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☆ Morning Bid: Ten-four, Treasury yields soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The remarkable sight of 10-year Treasury yields back above 4% for the first time in almost four months is only matched by two-year yields at 15-year highs stalking 5%. Weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the latest Fed speakers take on unusual importance in such a febrile rates market. And 6% Fed rates that seemed fanciful only a month ago are now being openly discussed by banks. Despite year-on-year oil prices now tracking declines of 25%, European inflation fears are a key feature of this week's nervousness. Benchmark German 10-year bond yields soared to 11-year highs at 2.77%.

☆ Morning Bid: Elusive peaks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Unlike much of last year, the rates market is now inclined to believe the central bank on the direction of travel. And implied year-end rates are as high as 5.12% - almost half a point higher than where the current rate sits. Two-year Treasury yields hit a three-month high at 4.72% on Friday, with 10-year yields at 3-month peaks too - homing in on 4% for the first time since November. So as impressive as this week's stock market resilience had been to the new inflation and rates environment, it appears to be buckling again already. Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* U.S. Jan import and export prices, leading indicator.

☆ Morning Bid: Volatility stirs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

World markets end a rough week of confusing and competing narratives in distinctly edgy form, with peculiarly subdued volatility gauges flickering back to life. Both 10 and 30-year yields hit their highest levels in over a month early on Friday. Job shedding in the digital sector continued, with Yahoo's plans to lay off more than 20% of its total workforce. That said, the year-on-year oil price trend continues to be negative, as it's been all year and base effects from last year's price spike around the Ukraine invasion will only deepen that and weigh on headline inflation further. Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next, cutting its Brent 2023 price forecast by $6 to $92 per barrel - still above current levels around $86.

☆ Here's everything the Federal Reserve is expected to do Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference after Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in Washington, September 21, 2022. Kevin Lamarque | ReutersCall it a sign of the times where a half percentage point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve is considered looser monetary policy. In 2022, they've done it five times — four times for three-quarters of a point and once for a half percentage point — with Wednesday's widely anticipated 0.5 percentage point move to be the sixth. Wednesday's meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will bring an assortment of moves to chew on. The 'dot plot' and the 'terminal rate'That "terminal rate" of which Masotti spoke references the expected end point for the Fed and its current rate-hiking cycle.

The proposed principles detailed expectations for banks with more than $100 billion in assets to incorporate financial risks related to climate into their strategic planning. Those financial impacts "pose an emerging risk to the safety and soundness of financial institutions and the financial stability of the United States," the Fed said. The Fed's plan would require banks to consider climate-related financial risks in their audits and other risk management and add climate-related scenario analysis to traditional stress testing. Fed Governor Christopher Waller dissented against Friday's proposal, raising the question of whether it poses a serious risk to large banks' soundness or U.S. financial stability. "The Federal Reserve conducts regular stress tests on large banks that impose extremely severe macroeconomic shocks and they show that the banks are resilient."

☆ Morning Bid: Powell clears the decks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Intended or not, investors clearly read Wednesday's keynote speech by the Federal Reserve chair as a green light for a yearend relief rally in beaten down assets. On the face of it, Fed chief Jerome Powell merely confirmed what most had already assumed - that the Fed would downshift the size of its interest rate rises to half a point next month. The upshot is that markets have dragged their implied peak Fed rate next year back below 5% and continue to price up to half a point of cuts by the end of 2023. Core PCE inflation numbers are due later and another barrage of Fed speakers to hold Powell's take up to the light.

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 to watch Wednesday: Fed's Powell, Alzheimer's data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Club holding Salesforce (CRM) is set to report fiscal third-quarter 2023 financial results after the closing bell Wednesday. Atlantic Equities says there's "no easy fix" at Club holding Disney (DIS) for returning CEO Bob Iger. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a point and then signal it could slow the pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point Wednesday and then signal that it could reduce the size of its rate hikes starting as soon as December. Markets are primed for the fourth 75-basis point hike in a row, and investors are anticipating the Fed will slow down its pace before winding down the rate-hiking cycle in March. Gapen said he expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to indicate during his press briefing that the Fed discussed slowing the pace of rate hikes but did not commit to it. He expects the Fed would then raise interest rates by a half percentage point in December. The stock market has already rallied on expectations of a slowdown in rate hikes by the Fed, after a final 75 basis point hike Wednesday afternoon.

☆ Tech tonic and Sunak salve
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A massive week for top technology firms worldwide pits U.S. mega cap earnings against the withering slide in China tech shares amid domestic political and economic fears. read moreBut the decimation of Chinese tech stocks (.HSTECH) this week was more worrying. read moreU.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies such as Pinduoduo (PDD.O), JD.com and Baidu Inc plunged between 12% and 25% in New York on Monday. read moreHSBC's shares fell almost 7% in London, meantime, as investors digested a sudden management change and rising bad loan charges. As investors awaited the European Central Bank's latest interest rate rise on Thursday, German business readings were above forecast for October.

☆ Tesla and Truss, 5% and 150
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A Tesla model 3 car is seen in their showroom in Singapore October 22, 2021. read more The latest European tech sector earnings on Thursday were downbeat, too. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said the BoE would respond to changes in Truss's tax and spending policies. read moreKey developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:* European Union summit in Brussels* U.S. Oct Philadelphia business index. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Confusion reigns
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Then BoE chief Andrew Bailey said late Tuesday: "You've got three days left now. You've got to get this done" - even as the Financial Times reported the central bank might extend the support. The tension built with Britain's economy looking set to go into recession as data showed it unexpectedly shrank in August. "The worst is yet to come, and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession," said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. * G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet at annual IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington* Bank of England Financial Policy Committee publishes summary of latest meeting.

☆ Historic rate hikes mark the largest 6-month increase in 41 years: What you should do with your money
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell pauses during a news conference after Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in Washington, September 21, 2022. You'd have to go back to 1981 to find a six-month period when interest rates rose more. With more interest rate hikes on the rise, it's worth reviewing how they affect your finances and how financial experts say you can best adjust your saving, spending and investing strategies. "You are peddling into a progressively stiffer headwind as interest rates rise," Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, told CNBC. Up the interest rate you're getting on cash in the bankOne silver lining of a rising rate environment is that it becomes more lucrative to save.

Stocks took a beating this week as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 75 basis points, the third consecutive hike of that magnitude. It wasn't the rate move — which was anticipated by the market — but Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments on Wednesday that hurt stocks. It was the fifth losing week out of the last six for all the major stock averages, capped by another painful drop on Friday. Also Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by another 75 basis points while maintaining its hawkish tone. ET: Personal Spending and Income (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long.)

☆ Here's why U.S. fiscal policy is undermining the Fed's aggressive efforts to fight inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Central bank tightening — under the umbrella of monetary policy — is only one side of the equation when it comes to managing inflation. The other is fiscal policy, which is controlled by lawmakers in Congress. Coordinated fiscal- and monetary policy can have a compounding effect in stamping out inflation. But given that U.S. fiscal policy is not acting in concert with monetary policy, the Fed's efforts to bring down inflation have become all the more complicated. In the years since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, expansionary fiscal policy — and monetary policy for that matter — has not posed much of a problem due to overall low inflation.

☆ The Fed forecasts hiking rates as high as 4.6% before ending inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the headquarters of the Federal Reserve, July 27, 2022 in Washington, DC. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to up to 4.6% in 2023 before the central bank stops its fight against soaring inflation, according to its median forecast released on Wednesday. The central bank on Wednesday raised benchmark interest rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point to a range of 3%-3.25%, the highest since early 2008. The median forecast also showed that Fed officials expect to hike rates to 4.4% by the end of 2022. The so-called dot-plot, which the Fed uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, showed six of the 19 "dots" would take rates even higher to a 4.75%-5% range next year.

☆ Fed's Powell: U.S. housing market headed for 'correction'
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell attends a news conference after Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in Washington, U.S., September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Kevin LamarqueSept 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said the U.S. housing market will probably go through a "correction" after a period of "red hot" price increases that have put home ownership out of reach for many Americans. "There was a big imbalance ... housing prices were going up at an unsustainably fast level," Powell said at a news conference following the Fed's decision to raise its policy rate by another 75 basis points. We probably in the housing market have to go through a correction to get back to that place." The Fed's rate hikes this year have had their biggest impact on the housing sector, slowing sales and bringing prices a bit lower.

☆ Morning Bid: Keep your hiking boots on
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. central bank on Wednesday raised rates by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting as it is bent on taming the steepest surge in inflation in 40 years. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterInstead, it was what comes next that appeared to seize the market's attention. New Fed projections show its policy rate topping out at 4.60% in 2023. Policymakers see the need to lift the policy rate to a "restrictive level" and "keep it there for some time," Powell added. What's more, investors on Thursday will have other central bank actions to contend with, including in Japan, England and Switzerland.

☆ The Fed just made a 'jumbo' interest rate hike of 0.75%—here are 4 things that will be more expensive
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Mike Winters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

By increasing its key interest rate, the central bank discourages spending, which can reduce inflation for the prices for goods and services. When the rate hikes began in early 2022, average APRs were close to 16% and have since climbed to just over 18%. At the start of 2022, the average interest rate on a 60-month new car loan was 3.85%. But with today's increase, the interest rate could nudge up closer to 5.5% to 5.75%, says Bankrate's chief financial analyst Greg McBride. Mortgage rates tend to rise with rate hikes, but they are more directly influenced by the bond market.

☆ What Cramer is watching Wednesday — Fed day, Putin escalation, oil stock optimism
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Buy Club holding Ford into any Fed weakness. Barclays downgrades Club holding and Dow stock Cisco Systems (CSCO) to equal weight from overweight (hold from buy). Wells Fargo cuts PT to $75 tom $90 but keeps overweight (buy) rating. However, BofA keeps buy rating on Visa. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ How much ‘pain’ is the Fed willing to inflict? Wednesday’s rate hike will offer clues
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged the economic pain this rapid tightening regime may cause. A larger hike is possible, but unlikelySome economists even expect the Fed to implement a massive — and historic — full-point rate hike on Wednesday. It meant that people understood the seriousness of the Fed’s commitment to getting inflation rates back down to 2%, he said. They want higher bond yields,” former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley told CNN back in May. The Federal Reserve announces its rate hike decision Wednesday at 2 p.m.

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