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The Santa Claus rally is in trouble. With one day left in the trade, the S & P 500 is down 0.1% in the past six days. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 — less than 25% of the time. "That is 16 out of 16 years, which includes years with recessions, like 2020," Clifton notes. The outperformance is notable: The S & P tends to be stronger by 1.3% on average.
Persons: Santa Claus, Jeff Hirsch, Tom McClellan, Hirsch, Dan Clifton, Clifton, Biden, Jason Trennert, Strategas, There's Organizations: Santa, Treasury, Bloomberg Locations: Santa, Santa Claus, U.S, Strategas, Mexico, India, Taiwan, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Tunisia
Friday is the official start of the Santa Claus rally. What the Santa Claus Rally is, and isn't Over the years, Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac has repeatedly told me the key to understanding the Santa Claus rally is that it is not a trading strategy, it is an indicator. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 (less than 25% of the time). In the years when the Santa Claus period is negative, the S & P is up an average of only 5.0%, versus an average gain of 9.1% in all years. You can see this very clearly in this chart: The common explanation is that: 1) markets are stronger with a sitting president because a sitting President can pull levers to help the economy, and 2) markets tend to be weaker with no sitting president because of increased uncertainty around economic outcomes.
Persons: Santa Claus, Yale Hirsch, Ryan Detrick, I've, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch Organizations: Carson Group, Santa Locations: Santa
The S & P ended last December down almost 6% and ended all of 2022 down almost 20% (19.4% to be exact). 2 022 was an odd duck Last year was an unusual one — unusual because market declines of 20% don't happen very often. And the S & P 500? The S & P dropped 25% from the January 2022 closing high of 4,793 to the bottom of 3,577 in October 2022. Three-quarters of the time, the S & P 500 goes up from one year to the next.
Persons: Stocks, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Down
Historically, November is the best month of the year for the stock market, and December is third, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Under the surface this week, we also saw signs of a possible market rotation in the works. Rotation watch : We must look to next week's trading for confirmation that we're in the grips of a rotation or simply a head fake. Signs of the former were on display this week as the two of the biggest sector winners of the year, communication services and technology , trailed the market. Jobs, jobs, jobs : The most important release of the week comes Friday in the form of the November nonfarm payrolls report.
Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Locker, it's, Hock Tan, We'll, Joann, JOAN, JM Smucker, OLLI, Campbell Soup, Brown, Forman, LULU, Smith, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Wall, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Cisco Systems, VMWare, Club, PMI, Labor, Signet Jewelers, SIG, Brands, Toll, Thor Industries, Natural Foods, GameStop, Vail Resorts, MTN, Smith & Wesson, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Asana, ASAN, New York City
The stock market is boring right now, and that is not a bad thing. There's a strong backdrop going into December. The S & P 500 was up 8.9%, its best month since July 2022, and the fourth-best November since 1950. If it doesn't seem that way, it's because the S & P has been flat for the past week and a half. There will be lots of complaints about high valuations, and the cynics will be right: The S & P is approaching 19-times 2024 earnings.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, let's Organizations: Triple Witching, Treasury, Atlanta, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan, Dow, Revenue Locations: Wells Fargo
Wall Street will endeavor to keep the November momentum going in the final month of 2023, as investors look for a broadening out of the rally that has been dominated this year by a handful of tech names. It also marked the best monthly performance for the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite since July 2022. While the S & P 500 cap-weighted index climbed more than 18% this year, the equal-weighted index is up by just over 4%. They highlight the attractive relative valuation of value stocks compared to growth stocks, as well as the significant underweighting of value names in portfolios by traders. And the question is, is it going to be in 2024, is it going to be 2025 or in 2026?
Persons: Stocks, Hogan, Olivier Sarfati, GenTrust's Sarfati, Carlos Asilis, Asilis, FactSet, nonfarm payrolls, They're, TK, Nonfarm Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Riley, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Expedia, Paramount Global, Russell, Glovista Investments, PMI, Services PMI, ADP, Labor, Consumer Credit, Broadcom Locations: U.S, Michigan
Don't listen to the bears: The incredible rally in stocks this month isn't over yet. The Dow and S & P 500 are on track to finish November — ending with Thursday's close — 7% and 8.4% higher, respectively. .SPX ALL mountain Long term look at the S & P 500 index We don't see any reason to curb our enthusiasm for stocks heading into the final month of 2023. With nearly all S & P 500 companies reporting results as of Nov. 17 (the last update from FactSet), 82% beat estimates on earnings while 62% beat on sales. The S & P 500 is bumping up against the highs of the year last reached in July, and the S & P Oscillator came into the week very overbought, a factor prompting us to book some profits and raise some cash.
Persons: Thursday's, Let's, Locker, bullish, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Brendan Mcdermid Organizations: Dow, Stock Traders, Federal Reserve, Energy, Meta, Adobe Analytics, Mastercard, Adobe, Shoppers, TJX Companies, PCE, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Santa, New York City, U.S
December is the time of the season when investors seldom have to worry about stock market performance, particularly in years that come before a presidential election. "Trading in December is holiday-inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month," Hirsch recently told subscribers. "However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins." December does even better for small-cap stocks, at least going back to 1979, delivering the year's second-highest monthly return. That small cap return is usually back end loaded, however, only starting around the middle of the month.
Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, Hirsch, outsized, Dow Industrials, Russell Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft Locations: Decembers
CNN —November’s full moon, known as the beaver moon, will shine bright in the night sky starting Sunday, offering a dazzling sight to behold. “The upcoming full Moon (the Beaver Moon) will look like the familiar full Moon, however the specific features are always a little different from one Moon to the next,” said Dr. Noah Petro, chief of NASA’s planetary geology, geophysics and geochemistry lab, in an email. For optimal moon gazing, Petro recommends finding a space with a clear view of the sky — away from trees, buildings and bright lights. More on the beaver moonThe beaver moon’s name is believed to be a nod to this full moon’s appearance when the industrious animal retires to its lodge in anticipation of winter. Remaining celestial events for 2023The final full moon of the year is the cold moon on December 26, according to the Farmers’ Almanac.
Persons: CNN —, , , Noah Petro, libration, Petro, ” Petro, it’s, Artemis, Ursids Organizations: CNN, NASA, Farmers, American Meteor Society Locations: Earth’s
CNBC Pro screened for stocks that tend to rise following the Thanksgiving holiday. Wall Street likes the shares today: At least 55% of analysts polled by FactSet maintain buy ratings. Shares are also well liked by analysts with more than 69% of analysts polled by FactSet maintain a buy rating on CVS. CVS YTD mountain CVS stock. The stock has historically added 2.6% after Thanksgiving with holiday travel in full swing, and shares have climbed 9% in 2023.
Persons: Wall Organizations: Dow Jones, Stock Trader's, CNBC Pro, FactSet, Caesars Entertainment, Culinary Union, Pharmacy, CVS, Delta Locations: Atlanta
U.S. equity futures opened little changed on Sunday evening, heading into the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week with all of the major averages coming off of their third straight winning performance. S&P 500 futures were down by about 3 points, or nearly 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were lower by 34 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 closed last week higher by 2.2% and the Dow added 1.9%, marking the first three-week streak for the indexes since July. Ahead of the Thanksgiving Day-shortened week, traders are awaiting Nvidia's earnings and forward guidance out Tuesday. Trading around the Thanksgiving holiday has been choppy in recent years, but November is still the best-performing month for the S&P 500, according to the Stock Traders' Almanac.
Persons: Bill Baruch, CNBC's, Friday's, OpenAI's, Sam Altman Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Blue, FactSet, Microsoft, Stock Traders
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, , CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up 17% for the year and about 6% from its record closing high from January 2022. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, , CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Nvidia earnings will be in focus in the Thanksgiving-shortened week ahead, as investors consider the sustainability of the November rally heading into year-end. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD The chip giant's results will come amid a broad rally for equities this month. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced more than 9%. That stands in marked contrast to the S & P 500, which trades at a multiple of 22. Hopes for a dovish Fed Wall Street is also heading into next week after absorbing some positive news.
Persons: Timothy Arcuri, China —, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Quincy Krosby, Bill Baruch, CNBC's, That's, Bonds, Giuseppe Sette, Dow, Jeff Hirsch, , Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Microsoft, LPL, Dow, Blue, Investors, Chicago Fed, HP Inc, Autodesk, Devices, Lowe's, Deere, P, PMI, P Global PMI Locations: FactSet, China, Treasurys, Lombard, Michigan
Leonid meteor shower peaks this weekend
  + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Taylor Nicioli | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
CNN —Up next for end-of-year celestial spectaculars is the Leonid meteor shower, set to produce bright meteors with persistent trains streaking across the night sky. The moon will be 23% full on the night of the shower’s peak, according to the American Meteor Society. Leo is the meteor shower’s radiant, which is the point where the phenomenon appears to originate from, she explained. As the comet travels around the sun, it leaves a trail of rocks and dust that appears as the annual Leonid meteor shower when Earth moves through the debris while on its own orbital path. “Getting out and seeing any meteor shower for the first time is always fun,” she said.
Persons: CNN —, Dr, Sharon Morsink, Leo, Morsink, you’re, Tuttle, , , , Ursids Organizations: CNN, University of Alberta, American Meteor Society, NASA, Leonid, Farmers Locations: Edmonton , Alberta
CNN —The Taurid meteor shower is not quite finished, with one of its two streams set to peak this weekend. When the Northern Taurids, an annual minor shower, is at its most active, sky-gazers could catch sight of a bright meteor or two streaking across the night sky. The Northern Taurids are expected to peak at around 7:21 p.m. Stemming from a parent comet called Encke, both Taurid showers typically produce low rates of five meteors per hour. When these celestial objects, known as the Encke Complex, take their orbital journey around the sun, they leave a debris trail that appears as the Taurid meteor showers when Earth’s orbit intersects with their path.
Persons: Bill Cooke, ” Cooke, , Cooke, Encke, , Geminids, Ursids Organizations: CNN, Southern, NASA, Northern, American Meteor Society, Farmers Locations: Meteoroid
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Progress, for sure, with something more to prove. And of course, the S & P had only just broken an eight-session win streak before then. There's no doubt the spread between, say, the Nasdaq 100 and the equal-weight S & P 500 is extreme this year, at some 42 percentage points. The S & P 500 High Beta Index, tracked by the SPHB ETF , now trades under 15-times forward earnings, down from 20-times in February and a current 18 for the S & P 500. Earnings growth — even if slow and unevenly bestowed across sectors — tends to limit equity downside at minimum.
Persons: that's, Disinflation Organizations: Federal, stoke, Treasury, Fed, NYSE, Trader's, Nasdaq, Beta Locations: Friday's
CNN —The first branch of the Taurid meteor showers is set to peak this weekend, presenting an enticing opportunity for patient sky-gazers. Southern Taurid meteors have been blazing bright across the night sky since late September, but around the peak — expected at 8:47 p.m. Around the shower’s peak, the moon will be nearly half full at 44%, according to the American Meteor Society. During its journey, the comet leaves a trail of debris behind that appears as the Southern Taurid meteor shower when Earth’s orbit intersects with its path. Remaining meteor shower peaks in 2023If observing the Taurids’ peak activity has you eager to see more, several other meteor showers still peak this year.
Persons: , Bill Cooke, Cooke, , , ” Cooke, Encke, it’s, , Geminids, Ursids Organizations: CNN, American Meteor Society, NASA, Meteors, Farmers Locations: . Southern, Southern, Meteoroid
U.S. equity futures were flat on Sunday evening after the major averages capped their best week so far this year. S&P 500 futures ticked higher by 0.03% and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered below the flat line at 0.01%. November is the best-performing month for the S&P 500, according to the Stock Traders' Almanac. The S&P 500 has generated an average return of 7% from November through April since then, he said. Several other Fed officials are making public remarks later in the week as well, including New York Federal Reserve President and CEO John Williams, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
Persons: Dow, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Walt Disney, Wynn, Jerome Powell, Bharat Ramamurti, CNBC's, Lisa D, Cook, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin, Lorie Logan Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Stock Traders, MGM Resorts, Occidental Petroleum, National Economic Council, New York Federal Reserve, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Federal, Dallas Fed Locations: Horton, Atlanta, Richmond
Stocks will try to maintain their upward momentum next week after a strong start to November, with Treasury yields falling from their highs and investors betting the Federal Reserve may well be done raising interest rates. Those gains came after the Fed kept rates unchanged for a second straight meeting, and as bond yields tumbled. Earnings and economic data Of course, investors will absorb some notable data next week. "Bond yields are the primary concern for investors and what drives bond yields are supply and demand," Stovall said. Initial Claims (11/04) Earnings: Wynn Resorts Friday, Nov. 10, 2023 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (November) 2 p.m. Treasury Budget (October)
Persons: Stocks, Sam Stovall, Stovall, FactSet, D.R, Horton, Jerome Powell, he's, they've, Dave Sekera, Cook, John Williams, Sekera, you've, Erika H, James, Ralph Lauren, Warner Organizations: Treasury, Reserve, Nasdaq, Fed, Stock Traders, International Monetary Fund, Morningstar Research Services, Duke University, New York Federal Reserve, Duke University ,, Economic Club of New, Harvard Club, Consumer Credit, Occidental Petroleum, eBay, Air Products, Chemicals, DC, Walt Disney Company, MGM Resorts International, Warner Bros, Wynn Resorts, Treasury Budget Locations: Michigan, U.S, Washington ,, Duke University , Durham, N.C, Economic Club of New York, Horton, Washington, a.m
April is the S & P 500's second-best month, with an average gain of 1.5%. Club stocks in November Following up on Wednesday's screen of October outperformers , we analyzed our portfolio using FactSet data to see how it fared recently during the historically strongest month of November. All but two of our stocks — Salesforce (CRM) and Coterra Energy (CTRA) — have had a positive average November performance since 2013. The only monthly decline came in November 2021, when the S & P 500 fell 0.83%. Coterra and Salesforce are the worst-performing Club stocks over the past 10 Novembers.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim, , it's, Locker, Morgan Stanley, PANW, It's, Salesforce, doesn't, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jim Cramer's, Victor J Organizations: Wall Street, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Stock Traders, Coterra Energy, Nvidia, FL, Palo Alto Networks, Starbucks, Palo, GE Healthcare, steadiest Club, Costco Wholesale, Costco, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Visitors, New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S, Palo
Heading into November, CNBC screened for Wall Street's favorite stocks out of the S & P 500, or stocks that met the following criteria: Consensus 12-month price target calls for a 20% or more upside. The average analyst surveyed by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv, has a consensus potential upside of 23% on T-Mobile . The consensus price target for the stock implies a forecast upside of almost 24%. In October, Morgan Stanley named the stock as one of its favorite stock picks in a slowing, late-cycle economy. Other names beloved by Wall Street and highlighted in our screen include Targa Resources , Halliburton and Centene .
Persons: Stocks, Wall, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CNBC, LSEG, Mobile, Energy, Oil, Wall, Resources, Halliburton, Centene
November is typically an outperforming month for Wall Street, according to data from the "Stock Trader's Almanac." The benchmark S & P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have each historically posted an average gain of 1.7% in November, dating back to 1950. Those moves make November the strongest month of the year for the S & P 500 and the second-best month for both the Nasdaq and the 30-stock Dow, according to the almanac. The S & P 500 has slipped roughly 3% so far and is on track for a third-straight month of declines . The string of monthly losses would mark the first such occurrence for the S & P 500 since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
Persons: Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, There's, there's, We've, doesn't, we're, they're Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: lockstep
After a miserable October, the setup for November is looking better. Barring a huge rally Tuesday, October will be the third-consecutive down month for the S & P 500 — that's unusual. 1 month for the S & P 500. It's just that stocks have sold off during earnings season because of the cautious outlook being projected on many earnings calls. The chances the S & P 500 would be down four months in a row is very small.
Persons: , That's, Nicholas Colas, Colas, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, It's, hasn't, Jonathan Krinsky Locations: DataTrek, Israel, BTIG
Despite a bleak month in October for the stock market, there may be some good news in store for at least four stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average . All three major market indexes are in the red this month, with the Dow off by 1.5% since the end of September. But investors may find some relief heading into the year end, since historically November has been a strong month for stocks. Analysts surveyed by LSEG have an average rating of hold on Caterpillar. Based on a consensus price target of $288, Caterpillar offers some 27% upside according to analyst estimates.
Persons: Dow, LSEG, Max, — CNBC's Christopher Hayes Organizations: Dow Jones, Stock, Dow, CNBC, Caterpillar, Analysts, LSEG, Boeing, Max . Insurance, UBS
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