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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell triggered a surge in stocks when he spoke Wednesday , taking the S & P 500 into a new range. Redler expects a near term peak for the S & P 500 could be around 4,200-4,220. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq were both higher Thursday, as the 10-year Treasury yield continued its slide to a low of 3.35%. He's watching the growing number of three-month highs in the Russell 1000 and S & P 600 , which are now outpacing the new highs in the S & P 500. The VIX is based on puts and calls in the S & P 500.
Simply buying the worst performers of 2022 seemed to have paid off for investors in January. Discovery have seen the largest bounce back in shares of the group, up 54% after a 60% tumble in 2022. Semiconductor stocks took a beating in 2022 as companies grappled with slowing demand. Of the names included in the list, Lumen Technologies , Epam Systems and Dish Network are the only three downtrodden 2022 stocks bucking the worst-to-first trend. That includes an improvement in long-term trend following indicators, more widespread breakouts, and greater improvement in market breadth, which is currently overbought, she said.
Three-stock lunch: SoFi, Lucid and Goldman Sachs
  + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThree-stock lunch: SoFi, Lucid and Goldman SachsAri Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss three stocks moving higher today, the reasons behind the positive gains, and the durability of the action.
Earnings : More than 20% of the S & P 500 will report this week; by next Friday, 50% of the S & P will have reported. Craig Johnson at PiperSandler noted that 66% of all S & P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving averages. It's not just the big-cap S & P 500 that is advancing: So are small-caps. The S & P High-Beta ETF is up 16% this month, at its highest levels since April of 2022. If that holds, it's the first positive January for the S & P 500 since 2019, when it was up 7.9%.
The U.S. dollar surged in 2022, with the dollar index hitting a peak of $114.78 in September. But since September, the dollar index has slipped and is now nearing a range that could lend support to the S & P 500 . The dollar index nearing 100 is a key number that many technical analysts are watching – it was named one of the big numbers for 2023 by Oppenheimer. Still, she's also been watching the dollar's major corrective phase and per DeMARK Indicators sees an active signal on the dollar index that flashed on Jan. 13. .DXY YTD line DXY YTD "What it suggests is that from the support area, we should see a relief rally or a dollar bounce," she said, adding that this would mark a sentiment shift around the dollar.
Three-stock lunch: NVDA, SPOT, CRM
  + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThree-stock lunch: NVDA, SPOT, CRMAri Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss today's big market movers Nvidia, Spotify, and Salesforce on three stock lunch.
It was a sloppy start to the year for stocks, and the steep decline in two market darlings — Apple and Tesla — is not a good omen for the market in 2023. The S & P 500 was down as much as 1.2% on Tuesday and dipped below the key 3,800 level. "I think Apple has a major influence on market sentiment. Though, she added that Tesla is much less of an impact on overall market action than Apple because of the tech giant's huge market cap. Stockton also said the S & P 500 could break down several hundred points below that and reach 3,200.
Bad data should now correspond with higher bond prices (lower rates) and lower stocks," according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. Broke the line Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald said he sees a warning in the S & P 500 chart. "The S & P 500 was rejected at its 2022 downtrend last week marking resistance around 4,070," he wrote in his weekend note. "Our take is that the [S & P 500] index's base is intact," he wrote. But following that gain, the S & P was down 4.6% a month later; 4.6% three months later and 19.6% six months later.
The so-called "golden cross" occurs when the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day moving average. The opposite signal to the golden cross is the death cross, which is a sell signal that triggers when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. The analysis found that on average, stocks were higher three months after a golden cross 62% of the time, and higher six months after the golden cross 64% of the time. The average three-month return when stocks were higher after a golden cross was 7.33%, while the average return six months after the golden cross was 10.65%. The golden cross signal is one of many trading patterns that technical analysts employ to buy stocks.
In those years, December was just the fourth best month, with the S & P 500 rising 1.35% and gaining 68% of the time. As the S & P 500 exits November, it is down about 17% this year. The S & P 500 could mirror some of the other very negative years. For instance, the S & P 500 was down 18.5% through November in 2002, and then bottomed in March 2003, gaining 26.4% that year. Watching key levels In order to confirm a bullish cycle, Suttmeier said the S & P 500 needs to regain the 40-week moving average at 4,033.
Energy stocks continue to outperform the market
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEnergy stocks continue to outperform the marketAri Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, joins 'The Exchange' for a conversation on the strength of stocks in oil production and refinement, the overall market lift brought on by gains in the energy sector and the structural shift underway within the energy market.
Strategists have been watching to see if the stock market lows hit on Oct. 13 will be the low for the current cycle, or whether it is just a low in a bear market. He said financials and airlines also helped drive the market higher. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF , which represents the S & P information technology sector, is up 5.8% in October. The Communications Services Select Sector SPDR is up 4.8% for the month. In contrast, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is up 23% in October, and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund is up more than 10%.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOppenheimer's Ari Wald on 3M: More attractive opportunities elsewhereAri Wald, Oppenheimer managing director, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss three stocks ahead of earnings, including 3M, GM and UPS.
Earnings Exchange: 3M, GE & UPS
  + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings Exchange: 3M, GE & UPSAri Wald, Oppenheimer managing director, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss three stocks ahead of earnings: 3M, GM and UPS.
As yields rose from just under 4% Tuesday morning, the stock market rally lost some steam. That should help stocks rally into year end, but he expects the yield to rise again next year, challenging the market. But he is encouraged by the strength of the rally and says there's a chance this could be the start of a new bull market. "You could always side conservatively and assume it's a bear market rally," he said. But he is also watching the market day-to-day, and expects it is in a bear market rally, rather than a new bull trend.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis 'textbook bottom' presents an opportunity for long-term investors, says Oppenheimer's Ari WaldAri Wald, Oppenheimer head of technical analysis, joins 'The Exchange' to give his technical take on the market.
Markets are showing signs that stocks are nearing a bottom, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald said. Wald pointed to resilience in small cap stocks amid a sell-off in the S&P 500. The technical signal is the opposite of what would flash at a market top and means a new rally could be near. But that fallout hasn't been seen in small cap stocks, Wald said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday – which could be a signal that a new rally is in the cards. Typically at a market top, S&P 500 makes a higher high, small caps make a lower high," he added.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are signs that a longer-term market bottom is forming, says Oppenheimer's WaldAri Wald, Oppenheimer managing director, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss an area of relative outperformance in equities, if it's time to invest in the Russell 2000 and more.
If the stock market is going to follow its historic pattern during a midterm election year, it would be bottoming just around now. "Typically, it's after Oct. 9 that you start to see some better performance," said Ari Wald, technical analyst at Oppenheimer. The analyst said that date was the average day the market bottomed in the last eight mid-term election years, going back to 1990. "Investors should moderate their expectations for US equity valuations; history shows these contract during periods of high volatility." "Generally our view is that the rate market is trading more off Fed policy and the Fed's commitment to fight inflation rather than the actual threat of inflation.
Global central banks are jacking up interest rates with no end in sight until high inflation is vanquished. The Federal Reserve is aggressively fighting inflation by lifting its benchmark interest rate five times so far this year. There isn’t.”Higher interest rates make life more expensive for anyone who borrows money. The higher rates ding home affordability but also might be holding back home sales. Higher interest rates make financing a car — when you can find one — even more expensive.
The S & P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were all down sharply for the week. The S & P was down 4.6%, ending the week at 3,693. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard , St. Louis Fed President James Bullard , San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are among the speakers. Other global central banks joined the Fed in raising rates, and interest rates around the world rose in tandem. If those levels break, the S & P could touch 3,385 before the selling is over, he said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWeakness in mega caps masks internal improvement, says Oppenheimer's Ari WaldOppenheimer Managing Director Ari Wald, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss retesting S&P lows, mega cap tech stocks dominating indexes, and understanding time horizons in the midst of a volatile market.
With the Federal Reserve meeting this week, stocks could be volatile, and technical analysts say the S & P 500 looks increasingly set for a retest — and possible break — of its June low. In the past week, t he S & P 500 declined 4.8%, closing at 3,873, in its worst weekly performance since June. Wald now says a dip to 3,500 on the S & P 500 is possible. Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, said the 3,900 level was important and the area on the S & P 500 where the most volume traded over the last three years. The Oppenheimer technical analyst notes that the S & P 500 has typically bottomed around Oct. 9, before launching into a strong rally into year-end, based on the average composite of the last eight mid-term election years.
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