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☆ Russia is facing a 'time bomb' at the heart of its economy, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia is breaking down institutions and "borrowing from the future," Konstantin Sonin says. The economist notes Russia is taking measures to exert more control over its economy. But those actions are hurting Moscow's economic future, Sonin said. Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, said he foresaw a dark economic future ahead for Russia. Putin's war not only imposes on today's Russians a worse life than they otherwise would have had.

Persons: Konstantin Sonin, Sonin, — Organizations: Service, University of Chicago Harris School of Public, Syndicate, Heineken, International Monetary Fund Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow

☆ Chinese stocks could rally 15% as more stimulus spurs a GDP growth spurt next year, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Chinese stocks could climb as much as 15% on the nation's expected fiscal stimulus package, SocGen said. The stimulus measures could push China's GDP to grow as much as 5% next year, strategist said. The package could amount to as much as 3 trillion yuan, or $427 billion, and include an "open-ended commitment" for a bigger stimulus package the following year. "The exact magnitude of the boost will be subject to the size and details of the fiscal package … the sustainability of housing stabilization and household wealth recovery." AdvertisementOther experts have noted that China's monetary stimulus measures are unlikely to be effective without fiscal stimulus to go along with it.

Persons: SocGen, —, Société Générale Organizations: Service, National People's Conference Locations: Beijing, China

☆ 3 bullish catalysts could keep the bull rally alive and boost stocks 13% in the coming year, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The two-year-old bull market in stocks could last for another year, NDR strategists said. Median gains in the third year of a bull market are about 13%, the firm said in its analysis. AdvertisementThe latest bull market in stocks may still have a long life ahead of it, according to Ned Davis Research. In one instance, the bull market ended after the Fed reversed its rate cut decision, spooking investors. The S&P 500 has gained 60% since the index entered bull market territory in October 2022.

Persons: That's, —, Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Ned Davis Research, NDR Locations: Europe

☆ Why China's massive stimulus effort might not have any effect until next year
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The direct effects of China's latest stimulus may not kick in until 2025, one researcher says. That's because Beijing needs to ramp up spending in addition to monetary stimulus measures. Lower interest rates, for one, may not entice households and businesses to borrow, or banks to ramp up lending, given China's already-sluggish economic environment. In particular, Beijing needs more fiscal stimulus to go alongside its monetary stimulus measures, Huang said. Experts have warned that China's economic problems could stick around for the long term given some of the nation's deep-rooted issues, like its population decline.

Persons: —, Tianlei Huang, Huang Organizations: Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, National, Terry Locations: Beijing

☆ The economy is in an industrial recession and higher oil prices could spark a full downturn, Wall Street economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US is in an industrial recession, according to Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina. A spike in oil prices could be enough to tip the economy into a full recession, Oubina added. But in general, the economy's showing an industrial recession," Oubina said in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday. AdvertisementThe economy could slip into a broader recession if there's a spike in oil and energy prices, Oubina added. "Oil prices spiking, energy prices spiking in the past, have been enough to tip the economy from a slowing into a recession.

Persons: Piper Sandler, Jake Oubina, —, That's, Oubina, Brent Organizations: Service, Institute of Supply Management, Fox Business, Atlanta Fed, Bank of America Locations: Iran, Israel

☆ Russia's economy faces 'near stagnation' with sanctions whittling down annual GDP growth, European economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Russia's economy is staring at "near stagnation," according to Anders Åslund. That's according to Anders Åslund, a Swedish economist who says Russia's economy is taking a bigger hit from Western sanctions than some believe. "My own view is that the current sanctions regime shaves off 2-3% of GDP each year, condemning Russia to near stagnation. AdvertisementRussia's GDP technically grew 3.6% last year, with another 3.2% real GDP growth expected in 2024, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund. Consumer prices rose 8.5% year-per-year the week of September 17, according to official figures from Russia's Economic Development Ministry.

Persons: Anders Åslund, —, Putin, Åslund, SWIFT Organizations: Service, Ukraine, Syndicate, International Monetary Fund, Labor, Economic Development Ministry, Soviet Union, Wealth Fund Locations: Swedish, Moscow, Ukraine, Russia, Soviet

☆ Stock market today: Indexes extend losses as traders watch Middle East tensions
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices surged after Iran attacked Israel, fueling the sell-off. AdvertisementUS stocks dropped Wednesday as traders continued to monitor escalating tensions in the Middle East. Major indexes slumped in early morning trading while oil prices spiked for a second day, with the international crude benchmark up 2.7% to $75.63 a barrel. Investors sold stocks Tuesday after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel early Tuesday, causing some to flee to risk-off assets. "The stock market impact of geopolitical tensions largely centers around oil prices, and as long as oil prices remain below $100 per barrel and corporate profits remain strong, that is supportive of higher stock prices."

Persons: —, Mary Ann Bartels, Bartels Organizations: Service, Lombard, Sanctuary Wealth, Fed Locations: Iran, Israel

☆ OpenAI will let employees sell some stock after its monster fundraising round
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

OpenAI workers may soon be allowed to sell their shares in the AI firm, The Information reported. The report cited a memo sent to employees that said details on stock sales were being worked out. OpenAI raised $6.6 billion in its latest fundraising round. AdvertisementWorkers at OpenAI may soon get the opportunity to sell some of their shares in the company, The Information reported, citing a company memo. The move to allow employees to cash in follows the ChatGPT creator's $6.6 billion fundraising round.

Persons: OpenAI, —, Sarah Friar, OpenAI's, Friar, Sam Altman, Mira Murati Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Nvidia, Wall Street Locations: OpenAI

☆ Stock market today: US stocks edge up amid Middle East turmoil as traders turn to incoming data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks closed higher on Wednesday as traders looked to coming economic data. The September jobs report, a key data point for the next rate move, is due out Friday. AdvertisementUS stocks ended slightly higher on Wednesday as traders anticipated key economic data in the US and looked past simmering tensions in the Middle East. Markets are also taking in positive jobs data, with the private sector adding 143,000 jobs last month, according to ADP. The latter will serve as a key data point when central bankers decide how much further to cut interest rates.

Persons: Traders, —, José Torres, Torres, tomorrow's Organizations: Service, Investors, Interactive Brokers, ADP, Here's Locations: Iran, Israel

☆ The port strike will tip the US into recession if it lasts more than a month, researcher says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The port strike could spark a US recession if it lasts four weeks or longer, Sea-Intelligence's Alan Murphy said. AdvertisementThe economy could see a hard landing if the ongoing port strike lasts long enough, according to one industry researcher. Alan Murphy, the CEO of the liner research firm Sea-Intelligence, estimates the US could tip into recession if the port strike lasts longer than a month. AdvertisementIf the strike lasts longer than a week, importers will likely have a "manageable crisis" on their hands, Murphy said. "By estimates, it's almost certain to push the US into a recession this year if it lasts longer than a month," he added.

Persons: Alan Murphy, —, Murphy, Biden Organizations: Shipping, Service, Intelligence, NBC, International Longshoremen's Association, US Maritime Alliance Locations: Gulf Coast

☆ Investing in China's stock market is like 'picking up dimes in front of bulldozers' given the nation's long-running stagnation, 'Big Short' investor Kyle Bass says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors shouldn't be putting their money in Chinese stocks for the long term, according to Kyle Bass. The "Big Short" investor pointed to the long-running stagnation in Chinese stocks. AdvertisementInvesting in China over the long term is nothing short of a bad idea, according to "Big Short" investor Kyle Bass. The Hayman Capital founder said he's still bearish on China, despite the historic run-up in Chinese stocks after Beijing unveiled a fresh stimulus package. Bass has been bearish on China for years, previously shorting the Chinese yuan before closing his position in 2019.

Persons: Kyle Bass, —, he's, China hasn't, Bass, you'll Organizations: Investors, Service, Hayman Capital, CNBC, Communist Locations: China, Beijing, Hong, Kong, Taiwan, Russia

☆ The stock market is headed for a 10% correction as the job market slows and inflation stays sticky, Stifel stock chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The bank's stock-strategy chief pointed to the slowing job market and the potential for sticky inflation. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe stock market could be headed into an end-of-the-year correction, according to Stifel's Barry Bannister. The slowing job market has already caught the attention of investors, who are watching for signs of continued economic weakness. "It's very hard to justify getting below 3% without a slowdown," Bannister said of interest rates.

Persons: Stifel's Barry Bannister, —, " Bannister, Bannister Organizations: Service, CNBC, Conference, Challenger, Investors, Investor

☆ US homes are turning over at the lowest rate in 30 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

That's the lowest turnover rate the market has seen in at least three decades, the firm estimated. Elevated mortgage rates and home prices have been keeping some buyers on the sidelines. That's the lowest turnover rate for any first-eight-month period in at least 30 years, the firm said, comparing the current housing environment to the early- to mid-90s. In that era, home sales were at similar levels, though the total supply of homes was larger, which drove a higher turnover rate, the report added. Homes sales, meanwhile, could notch 4.3 million by the end of the year, a 5% boost from last year's levels, it added.

Persons: —, Elijah de la, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service, San Locations: Redfin, Los Angeles, Boston, San Francisco

☆ War with Ukraine is the only thing preventing Russia from entering an immediate recession, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Russia would be in a recession by now if it weren't for the nation's hefty war budget, economists told BI. War spending is propping up the economy, which is becoming increasingly overheated, they added. AdvertisementWar may be the only thing keeping Russia's economy afloat. Russia's economy is also being plagued by currency problems, Gorodnichenko said, pointing to Russia's limited access to the dollar as the result of Western sanctions. That will ultimately depend on how long the war in Ukraine — and therefore, spending on the war — will last.

Persons: —, Jay Zagorsky, there's, Zagorsky, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Gorodnichenko, That's Organizations: Service, Boston University's Questrom School of Business, Kremlin, Ukraine, University of California, Bank of, Russia, Ukraine — Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Russian, Berkeley, Bank of Russia, Soviet, China

☆ Why Nvidia stock could soar over 500% by the end of the decade, former consulting exec says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Nvidia could rocket another 545% by the end of the decade, Phil Panaro predicted. AdvertisementNvidia is headed for a meteoric run-up by the end of the decade, according to one former consulting exec. "Not to sound overconfident — it's actually inevitable provided that they can continue to make these chips," he later added of the firm's upside potential. Some strategists have been skeptical over Nvidia's rally, with the stock up a monster 2,733% over the last five years. "That's actually the best case for why it's actually going to go up.

Persons: Phil Panaro, Blackwell, —, Phil Panaro —, Jensen Huang, Panaro, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, — it's, That's, it's, haven't Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Boston Consulting Group, Goldman, Citigroup, Schwab Network, Blackwell, Big Tech, Fortune, Analysts, Nasdaq Locations: Web2

☆ The job market is reaching a turning point that will usher even steeper Fed rate cuts, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The job market is about to see a big shift that could bring faster Fed rate cuts, David Rosenberg said. That will emphasize the need for faster Fed rate cuts, he said in a note to clients. The ratio of the vacancy rate to the unemployment rate has tumbled in recent months. It's the unemployment rate that's moving up (+0.5 percentage points this year alone), while the vacancy rate has stabilized." "As the labor market eases, we'll see more modest changes in the vacancy rate and larger changes in the unemployment rate.

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg, we've, Powell Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Atlanta

☆ The housing market is seeing its biggest logjam since before the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The housing market is in the midst of its biggest slowdown since the pandemic, according to Redfin. Homes stayed on the market for the longest in West Palm Beach, Florida, with listings taking a median 79 days before being sold. That was followed by Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and Jacksonville, Florida, where homes stayed on the market for a median 75 and 65 days respectively. Seattle was the hottest housing market in the nation last month, with homes staying on the market for a median of 12 days, per Redfin's report. "Anyone who has been paying attention to the housing market over the past few years knows that desirable homes sell right away," Fairweather said.

Persons: It's, Darryl Fairweather, Redfin's, " Fairweather, Redfin Organizations: Business, . Homes, Federal Reserve, Buyers Locations: Towns, Florida, Texas, Palm Beach , Florida, Fort Lauderdale , Florida, Jacksonville , Florida, Seattle, Indianapolis , Indiana, Warren , Michigan

☆ It could soon get a lot harder for Russia to deal in Chinese yuan
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A key US license allowing Russian yuan transactions is set to expire mid-October. That could make Chinese banks more hesitant to deal in Russia, worsening Moscow's yuan shortage. AdvertisementIt may about to be way harder for Russia to get its hands on Chinese yuan. Dollar and euro trading on the Moscow Exchange have already been shut down with the latest round of Western sanctions. Chinese banks have also held up billions of dollars worth of yuan payments intended for Russia, Reuters reported last month, which has also contributed to the yuan shortage.

Persons: — Organizations: Reuters, Service, US Treasury, Moscow Exchange, National Clearing Center, Treasury, Bank of Locations: Russia, Moscow, Bank of Russia

☆ Why Micron is the latest AI darling — for today at least
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Micron has seized the limelight in the AI space after its latest earnings report. AdvertisementMicron is stealing the show in the AI space — at least for now — as investors bask in its latest earnings results. Though its year-to-date gains have badly lagged other AI behemoths like Nvidia, Micron shares rose as much as 20%. Trading volume jumped to 42.5 million mid-day Thursday, outpacing interest in other firms in the AI space, like Intel, Tesla, and Palantir. Bank of America raised its price target for Micron to $125 a share, implying over 30% upside.

Persons: —, Rosenblatt, William Kerwin, David Morrison Organizations: Micron, Wall Street, Service, Nvidia, Intel, Micro Computer, Tesla, Bank of America, MU, Morningstar, Bloomberg, Nasdaq, Micron Technology, Trade Nation Locations: New York

☆ Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as record-setting rally wavers ahead of more data, Fedspeak
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The rally in US stocks took a breather on Wednesday as traders looked ahead to coming economic data. Major indexes wobbled and bond yields were slightly higher. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Major stock averages pulled back slightly after notching a series of record-highs since last week's rate cut, while bond yields edged up slightly. "Traders will be curious to hear more thoughts on the rate cut and any guidance on further monetary policy easing."

Persons: —, Powell, Hogan, Riley Wealth Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, US Treasury Market Conference, Federal

☆ A key US consumer indicator has dipped to 'crisis levels,' SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The savings rate slumped below 3% prior to the 2008 financial crisis, SocGen strategist Albert Edwards said in a note to clients on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe low savings rate attests to strong consumer spending, which has propped up the economy so far. That sounds like it should be good news, but the issue is that the savings rate is likely to rise again after plummeting to such low levels. Related storiesThat was what happened leading up to the Great Financial Crisis, when an uptick in the savings rate preceded the recession, Edwards noted. And while households aren't nearly as indebted as they were during the financial crisis, Americans are still showing signs of financial strain.

Persons: —, Société, Albert Edwards, Edwards, " Edwards Organizations: Service, Commerce Department, Business, Primerica, San Francisco, McKinsey & Company, US, New York Fed

☆ Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 drop as rally loses steam ahead of fresh economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are bracing for the latest GDP revision, jobless claims, and PCE inflation data in the coming days. Traders are still pricing in considerable rate cuts well into next year, per the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, ending a record-setting streak of gains as traders looked ahead to coming economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 300 points and the S&P 500 slipped from record highs, ending the day about 0.2% lower. Traders are still expecting steep rate cuts over the course of the next year.

Persons: —, Scott Wren, Wells Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, US, Micron Technologies, Micron Locations: Wells Fargo, East, Ukraine

☆ The stock market rally risks sparking an unsustainable 'melt-up' as the economy overheats, market vet Ed Yardeni says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market runs a bigger risk of an unsustainable melt-up, according to Ed Yardeni. AdvertisementStocks run the risk of seeing an unsustainable, dot-com style melt-up, thanks to the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. That move sparked a rally in stocks to fresh records —but it's also raised the odds of a stock market melt-up, he said, meaning investors are now facing the risk of an unsustainable market boom. And while inflation has cooled from its highs several years ago, it is still a risk, Yardeni noted. Advertisement"If they get to overheat the economy and get to create a bubble in the stock market, yeah they're creating some issues," Yardeni added.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, —, Stocks, it's, Yardeni, Michelle Bowman, haven't Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Yardeni, Labor Department, Atlanta Fed

☆ The Fed isn't going to be able to cut interest rates as much as it wants to, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed probably can't take rates as low as it would like to, according to Larry Summers. Summers pointed to the Fed's target of 2.9% for the so-called neutral rate. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementThe Fed doesn't have the wiggle room to cut interest rates as low as it hopes to, according to ex-Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. In an interview with Bloomberg, Summers said central bankers have likely underestimated the so-called neutral rate, which is the level that neither expands nor contracts the economy.

Persons: Larry Summers, Summers, — Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business

☆ Americans running out of unemployment benefits and part-time jobs at record levels point to a recession coming, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The job market is flashing signs the US is still headed for a hard-landing, Danielle DiMartino Booth says. The forecaster pointed to workers rolling off unemployment benefits, while part-time jobs have soared. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The veteran forecaster and QI Research founder pointed to continued signs of weakness in the US job market, zooming in on a few key areas that are flashing signs of trouble. Booth said that more workers who once qualified for unemployment insurance are now rolling off of their benefits.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, —, Booth Organizations: Consumers, Service, QI Research, Workers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business

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