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☆ Morning Bid: Markets drift ahead of central bank extravaganza
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur BanerjeeAfter surprise interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada, investors are a bit nervy heading into a week that brings us three major central banks meetings. Last week's moves have inflamed uncertainty in investor minds about whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will skip or surprise on Wednesday. CME Fedwatch tool showed the probability of the Fed standing still is over 70%, but with inflation data due on Tuesday there may just be a late sting in the tail. No such surprises are expected from the European Central Bank or Bank of Japan, with markets widely expecting the ECB to hike and stay hawkish, and the BOJ to stick to its ultra-loose monetary policy. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsWith not a lot on the data calendar, stocks in Asia are muted, while the U.S. dollar is steady.

Persons: Ankur Banerjee, BioNTech, Crispin Odey, Nicola Sturgeon, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Ankur, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Fed, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, CME, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S ., Nikkei, Odey, Management, Scottish First, Scottish National Party ., Thomson Locations: Asia, Germany, Britain, Denmark, Czech Republic, Turkey, Singapore

☆ Dollar steady, with Fed pause eyed in busy central bank week
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Policy meetings of the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will set the tone for the week, as markets seek clues from policymakers on the future path of interest rates. The U.S. dollar index clocked a loss of nearly 0.5% last week, its worst weekly drop since mid-April, and was last marginally higher at 103.58. "Outside of the decisions that the central banks make at this meeting, what will be of particular interest is their forward guidance," economists at ANZ wrote in a note. "Central banks have raised rates aggressively over the past 12-15 months and given the lagged effects with which monetary policy affects demand, are central banks teeing up for a pause, following the RBNZ's example?" "We change our BOJ call to no YCC revision at this week's meeting," said Societe Generale's Jin Kenzaki, referring to the central bank's controversial yield curve control policy.

Persons: Alvin Tan, Jin Kenzaki Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Money, U.S, Reuters, ECB, ANZ, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Asia, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.71% this week, according to Freddie Mac, while it was at 6.35% on May 11. The good news is that 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates have dropped a little since last week. If the Fed pauses rates, this would likely take the upward pressure off of mortgage rates. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

Persons: Freddie Mac, you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal Reserve, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Chevron

☆ Stock market news: The Fed meets next week. What can investors expect?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The S&P 500 Index last week entered a bull market, meaning that it notched a 20% rally from its low in October. Moreover, investors appeared calmer than they have in years, after the United States suspended the debt ceiling in time to avoid a default, allowing investors to breathe a sigh of relief. The May Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports, two key inflation prints, are also due the days that the Fed meets. But the United States could still suffer a downgrade to its credit rating, even though it avoided losing its ability to make payments on time. Tuesday: Consumer Price Index report for May and NFIB small business optimism index.

Persons: CNN — Stocks, Price, ”, JJ Kinahan, there’s, Karim El Nokali, Jerome Powell, ” El Nokali, —, Joe Biden, Benjamin Jeffery, Patrick Klein, ” Josh Lipsky, it’s, Olivier d’Assier, “ It’s, George Mateyo Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Nasdaq, United, Fed, IG North America, Fitch, AAA, BMO Capital Markets, Franklin, GeoEconomics, International Monetary Fund, Treasury Department, US Treasury, Key Private Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Federal, University of Michigan Locations: United States, US

☆ S&P 500 futures are little changed as traders look ahead to key inflation data, Fed meeting: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

S&P 500 futures were little changed Sunday night as traders looked ahead to the latest inflation data and the Federal Reserve policy meeting this week. S&P 500 futures added 0.14%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 19 points, or 0.06%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.27%. Investors are coming off a positive week for markets, with the S&P 500 posting its fourth straight week of gains, and brushing its highest point since August. Investors will also be watching for Tuesday's consumer price index, as well as monitoring the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Persons: Dow, there's, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Investors

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than 4 basis points to 3.755%. The 2-year Treasury yield was trading more than 4 basis points higher at 4.566%. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting next week, where officials will announce a fresh interest rate decision. Investors weighed what could be next for interest rates ahead of the Fed's next meeting on June 13 and 14. Further data points are expected before the Fed makes its decision, including May's consumer inflation report on Tuesday.

Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Beware the real shrinkflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What's scarier is the shrinkflation that's happening in economies. But it's still "too high" and "set to remain so for too long," said European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. But with April's inflation jumping more than expected to 6.8%, the central bank seems compelled to slow the economy further. Yesterday's gains in markets is certainly welcome, but investors should beware shrinkflation hitting the U.S. economy as well.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Philip Lowe, shrinkflation Organizations: CNBC, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Canada, Australia, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Economies can suffer from shrinkflation too
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

View of the building which houses the headquarters of the European Economic and Social Committee and the European Committee of the Regions on April 28, 2023 in Brussels, Belgium. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But it's still "too high" and "set to remain so for too long," said European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. But with April's inflation jumping more than expected to 6.8%, the central bank seems compelled to slow the economy further.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Philip Lowe, shrinkflation Organizations: European Economic, Social Committee, European Committee of, Regions, CNBC, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Canada, Australia, U.S

☆ Investors are shifting into high-yield ETFs with a potential Fed pause on the horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) , brought in nearly $1.2 billion in cash over the past week, according to FactSet. Investors bought into the iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) . The interest in high yield debt comes ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. "High yield's kind of in a sweet spot right now. The spread between high yield and safer debt could widen in coming months if the labor market continues to weaken, but the high yield market appears to be of better quality than in previous economic cycles, Silapachai said.

Persons: It's, Komson Silapachai, Silapachai Organizations: Investors, Sage Advisory, P Regional, Corporate Locations: Austin , Texas

☆ European stocks marginally lower as global markets look for direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European stocks were marginally lower Thursday as global markets appeared hesitant and lacking in direction. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 0.1% in morning trading, with most sectors trading in negative territory. Tech stocks led losses with a 1.3% downturn, followed by telecom, which was down 1.1%. Markets seem to be in a holding pattern while awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on June 13 and 14. Markets are pricing about a 66% chance that the Fed keeps rates steady at the next meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Organizations: Tech, Fed Locations: Asia, Pacific

☆ Asian shares slide as traders fret on Fed rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.53%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) edged 0.08% higher. The move from the BoC comes after Australia's central bank also stunned markets by hiking interest rates earlier this week. Treasury yields were stable in early Asian hours after surging overnight after the move from Canada's central bank. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 0.4 basis points at 4.554%. In the currency market, the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, eased 0.029%, with the euro up 0.09% to $1.0707.

Persons: Ryan Brandham, hawkish, Hong, HSI, Saxo, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, BoC, Validus Risk Management, Reserve Bank of Australia, Fed, Saxo Markets, Traders, Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, North America, China, Canada's

☆ The stock market rally faces a conundrum as inflation can't fall enough to please the Fed while the economy is this strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

That's because inflation may not fall enough while the economy stays strong. The firm warned that rate hikes could continue, which would be a headwind for the stock market. Colas predicted that the rally in stocks will continue through the end of June, though the market could face a conundrum in the third quarter as inflation and Fed rate expectations become repriced. Commentators have warned more rate hikes are in order before the Fed gets inflation fully under control, though higher rates will likely be a headwind for stocks. The S&P 500 slumped 20% last year amid the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, notching its worst performance since 2008.

Persons: DataTrek, —, Nicholas Colas, Colas, that's Organizations: Service, Research, Federal, Fed

☆ Morning Bid: O Canada! Markets wary of Fed hawkish surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur BanerjeeAnother day, another surprise hike. Broader consensus is that the Fed will do at least one more hike. The CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of the Fed hiking by 25 bps next week is 36%, it was 22% a day earlier. With a light data calendar and futures pointing to a mixed open in Europe, markets could drift on Thursday. Economists expect the Federal Reserve to pause on its tightening cycle on its June 13-14 meeting as price pressures soften and as its key rate rises above inflation for the first time since mid-2020.

Persons: Ankur Banerjee, Ryan Cohen, Coinbase, Brian Armstrong, Gary Gensler, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Ankur, Reserve Bank, Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, U.S, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Asia, Japan, Europe, Singapore

☆ Dollar adrift as traders assess Fed options; Aussie buoyant
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In the broader currency market, the U.S. dollar dipped in early Asia trade, as traders pared back their expectations of a rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting. Against the greenback, sterling rose 0.08% to $1.2432, while the kiwi gained 0.08% to $0.6084. "We don't think the FOMC will hike next week ... but risks again are skewed to the upside," said Kong. The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.03% to 104.05, while the euro rose 0.07% to $1.0698. CRYPTO SHAKEOUTIn the cryptoverse, bitcoin , the world's biggest cryptocurrency, was last marginally higher at $27,273, after jumping nearly 6% on Tuesday.

Persons: Philip Lowe, Carol Kong, Lowe, CRYPTO, Coinbase, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Tony Sycamore, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S, Fed, The U.S, European Central Bank, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, IG Markets, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, The, Turkish

☆ Stock futures are little changed on Wednesday night as rally hesitates: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures were flat on Wednesday evening, as investors await the next market catalyst. Futures linked to the S&P 500 ticked lower by 0.04%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched down by 0.09%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 17 points or 0.05%. During the regular session Wednesday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite appeared to take a breather from their recent rally. "It's widely expected they will pause, but it's really going to be important what their guidance is and what the [consumer price index] number on Tuesday will be and the [producer price index]."

Persons: Matthew Furlong, Ryan Cohen, Dow, Barbara Doran, it's, Jeff Cox Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, GameStop, Fed, BD8 Capital Partners, Federal

Average 30-year mortgage rates inched toward 7% at the end of last month, but they've since calmed down. A pause or cut in rates would likely remove some of the upward pressure off mortgage rates and allow them to trend down somewhat. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.18% right now, according to Freddie Mac data.

Persons: Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal, Zillow Locations: Chevron

The S&P 500 index (.SPX) rose 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) climbed 0.28%. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.37%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was little changed. With major share markets all in the black, investors might think that stocks are set to rise further. Government bond yields - a proxy for borrowing rates - eased earlier after a European Central Bank (ECB) survey showed euro zone consumers had lowered their inflation expectations. Australia's central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point to 4.1% - an 11-year high - and warned that further increases might be required to ensure inflation is brought back under control.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, James Rossiter, Bitcoin, Nansen, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, SEC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Securities, Treasury, European Central Bank, Canada, Securities Senior Global, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of, Aussie, Reserve Bank of, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Government, Australia's, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Binance, Saudi Arabia

The Aussie was last up 0.6% at $0.6656, after leaping as high as $0.6686, a level last seen on May 16. "For this week it will be wait-and-see mode for euro-dollar," Al-Saraf said, expecting euro-dollar to remain rangebound around 1.07. Meanwhile, the dollar was flat at 139.58 yen , while sterling fell 0.2% to $1.2410. Elsewhere, bitcoin attempted to find its feet around $25,700, after tumbling 5.1% on Monday in its biggest drop since April 19. Reporting by Samuel Indyk and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill and Ed OsmondOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Sean Callow, Chris Turner, Mohamad Al, Saraf, bitcoin, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Ed Osmond Organizations: Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S, Westpac, Bank of, BoC, Canadian, CENTRAL FOCUS, Market, Danske Bank, Fed, European Central Bank, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: U.S

In the previous session, the index dropped as data pointing to tepid U.S. business activity sparked profit-taking following gains in the prior week. MSCI's broadest index of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) was largely flat, while Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) gained 0.90% and China's blue-chip index (.CSI300) dropped almost 1%. Three months ago, the question was how fast would rate hikes come. Now, a pause and then more U.S. rates hikes could follow as a result of sticky inflation, said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments. In oil markets, prices gave up most gains from the previous session after the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, said it would further cut output.

Persons: Toby Melville, Germany's DAX, Mike Kelly, We're, Gary Dugan, bitcoin, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Reserve, British Retail Consortium, Tokyo's Nikkei, Reserve Bank of Australia, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, PineBridge Investments, Saxo Markets, Dalma, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, U.S, Saudi Arabia

☆ Dollar on back foot after weak ISM; Aussie awaits RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin sagged toward the psychological $25,000 mark after U.S. regulators sued Binance, the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange. "The soft ISM services PMI was unexpected to say the least," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Markets in Sydney. The dollar was little changed at 139.55 yen , while the euro edged 0.08% higher to $1.0718. "The market is still short the Aussie dollar," he said. Elsewhere, bitcoin attempted to find its feet around $25,370, after tumbling 5.1% overnight in its biggest drop since April 19.

Persons: Binance, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, you've, bitcoin, Changpeng Zhao, Kevin Buckland, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of, Global, U.S, Fed, Market, PMI, IG Markets, Services, China, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Sydney

☆ Asian stocks wobble as traders weigh Fed rate pause option
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A string of economic data along with last week's dovish rhetoric from Fed officials have emboldened bets of the Fed refraining from an interest rate hike at its June 13-14 meeting. Saxo strategists said recession concerns, firmer signs of Fed rate cuts or China stimulus measures may be needed to turn sentiment on the energy markets. In the currency market, the dollar index , which measures greenback against six major peers, eased 0.01%. The Australian dollar eased 0.02% to $0.661 as traders wait for the policy decision from the country's central bank. "We expect the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold," analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note.

Persons: Australia's, Hong, nonfarm, Gary Dugan, Brent, Saxo, Sterling, bitcoin, Ankur Banerjee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal Reserve, Tokyo's Nikkei, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Federal, Saxo Markets, Dalma, OPEC, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, CBA, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, U.S, Saudi Arabia

☆ Oil prices tick down with OPEC meeting in rear view
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures were down 23 cents, or 0.3%, at $76.48 a barrel at 0020 GMT. The voluntary cut, Saudi Arabia's biggest in years, is on top of a broader deal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia to limit supply into 2024 as OPEC+ seeks to boost flagging oil prices. The OPEC+ pumps around 40% of the world's crude. Market participants are now waiting to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike or hold interest rates in June for more trading cues. Traders pegged the chances of the Fed pausing its interest rate hikes at its June 13-14 meeting at 78%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Brent, Christine Lagarde, Arathy Somasekhar, Himani Sarkar Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, Saudi Arabia's, Organization of, Petroleum, U.S . Federal, Traders, Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, U.S, Russia, OPEC, Vienna, Nigeria, Angola, Houston

☆ The US is in a 'cardboard box recession' that's pointing to a sharp fall in inflation by the end of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US is in a cardboard box recession, Charles Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop said. According to the Fibre Box Association, that's led to a drop in cardboard box demand – an overlooked recession indicator that has preceded previous downturns for the US economy. "The Cardboard Box Recession may be good news for inflation," Kleintop said, pointing to positive inflation trends in Europe. The Fed could pause rate hikes as the inflation situation improves, which commentators have said could be bullish for stocks. The five-year, five-year forward rate, an estimate of the five-year inflation rate five years from now, dropped to 2.23% this week, per Federal Reserve data.

Persons: Charles Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop, Kleintop, —, Charles Schwab, Jeffrey Kleintop, that's Organizations: Service, Fibre, Association, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: Europe

☆ Morning Bid: Nervy markets back on central bank watch
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Pedestrians walk past the Reserve Bank of Australia building in central Sydney, Australia, February 10, 2017. Throwing markets a slight curveball on Tuesday, Australia's central bank raised rates, dashing expectations that they'd stand pat and sending the Aussie dollar higher. For the U.S. rates outlook, CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed standing pat at the June 13-14 meeting is now at 82%. Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong-listed China property stocks surged on hopes that Beijing would roll out supportive measures soon to bolster the embattled sector. The dollar remained on the backfoot after U.S. service sector activity unexpectedly softened, setting the stage for a mixed European open.

Persons: Steven Saphore, Ankur Banerjee, Christine Lagarde, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, bitcoin, Bitcoin, Tim Cook, Sam Holmes Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Ankur, Federal Reserve, ECB, Apple, Meta, Hollywood, Reuters Graphics Reuters, PMI, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Australia's, Asia, Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Japan, U.S, Netherlands, Germany, Singapore

☆ Shares steady on June hike hiatus hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Lawrence White | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) had earlier surged 2.1% to stand above 32,000 for the first time since July 1990. "With Saudi Arabia protecting oil prices from sliding too low ... we think oil markets are now more prone to a shortfall later this year," said Vivek Dhar, a mining and energy commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The greenback also rose 0.1% on the Japanese yen to 140.26 while the euro eased 0.1% to $0.1069. Markets see a sizeable chance - about 40% - that the RBA could surprise with a quarter-point hike on Tuesday, after a minimum wage hike that economists feared could further stoke inflationary pressures. Additional reporting by Stella Qiu, Editing by Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill, Ed Osmond and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Issei Kato, Brent, Vivek Dhar, Fitch, Stella Qiu, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill, Ed Osmond, Chizu Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, LONDON, Federal Reserve, Saudi, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, AAA, U.S, Bank of Canada, Reuters, BOC, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Asia, Pacific, China, U.S, United States, Australia, Canada

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