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Private equity is being squeezed from all sides
  + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
But this time around there’s a lot more private equity money chasing a limited number of opportunities. So private equity funds could face the prospect of a prolonged period of higher borrowing costs, lower valuations, and depressed investment returns. The birth of private equity coincided with the Reagan administration’s policy of relaxing regulations and tax cuts. Recent high profile corporate bankruptcies owned by private equity include car-rental firm Hertz and retailer Toys R Us. The private equity industry could soon find itself caught in a pincer, between tighter financing on the one hand and tighter regulation on the other.
The latest price hikes could mean Tesla is done lathering on the discounts for now. Elon Musk is changing his mind about Tesla pricing – again. Recent hikes are a sign to investors that Musk is likely done price-slashing for now. Even with this hike, base Model Y prices are down 24% since January and base Model 3 prices are down 14% over the same period. "When you lease, you can really bypass a lot of the problems that come with pricing," Drury said.
Goldman Sachs' M&A team operates under a similar mandate, albeit with a few more zeros. Why bother stressing over 10 $1 billion deals when you can just do a $10 billion deal? It's not just the M&A market that's facing issues. The bank has held the top spot on the year-end M&A league tables for decades, but it is hearing footsteps. More on Goldman's M&A strategy amid an industry drought.
The economic and political influence of the private equity sector has exploded in the last 20 years. It's true that few topics have attracted greater attention from not only crusading journalists but serious academics than the impact of private equity ownership. This supports their belief that private equity firms "carry very little risk if the company fails." This view of a "typical" private equity deal is simply untrue: Even back in 2005, the average loan-to-value percentage for new private equity deals was 68% — firms already contributed over 30% in equity to the deals not under 10% as claimed. 'Smart buyer, dumb seller'One of the important developments in private equity of the last decades has been the emergence of major private funds focused on technology investing.
At $517 billion, Tesla's market capitalization ended Thursday below Meta Platforms' (META.O) for the first time since 2021. Tesla's automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits and leasing, stood at 18.3%, missing an 'above 20%' target provided in January by Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn. At least 15 analysts cut their Tesla price targets following Tesla's report, pulling the median target of 42 analysts from $210 down to $200, or about 23% above the stock's current level, according to Refinitiv data. Investors dumped automaker shares from Europe to the United States on fears that they too will sacrifice margins to maintain market share. Tesla remains up 32% year to date, far outperforming the S&P 500's (.SPX) 8% rise.
The company announced its latest price cut, its sixth of the year, just earlier this week. Tesla’s profit margins are still well ahead of those of traditional automakers. But the company’s refusal to give any guidance on where its profit margins might go from here only fed investor concerns. Tesla shares had their worst year on record in 2022, losing 65% of its value. “We expect Tesla stock to remain under some pressure in the current macro environment,” said Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner in a note to clients.
Tesla reported record-breaking Q1 deliveries of 422,875 vehicles. Analysts warn price cuts alone can't keep competition at bay. This record-breaking first-quarter delivery report from comes after Tesla engaged in a series of price cuts and other purchase incentives for the last several months, a move that some investors worried would have too much adverse impact on the company's profit margins. Other analysts and industry experts initially wondered if Musk was using price cuts to turn Tesla's demand problem into an advantage over his competitors. But analysts warn that price cuts alone cannot stave off competition forever.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRate hikes turned bank security portfolios upside down: Graham's Josh RosmerJosh Rosner, Graham Fisher managing director, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Rosner's thoughts on the weekend's developments, why it's a problem to insure bank assets, and more.
As the image shows, on an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) basis, Ford Model e had a profit margin of roughly negative 40% in 2022. Ford Motor disclosed on Thursday that its electric vehicle unit, called Ford Model e, lost $2.1 billion in 2022 — and could lose as much as $3 billion in 2023. Here, step by step, is how Lawler said Ford expects Model e to get to a positive 8% EBIT profit margin in under four years:Scale. Ford expects to have the capacity to build EVs at a rate of 2 million per year by the end of 2026. Ford expects to have the capacity to build EVs at a rate of 2 million per year by the end of 2026.
The bank's "Battery Electric Vehicles Basket" comprises several stocks across the EV supply chain, including automakers Rivian , Lucid and Li Auto . This may be the opportune moment for Chinese EV brands to knock on the doors of Europe." Among the Chinese EV makers, BYD, Nio and Xpeng are "the ones to watch," according to Bernstein. "We expect Chinese EV players to find better success targeting the compact, mass market EV segment that has so far been under-penetrated in Europe," the bank said. Tesla and under-the-radar plays Tesla is one of Deutsche Bank 's top picks in the EV space.
Tesla has long been an investor favorite for exposure to the electric vehicle transition, but not everyone is convinced. Berkshire Hathaway-backed BYD , for example, is often touted as a better bet than Tesla. BYD is so much ahead of Tesla in China ... it's almost ridiculous," Charlie Munger, vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, said last month . "Long term, Tesla is not a car company and that's the difference. 'Take profit' in Tesla Wall Street veteran David Trainer has a more bearish view, however, as he urged investors to "take profit" in Tesla.
Analysts aren't budging on Tesla coming off an investor day that they see as offering little detail on the electric vehicle maker's future plans. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, a noted bear on the stock, called the meeting "somewhat disjointed and fairly technical." The investor day came as investors grow increasingly cautious following Musk's chaotic purchase of Twitter and recent price cuts to some Tesla models . Wells Fargo Analyst: Colin Langan Price target: $190, a downside of 6.3% from Wednesday's close Rating: Staying equal weight "It's unclear how long the recent Model3/Y price cuts will sustain demand. There was also no comment on a Model 3/Y refresh or any major update on Tesla Bot or FSD.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFord's turnaround attempt coming way too late, warns Deutsche Bank auto analystEmmanuel Rosner, Deutsche Bank lead auto and auto technology analyst, on what Ford's issues mean for the auto trade. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami and Jeff Mills.
A large fourth-quarter miss from Ford is sending a warning signal to analysts at Deutsche Bank. The guidance and fourth-quarter miss "in our view showcase considerable operational shortfalls and suggest meaningful downside risk to earnings trajectory," he said. According to Rosner, Ford lacks a clear path toward improving its returns and also runs the risk of an acceleration in electric vehicle losses. He trimmed the bank's price target to $11 from $13 a share, representing more than 23% downside from Thursday's close. As of Thursday's close, Ford shares are up more than 23% this year following a 44% slump in 2022.
The Doomsday Clock is now 10 seconds closer to midnight. Scientists moved the clock's second hand to 90 seconds to midnight on January 24. "90 seconds to midnight is the closest the Clock has ever been set to midnight, and it's a decision our experts do not take lightly," Bronson added. In 2018, the Doomsday Clock was set at two minutes to midnight after President Donald Trump's continuous rhetoric about boosting the US' stash of nuclear weapons. And in 2020, the clock was moved to 100 seconds to midnight — which at the time was the closest to the apocalypse it had been in history.
Tuesday Johnson & Johnson is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. What history shows: Johnson & Johnson has beaten earnings expectations 95% of the time, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Wednesday Boeing is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a call with analysts at 10:30 a.m. What history shows: FactSet data shows Boeing has posted a greater-than-expected loss in the last five quarters. Tesla is set to report earnings after the close, with management set to hold a call at 5:30 p.m.
Mobileye has the potential to further elevate its reputation in the autonomous and assisted-driving world, according to Deutsche Bank. Further, customer reception is gaining momentum, he said, as six carmakers have already signed up for one of its hands-off driving products called SuperVision. MBLY 1D mountain Mobileye stock Rosner expects Mobileye's revenue to hit nearly $6 billion by 2026 and exceed $18 billion by 2030 — up from the $1.8 billion revenue seen in 2022. Per-share earnings should grow similarly from 72 cents in 2022 to $2.40 by 2026 and nearly $8 in 2030. He also said there's also the potential for the company to secure relationships with large automakers such as Ford , Porsche and Audi.
Tesla has been resorting to the same tricks car companies use to paper over their problems. Tesla cuts pricesAt the end of 2021, rental-car giant Hertz said it had ordered 10,000 Tesla Model 3s for its fleet. The announcement was met with excitement from EV boosters, but automotive industry experts and executives wondered at the time if this was an early sign of over-building at Tesla. Experts think discounts will continueMeanwhile, Tesla's stock price is plummeting amid Musk's controversies at Twitter and worries from analysts that the car company is essentially operating without a CEO at the moment. Experts and analysts will be watching to see if the electric car company returns to its no-discount way of life, or continues to pull from old industry playbooks.
The study participants all had blood-sodium concentrations considered to be within the normal range: 135 to 146 millimoles per liter. Even people with blood-sodium levels above 142 millimoles per liter had elevated risks of developing certain chronic diseases, including heart failure, stroke, chronic lung disease, diabetes and dementia, the study found. Dmitrieva's previous research similarly found that higher blood sodium may be a risk factor for heart failure. But the study authors cautioned that more research is needed to determine whether good hydration can help slow aging, prevent disease or lead to a longer life. The NIH study "doesn’t prove that drinking more water will prevent chronic disease," he said.
Reaching those numbers required cuts of up to 9% of the Model 3 and Model Y sale prices. Strong competition in China and EuropeMusk's auto company faces similar battles in Europe, the second-biggest EV market, behind China. Globally, Tesla's Model Y led the market last quarter, making up 7.5% of EV sales, Counterpoint reported. Competition is chipping away at Tesla's market share in the US, too. S&P Global Mobility predicts Tesla's market share will drop to 20% by 2025.
JERUSALEM, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Israel's NewMed Energy (NWMDp.TA) said on Thursday it was leaning towards building a floating liquefied national gas (FLNG) terminal to further develop its Leviathan gas field off Israel's Mediterranean coast. "The floating (LNG terminal) is really where we are heading right now," chief executive Yossi Abu told Reuters after NewMed issued third-quarter financial results that beat estimates. NewMed earned a net $123 million in July-September, compared with a $50 million loss a year earlier. Revenue net of royalties from natural gas rose 28% to $265 million in the quarter. Over the first nine months of the year, 8.5 bcm of natural gas has been produced from Leviathan, NewMed said.
The electric-vehicle startups Rivian, Lucid, and Canoo released third-quarter results this week. Rivian and Lucid each made progress toward their production goals for the year and steadily increased customer deliveries. Canoo has yet to make any production vehicles. After it closed the gap in the second quarter, Rivian's pace of deliveries again fell behind production by 779 vehicles. Lucid underwent some changes in the third quarter following a rough second quarter.
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe Ford logo is pictured at the 2019 Frankfurt Motor Show (IAA) in Frankfurt, Germany. "The inflationary costs are concerning as they could persist into Q4 and 2023," Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said. It was unclear if chip and parts supply will normalize by the end of the year, Deutsche Bank's Rosner said. Ford's shares were trading at $13.52, with the stock on track for the worst day since February if losses hold. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Kannaki Deka in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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