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☆ Asia stutters as China doles out meagre rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's central bank trimmed its one-year lending rate by 10 basis points and left its five-year rate unmoved, a surprise to analysts who had expected cuts of 15 basis points to both. Disappointment at the meagre move saw Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) ease 0.3%, while the Australian dollar took a dip as a liquid proxy for China risk. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, argue there is still scope for investors to add to equity positions. The ascent of the dollar and yields was weighing on gold at $1,887 an ounce , having touched a five-month low last week. Brent was up 38 cents at $85.18 a barrel, while U.S. crude bounced 45 cents to $81.70 per barrel.

Persons: Issei Kato, Fed's Jackson, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Marc Giannoni, Brent, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, China, Japan's Nikkei, FTSE, Nasdaq, Goldman, U.S, Jackson, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, China, Beijing, Asia, Pacific, Atlanta

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The simplest conclusion is the Fed will not be able to ease again in anything like the way many had assumed or still think. This will lift the 'term premium' embedded in long-term bond yields, which has been so subdued since Fed balance sheet expansion met the crash of 2008, even if the Fed is done tightening policy rates, he said. Fed policy is more neutral than restrictive "if you believe we've returned to a pre-2008 world", he said, and that limits the scope for rate cuts in future. Writing by Mike Dolan; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, handwringing, Anujeet, we've, Amanda Lynam, Mike Dolan, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reserve, Treasury, U.S, AAA, Atlanta, Deutsche Bank, Vanguard, Federal Reserve, Brandywine Global, BlackRock, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

United States and Chinese flags are set up before a meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, Saturday, July 8, 2023. The U.S. economy expanded 1.2% in the second quarter, following 1.6% growth in the first three months of the year. Meanwhile, China's growth outlook continues to darken. "We may see similar growth rates between the U.S. and China, which is a concern for China because it is much poorer per capita," she added. The historic highs and lows of U.S. and Chinese economic surprises, respectively, will likely revert to mean as analysts adjust their expectations.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Mark Schiefelbein, That's, Goldman Sachs, Desmond Lachman, Dirk Willer, Jamie McGeever, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Treasury, Rights, Atlanta Fed's, Barclays, Goldman, American Enterprise Institute, Reuters, Center for Strategic, International Studies, U.S, World Bank, Citi, Thomson Locations: United States, Diaoyutai, Beijing, China, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, U.S

ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Investors are hoping policymakers gathering at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium later this month will shed light on one of the murkiest - yet fundamentally most important - tenets of monetary policy: R-star. Even the New York Fed's two most renowned R-star indicators, the Laubach-Williams model and the Holston-Laubach-Williams model, are, metaphorically speaking, miles apart. Martínez-García's estimate of short-term R-star is negative, while the New York Fed staffers' models suggest it has "increased considerably over the past year". The Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle having raised interest rates by 525 basis points to the highest since 2007. Longer-dated real bond yields have shot up to their highest level since 2009 even as market expectations for inflation and Fed rates have held steady.

Persons: Treasuries, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Williams, Enrique Martínez, García, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, David Mericle, Jackson, John Williams reckons, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Kansas City Fed's, Fed, New, Dallas Fed, TD Securities, York, Dallas and New York Fed, New York Fed, Citi, Reuters, New York Times, Atlanta, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, New York, U.S, Dallas

Aug 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The word 'crisis' should always be used responsibly and judiciously when covering financial markets, business and economics, but are we at that point now with China? The People's Bank of China may have finally pulled the interest rate lever, but it had the expected impact of slamming the exchange rate. Compare and contrast China with Japan, as per Tuesday's bumper Q2 GDP data, and the U.S., where figures on Tuesday showed a surge in retail sales. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:- New Zealand interest rate decision- China house prices (July)- Japan tankan surveys (August)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Zhang Dandan, JP Morgan, Josie Kao Organizations: Peking University, People's Bank of, Atlanta, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, New Zealand, Japan, Asia, People's Bank of China, U.S, Hong, Zealand

Since CPI inflation tends to be faster than the PCE measures that the Fed uses to set its inflation target, that means one important area of policymaker focus may have dipped below target already. But the pace of increase pales against the double-digit gains in 2021, and the inflation rate for rental housing has also slowed. A recent study by San Francisco Fed economists, using real-time housing and rent data from companies like Zillow, projected "a sharp turnaround in shelter inflation" through late next year. Two versions of the San Francisco estimates show shelter inflation hitting 0% next year, well below the 3%-to-4% range that Meyer said could help the Fed traverse its last inflation mile more quickly. Other aspects of the economy may also be snapping into place, a possible late-arriving validation of the Fed's initial expectation that rising inflation in 2021 would prove "transitory."

Persons: Brent Meyer, Meyer, Quincy Krosby, they've, Christopher Waller, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Atlanta Fed's, Fed, CPI, San Francisco Fed, LPL, Richmond Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, San Francisco

☆ Looming inflation report could hold an unpleasant surprise for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank district's Inflation Nowcast model points to a 0.4% rise that would equate to a 3.4% annual rate. "Rent could be an important source of a positive (moderating) surprise in July's CPI," Yardeni wrote. 'Sticky' inflation persists But inflation has proven more persistent than most policymakers, particularly those at the Fed, would have thought. In fact, the Atlanta Fed's sticky CPI is still at 5.8% on a 12-month basis — though 2.9% at an annualized pace — after peaking at 6.7% earlier this year. Moreover, Thursday's core CPI reading is expected to show core inflation running at a 4.7% annual level, just a tad below the June reading.

Persons: Dow Jones, it's, Ed Yardeni, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lisa Shalett, Shalett, Morgan, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Hollenhorst, Solita Marcelli Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, CPI, Cleveland Fed, UBS Locations: U.S, Atlanta

☆ July jobs report: U.S. payroll growth totaled 187,000, lower than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A more encompassing unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell to 6.7%, down 0.2 percentage point from June. The survey of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a more robust gain of 268,000. The unemployment rate for Blacks moved lower to 5.8% while the rate for adult women nudged higher to 2.7%. A 3.5% unemployment rate, you can't complain about that," said Satyam Panday, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. This is a "really, really solid labor market," said Jonathan Stokoe, senior vice president at job placement firm Adecco.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Stocks, Satyam Panday, Jonathan Stokoe, Rick Rieder, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Blacks, Gross, Atlanta, Group, Fed, Bank of America Locations: U.S, BlackRock

☆ 'No sign of a recession': 3 signs suggest the US economy is so strong it may not even cool to a soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

These are the three signs that suggest the economy's strength means it doesn't have to worry about sticking the landing. "Not only do we see no sign of recession, but it also doesn't even look like the economy is looking for a 'landing' at this point," Varghese said. Looking at the last three months of economic data, Varghese highlighted three data points that suggest the economy is likely to remain stronger than many expect and ultimately avoid a recession. Retail sales rose at an annualized pace of 4.7% in the second-quarter, and retail sales excluding vehicle and gas station sales rose at a 6.3% annual pace. Taken altogether, the data suggests to Varghese that the US economic growth reaccelerated over the past year.

Persons: Carson Group's Sonu Varghese, Carson, Sonu Varghese, Varghese, it's Organizations: Carson, Federal Locations: Atlanta

☆ Asia stocks split as US-China outlooks diverge
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 0.7% to hit a three-month high, with results propelling bank shares. Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Bank of America (BAC.N) and Bank of New York Mellon (BK.N) shares rose sharply on strong results and an upbeat outlook overnight. Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares rose 4% - adding $100 billion in market value - after announcing charges for artificial intelligence features in its office software. British inflation data due at 0600 GMT is the next major calendar item and traders are expecting a fall to a still-uncomfortable 8.2% annual pace. "While annual headline inflation fell sharply, which is helpful for inflation expectations, the details suggest persistence in non-tradables inflation."

Persons: Seng, SYDNEY, Dovish, Tapas Strickland, Morgan Stanley, Klaas Knot, Brian Daingerfield, Treasuries, Brent, Lincoln Organizations: Companies, Microsoft, U.S, European Central Bank, New Zealand, Japan's Nikkei, Headline U.S, National Australia Bank, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, NatWest Markets, Bank of, Fed, ECB, ANZ, Thomson Locations: China, Japan, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, South Korea, Sydney, Atlanta, U.S, Europe, New York, New Zealand, Bank of England

☆ Recession worries are likely to carry over into the second half of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

LaVorgna is in the camp that says it will be difficult if not impossible for the U.S. to avoid at least a modest period of negative growth in the second half. "The only way we won't have a deep recession is if the Fed has the courage to ease very quickly." "The second half will be difficult. And if history is any guide, the strength that has marked the first half of the year likely will carry over into the second half. In years when the index gained more than 10% in the first half, the second half usually sees double the normal second-half return, according to CFRA.

Persons: Joseph LaVorgna, Trump, LaVorgna, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, hasn't, CFRA, Sam Stovall, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities America, Fed, Market Committee, Atlanta, Moody's, University of Michigan, Treasury, Pantheon Locations: U.S, nonfarm payrolls, Friday's

☆ US business activity growth slows in June but services keep humming along
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

June 23 (Reuters) - U.S. business activity fell to a three-month low in June as services growth eased for the first time this year and the contraction in the manufacturing sector deepened, closely watched survey data out Friday showed. Nonetheless, it was the fifth straight month that the PMI remained above 50, indicating growth in the private sector. The survey's flash services sector PMI fell to 54.1 from 54.9 in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI would ease to 54.0. Its flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.3 from 48.4 in May and was weaker than economists' median forecast of 48.5.

Persons: Chris Williamson, Williamson, Dan Burns, Chizu Organizations: P Global, PMI, P Global Market Intelligence, Commerce Department, Fed, Investors, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Atlanta

"My baseline is that we should stay at this level for the rest of the year," and not cut rates until the latter half of 2024, Bostic said in an interview on Yahoo Finance. "Letting restrictive policy work for a while is prudent because the policy has been truly restrictive for less than a year, and it takes time for monetary policy changes to meaningfully influence economic activity. Bostic is the first official to say explicitly that may be too soon. Therefore, the real economic effects of tighter monetary policy are only just beginning to take hold," Bostic said. The risk of waiting is that inflation may resurge, but "that is not my baseline."

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Yahoo Finance, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta

☆ A rolling recession in the economy is turning into a rolling recovery that should help limit downside in the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A rolling recession in the economy has turned into a rolling expansion, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. He said the resilience of underlying sectors of the economy should help limit stock market downside. Now, that rolling recession is turning into a rolling expansion across that should help boost the ongoing economic recovery and help limit any potential downside in the stock market, market veteran Ed Yardeni said in a Tuesday note. "What happens after a rolling recession? Perhaps a rolling expansion as the economic sectors that fell into a recession recover," he said.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, —, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, Atlanta Fed, Atlanta Locations: Wells Fargo

Not only are his current approval ratings historically low, they are particularly poor given that unemployment is at its lowest in more than half a century. As a result, Biden's approval ratings could reasonably be expected to rise if inflation continues to decline. Reuters analysis suggests presidential approval ratings are rarely below 40% when inflation is 6% or lower. What will have a greater impact on consumers' and voters' well-being - unemployment pain or inflation gain? Some economists say the 'Misery Index', the unemployment rate plus the inflation rate, is a decent proxy for people's happiness and even presidential approval ratings.

Persons: Joe Biden's, Biden, Harry Truman's, Joseph Macri, Bahram Adrangi, 3pp, Andy Schneider, Lina El, Robert MacCulloch, Hamed Shafiee, David Blanchflower, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wall, Bank of America, Atlanta, Reuters, Presidents, BNP, Dartmouth College, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S, Iraq

☆ Despite recent good news, many on Wall Street still see a recession coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Despite some recent positive signs for the U.S. economy, the Wall Street consensus is holding out belief that a recession is lurking. Still, LPL doesn't see "another 2008" even though "investors should anticipate some volatility as the economic outlook remains cloudy." However, Wall Street persists in worries that the central bank will not be able to engineer its hoped-for soft landing. "Optimism around a soft landing [is] growing with the rally in equities and strong labor market," Horneman said. "We believe the chance of a soft landing is unlikely."

Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Lawrence Gillum, Roach, Gillum, LPL, BlackRock, DBRS Morningstar, Michael Heydt, Jerome Powell, Megan Horneman, Horneman Organizations: LPL, Fed, of Michigan, Atlanta, Wall, Investment, BlackRock, ECB, Wednesday, Financial Services Committee, Verdence Capital Advisors Locations: U.S

☆ Yes, you can have a red-hot jobs market and a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The U.S. jobs market is still sizzling and the economy is heading for a recession: Both things can be true. May's nonfarm payrolls growth again stunned Wall Street, with the count climbing by 339,000, well ahead of Wall Street estimates that have consistently undershot the report since January 2022. However, there's an old adage on the Street that when it comes to recessions, the jobs market is always the last to know. Central bank policymakers specifically have targeted a slowdown in the labor market in their quest to bring down inflation. The weak services reading comes with an ISM manufacturing reading — most recently at 46.9 — in contraction for seven straight months.

Persons: Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, Kumar, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Federal, Pantheon, Fed, Sri, Kumar, Services, Capital Economics, Research, Atlanta Locations: payrolls

☆ Slower US job, wage gains expected in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Nevertheless, the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to still show the labor market remaining tight. PROGRESS ON INFLATIONBut the overall labor market remains upbeat, with first time applications for state unemployment benefits hovering at very low levels. Slowing wage inflation is corroborated by other measures like the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker, which has come off its peaks. Financial markets see a nearly 70% chance of the Fed keeping its policy rate unchanged at its June 13-14 meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the employment report, did not record the work stoppage in its May strike report.

Persons: Bill Adams, Brian Bethune, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Comerica Bank, Data, Labor Department, Atlanta, Boston College, Fed, Writers Guild of America, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: y WASHINGTON, Dallas, New York

☆ Next week promises any debt deal relief may prove short-lived with jobs report, Fed decision looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The overhangs on the market this year [are] the debt ceiling negotiation, hawkish Fed commentary and a banking crisis. It appears we are going to get a debt ceiling deal over the weekend, which should help the market to stabilize." The problem for many on the Street is the action in the S & P 500 Tech Index, up more than 5% this week; the Nasdaq Composite , ahead about 2.5%; and the S & P 500 , with a 0.3% gain, masks so much weakness beneath the surface. The S & P 500 consumer staples, materials, health care and utilities were all down between 2.4% and 3.2% this week, and the Dow Industrials were lower 1%. Although the S & P 500 is 9.5% higher so far in 2023, only a few stocks are doing well. "

☆ Fed's Bostic casts doubt on rate cuts this year even if there's a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Monday that he doesn't foresee rate cuts at least through 2023, even if there's a recession. "If there's going to be some cost to that, we've got to be willing to do that." "If there's going to be a bias to action, for me would be a bias to increase a little further as opposed to cut." On inflation, Bostic said he remains optimistic, while Goolsbee said, "Inflation is improving, but it's not improving that rapidly." "There's still a lot of confidence that our policies are going to be able to get inflation back down to our 2% target," Bostic said.

☆ The Great Resignation is giving way to the 'Big Stay' as job-hopping slows down
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

It may be accurate to say the quitting situation is evolving into the "Big Stay," per ADP's chief economist. "The Big Quit of 2022 could be easing into the Big Stay of 2023," Richardson wrote in her recent commentary. "A year later, all three of these dynamics are abating, and the great resignation itself is looking like a thing of the past." Pollak said that "to the extent that there is a big stay, it is not taking place across the economy." Even if the Great Resignation might not be prevalent in all areas of the economy right now, it could emerge again.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead US. consumer price data to test feared stagflation scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some also believe the recent banking sector tumult will hurt lending and further constrain growth, forcing the Fed to cut rates before inflation is tamed. April’s survey of global fund managers from BoFA Global Research showed stagflation expectations near historical highs, with 86% saying it will be part of the macroeconomic backdrop in 2024. Next week’s consumer price data for April, due on Wednesday, May 10, could offer a clearer picture of whether the Fed’s interest rate increases are cooling inflation. Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset macro strategy at Nomura Securities, pointed to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate, which is projecting a 2.7% growth rate in the second quarter, up from 1.8% on May 1. At the same time, expectations that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates much higher has created a better backdrop for investors, he said.

☆ Slower US job growth expected in April; unemployment rate seen rising to 3.6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The unemployment rate is forecast to have risen to a still historically low 3.6%. "The labor market is slowly bending, but not breaking," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "There is continued resilience in the labor market right now, but the trend is one that is continuing to see a decelerating pace of momentum." The service-providing sector likely accounted for most of the anticipated job gains in April. WAGE GAINS MODERATEAverage hourly earnings are expected to have risen by 0.3% in April, matching March's gain.

☆ Here's what to expect from today's Federal Reserve announcement
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on March 22, 2023. None of those figures are satisfactory for Fed officials. "Most Fed officials don't seem comfortable that the rate hike cycle is over," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note. The next Fed policy meeting comes in six weeks, on June 13-14, and April's consumer price report is due in one week, on May 10. This Fed meeting is crucial."

☆ US labor costs increase solidly in first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, April 28 (Reuters) - U.S. labor costs increased solidly in the first quarter as strong wage gains persisted amid a tight labor market, suggesting inflation could remain elevated for a while. The Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 1.2% last quarter after increasing 1.1% in the October-December period, the Labor Department said on Friday. Labor costs increased 4.8% on a year-on-year basis after advancing 5.1% in the fourth quarter. Wages and salaries increased 1.2% last quarter after rising by the same margin in the fourth quarter. Inflation-adjusted wages for all workers were unchanged on a year-on-year basis after declining 1.2% in the fourth quarter.

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