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DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday that interest rates could shoot higher if Republicans end up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases. "If the House goes to Republicans, there's going to be a lot of debt, there's going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it'll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that," Gundlach said on CNBC's "Closing Bell." The race to control the House is undecided as of Thursday after Republicans clinched their new Senate majority. "So it looks to me that there will be some pressure on interest rates, and particularly at the long end. Still, Gundlach, who had predicted a recession in the U.S., said the Trump presidency makes such an economic downturn less likely.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Donald Trump, there's, Gundlach, Trump Organizations: DoubleLine, Republicans, Senate, Federal, Trump Locations: U.S
Oil prices regain ground as investors eye U.S. election fallout
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices edged up on Thursday following a sell-off triggered by the U.S. presidential election, as risks to oil supply from a Trump presidency and a hurricane building in the Gulf Coast outweighed a stronger U.S. dollar and higher inventories. Brent crude oil futures rose 26 cents, or 0.35%, to $75.18 per barrel by 0125 GMT. Trump's election had initially triggered a sell-off that pushed oil prices down by more than $2 as the U.S. dollar rose to its highest level since September 2022. Donald Trump is expected to reimpose his "maximum pressure policy" of sanctions on Iranian oil. U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels to 427.7 million barrels in the week ending on Nov. 1, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, compared with expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel rise.
Persons: Tony Sycamore, Brent, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, Hurricane Rafael Organizations: U.S, Trump, Brent, . West Texas, IG, U.S . Bureau of Safety, Environmental Enforcement, U.S . Energy, Administration Locations: Gulf, Iran, Venezuela, China, North America, Hurricane, U.S . Gulf, Mexico
Airbnb misses on earnings but squeaks in a revenue beat
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Ashley Capoot | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Airbnb reported third-quarter earnings on Thursday that were shy of analyst estimates, though it squeaked in a small revenue beat. Here's how the company did:Earnings per share: $2.13 vs. $2.14 expected by LSEG$2.13 vs. $2.14 expected by LSEG Revenue: $3.73 billion vs. $3.72 billion expected by LSEGRevenue increased 10% from $3.4 billion a year earlier. Airbnb reported net income of $1.37 billion, or $2.13 per share, compared with $4.37 billion, or $6.63 per share, in the same period last year. Gross booking value, used by Airbnb to track host earnings, service fees, cleaning fees and taxes, totaled $20.1 billion in the third quarter. That's above the $19.9 billion expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.
Persons: Brian Chesky, Airbnb, Airbnb's, StreetAccount Organizations: Airbnb Inc, LSEG, LSEG Revenue, StreetAccount Locations: Los Angeles , California
Long-term capital gains rates apply to assets owned for more than one year. Higher capital gains tax rates, however, are "entirely off the table," under a Trump presidency and Republican-controlled Congress, said Erica York, senior economist and research manager with the Tax Foundation's Center for Federal Tax Policy. Even with partial Republican control, "it's most likely that capital gains tax policy just stays put where it is," York explained. For 2024, investors pay long-term capital gains rates of 0%, 15% or 20%, depending on taxable income. Combined with long-term capital gains taxes, higher earners currently pay up to 23.8% on investments.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jim Watson, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Harris, Joe Biden's, Erica York, York, Howard Gleckman Organizations: U.S, Republican, Afp, Getty, Trump, Tax, Center, Federal Tax Policy, Republicans, Representatives, White, Urban, Brookings Tax Locations: Palm Beach
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowThe Federal Reserve approved its second consecutive interest rate cut Thursday, moving at a less aggressive pace than before but continuing its efforts to rightsize monetary policy. Among them was an altered view in how it assesses the effort to bring down inflation while supporting the labor market. The statement slightly downgraded the labor market, saying "conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." Generally, the labor market has held up well. An acceleration in economic activity under Trump could persuade the Fed to cut rates less, depending on how inflation reacts.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell, nonfarm, Donald Trump, Trump, Powell, Pace Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, Gross, Atlanta Fed, Trump Locations: Tuesday's
Moderna on Thursday posted a surprise profit for the third quarter, smashing Wall Street estimates, as its cost-cutting efforts took hold and sales of its Covid vaccine came in higher than expected. Before year end, the company plans to file for approval of its experimental "next-generation" Covid vaccine and combination shot targeting Covid and the flu. Moderna this year also expects to apply for expanded approval of its RSV vaccine, targeting high-risk adults ages 18 to 59. "I think the earlier launch and a steeper ramp drove a much higher sales number" for the Covid vaccine, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in an interview. Analysts had expected sales of $132 million for the RSV vaccine, according to estimates compiled by StreetAccount.
Persons: Moderna, Stéphane Bancel, Bancel, StreetAccount, mull Organizations: Moderna, LSEG, Merck, Research Locations: U.S, Union, Norway, Iceland, Qatar, Europe
Rivian posted an adjusted loss of 99 cents per share on $874 million in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG had forecast a loss of 92 cents per share on revenue of $990 million. On the other hand, Block's adjusted earnings of 88 cents per share beat analysts' estimates by one cent. DraftKings said its fourth-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization will range between $240 million and $280 million. Expedia's adjusted earnings for the third quarter came in at $6.13 per share, beating analysts' call for $6.04 a share, per LSEG.
Persons: Rivian, LSEG, Airbnb, Akamai, FactSet, DraftKings, Sweetgreen, Toast, Julie Whalen, Jimmy Choo, Michael Kors, Versace, , Darla Mercado, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring Organizations: StreetAccount, Revenue, Arista Networks, Capri Holdings, Capri Locations: LSEG
But after a strong October, TTWO appears to be setting up for a significant breakout that yields a healthy upside price target. After reaching a peak of around $170 in early February, the stock pulled back to just below its 200-day moving average. We can determine an initial upside target simply by measuring the price range of the basing pattern, in this case from $140 to $170. That 61.8% retracement sits right around $167, forming the upper end of the price range we outlined on the daily chart. So a breakout above $170, while an important signal on the daily chart based on the basing pattern, also represents a significant break above a major Fibonacci retracement level.
Persons: TTWO, Alan Shaw, David Keller Organizations: CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Lyft expects bookings in the current quarter of $4.28 billion to $4.35 billion, while analysts polled by FactSet expected $4.23 billion. SolarEdge — The solar panel inverter stock slipped more than 16% after a third-quarter revenue miss. SolarEdge reported revenue of $261 million, while analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for $269 million. Third-quarter revenue surpassed Wall Street estimates, and the company expects fourth-quarter revenue of $256 million to $262 million, compared with an estimate of $260 million. Moderna — Shares rallied 7% after Moderna's third-quarter earnings and revenue topped expectations.
Persons: FactSet, SolarEdge, , Zillow, Gilead, LSEG, Armour, Hershey, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim, Sarah Min Organizations: Arm, Wall, LSEG, FactSet, , Qualcomm, Gilead Sciences, Hershey Locations: Gilead
The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday proposed ending the use of a common ingredient found in many popular over-the-counter cold and allergy medications. The agency said an extensive review of available data determined that the ingredient, oral phenylephrine, doesn't actually relieve nasal congestion. The FDA said the proposed order is not based on safety concerns and not final yet, which means companies can still market over-the-counter drugs containing oral phenylephrine for now. Last year, CVS said it has already moved to pull certain medicines containing oral phenylephrine. The designation, typically used for older medicines, allows drugmakers to include an ingredient in over-the-counter products without the need to file an FDA application.
Persons: doesn't, Patrizia Cavazzoni, Johnson, Kenvue, Phenylephrine, Pseudoephedrine Organizations: Drug Administration, FDA, FDA's Center, Drug, Research, CVS, Procter, Gamble, Bayer, Walgreens, University of Florida, Consumer Healthcare Products Association Locations: Hawthorne , California, U.S
Markets, in particular, crave certainty, and the clear path forward will allow companies to adjust their business and hiring plans. But stocks may also be reacting to Trump’s victory, in particular. Trump flipped several swing states from President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, and Republicans also took control of the Senate. So Trump’s victory, at least for now, appears to be keeping those rates somewhat higher. Other so-called Trump trades, including shares of his social media stock, Trump Media & Technology Group, surged Wednesday morning.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden’s, refocusing, Sam Stovall, Bitcoin, Crypto, Trump’s, Germany’s DAX, Australia’s, , Neil Newman, Hong, ” Daniel Murray Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Dow, Nasdaq, Republicans, Fed, JPMorgan, Democratic, CFRA Research, Gross, Treasury, Trump, Trump Media & Technology Group, CAC, Nikkei, Advisory, EFG Asset Management Locations: New York, Europe, Asia, China, Tokyo, Shanghai
President-elect Donald Trump is returning to the White House , and shares of regional banks are surging on his Election Day victory. Western Alliance Bancorp turned up on the list, with a dividend yield of 1.8% as of Tuesday's close. BPOP YTD mountain Popular shares in 2024 Provident Financial Services turned up on CNBC Pro's screen. Provident posted a profit of 36 cents per share, versus analysts' call for 47 cents a share, per FactSet. Shares are up more than 21% in 2024, and as of Tuesday's close, it had a dividend yield of 5%.
Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler, Davidson's Gary Tenner, Tenner, Frank Schiraldi, Piper Sandler's Mark Fitzgibbon, Fitzgibbon, , Fred Imbert Organizations: White, Republicans, Regional Banking, CNBC, Western Alliance Bancorp, Western Alliance, Financial Services, Provident
Nintendo on Tuesday cut forecast for Switch sales for its fiscal year ending March 2025 as demand wanes for its ageing console. The operating profit outlook for the period was slashed from 400 billion yen to 360 billion yen. Here's how Nintendo did in its fiscal second quarter ended Sept. 30 versus LSEG estimates:Revenue : 276.7 billion Japanese yen ($1.8 billion), compared with 273.34 billion yen expected. : 276.7 billion Japanese yen ($1.8 billion), compared with 273.34 billion yen expected. Net profit: 27.7 billion yen, versus 48.06 billion yen expected.
Persons: Mario Organizations: NINTENDO, Universal Studios Hollywood, Nintendo, Revenue Locations: Universal City , California
Yum Brands on Tuesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that missed Wall Street's expectation as same-store sales at KFC and Pizza Hut slid more than expected. Yum's worldwide same-store sales fell 2% in the quarter, dragged down by weaker performances at KFC and Pizza Hut, which both reported same-store sales declines of 4%. KFC's U.S. same-store sales slid 5% this quarter. The pizza chain saw its international same-store sales shrink 6%, while U.S. same-store sales fell just 1%. Taco Bell, the gem of Yum's portfolio, reported same-store sales growth of 4%.
Persons: Yum, David Gibbs, Popeyes, Taco Bell Organizations: Yum Brands, KFC, LSEG, KFC's, U.S Locations: China, U.S
A new Burger King restaurant under construction in Tortosa, Spain, following the current expansion of Restaurant Brands International Inc. - the parent company of BK- in new and existing markets. Restaurant Brands International on Tuesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that missed analysts' expectations as domestic same-store sales growth for all four of its chains fell short of Wall Street estimates. Burger King, Firehouse Subs and Popeyes all reported same-store sales declines in their home markets. But the Canadian coffee chain still fell short of Wall Street's same-store sales growth expectations of 4.1%, based on StreetAccount estimates. Outside of the U.S. and Canada, Restaurant Brands' international same-store sales rose 1.8% in the quarter, just shy of estimates of 2.2%.
Persons: Burger, Popeyes, Tim Hortons Organizations: Burger King, Restaurant Brands, Inc, BK, LSEG, Brands Locations: Tortosa, Spain, China, U.S, Canada
GOP senators and top aides say the race could go either way. Scott, who is a McConnell critic, has been more willing to fall in line with Trump than Cornyn or Thune over the last several years. Both Thune and Cornyn are closely politically aligned with the longtime GOP leader. Asked if he would like to get more public endorsements from GOP senators, Thune said he is not asking anyone to do that. They also point out his remarkable ascent – he defeated then-Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle in 2004 and is now on a path to possibly becoming GOP leader.
Persons: Mitch McConnell’s, Donald Trump, Sen, John Cornyn, John Thune, McConnell, Trump, Cornyn, Joe Rogan, ” Cornyn, Thune, they’ve, Howard Lutnick, Linda McMahon, Rick Scott, Scott, ” Scott, Laura Loomer, Markwayne Mullin, he’s, “ I’d, ” Mullin, Jonathan Ernst, “ There’s, , West Virginia Sen, Shelley Moore Capito, John Barrasso of, Barrasso, Cornyn’s, , ” Thune, don’t, , I’ve, MAGA, — Trump, ” Trump, Kristi Noem, Kristi, GOP Sen, Tim Scott of, Anna Moneymaker, Steve Daines, Thune’s, Tom Daschle, Biden, Vance Organizations: CNN, GOP, Senate, Trump, Mar, Trump voters, , Republicans, U.S, Capitol, Johns, Republican, Thune, National Republican, Committee, “ Liberal, South Dakota Gov, RINO, U.S . Senate, South Dakota, New, Senate GOP, Democratic Locations: Reno , Nevada, Austin , Texas, Texas, Lago, Washington, Florida, Washington , U.S, West Virginia, John Barrasso of Wyoming, United States, South Dakota, U.S, South, , Tim Scott of South Carolina, New Hampshire, Washington , DC, Montana, Michigan , Indiana , Nevada
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: Katie Stockton Organizations: Mattel, Hasbro, DeMark, MAT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities
Key ports on Canada's West Coast, including its largest container port in Vancouver and the Port of Prince Rupert, were shut down by a labor strike on Monday. According to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, $800 million in trade flows through West Coast ports every day. Montreal processes 40% of all East Coast container traffic. Approximately $572 million in container trade arrives daily in the U.S. from Canada, according to U.S. Census data. A temporary loss of the Canadian West Coast trade gateway could push carriers to discharge import cargo along the already strained U.S. West Coast, said Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA, further increasing the dwell time of containers and elongating overall transits.
Persons: of Prince Rupert, Vancouver and Prince Rupert, Prince Rupert, Eric Byer, Paul Brashier, Alan Baer, Steve Lamar, Frank Morena, Steven MacKinnon Organizations: Greater, Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, Local, Port, Canadian Union of Public Employees, U.S . Department of Transportation, Alliance for Chemical, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Canadian National Railway, Logistics, International, Warehouse Union of Canada, ITS Logistics, East, Canadian West, USA, U.S ., American Apparel and Footwear Association, British Columbia Maritime Employers Association, Federal Mediation, Conciliation Services, Canada, ILWU, U.S, Canadian Labor Locations: West Coast, Vancouver, of, Foreman, Greater Vancouver, U.S, Port of Montreal, Montreal, United States, of Vancouver, Canada, Canadian West Coast, Port, Midwest, Asia, U.S . West Coast, Los Angeles, Long Beach , California, British Columbia, American, British, East Coast
Investors are expecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to get a boost from the inclusion of the biggest artificial intelligence beneficiary of the last year. The 30-stock Dow has underperformed this year and last after failing to capitalize on the artificial intelligence boom that helped bolster the comparatively tech-heavy S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. By comparison, the S & P 500 has surged 20% in 2024, after climbing 24% last year. Nvidia shares have gained 179% this year, and last advanced 1.8% in midday trading. Meanwhile, Intel shares have tumbled more than 55% in 2024; on Monday, it was last off by another 3.5%.
Persons: Dow Jones, CFRA Research's Angelo Zino, Dow, Nvidia doesn't, Ned Davis, Zino, bullish Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Ned Davis Research, Blackwell, Intel, Amazon, Walgreens, Alliance, Walgreens Boots Alliance
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD It's because the economy and earnings remain resilient. That is the main reason the S & P 500 is less than 2% from its historic high. Third quarter earnings for the S & P 500 are up 8.4%, well above the 6.0% estimated at the start of October. It's fourth quarter earnings that matter Remember, the most important thing to watch is the trend and whether it is accelerating or decelerating. The S & P 500 is up 50% in those two years.
Persons: There's, Tom Lee, Phil Mackintosh, Mackintosh, John Butters, Scott Chronert, Alec Young, MapSignals.com, Young, We're Organizations: Tech, Nasdaq, Democrat, Republican, Citigroup Locations: backwardation
Specifically, he warned about traders taking the 10-year Treasury yield , a bond market benchmark, above 5% — a level it hasn't seen since mid-2007. To be sure, there are myriad reasons why the bond market has been in a state of tumult since mid-September, political considerations of a second Trump term being just one of them. "The bond market could easily nullify the impacts of another rate cut. That's because the bond market believes the Fed is cutting rates by too much, too soon, and is therefore raising long-term inflation expectations. It could carry "higher tariffs and mass deportations, which triggers stagflation in the US including a second inflation spike," the bank said.
Persons: Donald Trump, Chip Somodevilla, Kamala Harris, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Trump, Harris, Kumar, it's, Karen Dynan, Trump's, Peterson, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fiserv, Republican National Convention, Treasury, Trump, Reserve, Bond, Yardeni Research, Sri, Kumar, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Republicans Locations: Milwaukee , Wisconsin, United States
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 24, 2024. Brendan McDermid | ReutersStocks typically rise after a presidential election — but investors need to be prepared for some short-term choppiness first, history shows. The three major benchmarks on average have seen gains between Election Day and year-end in the presidential election year going back to 1980, according to CNBC data. However, investors shouldn't be expecting a straight shot up in the market after polls close. This means investors shouldn't be anticipating an immediate pop on Wednesday or the next few days after.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, shouldn't, Stocks Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: America
3 takeaways from pre-election voting
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Molly English | Ethan Cohen | Matt Holt | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —Pre-election voting is winding down across the country, with many states wrapping up in-person early voting over the weekend. While overall pre-election voting is down, in some states more voters chose to vote in person early than they did in 2020. However, total pre-election voting in both states was still lower than in 2020 due to significantly fewer people choosing to vote by mail. Republicans grow their pre-election vote shareRepublicans have made up more of the pre-election vote than they did in 2020. The Trump campaign made more of an effort this year to encourage Republicans to vote early and by mail, a major shift from messaging against pre-election voting in 2020.
Persons: it’s, Trump, Catalist, Kamala Harris Organizations: CNN, District of Columbia, Edison Research, Republican, Nevada Republicans, Trump, Republicans Locations: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Peach State, In Arizona
Expect a “noisy” jobs report Friday that will be heavily affected by storms and a labor strike, economists say. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report that the U.S. economy gained 110,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. “Unfortunately, it won’t be easy to interpret the October jobs report,” Chris Waller, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, said earlier this month. At 4.1%, the unemployment rate is still historically low, while the rate of inflation has effectively returned to the Fed’s 2% annual target. “Without an increase in hiring, even moderate levels of job losses will likely cause the unemployment rate to pick up.”
Persons: ” Chris Waller, Helene, Milton, Jason Redmond, , Julia Pollak, Pollak, Biden Organizations: Labor Statistics, Boeing, Fed’s, of Governors, International Association of Machinists, Aerospace Workers, Getty, ZipRecruiter, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S . Department of Labor, Citi Locations: U.S, Tuesday’s, Seattle, AFP
Coterra Energy Why we own it: Formed by the merger of Cabot Oil & Gas and Cimarex, Coterra Energy is an exploration-and-production company with a high-quality, diversified asset portfolio. It's committed to returning 50% or greater of annual free cash flow to shareholders. However, shares are moving lower Friday after management cut its discretionary cash flow outlook for the remainder of the year. So far this year, Coterra has returned 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders. As a reminder, management's stated commitment is to return 50% or more of annual free cash flow via dividends and buybacks.
Persons: , It's, Coterra, management's, We're, Daniel Guffey, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Brandon Bell Organizations: Coterra Energy, LSEG, Coterra, Cabot Oil & Gas, EQT Corp, Devon Energy, Oil, CNBC, Getty Locations: Nolan , Texas
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