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Oil up as supply tightness view offsets concerns from rate hikes
  + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Oil prices rose on Thursday as investors focused on expectations of tighter supplies from top oil producers, helping reverse earlier losses that were driven by worries that the hike in interest rates by the U.S. will hurt demand. The promise of economic stimulus in China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer, also lent support to the market. Brent crude futures were up 36 cents, or 0.4%, at $83.28 barrel by 0101 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude rose to $79.26, up 48 cents, or 0.6%. The European Central Bank is also expected to raise interest rates for the ninth time in a row on Thursday, which may not be the end to the policy tightening amid persistent inflation. Oil prices have rallied for four weeks, buoyed by signs of tighter supplies, largely linked to output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as Chinese authorities' pledges to shore up the world's second-biggest economy.
Persons: Cushing, Brent Organizations: TotalEnergies, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ANZ Research, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Locations: Leuna, Germany, U.S, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia
The world's most populous country aspires to leapfrog to the status of a developed nation, riding on the unprecedented demographic dividend, which demands an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of around 8% for the next 25 years. It was forecast to grow 6.5% next fiscal year, with expectations of 6.2% growth this quarter, followed by 6.0% and 5.5%. "I think 6.0% to 6.5% is a very achievable and a very conservative forecast for India's growth trajectory," Nim added. The remaining six said the PLI scheme, which allocated billions of rupees as incentives from the Union budget in 2023-24, will have no impact. While India has a lot more ground to cover to replace China as the world's manufacturing hub, some economists acknowledged the PLI scheme was a step in the right direction.
Persons: Dhiraj Nim, Nim, Ajay Banga, Radhika Piplani, PLI, Piplani, Suman Chowdhury, Milounee Purohit, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, David Holmes Organizations: ANZ Research, World, Capital Advisors, Union, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, People's Republic, India
TOKYO, July 19 (Reuters) - Global oil prices rose on Wednesday, boosted by China's pledge to support economic growth, tighter supply from Russia and on lower weekly U.S. crude oil inventories. "Crude oil gained amid signs of further tightening across the market. Russia appears to be making good on its promise to reduce supply," ANZ Research said in a client note on Wednesday. U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories all fell last week, according to market sources citing figures by American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, on Tuesday, with crude stocks down by about 800,000 barrels. The market is expecting the weekly inventory report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration later on Wednesday which is expected to show further a drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories, providing some more support to prices, ANZ's note added.
Persons: China's, Brent, Katya Golubkova, Lincoln Organizations: U.S, West Texas, ANZ Research, American Petroleum Institute, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Russia, .
Both Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures , were trading slightly lower. Separately, Shell has suspended loadings of Nigeria's Forcados crude oil due to a potential leak at a terminal. Protests in Libya alone could take away more than 250,000 barrels of oil per day from the market, ANZ Research said. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's biggest oil exporters, agreed this month to deepen oil cuts in place since November last year, providing further support to crude prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday upgraded its oil demand forecast for 2023, adding it expected demand to grow 2.2% in 2024.
Persons: Brent, Edward Moya, Sudarshan Varadhan, Katya Golubkova, Jamie Freed, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Kim Coghill Organizations: Shell, Brent, . West Texas, ANZ Research, OANDA, of, Petroleum, National Australia Bank, U.S ., U.S . Federal, Thomson Locations: Libya, Nigeria, SINGAPORE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, TOKYO
Separately, Shell has suspended loadings of Nigeria's Forcados crude oil due to a potential leak at a terminal. Protests in Libya alone could take away more than 250,000 barrels of oil per day from the market, ANZ Research said. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's biggest oil exporters, agreed this month to deepen oil cuts in place since November last year, providing further support to crude prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday upgraded its oil demand forecast for 2023, adding it expected demand to grow 2.2% in 2024. U.S. consumer prices rose modestly in June at the smallest annual increase rate in more than two years as inflation continued to subside.
Persons: Edward Moya, Katya Golubkova, Jamie Freed, Muralikumar Organizations: Shell, Brent, . West Texas, ANZ Research, OANDA, of, Petroleum, National Bank of Australia, U.S ., U.S . Federal, Thomson Locations: Libya, Nigeria, SINGAPORE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, TOKYO
Oil prices up on tighter supply, lower U.S. inflation
  + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Oil prices rose on Friday on support from tighter supply amid issues in Libya and Nigeria and easing U.S. inflation, which markets hope may bring an end to interest rate hikes in the world's biggest economy. U.S. consumer prices rose modestly in June at the smallest annual increase rate in more than two years as inflation continued to subside. Producer prices also barely rose in June, and the annual increase was the smallest in nearly three years. Separately, Shell has suspended loadings of Nigeria's Forcados crude oil due to a potential leak at a terminal. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's biggest oil exporters, this month agreed to deepen oil cuts in place since November last year, providing further support to crude prices.
Organizations: Raffles, Brent, . West Texas, U.S . Federal, ANZ Research, Shell Locations: Yantai, East China's Shandong province, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Russia
June 21 (Reuters) - Oil prices rebounded early on Wednesday, recovering after two straight sessions of losses, as expectations of hawkish Fed talk later in the afternoon and possible U.S. crude stock draws in outweighed China demand worries. Concerns about demand recovery in China, the world's top oil importer, limited price gains as its economy struggles. "The only reason why I think prices are not climbing (steadily) yet is because the data from China is still unclear. "As for the Fed (meeting), that is also uncertain but with latest inflation data coming in a 4%, they have room to be dovish," Galimberti added. Looking to boost growth, China on Tuesday cut its benchmark loan prime rates (LPR) for the first time in 10 months, with a smaller-than-expected 10-basis-point reduction in the five-year LPR.
Persons: Brent, Powell, Jerome Powell, Claudio Galimberti, Galimberti, Katya Golubkova, Trixie Yap, Sonali Paul, Kim Coghill Organizations: Fed, . West Texas, ANZ Research, Market Committee, U.S . Federal, Federal Reserve, Reuters, American Petroleum Institute, Energy, Administration, Thomson Locations: China, Washington, U.S, Tokyo, Singapore
Oil extends declines on China growth woes, firmer dollar
  + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices weakened on Wednesday, extending falls to a third straight day, as the dollar strengthened on a U.S. housing market recovery while fears persisted that monetary stimulus may not be enough to revive growth in China. A firmer dollar weighs on oil demand as it makes the commodity more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. The market remains concerned about a faltering recovery in China, the world's top oil importer. "Investors remained impatient with China's efforts to boost economic growth," ANZ Research said in a client note on Wednesday. Five analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude stockpiles fell by about 400,000 barrels in the week to June 16.
Persons: Brent, homebuilding, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Montebello Oil, . West Texas, Federal, Investors, ANZ Research, U.S . Federal, Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Traders, American Petroleum Institute, Energy, Administration, Reuters Locations: Montebello, Montebello , California, U.S, China, Washington
Oil prices mixed ahead of China lending benchmarks decision
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday ahead of a decision on lending benchmarks by China, with the world's second-largest economy widely expected to cut key rates to shore up a slowing recovery. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was unchanged at $71.29 and there was no settlement on Monday due to a public holiday in the United States. The WTI crude contract due on July 20 was down 58 cents to $71.35 per barrel. On the supply side, Iran's crude exports and oil output have hit new highs in 2023 despite U.S. sanctions. The bank cut its average estimate for the price of Brent to $81 per barrel this year from an earlier $90 a barrel forecast.
Persons: Brent, Jerome Powell Organizations: . West Texas, ANZ Research, U.S, European Central Bank, . Federal, Organization of, Petroleum, OPEC, JPMorgan Locations: China, United States, Russia, Moscow, OPEC, Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela
The rate will drop to 1.9% from 2%, according to the People’s Bank of China. The rate cut reveals “growing concerns among policymakers” about the health of China’s recovery, Capital Economics analysts said on Tuesday. “The … rate cut came earlier and sharper than our and market expectations, highlighting the sense of urgency to alleviate economic momentum and business confidence,” said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy for Standard Chartered Bank. That rate cut also came as a surprise and followed a week of turmoil in global financial markets triggered by the failure of some regional US banks. In the language of China’s policymakers, that implies a bias towards easing monetary policy, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.
Persons: , Becky Liu, Zhaopeng Xing, Betty Wang, Yi Gang, Larry Hu, “ Governor Yi Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Capital, Standard Chartered Bank, PMI, ANZ Research, Macquarie Group, Locations: Hong Kong, China
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 97 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $71.86. A stronger dollar can weigh on oil demand by making the fuel more expensive for holders of other currencies. High interest rates boost borrowing costs, which can slow the economy and reduce oil demand. The strength of April U.S. economic data in addition to optimism about the debt ceiling negotiations have strengthened market expectations of a further hike, ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday. Another factor that could reduce oil demand was a fire in Mexico at the Salina Cruz refinery owned by Mexican state oil company Pemex.
Companies Us Fuel International Inc FollowMay 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Thursday as traders warily watched for signs of progress on talks to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, after surging in the previous session on optimism over U.S. fuel demand. The U.S. dollar held near a seven-week peak on Thursday, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to reach a deal soon to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and avoid an economically catastrophic default. Also weighing on prices was the increased possibility of another interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The strength of April U.S. economic data, in addition to optimism about the debt ceiling negotiations and the health of regional banking stocks overnight have strengthened market expectations of a further hike, ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday.
Oil prices ease on caution over U.S. debt ceiling talks
  + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Thursday as traders warily watched for signs of progress on talks to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, after surging nearly 3% in the previous session on optimism over U.S. fuel demand. President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to reach a deal soon to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and avoid an economically catastrophic default. "Crude needs a clear signal that the U.S. economy will avoid economic catastrophe or that China's recovery is picking up steam," he said. Also weighing on prices was the increased probability of an interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The strength of April economic data in the U.S., in addition to improving optimism about the debt ceiling negotiations and the health of regional banking stocks overnight have strengthened market expectations of a further hike, ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday.
After a tough few months, lithium — a battery metal crucial in electric vehicles — is back in the spotlight as prices start to rebound. By the end of last week, however, lithium prices had started to bounce back. "Lithium prices in China gained for the first time this year on signs demand growth may be finally gathering pace … [and] amid thinning inventories across the supply chain," the ANZ Research analysts added. Canadian miner Sigma Lithium stood out for getting the highest potential upside from analysts at 155%, and a buy rating from 75% of analysts. Stocks that received a 100% buy rating included American EV battery maker Microvast Holdings and Australian miner Piedmont Lithium .
"The downside pressure on oil is that China's economic recovery is not really promising, clouding the demand outlook on fuel consumption," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets. China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell in April, official data showed on Sunday, the first contraction since December in the manufacturing purchasing managers' index. China's industrial and economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was expected to boost demand this year. Despite China's weak manufacturing data, there are positive signs of recovery based on spending during the five-day Labour Day holiday in the world's largest oil importer, said analysts in an ANZ Research note. Interest rate increases by inflation-fighting central banks could impact oil by slowing economic growth and denting energy demand.
Brent crude was up by 7 cents to $79.38 a barrel by 0425 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 11 cents to $75.77 a barrel. China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell in April, official data showed on Sunday, the first contraction since December in the manufacturing purchasing managers' index. China's industrial and economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was expected to boost demand this year. "Crude oil fell after weak economic data from China raised concerns about a patchy recovery," said analysts in an ANZ Research note, referring to China's manufacturing activity data. Meanwhile, a Monday poll showed that U.S. crude oil stockpiles are expected to have fallen for a third consecutive week, providing some support to the market.
The Fed is expected to increase interest rates by another 25 basis points this week. The U.S. central bank has raised its policy rate by 475 basis points since March of last year from the near-zero level to the current 4.75%-5.00% range. In the week ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to extend a rate hike pause on Tuesday and the European Central Bank could surprise with an outsized half-point increase on Thursday. Brent crude has been tracking broader markets in recent sessions, with a slew of economic data creating more uncertainty about the outlook," ANZ Research said in a client note. Reporting by Katya Golubkova; Editing by Kenneth MaxwellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
U.S. consumer spending was flat in March as an increase in outlays on services was offset by a decline in goods, but persistent strength in underlying inflation pressures could see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again. The Fed is expected to increase interest rates by another 25 basis points this week. On Friday, oil prices mostly rose over 2% after energy firms posted positive earnings, and U.S. data showed crude output was declining while fuel demand was growing. Fuel demand rose to nearly 20 million bpd, its highest since November, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA data last week showed U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell more than expected as demand for the motor fuel picked up ahead of the peak summer driving season.
An acceleration in consumer spending was offset by businesses liquidating inventories in anticipation of weaker demand later this year amid higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) declined to 49.2 from 51.9 in March, official data showed on Sunday, slipping below the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in activity on a monthly basis. Brent crude has been tracking broader markets in recent sessions, with a slew of economic data creating more uncertainty about the outlook," ANZ's note said. On Friday, oil prices mostly rose over 2% after energy firms posted positive earnings, and U.S. data showed crude output was declining while fuel demand was growing. Fuel demand rose to nearly 20 million bpd, its highest since November, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
TOKYO, April 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Thursday, paring earlier losses that were fuelled by U.S. recession fear and increased Russian oil exports dulling the impact of OPEC production cuts. "Crude oil slumped, as prospects of weaker economic growth offset a bullish inventory report," ANZ Research said in a client note. "The market is also questioning the validity of OPEC's recent production cut amid strong exports of Russian crude." Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed U.S. crude inventories fell last week by 5.1 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' average forecast of a 1.5 million drop in a Reuters poll. Oil loading from Russia's western ports in April will be the highest since 2019, above 2.4 million barrels per day, despite Moscow's pledge to cut output, sources have said.
Oil prices rose on Thursday, paring earlier losses that were fueled by U.S. recession fear and increased Russian oil exports dulling the impact of OPEC production cuts. "Crude oil slumped, as prospects of weaker economic growth offset a bullish inventory report," ANZ Research said in a client note. "The market is also questioning the validity of OPEC's recent production cut amid strong exports of Russian crude." Energy Information Administration data showed U.S. crude inventories fell last week by 5.1 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' average forecast of a 1.5 million drop in a Reuters poll. Oil loading from Russia's western ports in April will be the highest since 2019, above 2.4 million barrels per day, despite Moscow's pledge to cut output, sources have said.
China has an inflation problem. It’s way too low
  + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
That’s raising the specter of a tailspin of falling prices and wages from which the economy may struggle to recover. “Our core view is that China’s economy is deflationary,” wrote Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ Research, last week, soon after China released its first-quarter GDP growth figures. Instead of spending money, people are hoarding cash at a record rate. “Even with a conservative estimate, 500 billion yuan in consumption vouchers will drive one trillion yuan in overall consumption, ” Li said in a video posted on his Weibo social media account on Tuesday. In return, the government could receive at least 300 billion yuan through taxes generated by the increase in spending, he said“So it only takes 200 billion yuan in spending for the central government to drive one trillion yuan in consumption,” he said.
TOKYO, April 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday as muted U.S. economic data and expectations of interest rate hikes pushed up the U.S. dollar, prompting fear of a stronger dollar hurting global oil demand by making it more expensive. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) for May delivery lost 28 cents, or 0.35%, to trade at $78.88 at 0005 GMT. "This unsettled markets, magnifying recent concerns that monetary tightening has weakened demand for oil. , , ,The crude stockpile decline was far steeper than analysts' estimate of 1.1 million barrels, and the American Petroleum Institute's estimates late on Tuesday of 2.7 million barrels. "WTI crude is back below the $80 level and it could continue drifting lower if the strong dollar trade resumes," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a client note.
West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude fell 33 cents, also 0.4%, to $80.53 a barrel. In Europe, European Central Bank officials are also wary of inflation and suggesting interest rates must keep rising. Meanwhile, the economy of top crude oil importer China grew by a faster-than-expected 4.5% in the first quarter, while the country's oil refinery throughput rose to record levels in March, data showed. ,Adding more pressure on oil benchmarks is Asian refiners continuing to seize Russian crude in April. India and China have snapped up the vast majority of Russian oil so far in April at prices above the Western price cap of $60 per barrel, according to traders and Reuters calculations.
April 19 (Reuters) - Oil drifted lower on Wednesday as the market weighed potential interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve that could slow growth and dampen oil consumption, offsetting falling U.S. inventories and strong Chinese economic data. The U.S. Federal Reserve likely has one more interest rate rise in store to fight inflation, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the economy of top crude oil importer China grew by a faster-than-expected 4.5% in the first quarter, while the country's oil refinery throughput rose to record levels in March, data showed. ,Adding more pressure on the oil benchmarks is that Asian refiners continues to seize Russian crude in April. India and China have snapped up the vast majority of Russian oil so far in April at prices above the Western price cap of $60 per barrel, according to traders and Reuters calculations.
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