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LONDON/SINGAPORE, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The dollar ticked higher on Tuesday ahead of a raft of central bank decisions but remained on track for its fourth consecutive monthly loss. The Federal Reserve will set interest rates on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday. That meant it was set for its fourth monthly drop, having fallen around 11% since hitting a 20-year peak in late September. Investors then expect the ECB and BoE to raise their main interest rates by 50 bps each on Thursday. Sterling was last 0.29% lower at $1.231, but was on track for its fourth monthly increase.

The euro was down 0.12% against the dollar at $1.088, just off the $1.093 level reached on Friday, which was the highest since early May. Meanwhile, the dollar was up 0.1% against the yen , at 130.28 yen per dollar, having hit an 8-month low of 127.22 on Jan. 16. Those expectations have caused the dollar index , which surged on the back of Fed rate hikes last year, to fall more than 11% from September's 20-year high of 114.78. Expectations of further rate increases by the European Central Bank have also aided sentiment and supported the euro. The U.S. dollar was little changed against its Canadian counterpart ahead of the Bank of Canada's latest rates decision on Wednesday, buying C$1.337.

☆ Dollar edges up as darkening growth outlook hurts sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The dollar crept higher on Wednesday as top executives from the biggest U.S. banks warned of an impending recession, which dampened risk appetite and kept the greenback supported. Against the dollar, sterling fell 0.4% overnight, and was last 0.05% lower at $1.2128. It's part of our baseline," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was last 0.05% higher at 105.60. The offshore yuan was last marginally higher at 6.9845 per dollar, having been supported by an easing of China's strictest COVID-19 restrictions.

☆ Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Savyata Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Market participants turned bullish on the U.S. dollar-sensitive South Korean won for the first time since July 1, 2021, the poll of 12 analysts showed on Thursday. Expectations that the dollar's strength and U.S. yields had peaked saw investors return to emerging markets in November. "Given the negative burden of the Fed's tightening cycle on Asian currencies, an eventual pivot toward easing will likely deliver a rally in Asia FX," BofA analysts said in a note last week. However, Barclays analysts warn of challenges from increased fragmentation of domestic politics and the slowing economy. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3.

☆ Volatility in yuan spurs bets China will widen its band
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SHANGHAI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - As macroeconomic risks induce unprecedented levels of volatility in China's yuan, investors are betting that authorities may widen the currency's tight trading band for first time since 2014 to allow market forces greater say. Day-to-day yuan volatility has been as high as 16% on some days in October, compared with a tame 1% to 4% range in the months and years before. Policy sources have told Reuters they have considered widening the trading band over the past few years to show their commitment to long-term market reforms. Rising volatility in yuan-rouble trading earlier this year prompted the central bank to double the trading band for the pair to 10% in March. Yet, most analysts who think a band widening is due also do not think it is imminent.

The euro rose ahead of inflation data due on Wednesday. The Aussie , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, rose 1.2% to $0.6734. EURO ZONE INFLATIONThe euro was up 0.4% at $1.0380, not far from a five-month peak of $1.0497 hit on Monday. Flash euro zone inflation figures for November are due on Wednesday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting inflation to come in at 10.4% year-on-year. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed needed to raise interest rates quite a bit further, while New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin echoed similar views.

☆ Market watchers' comments on COVID-19 protests in China
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Here's what market watchers are saying about the unrest:ALLAN VON MEHREN, CHIEF ANALYST, DANSKE BANK, COPENHAGEN:"Normally protests in China are aimed at local governments but a crowd in Shanghai directed their protest against the Communist Party and Xi Jinping." "The protests come as the recent tweaks in the zero-Covid policy seem to have backfired as they led to rising cases across the country that subsequently triggered new restrictions being implemented. MARK HAEFELE, GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CIO, UBS, ZURICH:"We do not expect economic or market headwinds in China to abate significantly over the coming months. KEN CHEUNG, CHIEF ASIA FX STRATEGIST, MIZUHO, HONG KONG:"The China economy is heading to the direction of reopening but the road to the reopening could be a bumpy one. GARY NG, ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG:"The market does not like uncertainties that are difficult to price and the China protests clearly fall into this category.

☆ Comments from market watchers on the COVID-19 protests in China
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

ALVIN TAN, ASIA FX STRATEGIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"The scale of the protests will necessarily elicit a response from Beijing. KEN CHEUNG, CHIEF ASIA FX STRATEGIST, MIZUHO, HONG KONG:"The China economy is heading to the direction of reopening but the road to the reopening could be a bumpy one. "Overall, the China Q4 growth outlook should remain grim given the COVID resurgence and the related mobility tightening. GARY NG, ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG:"The market does not like uncertainties that are difficult to price and the China protests clearly fall into this category. MARTIN PETCH, VICE PRESIDENT, MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE:"We expect the protests ... to dissipate relatively quickly and without resulting in serious political violence.

The rupee is tipped to open at around 80.65-80.70 per dollar, up from the previous session's close of 80.7950. The local currency jumped 2% last week in its best gain in almost four years. The rupee has already corrected more than 3% from record lows and "then you have to consider oil prices", the trader said. Asian currencies began the week on a positive note, keeping up the momentum fuelled by softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The data has prompted traders to calibrate again the pace of Fed rate hikes.

☆ Dollar rises as China defends stringent COVID policy, dampening risk sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The two currencies were huge beneficiaries of a broad rally on Friday - rising nearly 3% - as speculation that China could soon end its COVID restrictions gathered pace and buoyed risk appetite. But hints of some easing of market conditions, with the unemployment rate rising to 3.7%, fuelled hopes that the much sought after Fed pivot could be on the horizon, capping the dollar's gains. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index last stood at 111.02. "Judging by market reaction, investors really focused on the lift in unemployment rate, and that might have led to market participants scaling back their expectations on the Fed funds rate." Four Federal Reserve policymakers on Friday also indicated they would still consider a smaller interest rate hike at their next policy meeting.

☆ Analysis: Xi's next premier faces tough task reviving Chinese economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's economic tsar, Liu He, a U.S.-trained economist who is seen as the brains behind earlier reforms, will be replaced by He Lifeng, another Xi acolyte. "We face the problem of weakening expectations and confidence and it's empty talk if we cannot revitalise the economy," Jia said. China's economic miracle started in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping kicked off historic reforms, allowing more private enterprises and opening the economy to foreign investment. The poll showed China's growth could pick up to 5.0% in 2023, helped by a lower base. Xi's Standing Committee choices disappointed investors who had been hoping he would keep some reform-minded officials, including former Guangdong party boss Wang Yang.

☆ Reaction to China's 20th Communist Party Congress
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oct 23 (Reuters) - China's Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third leadership term on Sunday and introduced a new Politburo Standing Committee stacked with loyalists, cementing his place as the country's most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong. I can imagine that zero-COVID policy is likely more entrenched and there’s going to be further push on this issue of common prosperity and the like.”CHRIS MILLER, PROFESSOR AT TUFTS UNIVERSITY, MASSACHUSETTS“The party congress has reaffirmed Xi's decisive role in ruling the Communist Party, marking a continued shift away from collective leadership of party elites toward a personalized dictatorship. It also appears to have confirmed the downgrading of economic growth as a key party goal, relative to other agenda items such as zero-COVID and the party's political and ideological control. On tech, the key theme was self-sufficiency in science and technology, which is to be expected given the increasing decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese tech sectors.”GARY NG, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ASIA PACIFIC, NATIXIS, HONG KONG“The new inner circle will extend and heighten the current policy stance, and generally it seems that most of the newly appointed officials seem to be Xi’s key allies. So I guess this is also a move of the further consolidation of power, or maybe in the future, of course, performance is important, but also loyalty is increasingly a key concern when picking officials.”Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Rae Wee in Singapore and Xie Yu in Hong Kong; Editing by William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Three of the four new Standing Committee members owe their political rise to Xi, and the fourth is believed to be closely aligned with him. All but Guangdong party chief Li Xi worked under Xi in the 2000s, either in affluent Zhejiang province or in Shanghai. By excluding Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, both 67, from the party Central Committee and Standing Committee, Xi broke with the "seven-up/eight-down" rule that those aged 67 or under would remain for another five years. No woman has ever made it onto the Standing Committee. NOT TROUBLE-FREEThe run-up to the party congress was hardly smooth, with China facing sharp economic slowdown, frustration over zero-COVID and worsening relations with the West.

☆ China's Xi clinches third term, packs leadership team with loyalists
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( Yew Lun Tian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Tingshu WangBEIJING, Oct 23 (Reuters) - China's Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third leadership term on Sunday and introduced a new Politburo Standing Committee stacked with loyalists, cementing his place as the country's most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong. Shanghai Communist Party chief Li Qiang followed Xi onto the stage at the Great Hall of the People as the new leadership team was introduced, meaning he is likely to succeed Li Keqiang as premier when he retires in March. The other members of the seven-man Standing Committee, China's top governing body, are Zhao Leji and Wang Huning, who return from the previous committee, and newcomers Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang and Li Xi. Li Qiang is also new to the Standing Committee. Xi Jinping also has total control over the larger Politburo and Central Committee," he said.

☆ Bank analysts have two big reasons to be bullish on the Singapore dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Charmaine Jacob | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Why bet on the Singapore dollar? "I believe that investors also associate the strong [Singapore dollar] with Singapore's competence and reliability, as a partner and gateway to the region," Wee said. The Singapore dollar is not as widely traded as currencies of larger economies, Maybank's Supaat pointed out. The Singapore currency is not immune to the strength of the U.S. dollar either, said Wee, who warned that the Singapore dollar could lose its footing as Asia's outperformer should there be a global recession. "This is the main risk, or chief risk, for investors seeking [the Singapore dollar] as a haven," Wee added.

☆ Bank of Japan keeps ultra-low rates, dovish policy guidance
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates and dovish policy guidance on Thursday, reassuring markets that it will continue to swim against a global tide of central banks tightening monetary policy to combat soaring inflation. "However, we believe that the BOJ will never allocate monetary policy for the FX rate adjustment and will stick to the YCC policy. "The most important thing is how the foreign-exchange rate reacts to that contrast in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan. It also leaves the impression there will be no change in monetary policy during Kuroda's remaining term." He has said lesser about any merit of the weak yen recently out of consideration towards public sentiment against rising costs of living."

☆ The Japanese yen is at 24-year lows. Here's what to expect at the next BOJ meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Japanese yen is hovering close to its weakest levels since 1998, and authorities have hinted at taking action to stem the currency's decline. The widening rate differential has caused the yen to weaken significantly, with the Japanese currency falling about 25% year-to-date. Loading chart...Last week, the Bank of Japan reportedly conducted a foreign exchange "check," according to Japanese newspaper Nikkei – a move largely seen as preparing for formal intervention. watch nowStrategists at Goldman Sachs also don't see the central bank shifting from its yield curve control policy, pointing to its hawkish global peers. End of AbenomicsMonetary policy changes by Japanese authorities as unlikely, chances being especially low under BOJ governor Harukiho Kuroda, UBS Chief economist for Japan Masamichi Adachi told CNBC last week.

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