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☆ Dollar weakens as Powell's testimony offers little surprise; sterling steady
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar languished near a one-month low against a basket of currencies on Thursday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his usual messaging at his semi-annual testimony, offering little room for surprise. The U.S. dollar index last stood at 102.05 in early Asia trade, not far from its recent five-week low of 102.00. Elsewhere, sterling rose 0.02% to $1.2770, not far from a one-year high of $1.2849 hit last week. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar slipped 0.06% to 141.82, having touched a seven-month peak of 142.37 yen in the previous session. The Japanese currency has come under renewed pressure as the Bank of Japan continues to stick to its ultra-dovish stance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Sterling, Powell, didn't, Carol Kong, BoE, Seiji Adachi Organizations: Federal, Bank of, Capitol, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ANZ, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Asia, Powell

☆ Yen falls after BOJ stands pat; hawkish ECB and soft US data dent dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The decision by the BOJ to keep its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its 10-year bond yield around 0% was widely expected. Even so, it was enough to pressure the yen further with the Japanese currency falling about 0.3% against the dollar to 140.72 . That and a run of soft U.S. economic data saw the dollar fall broadly as traders scaled back their bets on how high U.S. interest rates would need to rise. The euro stood near a one-month high at $1.0937, having surged over 1% on Thursday following the rate hike and hawkish forward guidance from the ECB. Production at U.S. factories almost stalled in May as manufacturing struggled under the weight of higher interest rates, while U.S. import prices similarly fell last month.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Sterling, Rae Wee, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, ECB, Deutsche Bank, Bank of England, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor Department, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, United States

☆ The market isn't buying the Fed's tough talk on interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Try as the Federal Reserve did Wednesday to send the message that multiple interest rate hikes are ahead, the market wasn't buying it. Indeed, market pricing reflected a high level of skepticism that the Fed is going to do much more in terms of policy tightening. That came even though 12 of the 18 FOMC members said they envision rate hikes totaling 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, by the end of 2023. "Fed Funds Futures aren't buying to [Wednesday's] FOMC SEP guidance of 2 more rate hikes this year," wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Powell's news conference after the decision to skip a rate hike at this week's meeting went in multiple directions.

Persons: Quincy Krosby, Jerome, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, that's, Matthew Luzzetti, Christopher Waller, James Bullard Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, Dow Jones Industrial, DataTrek, Empire, Manufacturing Survey, Deutsche Bank, Louis Locations: St

☆ Dollar retreats on jump in US jobless claims; eyes on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The two-year yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, steadied at 4.5210%. So that'll show up in payrolls numbers and jobless claims and these sorts of numbers," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. The Fed takes centre stage, with money markets leaning toward a pause, though have priced in a 25% chance that the U.S. central bank delivers a 25bp rate hike. "A slowing U.S. economy gives the Fed room to pause after 500bp of consecutive interest rate rises," said Guillermo Felices, global investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. The Canadian dollar last bought C$1.3365, not far from its one-month high of C$1.3321 hit on Wednesday, while the Aussie similarly stood near a roughly one-month peak at $0.6711.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, Guillermo Felices, Thursday's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Fed, Reuters, ECB, Canadian, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Kiwibank

☆ Dollar steady as traders consider Fed, global rates outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The increased expectations that U.S. and global interest rates may have further to rise has come on the back of surprise rate increases by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this week. The Canadian dollar was last steady at C$1.3365 to the greenback, after rising to a one-month top of C$1.3321 in the previous session. The U.S. dollar index dipped slightly to 104.02, though strayed not too far from an over two-month high hit last week, on the back of higher Treasury yields. Money markets are pricing in a 29% chance that the Fed raises rates by 25bps at its policy meeting next week. "Markets have raised their FOMC rate hike expectations following a surprise Bank of Canada rate hike," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Persons: Edward Moya, Carol Kong, Ray Attrill Organizations: Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, BoC, Reserve Bank of Australia, Wednesday, Canadian, U.S, European Central Bank, 25bps, of Canada, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank Locations: Chicago, Asia

☆ Greenback gains, Aussie jumps on RBA rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, June 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar gained against the euro and yen on Tuesday as investors focused on the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking rates, while the Aussie jumped after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised with a rate increase. “We’re waiting to see if inflation is going to provide some upside surprises,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. Fed funds futures traders see the Fed as likely to then resume rate increases, with a 65% chance of an at least 25 basis-point increase in July, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The euro was last down 0.15% against the dollar at $1.0694 and the greenback gained 0.06% to 139.64 yen . ========================================================Currency bid prices at 3:00PM (1900 GMT)Additional reporting by Samuel Indyk in London; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: “, ”, Edward Moya, we’re, Moya, Chris Turner, Samuel Indyk, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: YORK, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, New York Fed, Bank of, BoC, U.S, Canadian, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, London

The Aussie was last up 0.6% at $0.6656, after leaping as high as $0.6686, a level last seen on May 16. "For this week it will be wait-and-see mode for euro-dollar," Al-Saraf said, expecting euro-dollar to remain rangebound around 1.07. Meanwhile, the dollar was flat at 139.58 yen , while sterling fell 0.2% to $1.2410. Elsewhere, bitcoin attempted to find its feet around $25,700, after tumbling 5.1% on Monday in its biggest drop since April 19. Reporting by Samuel Indyk and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill and Ed OsmondOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Sean Callow, Chris Turner, Mohamad Al, Saraf, bitcoin, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Ed Osmond Organizations: Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S, Westpac, Bank of, BoC, Canadian, CENTRAL FOCUS, Market, Danske Bank, Fed, European Central Bank, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Australia hikes minimum wage as living costs surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Steven Saphore/File PhotoSYDNEY, June 2 (Reuters) - Australia will raise the minimum wage by 5.75% from July 1 as families grapple with soaring living costs, a decision that businesses and some economists say risks further stoking inflation and interest rates. The independent Fair Work Commission (FWC) on Friday decided on a 5.75% pay rise for workers on awards with wages linked to movement in the minimum wage. It also made a technical reclassification for the national minimum wage, which the union says will take the increase to 8.6% for the lowest-paid employees, about 0.7% of the workforce. "Following several recent developments, including the outcome of today's minimum wage decision, we are adding a 25bp hike to our RBA profile in June and another 25bp in July." "Today's increase means these workers can keep their heads above water and not have to cut back even further."

Persons: Steven Saphore, Lin Ong, Philip Lowe, Taylor Nugent, Adam Hatcher, Hatcher, Andrew McKellar, Sally McManus, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, RBC Capital Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank, Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Australian Council of Trade Unions, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Lincoln

☆ Bank of England to take Bank Rate to 5.00% next quarter as inflation proves sticky - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

British government bond prices tumbled in the days after the data was released as investors added to bets high inflation will force the BoE to carry on raising interest rates, while lenders have been withdrawing mortgage deals. Meanwhile, 27 of 47 saw Bank Rate at 5.00% or higher by end-September. Bank Rate was seen sitting at 5.00% until early next year, hitting the wallets of indebted consumers already feeling the pinch from a cost of living crisis. All but three of 39 common contributors to this poll and the last one lifted their year-end prediction. The Bank needs to push back against the risk high inflation proves unexpectedly sticky, and may need to raise interest rates further, Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel said last week.

Persons: BoE, Simon Wells, Kallum Pickering, Jonathan Haskel, Jonathan Cable, Mumal Rathore, Anitta Sunil, Ross Finley, Chizu Organizations: Bank of England, of England, HSBC, Bank, Monetary, Thomson Locations: Berenberg

☆ Bank of England to take Bank Rate to 5.00% next quarter as inflation proves sticky, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Bank of England set for 12th straight interest rate hike, but the outlook remains murky
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. "All this, and updated projections, should be consistent with our call for a final 25bp hike at the June meeting to a terminal rate of 4.75%." Updated forecasts Alongside the rate decision, the MPC will update its forecasts on Thursday. "Thus, while our base case remains for a final hike in June, we see risks that they skip this meeting and deliver the final hike in August," Ardagno's team said. Deutsche Bank Senior Economist Sanjay Raja echoed the projections for a 7-2 split in favor of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, followed by another quarter-point in June.

☆ POLL RBA to hike rates further this year, say economists in snap poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On May 2, the RBA startled economists and financial markets with a hike. Our expectation is that the final rate hike occurs in August. Over 85% of respondents, 25 of 29, expected no hike from the central bank at its June 6 meeting, while four predicted a 25 basis point hike. Among major local banks, only ANZ forecast a 25 basis point hike in Q3 while Westpac and CBA predicted an extended pause. Median forecasts showed the cash rate remaining at 4.10% until year-end, 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in an April poll.

☆ European Central Bank set to slow rate hikes as financial conditions tighten rapidly
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank is expected to lift its benchmark rate by a smaller step of 25 basis points Thursday, as core inflation declines and its own survey data points to much tighter financial conditions in the region. The ECB has kept interest at zero, and below, for years, and has launched bond-buying program like the APP (Asset Purchase Program) and PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) in an effort to simulate lending. On the other hand, PEPP was a more flexible bond purchase program introduced during the coronavirus pandemic. "It's a positive sign that core inflation has fallen for the first time in a long time. In addition, the ECB's bank lending survey pointed to an exceptionally large drop in credit demand amid tighter lending criteria, adding to the case for a smaller rate hike.

☆ Jim Cramer talks buying opprotunities after Fed's 25bp rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJim Cramer talks buying opprotunities after Fed's 25bp rate hike'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer talks stock buying opportunities after the central bank hiked rates for the tenth time in a row.

And an ECB survey of lending data for March revealed banks were tightening access to credit even as demand for it from borrowers collapsed, resulting in the slowest pace of growth in credit to households since 2018. And it was mirrored by March lending data, which showed growth in corporate credit slow to 5.2% year on year. "With the next big TLTRO expiring towards the end of June amid further key rate hikes, credit demand will be further dampened," Martin Wolburg, senior economist at Generali Investments, said. There was a smaller decrease in demand for consumer credit and other lending to households. Lending data also showed the annual increase in lending to households slowing to 2.9% from 3.2%.

☆ Euro zone core inflation slows unexpectedly in April, blurring the picture for rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Headline inflation came in at 7% for last month, according to Eurostat, after it dropped to 6.9% in March. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, stood at 5.6% in April — from 5.7% in March. Analysts polled by Reuters had estimated a figure of 7% for headline inflation and 5.7% for core. Rather than providing some clarity on how much the central bank might raise rates by, the latest numbers have blurred the picture somewhat. Market players have been debating whether the central bank will hike Thursday by 50 or 25 basis points.

☆ 'Welcome to the recession:' Most of Wall Street still sees trouble ahead for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In fact, excluding the drag from inventories, GDP growth actually would have been closer to 3.4%, well above trend. However, most economists and strategists on Wall Street think the U.S. economy is still on the path to recession. We continue to expect the drag from higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions to push the economy into a mild recession soon." Jim Baird, chief investment officer, Plante Moran Financial Advisors "For all the discussion of recession risk – which is very real – consumers remain willing and able to spend. Recession risks remain elevated; the first estimate of Q1 GDP confirms that the economy continues to slow.

☆ Morgan Stanley, Deutsche and others raise UK rate-hike forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Simon DawsonLONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - A number of banks including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank on Wednesday revised upward expectations for further UK interest rate hikes as a second straight day of data suggested price pressures remain elevated. Previously, the bank had anticipated no change in UK rates next month. Hence, we now expect a 25bp hike from the BoE in May," Morgan Stanley UK economist Bruna Skarica said. Deutsche Bank said it also expects two more rate hikes from the BoE, taking the terminal rate to 4.75% in June. "Importantly, we now see risks to our terminal rate forecast skewed to the upside," said Deutsche Bank senior economist Sanjay Raja.

☆ Bitcoin dips below $30,000 to start the week as crypto investors refocus on economic concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Cryptocurrencies fell on Monday as investors put excitement from Ethereum's "Shapella" upgrade behind them and refocused on upcoming bank earnings and recession concerns. Bitcoin fell 3% to $29,515.35, according to Coin Metrics, falling below the key $30,000 it hit last week for the first time since June. Crypto is coming off a winning week in which prices were boosted by optimism around Ethereum's latest tech upgrade, dubbed "Shapella" (also known as "Shanghai"). Crypto investors are watching bank earnings this week for more insight about the health of the sector and possibility of a coming recession. For this week, any downside potential "should not be severe" or keep bitcoin from continuing on its uptrend, Hasegawa said.

SINGAPORE/LONDON, April 12 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday with investors expecting U.S. inflation data out later in the day to hold some clues on how soon U.S. interest rates will peak. The U.S. inflation data for March is forecast to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Inflation data "could be the difference between a 25bp hike or pause at the Fed's next meeting in May," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, adding that money markets could "quickly revert to reprice a policy pause" if the inflation data comes in softer than expected. A raft of Fed speakers on Tuesday offered little guidance on how much further U.S. interest rates would rise. New York Fed President John Williams said it depended on incoming data.

☆ Dollar slips ahead of US inflation data, still hits month high against yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday against most major currencies, with the exception of the yen, with investors expecting U.S. inflation data out later in the global day to hold some clue on how soon U.S. interest rates will peak. The U.S. inflation data for March is forecast to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%, according to a Reuters poll of economists. A raft of Fed speakers on Tuesday offered little guidance on how much further U.S. interest rates would rise. New York Fed President John Williams said it depended on incoming data. Against the yen , the dollar rose to a nearly one-month high of 134.045, a reflection of the stark contrast between the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle and the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) ultra-loose policy.

☆ Morning Bid: Nervy markets wait on inflation report, Fed cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Investors will parse through the commentary to better understand the Fed's thinking about the turmoil in the banking sector, which had stoked expectations that the Fed may need to cut rates. But economic data along with rhetoric from Fed speakers have led markets to price in a two-thirds chance of a 25bp hike in May and standing pat thereafter, according to CME FedWatch tool. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 5.6% year-over-year in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Switzerland's upper house had approved the rescue earlier on Tuesday, meaning the two chambers of the legislative body will vote again on Wednesday. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:Economic events: Inflation reports from Serbia, Hungary; Bank of Canada rate decision; U.S. inflation report; Fed minutesSpeakers: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB's Luis De GuindosReporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ World stocks cling to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

European stocks added 0.5% (.STOXX), U.S. equity futures pointed to a positive Wall Street open , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Markets price in a roughly 70% chance of a May hike, having last week priced such a move as a coin toss. Traders still price in rate cuts by year-end as the economic growth outlook weakens, exacerbated by banking turmoil. U.S. March inflation data on Wednesday could provide the next steer for markets on the rate outlook. U.S. Treasury yields edged down on Tuesday, however, , with rate sensitive two-year yields 4 bps lower at 3.96%.

☆ China's consumer, factory prices skid as demand falters
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Tingshu WangIn contrast to surging prices globally, China’s retail and producer inflation has remained anaemic as the consumer and industrial sectors struggle to recover from their pandemic hit. Analysts now think consumer inflation could fall short of Beijing’s official targets this year. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 1.4%. GRAPHIC: China's inflation skids, hereFALLING SHORTThe government has set a target for average consumer prices in 2023 to be about 3%. “We think consumer price inflation will rebound in the coming months as the labour market tightens again and will peak at 2.3% in early 2024,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee contends with Fed rate hike possibility, favourable momentum at open
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 81.84-81.88 to the dollar, compared with 81.8850 in previous session. Rupee is on a three-week winning run, helped by foreign equity inflows and speculative positions, according to traders. It was the first time in two months that it has managed a weekly close of above 82. Risk appetite has held up well to the increased chances of another Fed rate hike. 5** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $138.4mln worth of Indian bonds on Apr.

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