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☆ Bond market 'yield curve' returns to normal from inverted state that had raised recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An inverted yield curve, in which the nearer-duration yield is higher, has signaled most recessions since World War II. However, a normalization of the curve does not necessary signal good times ahead. In fact, the curve usually does revert before a recession hits, meaning the U.S. could still be in for some rough economic waters ahead. Job openings had exceeded labor supply by more than 2 to 1 at one point, aggravating inflation that had been at its highest level in more than 40 years. That part of the curve is still steeply inverted, with the difference now at more than 1.3 percentage points.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Quincy Krosby Organizations: CME Group, Atlanta Fed, LPL, Labor Department, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: Chicago, U.S

☆ Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic: Can't wait until inflation is at 2% to start moving
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic: Can't wait until inflation is at 2% to start movingCNBC’s Steve Liesman and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, state of the economy, rate path outlook, and more.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Steve Liesman Organizations: Atlanta, Atlanta Fed

☆ The one question on everyone’s mind about interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

That’s precisely why the Fed is poised to cut interest rates in September for the first time since 2020. Therein lies the one question on everyone’s mind: How aggressively will the Fed ultimately cut rates? A high threshold for jumbo rate cutsThe Fed makes its decisions on interest rates consistent with what’s happening in the economy. Fed officials have mostly signaled that they’re finally ready to cut rates, but some have still expressed some hesitance. But, for now, there’s no emergency demanding the Fed cut rates aggressively next month, or any time later in the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, pare, Price, Powell, “ They’re, ” Tani Fukui, they’re, Raphael Bostic, ” Powell, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, That’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Labor Department, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Traders, MetLife Investment Management, CNN, Atlanta Fed, Citi, Oxford Economics Locations: Unemployment, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ ‘The time has come’: The Fed just sent a crucial message about its next move
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

And so does the broader US economy: Economic growth this year has been solid and the Atlanta Fed is projecting that growth hasn’t slipped. “The labor market is cooling, but it’s not getting soft. A slowing job market is also playing a role in nudging the Fed to ease borrowing costs. Translation: The recent weakness in the job market could result in American shoppers curbing their spending more than expected. A big question mark is the future of America’s job market, which is a key driver of the US economy.

Persons: Washington CNN —, “, Jerome Powell, ”, “ Powell, Seema Shah, hasn’t, ” Tom Porcelli, it’s, Powell, cooldown, ” Powell, aren’t, they’re, —, “ There’s, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, Markets, Asset Management, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, CNN, Walmart, America’s Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, nudging

☆ The 'soft landing' hypothesis is alive and well: What retail sales and Walmart earnings tell us
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Inflation relief was palpable this week, with both the producer price index and consumer price index reinforcing that inflation is trending down. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 Index over the past month. S & P 500 earnings growth of 10% is expected in 2024, and 15% growth is seen for 2025. True, revenue growth hasn't been as strong, and much of the reason earnings are holding up is cost cutting. Growth is slowing, but no recession is apparent Interest rate cuts coming and earnings are still holding up.

Persons: It's, John David Rainey Organizations: Walmart, American Association of, Bulls, Atlanta Fed, CNBC

☆ Gold prices inch lower as U.S. inflation data looms
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. inflation print later in the day that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. inflation print later in the day that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in July, reinforcing market view that cooling inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he wants to see "a little more data" before he's ready to support lowering interest rates. Gold, often used as a hedge against geopolitical risks, thrives when interest rates are low.

Persons: Kyle Rodda, Raphael Bostic, Ismail Haniyeh Organizations: Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve, Traders, Atlanta Fed, Investors Locations: U.S, Iran, Gaza, Israel

☆ Dip buyers vindicated as CPI report revives economic 'soft landing' scenario
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the second day in a row that stocks have reacted with relief to an inflation report. The S & P 500 is now back to where it was just before the disappointing jobs report on Aug. 2. The S & P technology sector ETF (XLK) is also back to levels before the jobs report. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has collapsed to 17 — also where it was just before the jobs report. Despite the growth scare that followed the jobs report, there are no signs of an imminent recession.

Persons: — Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Bloomberg News, Tech, Nvidia, Atlanta Fed Locations: Treasurys

☆ Dollar tenses for data verdict on rate cut risks
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The greenback was idling at 147.17 yen , having briefly touched a one-week high of 148.23 overnight before profit-taking emerged. More important will be the consumer price report and retail sales for July which could have a material impact on whether the Fed eases by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September. The former outcome would likely lift Treasury yields and support the dollar, while the latter would have the opposite effect. The futures market clearly still sees recession as a risk with 101 basis points of Fed easing priced in by Christmas, and more than 120 basis points for next year. "Although the trend is moderating, inflation is too high for the Fed to justify the market pricing 100bp of rate cuts between September and year-end."

Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Swiss, Atlanta Fed, ANZ

☆ Fed's Bostic: If economy evolves as I expect, should be rate cuts by year-end
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's Bostic: If economy evolves as I expect, should be rate cuts by year-endCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the latest news on the Fed, as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economy.

Persons: Steve Liesman, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Atlanta Fed

☆ Fmr. Atlanta Fed President: Weakening is strong enough for Fed to also cut in November and December
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFmr. Atlanta Fed President: Weakening is strong enough for Fed to also cut in November and DecemberFormer Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, state of the economy, interest rate outlook, and more.

Persons: Dennis Lockhart Organizations: Atlanta Fed, Former Atlanta Fed

☆ Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart: A September rate cut is on the table
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart: A September rate cut is on the tableFormer Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, state of the economy, interest rate outlook, and more.

Persons: Dennis Lockhart Organizations: Former Atlanta Fed, Atlanta Fed

Roberto Schmidt | AFP | Getty ImagesIt's no secret that the housing market looks far different than it did a few years ago. While surging mortgage rates and housing prices have taken away consumers' purchasing power, low supply has kept the market competitive. A higher rate, in reality, results in more interest due on a home loan. Housing prices are also central to the equation for everyday Americans decision how much, or if, they can afford to spend. One from the National Association of Realtors found affordability tumbled more than 33% between 2021 and 2023 alone.

Persons: Roberto Schmidt, it's, Dow Organizations: AFP, Getty, Dow Jones, National Association of Realtors, Atlanta Federal, Atlanta Fed Locations: Clarksburg , Maryland

☆ With high prices and mortgage rates, aspiring and current homeowners feel ‘stuck'
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A double whammyFor aspiring homebuyers such as Burress, the combination of high mortgage rates and rising list prices has left them feeling boxed out. The 30-year mortgage rate, a popular option for home financing in the U.S., has bounced around 7% for the past several months. Given this, co-author Jonah Coste said current owners touting these low mortgage rates are undoubtedly better off than those looking to buy a first home today. After welcoming three kids, they're holding off on a fourth until mortgage rates or home prices come down enough to upsize. To be clear, mortgage rates tend to follow the path of Fed-set interest levels, but they aren't the same thing.

Persons: Brandon Bell, Rachel Burress, Burress, who've, that's, That's, Jonah Coste, there's, They're, Coste, they're, Luke Nunley, Nunley, We'd, Jeffrey Roach, LPL, Roach, hasn't, It's, Daryl Fairweather, Lindsey Nicholson Organizations: Getty, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Corcoran Realty, UCG Locations: Austin , Texas, Fort Worth , Texas, Aledo, U.S, Atlanta, Kentucky, Forest Hills, Queens , New York

☆ US Job Market Is Getting Worse, Unemployment Rising. Fed Needs to Cut.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

But increasingly, there are signs that the job market is losing some steam. Whether it's hard data like the unemployment rate or sentiment-based surveys of businesses, it's clear that the labor market has cooled off. It's clear that the Federal Reserve should be the force to slow down the sliding job market. The job market is at an inflection pointThe emergence of the US from the worst of the pandemic shutdowns in early 2020 helped usher in a historic boom for the labor market. If 3% growth could not keep unemployment from climbing in 2023, why would the unemployment rate remain stable in 2024 if growth comes in substantially lower?

Persons: Beveridge, Taylor, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Fed, Atlanta, Federal Reserve

☆ Stocks will struggle and a recession is on the table if the Fed fails to cut rates by September, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rally in stocks could be endangered if the Fed doesn't cut rates soon, Jeremy Siegel warned. The Wharton professor made the case for the central bank to cut rates in September as data softens. AdvertisementThe rally in stocks and the strength of the economy is at risk if the Fed doesn't start cutting interest rates soon, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. No rate cut in September could put a recession on the table, Siegel warned, in addition to endangering the trajectory for stocks. Advertisement"So although I think stocks are still in an uptrend and the growth stocks are still certainly walloping the value stocks, I think Powell has to take note," Siegel said.

Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, —, who's, Siegel, Powell Organizations: Service, CNBC, Atlanta Fed, New, Fed

☆ A key part of America’s economy has shifted into reverse
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington CNN —A vast swath of the US economy is showing signs of weakness as unemployment rises to its highest point in more than two years. “When you think of services, a lot of it is driven by the consumer, and consumers are key to where the US economy goes,” James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, told CNN. Consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of the US economy, has already moderated over the past few months, government statistics show, and retailers themselves have said they’ve noticed shoppers across the income spectrum change their purchasing behavior. The bottom 60% of households by income accounted for a larger proportion of spending on health care services. These firms have added 168,000 jobs a month, on average, from April through June, according to fresh Labor Department data released Friday.

Persons: “, ” James Knightley, “ We’re, Knightley, Scott Hamilton, Gallagher, It’s, Tesla, China’s Geely, Laura He, Elon, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Institute, Supply, ING, CNN, Commerce, Service, Labor Department, EV, Volvo, SAIC, Elon Musk’s, Business, Committee, Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Financial Services, Chicago Fed, Pepsico, Delta Air Lines, ConAgra Brands, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, The, New York Mellon, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, United States, California, Jiangsu, China, Shanghai, Wells Fargo

☆ Job switchers hoping for a big raise are in for disappointment
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewHere's some less-than-great news if you're looking to job-hop because of your pay: People changing roles likely won't be getting as big of a wage bump as past job switchers. However, the report said that "median pay raises appear to have moderated to around 10%" as of this past May. The drops in the median pay raise for job-to-job movers from 2022 to 2024 were felt across workers in all income groups, the Bank of America Institute found. Still, the report noted that lower-income Bank of America customers — those making under $50,000 a year — had the highest median pay gains. AdvertisementThe report said that those middle- and upper-income job seekers may "have somewhat less leverage and bargaining power in negotiating a raise on taking a job."

Persons: —, David Tinsley, Tinsley, there's, switchers Organizations: Service, Bank of America Institute, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, New, of Labor Statistics Locations: Atlanta

☆ Ron Insana: Why this jobs report should spur the Fed to cut rates in July
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

It's time for the Fed to cut rates at the end of July. Add to that the moderation in the consumer price index , the producer price index and the personal consumption expenditures price index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – and the need to wait for further signs of improvement seems like overkill. Also, if the Fed dials back policy later – rather than sooner – there will be claims of political interference if it cut rates immediately before the presidential election. The central bank has been dealing with an economy-crashing pandemic, a surge in prices and uncertainty over how its policies would affect the broad economy, inflation and consumer behavior over time. This is a factor that will likely drive inflation rates lower.

Persons: Adrian –, –, Mickey, Dow Jones, Joe Biden, Adrian . Go, Ron Insana Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow, New York Federal, Atlanta, CNBC

☆ Key Fed measure shows inflation rose 2.6% in May from a year ago, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

May marked the lowest annual rate since March 2021, which was the first time in this economic cycle that inflation topped the Federal Reserve's 2% target. An important economic measure for the Federal Reserve showed Friday that inflation during May slowed to its lowest annual rate in more than three years. Including food and energy, headline inflation was flat on the month and also up 2.6% on an annual basis. Outside of the inflation numbers, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed that personal income rose 0.5% on the month, stronger than the 0.4% estimate. Shelter-related costs have proven stickier than Fed officials have anticipated and have helped keep the central bank from reducing interest rates as expected this year.

Persons: Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Dow, Commerce Department, Federal, Asset Management, Gross, Atlanta Fed Locations: PCE

☆ The S&P 500 will hit 8,000 by the end of the decade as the bull market continues through the 'roaring 20s,' market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The "Roaring 20s" are back and set take the S&P 500 to new heights, market vet Ed Yardeni says. The Yardeni Research president predicted the benchmark index could hit 8,000 by the end of this decade. AdvertisementThe bull market in stocks is bound to run on until the end of this decade, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Then there is the ever-growing investor excitement about the potential of artificial intelligence, which has carried mega-cap tech stocks steadily higher over the last 18 months. "The news just continues to be very exciting about the technology revolution, that's driving, what I think, is the Roaring 2020s," he added.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, —, David Lin, Yardeni, There's Organizations: Yardeni, Service, Atlanta Fed, Nvidia, Oracle

☆ AI is replacing human tasks faster than you think
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That’s in addition to creative tasks for which some businesses are already relying on ChatGPT and other AI chatbots to assist, including crafting job posts, writing press releases and building marketing campaigns. The findings show companies are increasingly turning to AI to cut costs, boost profits and make their workers more productive. Nearly 60% of all companies (and 84% of large companies) surveyed said that over the past year they have already leaned on software, equipment or technology including AI to automate tasks employees previously did. Bosses are turning to AI for a variety of reasons, including to trim what they are spending on human workers. Human jobs will be replaced — but will be replaced by other humans using AI,” he said.

Persons: ” Duke, John Graham, Duke, ”, Graham, “, Reid Hoffman, ” Hoffman, Janet Yellen, Democratic Sen, Gary Peters, ” Graham Organizations: New, New York CNN — Corporate, Duke University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, ”, CNN, Survey, Atlanta Fed, LinkedIn, Democratic, Homeland Security, Government Affairs Committee Locations: New York, That’s, ChatGPT

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Apple shares pop, Musk drops OpenAI lawsuit
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Musk drops OpenAI suit Elon Musk dropped his lawsuit against OpenAI, CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman, which alleged breach of contract and fiduciary duty. Apple pops Apple 's shares rose to a record high a day after it announced its push into artificial intelligence. Get the CNBC Daily Open report in your inbox every morning and keep up to date with the markets wherever you are. For more, CNBC's Jeff Cox explains there could be a huge impact from the consumer price index and the Fed meeting.

Persons: Paul Jacobson, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, Siri, OpenAI, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, David Malpass, Dennis Lockhart, Jeff Cox, — CNBC's Lim Hui Jie, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring, Spencer Kimball, Hayden Field, Samantha Subin, Ashley Capoot, Michael Wayland Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, General Motors, GM, OpenAI, Microsoft, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Brent, Bank, Biden, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Atlanta Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, San Francisco

☆ 3 signs the US economy is nearing a recession have flashed in the last week, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US economy is edging precariously close to a recession, and it's flashed a handful of warning signs in just the last week that suggest a downturn is on the horizon, according to Société Générale. New manufacturing orders contracted in May, and overall manufacturing activity contracted for the 18th time over the last 18 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Advertisement"Although many may dismiss the importance of the manufacturing sector for the overall economy, it is undeniable that overall GDP ebbs and flows closely with it. SocGen isn't alone in sounding the alarm, and other economists say that high interest rates are finally working their way through the economy and depressing growth. New York Fed economists see a 52% chance the economy could slip into recession within the next 12 months.

Persons: —, it's, Société, Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, That's, SocGen isn't Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Institute for Supply Management, New York Fed

☆ Americans are expected to splurge on travel this summer — again
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Analysts are expecting the Memorial Day weekend to usher in yet another summer of strong consumer spending on travel and other leisure activities. “We haven’t seen Memorial Day weekend travel numbers like these in almost 20 years,” Paula Twidale, senior vice president at AAA Travel, said in a release. Spending this summer will likely be a little softer than last year’s, they said, but still strong. The bank’s consumer travel survey showed that 72% of people said they’re planning to travel, with 36% saying they’ve already planned their trip. Even among respondents making less than $75,000 a year, more than 60% said they’re planning to travel this summer.

Persons: ” Paula Twidale, Royal Caribbean’s, ” David Tinsley, they’ve, Joelle, aren’t, Dogecoin, Shiba Inu “, Atsuko Sato, ”, Sato, ” Kabosu, Kabosu, Shiba, Loretta Mester, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Robin, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN —, Transportation Security Administration, AAA, AAA Travel, Bank of America Institute, Bank of America, Japan, Europe, New York Fed, Public Policy Research, Mizuho Financial, Federal, Global, Index, Board, HP, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Abercrombie, Fitch, Eagle Outfitters, Costco, Dell, Dollar, Hormel, US Commerce Department, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Atlanta Fed Locations: Washington, Caribbean, South Korea, Switzerland, Colombia, Costa Rica, Canada, Mexico, Domestically , California, Florida, California, “, Sakura, CAVA, Chewy, Burlington, Birkenstock, Nordstrom, Kohl’s

☆ Stock market today: Indexes pop after Nvidia's blowout earnings report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks jumped Thursday with investors feeling buoyant after Nvidia's big first-quarter earnings report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks moved higher on Thursday, with investors cheering another blowout earnings report from chip giant Nvidia. The company, whose chips are at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom, beat on both revenue and earnings. It reported $26.04 billion in revenue versus analyst estimates of $24.65 billion, and earnings per share of $6.12, compared to estimates of $5.59.

Persons: Stocks, Raphael Bostic, —, Blackwell, AI Jensen, Dan Ives Organizations: Atlanta Fed, Service, Nvidia, Securities, Microsoft, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Here's

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