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☆ Major US banks show profit boost, but cautious on outlook, consumer health
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan's (JPM.N) profit jumped 35% on the year-ago quarter, while Wells Fargo (WFC.N) profit surged 60%. The banks benefited from higher interest rates, which have bolstered banks' net interest income (NII), or the difference between what they earn on loans and pay out on deposits. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, the first- and fourth-largest U.S. lenders, respectively, also increased their outlook for NII. Regional lender PNC Financial Services' (PNC.N), meanwhile, reported higher consumer loan delinquencies. JPM and Wells reported a decline in average deposits.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Wells, Jamie Dimon, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Jane Fraser, Dimon, JPMorgan's NII, Saeed Azhar, Ann Saphir, Megan Davies, Lananh Nguyen, Michelle Price, Nick Zieminski Organizations: JPMorgan Chase's, REUTERS, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Citi, PNC, PNC Financial Services, Thomson Locations: New York, Major U.S, Wells Fargo, U.S

☆ Fed's Collins says CPI data drives home uneven progress on restoring price stability
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Collins appeared to view higher borrowing costs as buying the Fed some space to take in incoming data. If the rise in yields persists, “it likely reduces the need for further monetary policy tightening in the near term,” Collins said. It showed progress on underlying price pressures but the overall reading rose by 3.7% versus a year ago, the same gain as August. “Today’s CPI release is a reminder that restoring price stability will take time,” and it remains a question whether inflation is moving sustainably on a path back to the target, the official said. Collins added that the core service prices stripped of housing factors have yet to make much progress toward lower levels.

Persons: Susan Collins, Ann Saphir, ” Collins, Collins, “, Michael S, Mark Porter Organizations: Reserve Bank of Boston, Kansas City Fed, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Fed, Thomson Locations: Jackson, Wyoming, U.S

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

According to the minutes, "several participants" felt that "the focus of monetary policy decisions and communications should shift from how high to raise the policy rate to how long to hold the policy rate at restrictive levels." For now, "all participants agreed that policy should remain restrictive for some time" until it is clear inflation "is moving down sustainably toward its objective." The release on Thursday of the consumer price index report for September could add to the impetus for the Fed to remain on hold. Waller said that if recent month-to-month inflation trends continue, it would mean "we're pretty much back to our target." Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Christopher Waller, Waller, Paul Ryan, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Treasury, U.S . House, Investors, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Utah

☆ Fed's Daly: Risks of doing too much vs too little 'roughly balanced'
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly poses for a photograph at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S. August 25, 2023. "How much can the economy take in terms of rate increases so we can get the policy rate to a level that's reasonable to bring inflation down? She was describing the balancing act the Fed faces after raising the short-term policy rate from near zero to 5.25%-5.5% over a span of about 18 months. "I would say now the risks of how we balance those things are roughly balanced -- over-tightening versus under-tightening -- but we still have high inflation and the labor market's still strong," she said. "It's part of a large dashboard of data," she said, to which the Fed needs to be able to respond to with agility.

Persons: Mary Daly, Ann Saphir, Daly, Chris Reese, Leslie Adler Organizations: Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, San Francisco Federal, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, San, Chicago, Palestinian, Israel

Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaks during an interview with Reuters in New York City, New York, U.S., May 22, 2023. "It's certainly possible that higher long-term yields may do some of the work for us in terms of bringing inflation back down," Kashkari said in a town hall hosted by Minot State University. "But if those higher long-term yields are higher because their expectations about what we're going to do has changed, then we might actually need to follow through in their expectations in order to maintain those yields." Asked about the chances that inflation falls back to the Fed's 2% goal but the unemployment rate does not rise sharply -- the so-called soft landing for the economy -- Kashkari said it's looking "favorable." Still, he cautioned, if the economy stays too strong, the Fed may need to raise rates further to slow it, risking a harder landing.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Mike Segar, Kashkari, It's, Ann Saphir, Leslie Adler, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, REUTERS, Reserve, Minot State University, Thomson Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, Minneapolis

REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 10 (Reuters) - Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday said the U.S. central bank need not raise borrowing costs any further, and sees no recession ahead even as the Fed's rate hikes so far slow the economy and bring down inflation. "I actually don't think we need to increase rates anymore" to get too-high inflation back down to the Fed's 2% goal, Bostic told the American Bankers Association, to applause. Policy is sufficiently restrictive, and "a lot" of the impact of the Fed's rate hikes so far is clearly yet to come, he said. The conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas which broke out over the weekend creates uncertainty for the United States and the global economy, Bostic said, noting that it will cause rethinking on markets and investments. If data comes in differently from what he expects, Bostic said "we might have to increase (the Fed policy rate), but that's not my outlook right now, and that's not my expectation."

Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael, Bostic, Clodagh, Raphael Bostic, that's, Ann Saphir, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, REUTERS, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, American Bankers Association, Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Dublin, Ireland, U.S, Israel, United States, Ukraine

☆ Fed will stay 'on the job' to reduce inflation, Waller says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Oct 10 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday reiterated the U.S. central bank's determination to bring inflation down to its 2% target, but did not comment on the economic outlook or his view on the best immediate course for monetary policy. "Price stability is a primary responsibility of the Federal Reserve," Waller said in remarks prepared for delivery to a conference at George Mason University's Mercatus Center in Virginia. "This is why we have taken forceful steps aimed at reducing inflation - and why we will stay on the job to achieve our objective." "In considering the appropriate monetary policy response needed to return inflation to 2 percent, I find it useful to draw on the findings of the policy rules literature," Waller said. Waller has been a forceful advocate of the Fed interest rate hikes that have brought the short-term policy rate to its current 5.25%-5.50% range.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, George Mason University's, John Taylor, Taylor, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Stanford, Thomson Locations: U.S, Virginia

“I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," said Logan, who has been among the more hawkish officials in supporting the need for continued rate increases. Since the Fed last raised its policy interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in July, long-term bond yields have risen a full percentage point, a fast rate of change for a massive market. A rise in the so-called “term premium," if it proves persistent, could put an enduring drag on the economy and perhaps give the Fed less reason to raise its own policy rate.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, ” Jefferson, Jefferson, Lorie Logan, FedWatch, Gregory Daco, Logan, policymaker, Chris Varvares, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, Treasury, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, New York Fed, Fed, P, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jefferson, Israel

"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York

"The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?" "The conflict poses a risk of higher oil prices, and risks to both inflation and the growth outlook," said Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, leaving the Fed to sort out whether higher prices or slower growth is the greater concern. To the extent the Israeli war with Hamas heightens concerns about the global economy it could reverse that trend if capital rushes towards the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, as often happens at times of potential crisis. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ronen, It’s, Agustin Carstens, Carl Tannenbaum, Karim Basta, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve, Northern Trust, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, III Capital Management, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, Ukraine, U.S, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Suez

☆ BIS' Carstens: too early to say how new war will impact global outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

DALLAS, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustin Carstens on Sunday said it's "too early to say" how the newly erupted conflict in Israel will affect the global economy still struggling with post-pandemic high inflation. "Traditionally this affects the price of oil and can affect the stock market, but it’s too early to say," Carstens told the National Association for Business Economics in answer to a question after a talk in which he emphasized the need for central banks to keep interest rates relatively high "for a while" to beat inflation. "We need to continue being very firm." Reporting by Ann Saphir; editing by Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Agustin Carstens, it's, Carstens, Ann Saphir, Diane Craft Organizations: DALLAS, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson Locations: Israel

☆ Fed's Bowman says it will likely be appropriate to raise rates again
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman gives her first public remarks as a Fed policymaker at an American Bankers Association conference in San Diego, California, U.S., February 11 2019. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 7 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman on Saturday repeated her view that inflation continues to be too high despite "considerable" progress in lowering it, and the U.S. central bank will likely need to tighten monetary policy further. "I expect it will likely be appropriate for the (Fed) to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time to return inflation to our 2 percent goal in a timely way," Bowman said in prepared remarks to the Connecticut Bankers Association. The comments were largely identical to those Bowman made on Monday about the economic and policy outlook. Bowman, one of the Fed's most hawkish policymakers, said the latest employment report reflected "solid" job growth.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Ann Saphir, Bowman, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, American Bankers Association, REUTERS, Connecticut Bankers Association, U.S . Labor Department, Thomson Locations: San Diego , California, U.S

☆ Bond rout won't end Fed balance sheet cuts, but endgame bubbling into view
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Since June 2022, the Fed has allowed more than $1 trillion of bonds to mature from its portfolio, including roughly $840 billion of Treasuries. QT drains liquidity from the banking system, reducing bank reserves parked at the Fed and cash stashed in its reverse repo facility. Others believe money market rates will start to move up in ways suggesting the system is short of cash. A New York Fed report in April projected an end to QT around the middle of 2025. A survey of major banks by the New York Fed released in August eyed an end to QT in mid-2024.

Persons: it's, ”, Kathy Bostjancic, Bostjancic, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester, “, Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, Michael Barr, Michael Cloherty, Mark Cabana, ” Cabana, Cabana, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Goldman Sachs, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Chicago Fed, San Francisco Fed, UBS, Bank Policy Institute, New York Fed, Bank of America, Daily, Derby, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Washington

☆ Further Fed rate hike comes into view as job growth soars
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

An employee hiring sign with a QR code is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. Implied yields on contracts tied to the Fed policy rate pointed to a nearly 50% chance the Fed will lift the benchmark short-term borrowing rate a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.50%-5.75% range at its December meeting. Before the jobs report, traders had given a quarter-point rate hike then about a 34% chance. The report, expected to show non-farm payrolls increased by 170,000 in September but in fact showing employers added 336,000 jobs, also had traders paring bets on Fed rate cuts next year. Futures contracts now price in a Fed policy rate of 4.69% at the end of next year, up from the 4.59% seen before the report.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, Ann Saphir, Sinead Carew, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Ingalls &, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S

☆ Fed's Goolsbee does not see rise in long-term yields imperiling soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reacts as he heads into the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. "On the real side I feel like nothing has happened so far that is convincing evidence that we are off the golden path," Goolsbee said on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, recorded on Tuesday and aired on Thursday. Their projections also showed they expect to end next year with only a slightly higher unemployment rate, of 4.1%, and a slightly lower policy rate, of 5.1%. Should the rise in long-term yields go so far as to trigger a surge in unemployment or sharp slowdown in economic activity, the Fed will adjust, Goolsbee said. "We absolutely monitor that and are thinking about that, and that could be a blow to either the financial or the real economy," Goolsbee said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Ann Saphir, Goolsbee, it's, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Fed, Kansas City, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Goolsbee

Despite considerable progress, she said, "inflation continues to be too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the (Fed) to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time." The Fed targets 2% inflation. Given that progress, U.S. central bankers last month opted to keep the policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.50% range even as most signaled another rate hike would likely be needed before year's end. Speaking at a separate event in New York on Monday, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said he believes rates are now "at or very near" a sufficiently restrictive level. The same Fed forecasts also show policymakers as a group expect stronger economic growth and a stronger job market than they had expected just three months earlier.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Ann Saphir, Michael Barr, Barr, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Bowman, Thomas Barkin, we've, Dan Burns, Pete Schroeder, Anna Driver, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S . Federal, Hoover Institution, REUTES, . Federal Reserve, Fed, New, New York Fed, Richmond Fed, Thomson Locations: Palo Alto , California, U.S, New York, York , Pennsylvania

☆ Fed's Bowman: Expects it to be appropriate to raise rates further
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman gives her first public remarks as a Fed policymaker at an American Bankers Association conference in San Diego, California, U.S., February 11 2019. Bowman, in prepared remarks to a banking conference, said inflation remains too high and expects progress in lowering it to be slow "given the current level of monetary policy restraint." Bowman again also took issue with a slate of regulatory proposals being considered by the Fed and other U.S. bank overseers. She said regulators seem to be engaging in "heavy-handed" supervision and should consider if such an approach is appropriate. Reporting By Dan Burns and Pete Schroeder; Editing by Anna DriverOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Ann Saphir, Bowman, Dan Burns, Pete Schroeder, Anna Driver Organizations: Federal, American Bankers Association, REUTERS, Energy, Market, Fed, Thomson Locations: San Diego , California, U.S

REUTERS/ Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 29 (Reuters) - Fresno, California, became only the second U.S. city to ban caste discrimination after a unanimous city council vote that added caste and indigeneity as two new protected categories into its municipal code. THE TAKEA movement against caste discrimination has picked up some momentum in recent months in North America. Earlier this year, Seattle became the first U.S. city to outlaw caste discrimination after a city council vote and Toronto's school board became the first in Canada to recognize that caste discrimination existed in the city's schools. If signed into law, it would make California the first U.S. state to ban caste discrimination. Activists opposing caste discrimination say it is no different from other forms of discrimination like racism and hence should be outlawed.

Persons: Ann Saphir, Gavin Newsom, Kanishka Singh, Michael Perry Organizations: California Central, REUTERS, Seattle, NEXT, Thomson Locations: California, California Central Valley, Fresno , California, U.S, North America, Canada, United States, India, South, Washington

☆ Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their own words
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The following chart offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed's president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.

Persons: Jeff Schmid, Adriana Kugler, Louis Fed, James Bullard, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Federal Open Market, New York Fed, Jeff Schmid , Kansas City Fed's, Fed, Thomson Locations: Jeff Schmid , Kansas, St

Consumer price inflation rose for the second straight month, to 3.7% in August versus 3.2% in July. While the overall picture is somewhat mixed, the inflation data in recent months likely doesn't change the policy outlook. Reuters GraphicsRETAIL SALES (Released Sept. 14, next release Oct. 17):Retail sales rose more than expected in August, increasing 0.6%. Investors viewed the overall data as leaning against any further Fed rate increases. Weekly data on bank lending shows bank credit has fallen on a year-over-year basis since the middle of July.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, University of Michigan, Reuters Graphics, Investors, Labor, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon

☆ US government shutdown would 'undermine' US economic progress, Yellen says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Janet Yellen, United States Secretary of Treasury, participates in global infrastructure and investment forum in New York, Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023. Seth Wenig/Pool via REUTERS/ File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - A government shutdown that could start this weekend would "undermine" U.S. economic progress by idling key programs for small businesses and children, and could delay major infrastructure improvements, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Friday. A shutdown of broad parts of the government would start on Sunday as the new fiscal year starts without new spending legislation from Congress. Chances of a shutdown increased on Thursday as the House pursued partisan spending cuts and the Senate advanced separate legislation to temporarily extend spending. "The failure of House Republicans to act responsibly would hurt American families and cause economic headwinds that could undermine the progress we’re making," Yellen said.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Seth Wenig, Yellen, Lael Brainard, Brainard, " Brainard, We've, David Lawder, Ann Saphir, Philippa Fletcher, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Treasury, Rights, Port, Republicans, Senate, CNBC, . Commerce, Thomson Locations: United States, New York, U.S, Savannah, Georgia

☆ Fed's Barkin says more data needed before making next monetary policy call
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin poses during a break at a Dallas Fed conference on technology in Dallas, Texas, U.S., May 23, 2019. “That’s why I supported our decision to hold rates steady at the last meeting,” Barkin said. The Fed, at its policy meeting on Sept. 19-20, maintained its federal funds target rate range at 5.25%-5.50%. Aggressive Fed rate rises have been aimed at lowering inflation pressures, and Barkin said the path of inflation remains his key focus. “The path forward to me depends on whether we can convince ourselves inflationary pressures are behind us, or whether we see them persisting,” Barkin said.

Persons: Thomas Barkin, Ann Saphir, Barkin, “, ” Barkin, Michael S, Leslie Adler Organizations: Reserve Bank of Richmond, Dallas Fed, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, NYU, Thomson Locations: Dallas , Texas, U.S

"I'm one of those folks," said Kashkari, who is considered one of the Fed's more hawkish policymakers. Kashkari said that if inflation cools next year as expected, the Fed will need to cut rates to keep policy from tightening too much. But he also said he has been surprised by how well consumer spending has held up despite the Fed's rate hikes so far. "Everybody on the Federal Open Market Committee is committed" to bringing inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target, he said. Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure was 3.3% in July.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Mike Segar, Kashkari, Ann Saphir, Himani Sarkar, Muralikumar Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, REUTERS, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, Wharton School of Business, Fed, U.S, Federal, Thomson Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, Minneapolis

REUTERS/Joshua Roberts Acquire Licensing RightsSept 25 (Reuters) - It's a now-familiar dance: Federal Reserve officials signal to the world that interest rates are not dropping anytime soon. Forecasts published on Wednesday by the U.S. central bank showed that a majority of its policymakers see the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate ending this year at 5.6%, which implies one more interest rate hike in the next three months. They also now anticipate an end-of-2024 policy rate of at least 5.1%, half a percentage point higher than they projected three months ago. Meanwhile, interest rate futures contracts continue to price in only about a 50% chance of further tightening in 2023, and see a 4.65% policy rate by the end of next year. THE FED'S OWN UNCERTAIN FORECASTSFed policymakers plan to stop raising interest rates once they are convinced inflation is headed down to the central bank's 2% target.

Persons: Joshua Roberts, Preston Caldwell, Jerome Powell, Powell, Morgan Stanley, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Financial, U.S, Fed, Morningstar, Securities, United Auto Workers, Detroit automakers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

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