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download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Whether it's the markets or the Federal Open Market Committee, no one seems to be getting their forecasts right. But if you want the closest thing to accuracy, French economist Christophe Barraud may be your best bet. One caveat is that Trump would need 60 seats in the Senate to implement policy changes smoothly, Barraud noted. Where uncertainty in a Trump presidency remains is on the geopolitical front, Barraud noted.
Persons: , Christophe Barraud, haven't, Barraud, it's, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, He's Organizations: Service, Federal, Market, Market Securities Monaco, Bloomberg, Business, Trump, Republican, Fed Locations: China, delinquencies, France, Italy, Ukraine, Russia
The results by three major U.S. banks kicked off the second-quarter earnings season. Maximize Item 1 of 2 Signs of JP Morgan Chase Bank, Citibank and Wells Fargo & Co. bank are seen in this combination photo from Reuters files. REUTERS/File Photo [1/2] Signs of JP Morgan Chase Bank, Citibank and Wells Fargo & Co. bank are seen in this combination photo from Reuters files. Wells Fargo CFO Mike Santomassimo said on a call that the bank has seen good activity across the investment grade desk, capital markets and the leverage finance business. Goldman's earnings are expected to more than double versus the second quarter of 2023, when they dropped to a three-year low.
Persons: Wells, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Mark Mason, Mason, JP Morgan, Jeremy Barnum, Mike Santomassimo, Moody's, Goldman, Noor Zainab Hussain, Manya Saini, Niket, Nupur Anand, Tatiana Bautzer, Saeed Azhar, Megan Davies, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Citigroup, JPMorgan, Citi, Equity, JP Morgan Chase Bank, Citibank, Wells Fargo & Co, Chevron Chevron, Morgan, Thomson Locations: Chevron Chevron The U.S, U.S, Bengaluru, New York
Take a look at this week's overbought names. Pittsburgh-based regional bank PNC Financial is among the week's most overbought names with an RSI of around 73. PNC YTD mountain PNC in 2024 Several real estate investment trusts, or REITs, are also at risk of a slide following this week's rally. American Tower , Alexandria Real Estate Equities and BXP are this week's three most overbought stocks. Shares of American Tower and Alexandria Real Estate Equities gained 5.9% and 6.9%, while BXP climbed more than 8%.
Persons: BXP, Corning Organizations: Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Depot, Caterpillar, CNBC Pro, Pittsburgh, PNC Financial, CPI, PNC, Alexandria Real, American, Management, Corning Locations: Big, Alexandria
But Mizuho expects things will play out differently, and instead raises its price target on the electric vehicle maker, citing challenges with its robotaxis. Morgan Stanley stands by Starbucks, keeping it at an overweight, but lowering its price target. Fong's $155 price target suggests shares can jump another 19.3% over Thursday's closing level, building on a year of monster gains. Analyst Doug Anmuth hiked the mega-cap technology stock's price target by $100 to $750, now implying 14.9% upside from Thursday's close. While he upped his price target by $50 to $197, that fresh target reflects a drop of 18.3%.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Cody Acree, Acree, — Alex Harring, Jon Tower, Chipotle, Alex Harring, BTIG, Marvin Fong, Fong, Carvana, CarMax, Doug Anmuth, Anmuth, Anmuth's, that's, he's, Christina Cheddar Berk, Vijay Rakesh, Rakesh, Joseph Spak, Spak Organizations: CNBC, UBS, Starbucks, JPMorgan, Netflix, Nvidia, Citi, Harbour, Tesla, robotaxis, Bloomberg Locations: Thursday's, premarket, China
Read previewRussia seems to have changed tactics in a Monday missile strike that struck targets across Ukraine, including a children's hospital, to "maximize damage," war analysts said. Rescuers are working at Ohmatdyt Children's Hospital that is strongly damaged during a Russian missile strike in Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 08, 2024. He said that out of the 44 Russian missiles launched, Ukraine was able to shoot down 33. Rescuers are continuing to work at the Okhmatdyt children's hospital. AdvertisementRussia's missiles struck targets in several cities, including the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv, on Monday, killing at least 39 people, per the latest figures.
Persons: , Yuriy Ihnat, Ihnat, Maxym, ISW Organizations: Service, Monday missile, Ukrainian Air Force, Facebook, Business, Ohmatdyt, Ukraine, Russian Ministry of Defense Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Kyiv, Washington, Ukrainian
The stock market will continue to hit record highs driven by reasonable valuations and continued earnings growth, according to Ed Yardeni. AdvertisementThe record rally in the stock market isn't close to being over, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Forward earnings expectations riseAnalysts' forward earnings expectations hit a record high last week, illustrating that the market rally is supported by what matters the most: profits. Market breadth will improveWhile the stock market rally has been driven mostly by a concentrated handful of companies, improving earnings breadth should lead to improving market breadth, according to Yardeni. There's a lot of companies that are benefiting from AI," Yardeni said.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, , Yardeni, Corning, let's Organizations: Service, CNBC
Stocks within the adoption frameworkWhile there could be a few angles one might use to determine where a company fits within AI's development, Goldman Sachs created their version of AI's adoption phases. Additional early winners of AI were mega-cap technology names that had steep earnings growth and attracted a lot of investors. Throughout 2023, there was a 53% gap in annual earnings growth between the top five AI names and the rest of the S&P 500. But as we enter 2025, Goldman estimates that the earnings growth between the big five and the rest of the market will tighten. The graph below demonstrates Goldman's forecast of a slowdown in earnings growth from the concentrated names and a modest pickup for the broader market.
Persons: , It's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Service, Business, Chief US, Nvidia, Microsoft, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Management
The bull case for small caps as the second half kicks off
  + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
By contrast, the S & P 500 has already reached Jefferies' bull case of 5,400, the strategist noted. The right catalyst For investors, the bull case for small caps that prevailed when the year began, still holds. More immediately, second-quarter earnings may prove a positive catalyst for small caps since expectations are so low, according to Jefferies' DeSanctis. On a trailing 12-month basis, the S & P 500 is trading at a multiple of 25 times earnings. Ultimately, however, many investors say that a rotation into small caps is coming, even if it hasn't happened yet.
Persons: Russell, Richard Nixon, Steven DeSanctis, Jefferies, DeSanctis, Brian Leonard, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Keeley Teton's Leonard, Something's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Jefferies, CNBC Pro, Fed, Advisors Locations: Keeley
CNBC Daily Open: Tesla powers S&P 500, Nasdaq to record highs
  + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Record highsThe S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs in a shortened session ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell as the latest economic data indicated the jobs market was cooling. Despite some officials advocating for potential rate hikes, the Federal Open Market Committee ultimately decided to hold rates steady. [PRO] Tesla bull caseWedbush analyst Dan Ives raised his Tesla price target to $300 from $275, with a bull case of $400 by 2025.
Persons: Nela Richardson, Elliott Management's, Elliott, Bob Jordan, Gary Kelly, JPMorgan's Kolanovic, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Dubravko, Dan Ives Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market Committee, ADP, Southwest Airlines Locations: U.S
Even better: The fact that the S & P 500 has performed so well this year makes the outlook sweeter. In years with the S & P 500 climbing more than 10% in the first six months, it jumped 7.9% in the typical second half. Presidential election years also typically bring returns in the second half of the year, according to Stovall's data. For the entire second half, the S & P 500 has climbed 3.5% on average. Some investors are wondering how much farther the S & P 500 can run up after notching all-time highs this year.
Persons: CFRA Research's Sam Stovall Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Despite the overly concentrated market that's piled into mega-cap technology stocks, the bulk of gains are still coming from that sector. While some investors fear that part of the market is too rich, they also aren't sure where else to find their gains. "So looking forward, we're somewhat concerned about the concentration right now in the market with the tech sector of the S&P, which is up 15%; the tech sector is up 27%". You want to ensure broad exposure to infrastructure, which means looking for an ETF that holds the sector's biggest names.
Persons: , Mimi Duff, Duff, we're, it's, there's Organizations: Service, GenTrust's, Business, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Dev, Infrastructure, International Energy Agency Locations: York, Washington, Maryland
"However, the longer these warning lights flash, the more painful the repair bill (market correction) will be," Johnson said. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Stocks have surged this year largely due to the outperformance of artificial intelligence mega-cap technology companies such as Nvidia. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are higher this year by roughly 15% and 18%, respectively. Just last week, the S & P 500 breached 5,500 for the first time. Johnson anticipates the S & P 500 will end the year at 5,050, or 7% lowerthan where it closed Tuesday.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson, Johnson Organizations: Nvidia, Nasdaq Locations: Tuesday's
Apple 's commitment to privacy could soon pay off by giving it a leg up over its competitors, according to Rosenblatt. That's because Apple, unlike AI predecessors, has put privacy front and center as part of its AI marketing push and architecture," Crockett wrote. "Apple laid out what it called a Private Cloud Compute architecture that keeps personal information on personal devices, and does not allow non-permissioned release of that information to anyone else, including Apple and third party LLMs," he added. An additional advantage for Apple comes from its AI approach, which allows the firm some immunity from cost pressures at hyperscalers. Against this backdrop, Crockett sees the scales "tipping the AI risk/reward in favor of Apple."
Persons: Rosenblatt, Barton Crockett, Crockett, Michael Bloom Organizations: Apple, hyperscalers
(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Tuesday's analyst calls and Wall Street chatter. Stifel opened coverage on Tesla with a buy rating and an ambitious price target as it sees multiple growth opportunities for the company. Crockett also increased his price target by $64 to $260, which now suggests shares can rally 24.4% from Tuesday's closing price. Goldman also hiked his price target by $7 to $52, now reflecting upside potential of 17.7% over Tuesday's close. Analyst Stephen Gengaro initiated the electric vehicle maker at a buy rating with a $265 price target.
Persons: Rosenblatt, Barton Crockett, Crockett, — Alex Harring, Atif Malik, Malik, Blackwell, Wolfe, Robinhood, Steven Chubak, Chubak, Jason Warnick, That's, Keith Gill, Katja Jancic, Jancic, Brian Ossenbeck, Ossenbeck, Campbell, Ken Goldman, hasn't, Goldman, underperformance, Stifel, Stephen Gengaro, Gengaro, Alex Harring Organizations: CNBC, Federal Express, JPMorgan, FedEx, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Android, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Citi, Wolfe Research, . Steel, BMO Capital Markets, U.S, Steel, Nippon Steel, Nippon, US, U.S . Steel, CPB, Tesla Locations: Tuesday's, Japan, U.S
AdvertisementA new type of exchange-traded fund has made waves over the past year: the leveraged single-stock ETF. The T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF is up 425% year-to-date. The GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA ETF, the T-REX 2X Long Nvidia Daily Target ETF, and the Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares ETF have amassed a collective $5 billion in assets under management. AdvertisementHowever, that success hasn't exactly translated into the other single-stock leveraged ETFs that target popular mega-cap technology stocks. The T-REX 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF, the Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares, and the GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF have a combined $1.5 billion in assets under management.
Persons: , I've, Tesla Organizations: Nvidia, Service, NVIDIA Daily Target, Nvidia Daily Target ETF, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Target ETF Locations: NVDL
The risk of an economic slowdown now outweighs the risk of inflation, according to Morgan Stanley. But Morgan Stanley worries that the poor breadth of the market , measuring the number of advancing stocks against those declining, is a sign that slowing economic growth is becoming a bigger risk than stubbornly high inflation. To be sure, the Morgan Stanley strategist does not expect weak breadth to herald weak returns. Here are some of the quality large-cap and defensive stocks with strong upward earnings revisions that can outperform, according to Morgan Stanley. Burlington shares are higher by 25% this year, and the stock is overweight-rated by Morgan Stanley.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Russell, Bernstein, BURL, Aneesha Sherman, Morgan, Jefferies, HubSpot Organizations: Wall, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Monster Beverage, Beverage, Nvidia Locations: Burlington
UPS shares were unchanged in premarket trading. Planet Fitness — The budget-friendly gym chain climbed 3.1% after TD Cowen named the stock a top pick and raised its rating to buy from hold. Affirm — The buy-now-pay-later stock jumped 3.2% on the heels of Goldman Sachs' initiation at a buy rating. IBM — The legacy tech giant moved 1.4% higher after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a buy rating. Cinemark — Shares popped 3.3% after Roth MKM upgraded the American movie theater chain to buy from neutral, citing "meaningful box office improvement."
Persons: Eli Lilly — ResMed, Eli Lilly's, Eli Lilly, Jefferies, TD Cowen, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Roth MKM, , Michelle Fox, Sarah Min, Jesse Pound Organizations: Coyote Logistics, UPS, RXO, Coyote, Nvidia, Carrier, Citi, Ferrari —, UBS, Anheuser, Busch InBev —, IBM
Driving the outperformance in the DEMZ fund is its concentration in mega-cap technology stocks. The top five stocks owned by the DEMZ fund are Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Loews, and Costco. About 36% of the DEMZ fund is invested in technology stocks, compared to just 3% for the MAGA fund. The top five stocks owned by the MAGA fund are Vistra, Howmet Aerospace, Charter Communications, Amgen, and Garmin. Another area where the DEMZ ETF is beating the MAGA ETF is in assets under management, with about $36 million invested in the former and about $21 million invested in the latter.
Persons: MAGA, DEMZ, , outperformance Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Service, Democrat, Core, GOP, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Loews, Costco, Howmet Aerospace, Charter Communications, Garmin, MAGA
Once-obscure chipmaker Broadcom has enjoyed a record-setting rally that's pushed its market capitalization inches behind Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate and its portfolio of household names and economic bellwethers. When Broadcom hit an all-time high earlier this week, its market capitalization briefly surpassed drug maker Eli Lilly's. As of Tuesday's close, Broadcom had a market cap of $839 billion, right behind Eli Lilly's $845 billion and Berkshire's $882 billion. Omaha-based Berkshire is currently No.7 in market value, after a cluster of megacap technology giants. Big AI beneficiary Broadcom, meanwhile, is seeing strong demand from customers in need of high-capacity chips that can power complex AI applications.
Persons: that's, Warren Buffett's, Eli Lilly's, Hock Tan, Steve Sosnick, Tesla, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Broadcom, Warren, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Apple, Berkshire, BNSF Railway, Geico Insurance, U.S ., PetroChina, Bank of America, Interactive Brokers, VMware Locations: Palo Alto , California, Omaha, Berkshire, U.S, Saudi Aramco
But investors focusing on those big three may be missing some compelling breakouts in the sector, according to the charts. Microsoft is up a pedestrian 10% since then, but combined, they've helped propel the SPDR Technology ETF (XLK) to a new all-time high. Indeed, there's nothing wrong with riding a trend, but many times a long uptrend starts with a pattern breakout. And starting in 2023, the following combination has produced the best results: rallying from a higher low as the stock's 14-day Relative Strength Index bottoms near 50. It's never perfect, but this setup has presented favorable risk-reward scenarios more often than not, and each ensuing bounce eventually resulted in higher highs.
Persons: they've, ROP, it's, It's, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, SPDR Technology, Roper Technologies, Technology Locations: Here's
CNBC Daily Open: Boeing's 'moment of reckoning'
  + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Immigrants, jobs and inflationImmigration has helped the U.S. job market sustain a strong run in recent months without reigniting inflation, economists and analysts say. This dynamic — a hot job market and cooling inflation — is in part the result of increased inflows of immigrants. The conglomerate sold 1.3 million shares for $39.8 million, reducing its holding to 6.9%. [PRO] S&P 500 to hit 6,000Evercore ISI predicts the stock market will soar to unprecedented heights, setting a new year-end target for the S&P 500 at a record 6,000.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, CNBC's Rebecca Picciotto, Ryan Cohen, Keith Gill, Matthew Bartolini, Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, Tesla Organizations: CNBC, Microsoft, Apple, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Minneapolis Federal, GameStop, Fund, Nvidia, SPDR Locations: U.S, SPDR Americas, Berkshire, BYD
At the turn of the year, the market was banking on six rate cuts beginning in March. Advertisement"The valuation ratio from small caps to large caps right now is at a 24-year low. This is probably one of the best entry points into small and mid-cap stocks," Ewing said. He added that when the Fed starts cutting rates, small caps have historically outperformed. Morningstar holds steady to its expectation of two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for 2024.
Persons: Jerome Powell, James St . Aubin, Brett Ewing, you've, we're, Ewing, haven't, David Sekera, Russell, Sekera Organizations: Service, Federal, Market Committee, Sierra Funds, Fed, Morningstar
The dominant e-commerce platform has a momentum score, measuring 12-month and one-month relative strength, of 53%, and its earnings estimates have risen 17% since the end of March. Footwear maker Deckers also made the cut, with a 73% momentum score and a 6% swing in upward earnings revisions. Sports betting stock DraftKings also appeared on the Wolfe screen, with a 73% momentum score and a 270% increase in earnings estimates since the end of March. The majority of analysts polled by LSEG have a buy rating with a price target suggesting shares can surge more than 38%. But he called those worries "overdone" while pointing to earnings upside as a catalyst for shares to continue rallying.
Persons: Chris Senyek, Russell, Joseph Civello, Wolfe, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Grambling Organizations: Wolfe Research, Wolfe, LSEG, Amazon, Truist Securities, Sports, Grambling Locations: California, Illinois
The time may have finally come for small-cap stocks to have their moment in the sun, according to Jefferies. "We have seen some improvement in absolute and relative performance and think we could have hit an inflection point," wrote Jefferies strategist Steven DeSanctis. Still, he said there's one caveat: small-cap earnings look weak on an absolute basis. "As the year rolls along, small-cap earnings are set to broaden, accelerate, and play a game of catch-up with large." Jefferies' price target of $140 is nearly 32% higher than where shares of ArcBest closed on Thursday afternoon.
Persons: Jefferies, Steven DeSanctis, Schrodinger Organizations: Nvidia, Boston Beer, Boston, Software, pharma, . Trucking Locations: ArcBest
Stock-picking hedge funds have become more selective on megacap technology stocks after their drastic rallies, according to VerityData. The research firm identified "fundamental" hedge funds that disclosed 10 to 300 holdings and aggregate holdings of at least $100 million in recent 13F filings. Microsoft continued to be the most popular stock among those hedge funds, extending its No.1 status to a seventh quarter, according to the data. Several hedge funds also flocked to Nvidia despite its jaw-dropping advance over the past year, the data said. Less popular On the flip side, hedge funds dialed back their exposure to Alphabet and Apple last quarter.
Persons: Tesla, weathers Organizations: Microsoft, Nvidia
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