to cool the economy. "That underlines that interest-rate sensitive spending categories are feeling the pinch from the RBA's aggressive tightening last year," said Thieliant. ($1 = 1.4512 Australian dollars)Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SYDNEY, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Australia's economy slowed a little in the September quarter as sky-high prices and rising interest rates sapped consumer spending power, a sign aggressive policy tightening is working to cool demand. Household consumption was again the engine of growth with a rise of 1.1% in the quarter, driven by spending on travel, eating out and new motor vehicles. "The decent rise in Q3 GDP probably marks the last hurrah for Australia's economy as tighter monetary policy and falling real incomes weigh on spending," said Marcel Thieliant, a senior economist at Capital Economics. The country is still wading in cash thanks to sky-high prices for many of its resource exports. That helped nominal GDP grow a blistering 13.1% in the year to September to reach a record A$2.38 trillion ($1.59 trillion), or A$91,847 for every Australian.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed the current account had slid to a deficit of A$2.3 billion ($1.54 billion) in the July-September quarter. That was down from a surplus of A$14.7 billion in the previous quarter and far from forecasts for a A$6.2 billion surplus. "The deficit reflected a narrowing but robust trade surplus, which was offset by a record high income deficit in the September quarter," said Grace Kim, acting head of international statistics at the ABS. However, net exports still subtracted only 0.2 percentage points from growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, whereas analysts had looked for a drag of 0.6 percentage points. On the other hand, separate data out on Tuesday showed government spending had subtracted 0.2 percentage points from growth in the quarter.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed its monthly consumer price index (CPI) had risen 6.9% in the year to October, slowing from 7.3% in September. That was shock to analysts, who had looked for a rise to 7.4% or higher in October, and was a possible hint that inflation might be peaking. The RBA has expected consumer price inflation would peak at about 8% this quarter, but now that might be too pessimistic. We wouldn't read too much into the drop in the Monthly CPI Indicator in October because the figures don't cover the entire CPI basket," said Marcel Thieliant, a senior economist at Capital Economics. "Nonetheless, the figures do suggest that inflation is about to peak."
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment rose 32,200 in October from September, when they fell a revised 3,800. That came as a surprise to many analysts who had looked for a gain of only 15,000. Full-time employment jumped 47,100, bringing total job gains for the 12 months to October to a massive 762,000. That would bring the total tightening since May to 300 basis points, easily the most aggressive in modern history. Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Ana Nicolaci da CostaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Australia wages jump 1.0% in Q3, biggest gain in a decade
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Currently, it expects wage growth to plateaux around 3.9% late next year and into 2024. Another, even larger, rise for aged care workers is set to lift wages in the first quarter of next year. The private sector led the way in the September quarter with a rise of 1.2%, double that of the public sector. That lifted annual growth in private firms to 3.4%, while public jobs lagged at just 2.4% amid government controls on pay. The average size of wage increase for those jobs where wages moved was 4.3%, up from 2.9% a year before.
SYDNEY, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales posted another solid increase in September thanks to spending on food, clothing and eating out with consumption staying surprisingly resilient in the face of surging inflation and higher interest rates. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday showed retail sales rose 0.6% in September from August to a record A$35.1 billion ($22.48 billion). Markets are wagering on a quarter-point hike to 2.85%, with a one-in-five chance of a return to 50 basis point moves given inflation surprised on the high side in the third quarter. He noted the hefty 250 basis points if tightening already delivered would have had little effect on inflation in the third quarter, or even this quarter, given inflation is a lagging indicator. ($1 = 1.5615 Australian dollars)Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Australia inflation races to 32-year high, sounds rate alarm
  + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
SYDNEY, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Australian inflation raced to a 32-year high last quarter as the cost of home building and gas surged, an alarming result that will stoke pressure for a return to more aggressive rate hikes by the country's central bank. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed the consumer price index (CPI) jumped 1.8% in the September quarter, topping market forecasts of 1.6%. The annual rate shot up to 7.3%, from 6.1%, the highest since 1990 and almost three times the pace of wage growth. A closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, also climbed 1.8% in the quarter, lifting the annual pace to 6.1% and again far above forecasts of 5.6%. Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Australia has bulwark against China slowdown
  + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The country is Australia’s biggest trading partner, accounting for up to a third of its roughly A$475 billion ($303 billion) of annual exports. Its voracious demand over the past three decades helped Australia enjoy almost 30 years without a recession until the 2020 pandemic. As Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ first budget on Tuesday shows, though, Australia has some shock absorbers. If it doesn’t Australia won’t be able to escape the fallout entirely, but at least has some defences. Australia’s budget deficit for the financial year to June 30 2023 is expected to be A$36.9 billion ($23.3 billion).
SYDNEY, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Australian employment posted a disappointingly small rise in September in a hint that a very tight labour market might finally be loosening, lessening pressure for faster increases in interest rates. The miss on jobs supports the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision this month to slow the pace of rate hikes to quarter-point moves, having already lifted rates by 250 basis points since May. The jobless rate held near 48-year lows at 3.5% in September, while the participation was just off record highs at 66.6%. This is a major reason why markets fully expect another rate rise of 25 basis points in November. The RBA has argued it can afford to go slower than the Fed since wages in Australia are growing at half the pace of those in the United States, even with a very tight labour market.
SYDNEY, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Australia's jobless rate stayed near five-decade lows at 3.5% in September, though there was a potential sign of loosening in the very tight labour market as employment rose by much less than expected. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment rose just 900 in September from August, when they jumped 36,300. That was well short of market forecasts for an increase of 25,000. The jobless rate held at 3.5%, as did the participation rate at 66.6%. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Mortgage rates have fallen to below 2% in recent years, but interest rates are rising rapidly in Australia. Home prices fallNational house prices have fallen for a fourth straight month as demand for homes start to slide due to higher costs of borrowing, according to Corelogic. In Sydney, Australia's biggest city, home prices have fallen over 7% since prices started unwinding at the start of the year, just before interest rates lifted. Since hitting peak prices earlier this year, house prices in Melbourne have fallen nearly 5%. Since hitting peak prices earlier this year, house prices in Melbourne have fallen nearly 5%.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported its monthly indicator of consumer prices (CPI) rose 6.8% in August from a year earlier. In contrast, annual inflation for fruit and vegetables more than doubled to 18.6% in August as flooding hit the farm sector. Utility prices have also been rising but are only included in the quarterly CPI release. This is only the second release of the monthly CPI indicator, with the September data due in late October and then at roughly four-week intervals. The monthly CPI only has around two thirds of the price observations of the quarterly series and is more volatile, somewhat limiting its usefulness.
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