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☆ Morgan Stanley's stock chief says a signal that flashed before the 2000, 2008, and 2020 market crashes is once again glaring red — and that big declines are still ahead for the S&P 500
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Forward earnings growth is now negative, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson points out. In a February 6 note to clients, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson reiterated his call that the S&P 500 hasn't seen a bottom yet. Wilson highlights this pattern in the chart below, showing forward EPS growth (yellow line) alongside S&P 500 price action (blue line). "History shows price downside is in front of us, not behind us," the chart's title reads. Morgan StanleyWilson said in December that he sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300 in the first quarter before recovering to 3,900 later this year.

We're buying 20 shares of Estee Lauder (EL) at roughly $248.20 each. That's kind of how Estee Lauder has traded of late. EL 1Y mountain Estee Lauder (EL) 1-year performance The quarter for this leader in prestige beauty was solid, and earnings handily beat expectations, with the company posting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.69 versus estimates of $1.29. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

☆ Disney board exposed itself to activist intervention, but Peltz may be overreaching
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Alex Sherman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Disney's share price spike in 2021 was caused by the same phenomenon — investors charging into streaming services with significant subscriber growth. Activist investor Nelson Peltz spent about 30 minutes Thursday morning speaking with CNBC's Jim Cramer and David Faber in a wide-ranging interview about why he wants a Disney board seat. Now Iger's back, and the Disney board has tasked him with finding a successor in the next two years. It's a far easier case to be made that Disney's board and Iger have consistently bungled succession planning. As Trian noted in its presentation (on Slide 28), the Disney board extended Iger's retirement date five different times between October 2011 and December 2017.

☆ UK stock funds lost a record $10 billion last year, new research shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.K.-focused equity funds saw record outflows in 2022. LONDON — Investors ditched U.K. stock funds at a record rate last year, according to new research, with the selling outpacing that in other major markets. That compared with £2.65 billion in outflows from other European stock funds, £1.17 billion from North American funds and £1 billion from Asia-Pacific funds. Meanwhile, passive equity funds, which track a stock market or market sector, saw their first year of net outflows on its records. Bright spots were global environmental, social, and corporate governance equity funds, which added £6.35 billion, and emerging market funds, which added £647 million.

☆ Europe’s recession may not be as bad as feared
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

On Wednesday, France’s statistics institute said consumer price inflation was 5.9% in December, down from 6.2% in November. A drop in energy prices drove the decline, the institute said. In Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, provisional data released on Tuesday showed that inflation had fallen to 8.6% in December, from 10% the month before. “If we are seeing a continued flight to value, then the relative cheapness of European stocks is a big plus,” he said. Benchmark prices for European natural gas futures have tumbled 10% since Monday to €69 ($73) per megawatt hour.

☆ Tax strategies to use before the New Year: How to take advantage of this year's stock market losses minimize your tax bill, and other tactics to keep in mind
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

For stock market investors, there are a number of strategies one can employ over the next couple of months to lower their tax bill for 2022, according to tax experts that spoke with Insider. One of the most common strategies is tax loss harvesting, said Tanya Taylor, the founder and CEO of Grow Your Wealth and former financial regulator with the New York Federal Reserve. Investors should also consider gains made outside of the stock market when thinking about tax loss harvesting, said Ryan McKeown, a financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement Group. Below are the 2022 income tax brackets. Tax FoundationAnother strategy investors can use to minimize their 2022 tax bill is to donate stock to charity, both McKeown and Freifeld said.

☆ This week's best-performing stocks include a popular sports apparel name and a drug maker
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks struggled this week as recession fears resurfaced, putting a damper on last hopes for a market uptick. CNBC Pro used FactSet data to screen for the stocks with the greatest week-to-date percentage changes as of Friday's open. About 46% of analysts rate the stocks as a buy, with the consensus price target implying upside of more than 7% from Thursday's close. The stock's down about 49% this year, but the consensus price target suggests shares stand to gain more than 41% from Thursday's close. Energy stocks APA Corp and Halliburton also made the list, with shares rising 4% and 6.4%, respectively, this week, as of Friday's open.

☆ "We're still early days in this downturn": A portfolio manager at Lazard reveals the 3 asset classes that will provide investors with the steadiest returns as recession fears mount — and shares 3 high
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But in a year like 2022 when stocks are down, real assets can suddenly look a lot more attractive to investors. On the other hand, real estate has been a relatively weak performer this year due to its inverse correlation with interest rates. Year-to-date the Lazard Real Assets fund is beating 85% of its peers, down 5.7% versus its category average of a negative 12% return. "It's gone from a second-class in the real estate space to now an integral part of the supply chain," he explained. Finally, in the infrastructure space McGoey highlighted Targa Resources (TRGP) as a key midstream player.

☆ Check out Contrary NYC, a 'Soho House for techies' community hangout that's generating buzz and drawing visitors like Serena Williams
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-13 | by ( Lakshmi Varanasi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Silicon Valley venture firm, Contrary, recently opened a community space for tech workers in New York. In September, Silicon Valley venture capital firm Contrary added another space to the list. Contrary NYC bills itself as a "Soho House for techies." Until recently, the space has mostly been accessible to people already associated with the firm— investors, founders, and fellows. I paid a visit to Contrary during the second week of October, the tail end of New York Tech Week — five days of events dedicated to the city's growing startup ecosystem.

Jordan Vonderhaar | Bloomberg | Getty Imageswatch nowSaylor was speaking on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" as FTX's demise roiled the crypto market. Bitcoin tumbled 19% in December, as investors rotated into assets deemed safer in a tumultuous economy. David Marcus, former head of crypto at Facebook parent Meta , used a phrase that would soon enter the lexicon. "It's during crypto winters that the best entrepreneurs build the better companies," Marcus wrote in a Jan. 24 tweet. Ryan Gilbert, founder of fintech venture firm Launchpad Capital, said the crypto world is facing a crisis of confidence after the FTX implosion.

☆ The election could be a big tailwind for stocks heading into the end of the year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The average annual return of the S & P 500 in the 12 months before a midterm election since 1962 is 0.3%, "significantly lower than the historical average of 8.1%," US Bancorp said in a recent note. In the 12-month period after a midterm election, the S & P is up an average of 16.3%. The outperformance was especially notable in the period three months and six months after the election, when the S & P was up 7.3% and 15.1% on average. Most attribute the reason for underperformance to policy uncertainty — investors do not know which political party will hold a majority in Congress, which resolves after the midterm election. The S & P was higher 88.9% of the time.

☆ Stocks are down big this year. Here's how you can use losses to your advantage — and other strategies to keep in mind — to pay as little tax as possible next year.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

One of the most common strategies is tax loss harvesting, said Tanya Taylor, the founder and CEO of Grow Your Wealth and former financial regulator with the New York Federal Reserve. "You're capitalizing on some of the gains but you won't need to pay taxes on it because you can offset it against the loss," Taylor said. Investors should also consider gains made outside of the stock market when thinking about tax loss harvesting, said Ryan McKeown, a financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement Group. Below are the 2022 income tax brackets. Tax FoundationAnother strategy investors can use to minimize their 2022 tax bill is to donate stock to charity, both McKeown and Freifeld said.

☆ We still believe in AMD's future potential, but near-term results make it difficult to see
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported fiscal third-quarter results that missed lowered expectations on after the closing bell Tuesday. Revenue in AMD's third-quarter increased 29% to $5.57 billion, missing estimates of $5.62 billion. Data center revenue remains resilient thanks to strong North American cloud demand, where AMD is strongest, while Embedded segment sales benefited from strong end market demand. While the long-term drivers of growth — cloud computing, gaming, and digitization — appear fully intact, the near-term issues must be resolved. Gaming revenue was $1.6 billion, up 14% year over year and also in line with estimates driven by higher semi-custom product sales.

☆ Lurking behind Britain’s political mess is an economy on the edge
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

London CNN Business —The spectacle surrounding Liz Truss, who on Thursday secured her fate as the shortest-serving prime minister in UK history, has quickly given way to a frenetic race to determine who will replace her. 10 Downing Street next will inherit an economic mess with no easy fixes. “A key focus for the next Prime Minister and their chosen Chancellor needs to be fiscal responsibility,” Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said in a statement on Friday. An economy in recessionEconomists agree that if the United Kingdom isn’t already in recession, one is likely to arrive soon. The cost of uncertaintyTruss has said the Conservative Party will install a new prime minister within a week.

☆ 5 signs the world is headed for a recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-02 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

New York CNN Business —Around the world, markets are flashing warning signs that the global economy is teetering on a cliff’s edge. There’s now a 98% chance of a global recession, according to research firm Ned Davis, which brings some sobering historical credibility to the table. In an interview, its CEO was asked whether he believes the slowdown was a sign of a looming global recession. The upshotWhile the consensus is that a global recession is likely sometime in 2023, it’s impossible to predict how severe it will be or how long it will last. Not every recession is as painful as the 2007-09 Great Recession, but every recession is, of course, painful.

☆ Ray Dalio says his hedge fund Bridgewater Associates is up around 25% this year. He shares 2 ways investors should approach a market he says is due to drop another 20% — and an area he's bullish on lo
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said on Wednesday that stocks are likely to fall further. Given his down outlook, Dalio was asked how investors should approach the current environment, and gave two answers. The former shields investors from rising or falling inflation rates, while nominal bonds can lose money when considering inflation. Dalio also recommended that investors keep their portfolios well-balanced and diversified, and avoid timing the market. "The most important thing that you can do is have a well-balanced portfolio, not to market time, but diversify," Dalio said.

There are three common metrics to evaluate dividend stocks: Dividend yield, dividend payout ratio, and dividend payout growth. Three important metrics can help you choose the best dividend stocks for your portfolio: dividend yield, dividend payout growth rate, and dividend payout ratio. Dividend payout growthThe dividend payout growth, also known as dividend growth rate (DGR), is the average percentage rate of growth a stock's dividend has experienced over a specific period (usually three, five, or 10 years). Dividend payout ratioFinally, look at the dividend payout ratio, or the percentage of a company's earnings or free cash flow used to cover dividend payments. Dividend yield vs. dividend growth rateA high dividend yield may signal a company that's not destined for a lot of growth.

We generate a present value for companies by estimating these outyear numbers and then discounting them to the present day using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model. That increased denominator means that present value of future earnings and cash flows declines. However, the present value of Company B's $10 in earnings is worth increasingly more relative to Company A's as rates rise. When rates go up — or are expected to go up — investors value companies using a lower valuation multiple. These so-called value stocks typically already have low multiples, making the risk of contraction less of an issue.

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