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CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Last Friday, the August employment report showed the number of jobs added was lower than expected but higher than the previous month. Wednesday's CPI report showed the lowest 12-month inflation rate in two-and-a-half years. In short, the data hasn't cleared up whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points. They think there's a 57% chance of a 25 point cut and 43% of a 50 point one, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Persons: Stefani Reynolds, We've, Wednesday's, Jeff Cox, Pia Singh, Sarah Min Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, PPI Locations: Washington ,
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, at the ECB And Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on March 20, 2024. Traders are widely anticipating an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's Sept. 17-18 meeting, as well as at the ECB's meeting this week. "The rate cut this Thursday should be largely uncontroversial," Holger Schmieding, the chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC in an email to clients. In July, the ECB left interest rates unchanged in a unanimous vote following June's landmark cut. The ECB's key interest rate — which helps to price all sorts of loans and mortgages across the bloc — is currently at 3.75% after years of aggressive hikes.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Holger Schmieding, Joachim Nagel, Anatoli Annenkov, what's Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Bloomberg, Getty, FRANKFURT, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal, Berenberg Bank, CNBC, ECB Council, , Bank Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Société, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Stubbornly high core inflation virtually cemented the likelihood of a quarter percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve, which historically has avoided larger moves unless absolutely necessary. Shelter inflation is putting a floor under the CPI and likely keeping the Fed from reducing interest rates by more 25 basis points. "History back to 1990 supports the idea that an initial Fed rate cut of 50 basis points signals an imminent recession (2001 and 2007). "Their first cut will almost certainly be 25 basis points," Colas said. But the Fed, which targets inflation at 2%, prefers core readings as a better longer-term gauge for inflation.
Persons: Dow Jones, , Nick Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, CPI, Fed, Traders, Open Market, PCE
As the Fed lowers its benchmark rate, mortgage rates should continue to go down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. FHA Interest RatesFHA interest rates were 5.03% last month, and they've been a bit lower in recent weeks. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile.
Persons: they've, Freddie Mac Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Zillow, ARM, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs Locations: Chevron
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork Friday for interest rate cuts ahead, though he declined to provide exact indications on timing or extent. "The time has come for policy to adjust," the central bank leader said in his much-awaited keynote address at the Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic," Powell said. He vowed that "we will do everything we can" to make sure the labor market says strong and progress on inflation continues.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, Stocks, Paul McCulley Organizations: Traders Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
That’s precisely why the Fed is poised to cut interest rates in September for the first time since 2020. Therein lies the one question on everyone’s mind: How aggressively will the Fed ultimately cut rates? A high threshold for jumbo rate cutsThe Fed makes its decisions on interest rates consistent with what’s happening in the economy. Fed officials have mostly signaled that they’re finally ready to cut rates, but some have still expressed some hesitance. But, for now, there’s no emergency demanding the Fed cut rates aggressively next month, or any time later in the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, pare, Price, Powell, “ They’re, ” Tani Fukui, they’re, Raphael Bostic, ” Powell, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, That’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Labor Department, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Traders, MetLife Investment Management, CNN, Atlanta Fed, Citi, Oxford Economics Locations: Unemployment, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Traders continued to price in a greater likelihood that the Fed will kick off what is expected to be a protracted easing campaign in September with a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, reduction. "My base-case scenario is that we are on a journey of 25 basis point cuts, probably for the next eight meetings, a couple hundred basis points cumulative," economist Paul McCulley said on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street ." "But if we see weaker growth, and particularly weaker jobs, then I think we could have a bit of front-loading and start the process with 50 basis point cuts." That, among other vows to support the economy now that inflation has waned, provided some indication that a 50 basis point move is at least on the table. Markets expect the central bank to knock off a full percentage point this year and at least that much in 2025.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Paul McCulley, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, you've, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Rick Rieder, Goolsbee Organizations: Federal, Traders, CME, Cornell, Georgetown, Fed, Nikko Securities, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Locations: Powell's, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Atlanta, Chicago
Treasury yields slip ahead of consumer inflation figures
  + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.929% after rising by 1 basis point. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Wednesday as investors considered the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the economy and monetary policy. Treasury yields had tumbled on Tuesday after the producer price index increased 0.1% on a monthly bass in July, less than the forecast 0.2% rise. The wholesale inflation figure was released ahead of Wednesday's consumer price index. Investors will also be scanning the inflation figures for hints the outlook for interest rates.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, CPI, Federal, Traders, Fed
As the Fed lowers its benchmark rate, mortgage rates are expected to decrease further. This would likely remove a substantial amount of upward pressure off of mortgage rates. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates fell to 5.63% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they're expected to go down at some point this year.
Persons: they're, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Zillow Locations: Chevron
watch nowThe PPI report, seen as a gauge of wholesale inflation, showed prices up just 0.2% in July and about 2.2% from a year ago. Still, investors are looking for the Fed at its September meeting to start cutting interest rates, considering that inflation is weakening and so is the labor market. Another benign inflation report "makes the Fed completely comfortable that they can shift their focus away from inflation and toward labor," said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. There are cracks forming in the labor market backdrop." "I'm as curious about [Wednesday's] inflation report as anyone else, but I think it would take a real outlier to change the Fed's tune from 1) shifting to labor as its focus, and 2) seriously thinking about cutting in September," Porcelli said.
Persons: Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Dow Jones, there's, Tom Porcelli, Porcelli Organizations: Walmart, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Financial Advisors, PPI, Fed, Traders
Looking back, quarterly earnings also played a key role in big stock moves for the portfolio. Looking ahead, we'll see an update on some key inflation data, plus a closer look at the state of the housing and retail sectors. ET: Producer Price Index Earnings: Home Depot (HD), Pandora (PANDY), Nu Holdings (NU), Sea Limited (SE) Wednesday, August 14 8:30 a.m. ET: Consumer Price Index Earnings: Tencent Holdings (TCEHY), Cisco (CSCO), UBS (UBS), JD.com (JD) Thursday, August 15 8:30 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Walt, Jim Cramer, we've, JD.com, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Walt Disney, Microsoft, Ford Motor, Wynn Resorts, DuPont, Devices, Procter, Gamble, Club, Abbott Laboratories, Federal, Traders, Sun Life, Nu Holdings, Sea, Tencent Holdings, Cisco, UBS, Philadelphia Fed, Walmart, Materials, Deere & Co, Ross Stores, Lenovo, Housing, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, Dover, Wells Fargo, Nextracker, Eaton
The epicenter is Japan," Jim said during the Club's Morning Meeting. However, significant changes in the currencies can "force you to unwind the trade," Jim explained. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, we'll, Jim, Wells Fargo, we're, It's, Morgan Stanley, Stanley Black, Jim Cramer's, DOV Organizations: CNBC, Overseas, Nikkei, U.S ., U.S, Nextracker, Microsoft, Treasury, Energy, Uber Technologies, Caterpillar, Super Micro, Corp, NXT Locations: Japan, U.S, Dover, DuPont, Wells
Why the stock market is freaking out again
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The Dow tumbled more than 1,000 points at the open, and the broader market plunged 3% Monday. The Nasdaq, full of risky tech stocks, dropped 3.7%. Although that’s not in and of itself an unhealthy unemployment rate, its sudden march higher is alarming: Last year, the unemployment rate was at its lowest level since the moon landing. Traders are beginning to unwind big trades on Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and other tech stocks that had been surging since the beginning of last year. Monday’s rout, if it ends at current levels, wouldn’t even crack the top 100 worst days in market history.
Persons: Dow, that’s, Goldman Sachs, That’s, Jeremy Siegel, , , Siegel, Stocks, it’ll, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: CNN, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Citigroup, JPMorgan, CNBC, Traders, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Berkshire Locations: Wall
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now. Policymakers have been focused on the "real" fed funds rate, which is the Fed's benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%; Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25-1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, nonfarm, I'm, we're Organizations: Chicago Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Labor Department, Traders
Stifel Financial's Barry Bannister thinks the S & P 500 will see a steep pullback over the next couple of months. Bannister said Stifel's year-end target of 5,000 for the S & P 500 "seems appropriate right now" given the July jobs data and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. In early June, Bannister said the S & P 500 could drop to approximately 4,750 before the end of the third quarter of this year. The S & P 500 ended last week at 5,346.56. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 this year.
Persons: Stifel Financial's Barry Bannister, Bannister, Stifel's, Stifel, we've Organizations: CNBC, Traders
Hong Kong/London CNN —Japanese shares soared Tuesday, clawing back some of their record losses from the previous day and underpinning a tentative recovery on global markets. Markets around the world plunged during Monday’s session when a combination of fears about a slowing US economy, rising Japanese interest rates and crumbling tech stocks combined to trigger a meltdown. The bounce in Japan is “typical after a market crash,” Neil Newman, head of strategy at Astris Advisory in Tokyo, told CNN. “It is too early to conclude that the Japanese stock market has hit a bottom,” they said, adding that any recovery would likely only occur after Japanese companies report first-half earnings in October, or even after the US presidential election in November. A stronger yenJapan’s stock market, in particular, was hard-hit by the rapid appreciation of the yen, which undermines the export competitiveness of the country’s manufacturers.
Persons: clawing, Kospi, ” Neil Newman, , , Stephen Innes, ” Newman, Newman, Fumio Kishida Organizations: London CNN, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Advisory, CNN, UBS Chief Investment, Moody’s, Bank of Japan, Management, Tokyo “, Traders, Reuters Locations: Hong Kong, London, Asia, South, Taiwan, Europe, Japan, Tokyo, South Korea
Hong Kong/London CNN —Japanese stocks on Monday suffered their biggest daily loss since 1987 as fears about a US economic slowdown sent shock waves through global markets. The Nikkei 225 index of leading stocks in Tokyo lost a staggering 4,451 points, its biggest point drop in history. On the more common, percentage measure, the index closed more than 12% down — according to Reuters, its largest one-day fall since October 1987. He was referring to “Black Monday” in October 1987, when global markets plunged and the Nikkei lost 3,836 points. The Nikkei closed down 5.8% Friday, as traders fretted about the impact of a stronger yen on Japanese companies.
Persons: ” Neil Newman, , Stephen Innes, Newman, Mohit Kumar, Taiwan’s Taiex, Kospi, Innes, Tom Kloza, Bitcoin Organizations: London CNN, Reuters, Advisory, CNN, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Management, Trading, Nasdaq, Dow, Jefferies, Traders, greenback, PMI, Intel, Brent, Oil Price Information Service Locations: Hong Kong, London, Tokyo, Japan, South Korea, , Asia, Europe, South, Shanghai, China, United States
The Nikkei 225 sank 4.5% on Friday, extending a global stock rout that started following the release of weak US economic data. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates by 15 basis points to 0.25% on Wednesday, its second hike this year, and announced plans to taper off its policy of bond buying. ”The hike has narrowed the difference in interest rate between the United States and Japan, which pushed the Japanese yen higher against the greenback. Combined with strong corporate earnings and effective corporate governance reforms, the weak yen propelled the Nikkei 225 to all-time highs this year. “From a Japanese equity perspective, the earnings boost from a weak yen is set to diminish,” Citi analysts said on Thursday.
Persons: , Ken Cheung, Frank Benzimra, Korea’s, Australia’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Japan’s Nikkei, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Traders, Mizuho Securities, greenback, Societe Generale, ” Citi, Dow, Nasdaq, Labor Department, , ” ANZ, Federal Reserve Locations: Hong Kong, United States, Japan, Asia, Shanghai
Certain stocks should be winners as the Federal Reserve seeks to lower short-term rates, if history is any guide. Short-term yields have been falling this week in anticipation of a Fed action. CNBC Pro screened for the stocks in the S & P 500 that tend to rise the most when short-term rates decline. The majority of stocks are in businesses that would benefit from lower rates. There are also often volatile stocks that would benefit from lower rates increasing risk-taking by investors.
Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Traders, CNBC Pro, Treasury, Camden Property Trust, Alto Networks, Power Systems, Qualcomm Locations: PutleGroup
De-dollarization is nothing but a myth — and it could backfire on countries like Russia and China. That's according to Jeffrey Christian, a commodities expert who thinks dollar dominance isn't going away anytime soon. He says countries phasing out the greenback also could face consequences, like liquidity issues and slow growth. AdvertisementDe-dollarization is probably a fad — and countries trying to stage a global shift away from the dollar may soon find that the movement will backfire. Despite the ongoing movement, dollar dominance isn't probably going away, given how pervasive the greenback is in financial markets, he told Business Insider in an interview.
Persons: Jeffrey Christian, , Christian, It's, it's Organizations: Service, CPM Group, Traders, Reuters, Bank of International, International Monetary Fund, UC, Berkeley Locations: Russia, China, India
On Friday, the tech-heavy S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended the week with losses, down 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively. However, the bulk of Magnificent Seven results is set for release in the week ahead. As it is, all seven of the Magnificent Seven companies closed out the week with losses. FOMC meeting, July jobs report Elsewhere, investors will also be reviewing the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision set for release on Wednesday. Traders will also get insight into the labor market next week, with the release of the July jobs report on Friday.
Persons: Russell, Ryan Grabinski, John Belton, Tesla, Belton, FactSet, Stanley Black, Decker, Lam, Kraft Heinz, Ingersoll Rand Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Nvidia, 2H, 3Q, Gabelli, Traders, Dallas Fed, Semiconductor, Nation Entertainment, Electronic Arts, Starbucks, Match Group, Caesars Entertainment, Corning, Howmet Aerospace, Procter, Gamble, Pfizer, Merck, Co, PayPal, ADP, Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, MGM Resorts International, Allstate, Lam Research, eBay, Qualcomm, Western, Cruise Line Holdings, Hess, Boeing, Mobile, Marriott International, GE Healthcare Technologies, Generac Holdings, Mastercard, Labor, PMI, Manufacturing, Intel, Holdings, Motorola Solutions, Technology, Air Products, Chemicals, Jobs, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Locations: Chicago, Albemarle, Kellanova, Hershey, Moderna
Yen heads for strongest week in 3 months as carry trades unwind
  + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen was poised for its strongest week in nearly three months on Friday as traders unwound their long-held bets against the frail currency ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data that could cement rate cut expectations. The yen was poised for its strongest week in nearly three months on Friday as traders unwound their long-held bets against the frail currency ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data that could cement rate cut expectations. The euro was a tad stronger at $1.0853 but is down 0.35% for the week, its steepest weekly decline since early June. The souring risk sentiment this week has weighed heavily on the Aussie and the New Zealand dollar . The Aussie is down 2% for the week, its worst weekly performance since November 2023.
Persons: James Athey, Ben Bennett, they're Organizations: Marlborough Investment Management, Federal, Fed, Traders, Bank of Japan, Legal, General Investment Management, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Asia, Pacific
Improving news on inflation again has raised investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve soon will start to aggressively lower interest rates. Futures market pricing now indicates that while the Fed will remain on hold at next week's policy meeting, it will commence cutting in September and move again in November and December. The market-implied probability for a September cut nudged up to about 90% Friday morning, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool that measures fed funds futures pricing. Traders in early 2024 were pricing in at least six cuts this year, but the central bank's rate-setting group has remained on hold for a year. Following the two-day meeting that concludes next Wednesday, the Fed meeting schedule is empty for August, save for the all-important annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, , Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Friday's Commerce Department, RSM, Traders, Federal Open, Fed Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Second-quarter GDP data showed the economy grew at 2.8% in the second quarter, much more than expected. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Traders were assessing tech weakness and hotter-than-expected GDP data for the second quarter. Investors' top concern is slowing tech earnings growth after Tesla and Alphabet both reported disappointing results on Tuesday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the opening bell on Thursday:AdvertisementMeanwhile, investors are digesting second-quarter GDP data, which showed the US economy grew by 2.8%.
Persons: Stocks, , Mike Owens, Dan Ives, Chris Zaccarelli, Brent Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Traders, Investors, Federal Reserve, Saxo, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Securities, West Texas Locations: China, Here's
S&P 500 futures inched up Sunday night after the broad market index suffered its worst weekly losses since April last week as investors rotated out of megacap technology stocks for smaller names. Since Biden's disastrous debate performance in June, many analysts were seeing an increasing likelihood of a win by former President Donald Trump in November. There may be a small unwinding of the Trump trade on Monday as Vice President Harris is perceived to have a slightly better chance of winning," Hatfield said. Traders have been pricing in nearly a 93% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates during its September meeting. During the previous trading week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 2% and 3.7%, respectively, marking their biggest weekly losses since April.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Jay Hatfield, Biden, Trump, Harris, Hatfield, Russell Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Traders, Democratic, Infrastructure Capital Advisors, Federal Reserve, Dow, Verizon
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