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Invigorating growth is critical: When the economy expands, it improves standards of living, promotes innovation and makes households wealthier. Economic growth in Spain and France was stronger than expected last year. But the US is outperforming mainly for one key reason: Robust productivity growth. Productivity growth came in well below expectations in the first three months of the year, according to Labor Department data released last week. A “course correction” isn’t an even stronger US economy: Economic policymakers around the world need to address a range of key issues.
Persons: ” Kristalina Georgieva, ” Georgieva, ” Stephen Gallagher, Gallagher, , , Hande Atay Alam, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel Katz, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Krispy Kreme, John’s, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Monetary, IMF, European Central Bank, Labor Department, Societe Generale, CNN, Reuters, Palantir Technologies, Tyson Foods, Marriott Worldwide, New York Fed, Disney, UBS, Duke Energy, Suncor, Bros, Minneapolis, Toyota, Uber, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Airbnb, Fox Corporation, News Corporation, Duolingo, Icahn Enterprises, New York Times Company, AMC Entertainment, Honda, Warner Bros Discovery, Warner Music Group, Hyatt, Hilton, Bank of England, US Labor Department, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, University of Michigan, . Chicago Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Europe, China, United States, Spain, France, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Israel, Gaza, Olesya, “ Turkey, Lyft, TripAdvisor
Washington CNN —The Federal Reserve is expected to announce Wednesday that it is keeping interest rates at a quarter-century high for the sixth-straight meeting. Other Fed officials have already introduced the possibility of a rate hike, in addition to the chance of no rate cuts this year. Williams later said that another rate hike is possible if economic data warrants it. That combination eerily resembled stagflation, which triggered a broad stocks selloff on Wall Street Thursday. The threshold for a rate hike is ‘extremely high’Another interest rate hike is back in the conversation, but at the moment, it’s still not likely the Fed will do that.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, John Williams, Williams, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, , can’t, it’s, Goldman Sachs, Wall, ” Oren Klachkin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Index, New York Fed, Bloomberg, Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Commerce Department, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Nationwide, CNN Locations: New, Chicago, Wells Fargo
Americans are falling behind on their payments
  + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Americans are already struggling to keep up with their credit card payments. Strong consumer spending has buoyed the US economy through the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle that has brought interest rates to a 23-year high. Economists say that Fed officials look closely at Americans’ ability to make their payments. Nunes, himself a former Republican congressman from California, pointed to how Trump Media has been among the most expensive stocks to borrow. “This is particularly troubling given that ‘naked’ short selling often entails sophisticated market participants profiting at the expense of retail investors,” the Trump Media CEO wrote.
Persons: New York CNN —, Austan Goolsbee, ’ ”, , Ramon Laguarta, Matt Egan, Devin Nunes, ” Nunes, Nunes, Read, Hanna Ziady, Colm Kelleher, Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Chicago Federal, Society for, New York Fed, ISI, PepsiCo, Commerce Department, Atlanta Fed, Social, Trump Media, Trump Media & Technology Group, Truth Social, Financial Services, Republican, Traders, UBS, Credit Suisse Locations: New York, California, Switzerland, Swiss
Gold retreats as Middle East tensions ebb
  + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich. Gold prices dipped on Monday, as easing fears of a wider Middle East conflict lowered bullion's safe-haven appeal, while market participants awaited a key U.S. inflation reading due later this week for interest rate cues. Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,369.97 per ounce, as of 0451 GMT. Asian stocks recovered some losses and bond yields rose as fears of a wider Middle East conflict ebbed, with investors gravitating back towards riskier assets. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 2.3% to $27.99 per ounce, spot platinum rose 0.3% to $934.03, and palladium fell 0.3% to $1,023.17.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, Wong, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Aurum, Asia Pacific, Treasury, Chicago Federal Locations: Munich, U.S, Tehran, Iran, OANDA, Israel, Hamas
The front month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for May , which expires on Monday, fell 12 cents to $83.02 a barrel. Iran is the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, according to Reuters data. ANZ analysts said in a note that volatility in the Middle East will keep oil markets "jittery". On Saturday, a blast at an Iraqi military base killed a member of a security force that includes Iran-backed groups. Separately, on Sunday, Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah said it downed an Israeli drone that was on a combat mission in southern Lebanon.
Persons: Brent, Tina Teng, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: West Texas, Chicago Federal, Energy, U.S . House, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ, Hezbollah Locations: Israel, Iran, U.S, Ukraine, China, Iraqi, Sunday, Lebanese, Lebanon, Gaza
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, U.S., February 14, 2024. Staff | Reuters"If you take a broad view, inflation got way above where we were comfortable with and it's down a lot," he said. The first three readings for this year indicate covering the remaining distance to 2% "may not be as rapid," he added. He described himself as a "proud data dog," and pointed to what he says is "the first rule of the kennel." "If you are unclear, stop walking and start sniffing," he said.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Council, Foreign Relations, Staff, Reuters, Market Locations: New York, U.S
Washington CNN —Americans haven’t been stashing money into their savings accounts like they used to, according to government statistics. Put together, this may have resulted in “a structurally lower saving rate,” according to the report. What does the lower saving rate of nowadays say about the US consumer? Households are continuing to spend at these elevated rates and one reason is because of the lower saving rate. You’re just not seeing a reversal back to pre-Covid levels, which isn’t shocking when you look back historically to what has happened to the saving rate.
Persons: haven’t, , Wells, Bell, Shannon Seery Grein, There’s, they’ve, we’ve, Matt Egan, ” Paul Knopp, Read, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Lorie Logan, Mary Daly, Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Wells, KPMG, CNN, Gallup, T Bank, US Commerce Department, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Johnson, Bank of America, PNC, The Bank of New York Mellon, Northern Trust, United Airlines, Federal Reserve, Abbott Laboratories, Discover, Citizens, Cleveland Fed, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Netflix, Alaska Air, National Association of Realtors, Fed, US Labor Department, Procter & Gamble, American Express . Chicago Fed Locations: Wells Fargo, United States, Europe, UnitedHealth, Blackstone
U.S. stock futures were little changed Tuesday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for a second day in a rough start to the quarter. S&P 500 futures were lower by 0.02%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.02%. The S&P 500 lost 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite tumbled nearly 1%. The S&P 500 is coming off its best first quarter since 2019. "We've heard day after day that we're either touching all-time highs or within reach of all-time highs.
Persons: Dow, Kristen, We've, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Adriana Kugler, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Levi Strauss Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Nasdaq, Citi, Federal, Fed, Chicago Fed
Gold subdued as dollar firms, investors seek more Fed cues
  + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices held steady on Tuesday despite a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields, as investors awaited the minutes of the last U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting for more clues on its interest rate cut timing. Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday due to an uptick in the dollar, although bullion traded in a narrow range as investors stayed on the sidelines awaiting more cues on the U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,176.80 per ounce, as of 0533 GMT. The dollar index strengthened 0.1% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. "It's difficult to construct an overly bearish case for gold prices with the current backdrop of geopolitics and potential central easing," City Index senior analyst Matt Simpson said.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Austan Goolsbee, JP Morgan Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Federal, Index, Chicago Fed, Fed Locations: U.S
Gold holds tight range as focus turns to U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices were stuck in a tight range on Tuesday as investor focus turns to U.S. inflation data due later this week, which could shed more light on the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year. Gold prices hit a record high last week after Fed policymakers indicated they still expected to reduce interest by three-quarters of a percentage point by 2024 end despite recent high inflation readings. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook cautioned the U.S. central bank needs to proceed carefully as it decides when to begin cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, Capital.com, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook Organizations: Aurum, Federal, Chicago Fed Bank, Traders, Fed Locations: U.S
That’s because some Federal Reserve officials are reconsidering forecasts they made three months ago that called for three rate cuts this year. The stakes are high because there are consequences if the Fed cuts rates soon or if it leaves rates where they’ve been for the past eight months. First rate cut hinges on inflation dataIn February, Bostic told CNN that the first rate cut could come “sometime in the summertime.” That’s also Wall Street’s current expectation. He hasn’t specified — and is unlikely to signal — the number of rate cuts he believes are appropriate for this year. He has cheered inflation’s descent and said further improvement could open the door to rate cuts — if that actually bears out.
Persons: they’ve, Raphael Bostic, ” Bostic, Bostic, That’s, Powell hasn’t, Price, Nam, ” David Page, Powell, Rather, Jerome Powell, Chip Somodevilla, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, , we’ve, we’re, Goolsbee, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Index, AXA, Federal, , Harvard University, Chicago, Yahoo Finance, Fed, San Francisco Fed Locations: New York
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates, according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s written testimony submitted to congressional lawmakers, released Wednesday. Recent economic data showed that price pressures persisted in January, leading investors to recalibrate their expectations for rate cuts this year. Still, the timing and pace of rate cuts remains up in the air. Too soon to cut rates? In a recent interview with CNBC, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said “we’ll see” if the Fed cuts rates in 2024.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, Powell’s, inflation’s, , José Torres, “ Young, there’s, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin, , “ I’m, Austan Goolsbee, we’re, Adriana Kugler Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Financial, , Interactive Brokers, CNN, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Richmond Fed, Congress, Chicago Fed, , Stanford University Locations: Washington
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: Housing inflation is what we have to watchAustan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Goolsbee's thoughts on the latest Core PCE data, why housing inflation is the sector the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention to, and if January's data has changed the monetary policy outlook.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Austan Organizations: Chicago, Chicago Fed, Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a relatively slow rate cut desire from the Fed, says Jefferies' David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Zervos' response to Austan Goolsbee's latest comments, the question marks around the macroeconomy, and much more.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos David Zervos, Austan Organizations: Jefferies
New York CNN —The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index and S&P 500 broke records Thursday afternoon. The S&P 500, meanwhile, gained 0.5% to close at a new high of 5,096.27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day slightly higher, up 47 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 was up 5.2% for the month, the Dow was 2.2% higher and the Nasdaq gained 6.1%. All S&P 500 subsectors ended the month in positive territory.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, , , subsectors, Bitcoin, bitcoin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, Fed, Investors, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Dow, Deutsche Bank, Nvidia Locations: New York
Washington, DC CNN —Americans racked up a record amount of credit card debt in 2023, soaring past a trillion dollars. “Consumers still have a lot of money left over to be able to spend, so the credit card data is often misinterpreted,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, told CNN. According to a LendingTree analysis of more than 350,000 credit reports, the average unpaid credit card balance was $6,864 in the fourth quarter. Overall, US household debt (including credit card balances) rose to a new high of $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the prior three-month period. So, while there certainly isn’t a shortage of economic hurdles bedeviling people’s budget — and credit card debt has surged — the big picture indicates that, so far, Americans (and their economy) remain healthy.
Persons: ” Russell Price, Price, haven’t, market’s, ” Gregory Daco, ” Lara Rhame, Laura, Jensen Huang, Christine Lagarde, Virgin, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, John Williams, Papa, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, fuboTV, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Adriana Kugler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Workers, New York Fed, Consumers, Ameriprise, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, . New York Fed, Employers, Soaring, FS Investments, Nvidia, Huawei, AMD, Microsoft, Broadcom, US Commerce Department, Central Bank, eBay, Smucker, Urban Outfitters, Global, Board, TJX, Monster Beverage, Baidu, HP, Paramount Global, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Dell Technologies, Papa John’s, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, P, China’s National Bureau, Statistics, Pearson, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ., EY, Santa Clara, Singapore, Shenzhen, China, Beijing, CAVA
Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America
If productivity is strong, that means the US economy is doing more with less, or being more productive. Productivity is measured by dividing all the goods and services produced in the economy by every hour people worked. “But the economy did well, so that translated into higher productivity, supporting higher wage growth and fending off inflation from accelerating.”Last year’s productivity boom could also be a combination of all of the above. Still, it may be too soon to know if last year’s productivity burst was truly a transformative shift in the US economy. “Sometimes at the very end of an economic cycle, productivity can be boosted by cost-saving measures,” Goodwin of New York Life Investments said.
Persons: ” Lauren Goodwin, Mark Zandi, John Min, Austan Goolsbee, It’s, ” Min, ” Goodwin, Organizations: DC CNN, Labor Department, New York Life Investments, CNN, Microsoft, Meta, Citigroup, Monex, Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg Locations: Washington
Hong Kong/New Delhi CNN —Japan’s stock market defied gloomy economic data to rally Friday, lifting broader Asian shares and ending the week on a buoyant note. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index closed above 38,000 points for the second day in a row, just a whisker off its historic peak reached in December 1989. “If anything, the window of opportunity created by the weak yen is encouraging international investors, as they suspect it will close soon,” he added. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asian shares excluding Japan closed more than 1% higher. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed at a record high of 5,029.73 Thursday as US stocks bounced back from steep losses earlier this week.
Persons: , Neil Newman, Stephen Innes, Austan Goolsbee, Innes, Korea’s Organizations: Hong Kong / New Delhi CNN, Analysts, Japan, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed Locations: Hong Kong / New Delhi, Tokyo, United Kingdom, Asia, Pacific, New York, China
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was over three basis points lower to 4.228%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down by around one basis point to 4.5676%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Thursday as investors considered what could be next for inflation and interest rates and looked to comments from U.S. Federal Reserve speakers and economic data. Investors weighed the outlook for inflation and interest rates after the latest consumer price index — which was released Tuesday — showed that prices rose by more than expected in January. Elsewhere, data showed that the U.K. economy contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, pushing the country into a technical recession.
Persons: , Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Treasury, U.S, U.S . Federal Reserve, Investors, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations Locations: U.S
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Feb. 7, 2024. U.S. stock futures were flat Tuesday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest decline since March 2023. Futures tied to the Dow slipped 14 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures inched up 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.07%. During Tuesday's regular session, the 30-stock Dow shed 1.35% for its worst day since March 2023.
Persons: Dow, Airbnb, Dow Jones, Terry Sandven, Sandven, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, CPI, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Chicago Fed
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving them at a 23-year high as policymakers likely discuss the timing of rate cuts. That’s because, if inflation drifts lower but interest rates remain elevated, it causes “real” interest rates to rise, unnecessarily squeezing the economy and risking job losses. A rapidly weakening economy threatening mass job losses is an obvious reason to cut rates, which most economists aren’t currently forecasting. But another concern that has gained some traction is the rise of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which is an argument for rate cuts. The Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, , ” Sarah House, , , Christopher Waller, it’s, Mary Daly, they’re, aren’t, Austan Goolsbee, Subadra Rajappa, Générale, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PCE, Labor Department Locations: Washington, Wells, ” San
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down around 2 basis points at 4.1263% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slid around 2.5 basis points to 4.3285. U.S. Treasury yields pulled back on Monday morning as investors geared up for another big week of economic data . Two significant pieces of economic data are on the slate this week, with a preliminary fourth-quarter GDP growth figure due on Thursday and the Commerce Department's closely-watched PCE price index for December out Friday. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC on Friday that investors should be watching this data point when trying to plot the Fed's rate path. Auctions will be held Monday for $77 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $70 billion of 26-week bills.
Persons: Dow Jones, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Commerce, Chicago Fed, CNBC
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 19, 2024. A day later, the Commerce Department will release the December reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, a favorite Fed inflation gauge. "That's the thing that everybody should be watching to determine what the Fed's rate path will end up being," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said during an interview Friday on CNBC. On top of that, several of Goolsbee's colleagues, including Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, issued commentary indicating that at the very least they are in no hurry to cut even if the hikes are probably done. watch now"I don't like tying my hands, and we still have weeks of data," Goolsbee said.
Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Dow Jones, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Goolsbee Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters Markets, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Group, Christopher Waller , New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York City, U.S, Christopher Waller , New
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChicago Fed President Goolsbee: A 'mistake' for the market to hinge on the words of Fed officialsChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, rate path outlook, state of the economy, and more.
Persons: Goolsbee, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago, Chicago Fed
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