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US gas is cheaper than before Russia invaded Ukraine
  + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
That is down about 12 cents in the past week and 29 cents in the past month. Gas prices were climbing in January and February as investors worried about disruptions from a Russian invasion of Ukraine. A range of factors have led to the drop in gas prices – and not all of them are positive. Although gas prices are still relatively high for this time of the year, they have also completely reversed the spike caused by the war in Ukraine. Looking ahead, some forecasters see gas prices continuing to dip, although there remains uncertainty over where oil prices go from here due to questions about OPEC policy and China’s Covid lockdowns.
Traders are watching oil vs. oil stocks and thinking something has to give. Energy bulls insist supplies will remain tight and oil prices will likely be higher in 2023. Variable dividends Lower oil prices are not just a threat to profits: many oil companies have instituted variable dividends, where the variable portion of the payouts are dependent on cash flow. Companies with a variable dividend include Pioneer (PXD), ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Coterra Energy (CTRA). The downside: No one is sure what the total payout (the fixed dividend plus the "variable" dividend) will be from quarter to quarter.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers are demanding the energy industry to 'do whatever it can' to lower prices: ConsultancyAndy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates says the problem with the oil industry is that "nothing is ever quick."
watch nowNew England's diesel supply issues were made worse when a Canadian refinery in Newfoundland shut down in 2020 as the pandemic impacted on demand. A couple of farmers told me diesel supply via their local vendor is day to day." According to MarineTraffic, the 56 Jones Act tankers are being used. For example, a Jones Act tanker carrying 300,000 barrels of diesel from Houston to Boston costs approximately 16 cents per gallon. This is one of the reasons why energy traders favor using foreign flag tankers versus Jones Act tankers.
New York CNN Business —There is one surefire cure for high gas prices. “There is now a perceived huge downward risk tied to recession,” said Tom Kloza, chief energy analyst for OPIS, which tracks gas prices for AAA. And it’s not just US economic worries that’s putting downward pressure on gas prices. It doesn’t take a severe economic downturn to take a bite out of gas prices. The nine-month recession of 2001 ended with prices down 37% at the end of that year from their peak.
New York CNN Business —It’s not at all clear if President Joe Biden’s latest announcement that he’s releasing oil from the nation’s emergency stockpile will help bring gas prices down. The national average stood at $3.85 a gallon Wednesday, down 2 cents from Tuesday and 7 cents in the last week. But a number of West Coast refineries that had been offline have returned to operations, and that has sparked a plunge in gas prices west of the Rocky Mountains, driving down the national average. “As it started selling off [Tuesday], it triggered some liquidation [of oil futures].” Oil and gas prices both rebounded modestly in Wednesday trading. Correction: A previous version of this article misidentified the day of the week the national gas price average stood at $3.85 a gallon and the prior day.
More than any of his predecessors, President Joe Biden has aggressively leaned on this emergency oil stockpile to knock down the high pump prices that voters despise. That has left this emergency oil stockpile at its lowest point since June 1984 — a time when both the US economy and energy demand was significantly smaller than today. The SPR headlines are rattling an energy market already on edge over a potential recession. US oil prices dropped 3% to $82.82 on Tuesday, returning to levels last seen before rumors swirled regarding OPEC+’s controversial production cuts. They’ve done a tremendous job achieving their goal of trying to get energy prices lower,” said Michael Tran, managing director of global energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
It was the longest losing streak for gasoline prices since the early months of the pandemic: For 98-consecutive days this summer, American drivers experienced declining gas prices thanks in part to a slower worldwide demand for oil. According to AAA, the national average gas price climbed to $3.92 a gallon Monday. Prices are likely to keep going higher from here as oil prices continue to climb, according to Patrick De Haan, chief petroleum analyst at gas price tracking group GasBuddy.com. In a note to clients Monday, Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC consultancy, said he also expects gasoline prices to rise to as high as $4. "When prices are going up each day, when spot prices are going up each day, it’s costing us a little more because we bought it today at the highest price versus four days ago," Galanti said.
$4 gas could be coming — again
  + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
New York CNN Business —Here’s the bad news first: Gas prices are on the rise in most of the US and could soon hit a national average of $4 a gallon for the first time in two months. The national average price Monday was $3.92 for a gallon of regular gas. That’s up 12 cents in just the last week and 24 cents since a 98-day price slide ended late last month. Now those refineries are starting to come back online — and the price of gas in Western states is already falling. Currently roughly 25% of the nation’s 130,000 gas stations are selling regular gas for $4 or more, up from about 15% when the slide in prices ended last month.
New York CNN Business —OPEC+’s decision to slash oil production has set off bipartisan fury in Washington directed at the Saudi Arabia-led group, raising calls for a hard-hitting US response. And as Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna told CNN earlier this week, in some ways the United States is less dependent on Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations than in the past. US oil production has skyrocketed over the past 15 years, driving down foreign oil imports. Last year, US crude oil imports from OPEC nations stood at just 798,000 barrels per day. OPEC nations are among the only countries with the firepower to fill any gap created by the potential loss of Russian supply.
New York CNN Business —Even before Wednesday’s action by OPEC+ to cut oil production, US gas prices were on their way up. Gas prices rose nearly 3 cents a gallon in AAA’s daily reading Wednesday, to $3.83 a gallon, the biggest one-day hike in nearly four months. Gasoline futures are up about 20 cents a gallon since the slide in gasoline prices ended last month, pointing to possible higher prices ahead. Unfortunately, the refinery capacity squeeze “means gas prices are not going to go down like I had thought,” said veteran oil analyst Andy Lipow. The concern by the Biden administration is that rising gas prices bring renewed focus in voters’ mind.
Gas prices have now declined for 79 consecutive days amid falling global oil prices, sending the national average price per gallon to its lowest level since March. Data from AAA show the national average gas price now sits at $3.81 per gallon. Western states tend to have higher gas taxes, and are located further away from the fuel processing hubs in Oklahoma, Texas and Louisiana. Northeast states are also seeing higher prices, as they experience tight supplies of gasoline. He predicted U.S. gas prices are likely to fall to $3.70 by the middle of September, and as low as $3.50 by Halloween, if not sooner.
But Energy stocks are acting like this may be the top. Lately, traders have been selling off oil stocks under the theory that profits in 2023 will likely be lower than 2022, not higher. The reason: the primary determinant of oil company profits are oil prices, and estimates for oil are coming down. For much of 2022, oil has been in "backwardation": futures prices for the most immediate contracts have been higher than prices farther out. Bulls are cheering the drop in Energy No one cheering for stocks to rally are crying over the drop in oil, or the drop in oil stocks.
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