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In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIBM's numbers prove it's a stable play in macro turmoil, says Evercore's Amit DaryananiAmit Daryanani, Evercore ISI managing director, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss IBM after the company reported earnings today.
UBS upgrades Exxon to buy from neutral UBS said in its upgrade of the oil and gas giant that it likes the company's balance sheet. Bank of America reiterates Meta as buy Bank of America says it likes "self-help stocks in an uncertain macro." Bank of America reiterates Nvidia as buy Bank of America raised its price target on the AI beneficiary to $340 per share from $310. Bank of America downgrades CDW to neutral from buy Bank of America downgraded the technology products company after its disappointing earnings report on Tuesday. Wolfe reiterates Amazon as outperform Wolfe says it's standing by its outperform rating on the stock heading into earnings next week. "
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Good news: The S & P 500 is in a modest uptrend. The S & P 500 is up 7% since bottoming at the height of the banking crisis March 13th. The main focus of volatility, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), hit a 15-month low on Wednesday. "The January 2022 trough in the VIX marks the current all-time high for the S & P 500. Julian Emanuel at Evercore ISI noted that as of Tuesday night, 44 companies in the S & P 500 had reported.
A weekend report from The New York Times said Samsung is thinking of switching its default search engine to Microsoft's Bing. Samsung represents roughly 27% of the smartphone market and has a 60% share of Android phones, according to Barclays. Barclays estimates that Samsung represents about $20 billion of Google's gross revenue and $7.3 billion of operating income. If the cellphone maker were to move away from the search engine, Google may have to recapture 70% of lost queries organically to recoup the lost operating income, the firm found. He thinks Google will remain the search engine heavyweight and successfully integrate Bard to rival Bing's use of ChatGPT.
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Jim Cramer said Tuesday this is traditionally not the kind of call to greet with open arms. J & J decline misguided Investors are wrong to be selling J & J shares after the company's first-quarter earnings report, Jim Cramer said. While J & J topped Wall Street estimates on the top-and-bottom lines, investors may have gotten worried by management's comments about foreign exchange rates weighing on J & J's long-term revenue forecasts. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEvercore's Mark Mahaney is still bullish on Netflix despite 'disappointing' Q1Mark Mahaney, Evercore ISI head of internet research, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss Netflix after the company reports earnings.
The change applies to the S & P Composite 1500 Index and its components, including the S & P 500 , the world's largest stock benchmark and the one with the widest following. It forces buying from every passive index fund manager whose fund tracks the S & P 500, S & P Midcap 400 or Smallcap 600, boosting the stock price in the short term. Evercore ISI is bullish on the prospect for inclusion in the S & P 500. Alternative asset managers Ares Management and Blackstone have also became eligible for S & P 500 inclusion. "Excluding BX from the S & P 500 has hurt the index's performance... and BX also yields a dividend that is ~2x the average S & P 500 company."
This is relevant to Apple as we estimate that Google pays Apple ~$20bn for being the default search engine across iOS devices." Goldman Sachs reiterates Microsoft as buy Goldman says it's staying bullish heading into Microsoft earnings next week. Deutsche Bank reiterates Disney as buy Deutsche Bank says it sees an "attractive setup" heading into earnings in early May. HSBC upgrades Nvidia to buy from reduce HSBC said in its double upgrade of Nvidia that it's "all about AI." Deutsche Bank reiterates Amazon as buy Deutsche says it's standing by its buy rating on the e-commerce giant ahead of earnings later this month.
Estee Lauder (EL), Starbucks (SBUX) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) are the Club's consumer discretionary stocks with the greatest exposure to the Chinese market. Shares of Estee Lauder, Starbucks and Wynn — up roughly 3.5%, 9.2% and 37.5% year-to-date, respectively — edged up on the news Tuesday. For Estee Lauder, a leader in luxury skin care, makeup and fragrances, China accounts for about a third of total revenue. The Club's take China's latest economic data highlights our investment case for our three big consumer companies doing business in the country. However, we're pleased to see a robust rebound in consumer activity in the world's second largest economy, signifying a positive growth outlook for Estee Lauder, Starbucks and Wynn Resorts.
JPMorgan upgrades HP Inc. to overweight from neutral JPMorgan said in its upgrade of HP Inc . that it sees "resilient revenue and margins." JPMorgan upgrades Ollie's to neutral from underweight JPMorgan said it has more confidence in management's same-store sales guide. JPMorgan downgrades Dell to neutral from overweight JPMorgan said in its downgrade of Dell that HP Inc. is better positioned right now. JPMorgan reiterates Amazon as overweight JPMorgan said it came away "incrementally positive" from Amazon's investor letter last week. JMP downgrades Penn to market perform from market outperform JMP downgraded the stock mainly on valuation.
While Friday's close was disappointing, the S & P 500 is an uptrend and is now at its highest level since mid-February. Indeed, the S & P is only 1% from its high for the year, which it hit Feb. 2 at 4,179. The S & P 500 spent much of 2022 below that important indicator, but at 4,137 is now 4.7% above that 200-day moving average. In early January, 74% of the S & P 500 stocks were above their 200-day moving average. Unfortunately, mid- and small-cap stocks are faring even worse, notably underperforming the S & P 500 since the banking crisis.
Tuesday Johnson & Johnson is set to report earnings before the open, followed by a call with management at 8:30 a.m. Goldman Sachs is set to report earnings before the open, followed by a call at 9:30 a.m. What history shows: Bespoke data shows Goldman tops earnings expectations 86% of the time. Netflix is set to report earnings after the bell, followed by a call with management at 6 p.m. Friday Procter & Gamble is set to report earnings before the open, with a conference call also slated for 8:30 a.m.
As concerns about regional banks roiled markets, investors weighed another threat: commercial real estate. Also, layered on top of the property value pressure, are the tightening credit conditions brought on by the recent turmoil in the banking sector. There is no doubt this scenario is a toxic mix for the capital-intensive real estate industry. At the moment, many experts say the real estate market isn't causing trouble for banks, but fears about the financial system are likely worsening conditions in real estate because liquidity is being reduced. The biggest concern is seeing how many other companies join Brookfield , Blackstone and Pimco in handing back the keys on office properties, Clancy said.
Here are Thursday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Goldman Sachs reiterates Netflix as sell Goldman said it's standing by its sell rating heading into earnings next week. Deutsche Bank adds a catalyst call buy on Enphase Energy Deutsche said it's bullish on the solar company's opportunities in Europe. Citi upgrades Merck to buy from neutral Citi said in its upgrade of the pharmaceutical company that it has an underappreciated pipeline of products. Deutsche Bank names a catalyst buy on Sherwin-Williams Deutsche said the paint company's earnings scheduled for later this month should "alleviate" investor concerns. Citi upgrades Steven Madden to buy from neutral Citi said in its upgrade of the shoe company that it sees "better wholesale trends" for Steven Madden.
Evercore ISI is gearing up for first-quarter tech earnings by making short-term, bullish calls and a tactical bearish recommendation. Well-known technology analyst Mark Mahaney said underperformance in first quarter earnings is less likely given the negative revisions already seen across the tech sector in recent quarters. 1-ranked analyst for five years, named two two of his favorite tech names going into first quarter earnings, and one stock to bet against. Wall Street's consensus for Meta's first-quarter revenue is reasonable while the second quarter's is beatable, Mahaney argued. While industry checks were in line with forecasts through the beginning of March, demand appears to have cooled later in the quarter, Mahaney said.
Evercore says that concerns about inflation and financial stability will still drive stocks. Inflation continues to fade, which means it's much more likely that the Fed's rate hiking campaign is coming to an end. Emanuel says investors should apply that strategy using both the S&P 500 and QQQ, the popular ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 index. So, in essence, his advice is that investors should position for the index to give up its gains, and buy support that would protect them at the 3,800 level. The idea is that investors can protect themselves against the S&P 500 falling through the 3,800 and 3,575 levels with puts.
Watch CNBC's full interview with Evercore ISI's Ed Hyman
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Evercore ISI's Ed HymanEd Hyman, Evercore ISI chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Hyman's thoughts on a potential recession, if the Federal Reserve still has work to do and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEvercore's Hyman: Fed's already make a mistake by tightening too muchEd Hyman, Evercore ISI chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Hyman's thoughts on a potential recession, if the Federal Reserve still has work to do and more.
NVDA AMD YTD mountain Nvidia vs. AMD year to date So, the question now is: Can the rally in semis continue? To help us read the tea leaves, here's a look at what Wall Street analysts are saying about the underlying fundamentals of the industry. Evercore said a "fundamental bottom" for the semiconductor industry currently playing out in March and April "has only strengthened" recently. Analysts there believe the inventory correction that's plagued the industry in recent quarters will be largely complete by the second quarter. Bottom line While there's some variation on timing, Wall Street clearly believes a bottom is in the process of playing out in the semiconductor industry.
Signage outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US on Thursday, March 23, 2023. Wall Street futures were little changed on Wednesday evening, as investors weighed recession risk following the latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were 60 points lower, or 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched down 0.1%. The CPI advanced 0.1% month over month in March, and 5% from the prior year. Traders' sentiment turned in the afternoon following the release of minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
The Federal Reserve should halt its interest rate hiking campaign because the U.S. economy is already poised for a recession, said economist Ed Hyman, chairman of Evercore ISI. Hyman said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" that he was in the "recession camp," but did not expect a sharp downturn. Hyman specifically pointed to an inverted yield curve and contracting money supply as signs that a recession is likely on the horizon. The central bank implemented a quarter-percentage point rate hike at its March meeting, marking its ninth straight rate increase . As for the future of the economy, Hyman said he's "seen enough" to make his prediction for a recession: "I know where this boat is going."
Morgan Stanley names UnitedHealth a top pick Morgan Stanley says the healthcare company is best positioned in a recession. Morgan Stanley reiterates Netflix as equal weight Morgan Stanley said Netflix is the "streaming winner" but that it's "priced as such." Morgan Stanley downgrades Nasdaq to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley said that it has growth concerns for the exchange operator. JPMorgan upgrades Federated Hermes to overweight from underweight JPMorgan said the rate environment makes the capital market company's stock more attractive. Morgan Stanley upgrades AstraZeneca to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said the pharmaceutical company is "leading the race" to outsmart cancer.
But overall bank credit has been stalled at about $17.5 trillion since January. The response - less lending, tighter credit standards and higher interest on loans - was already taking shape. Hard data on bank lending and credit will come into play, augmenting topline statistics like unemployment and inflation that the Fed is focused on. Reuters GraphicsSENTIMENT WEAKENINGThe survey of large and small banks asks high-level questions - Are lending standards tighter or looser? A Dallas Fed bank conditions survey, conducted in late March after the two bank failures, indicated lending standards in that Fed regional bank's district have kept tightening, with loan demand falling.
Micron Technology — Micron Technology's shares gained 8% after its rival Samsung Electronics announced that it plans to cut memory chip production in the near term. Excelerate Energy , EQT and other gas stocks — Shares of Excelerate Energy, EQT and other gas stocks ticked higher as natural gas futures climbed. Apple's stock price lost 2%, Google-parent Alphabet shed 2.8% and Microsoft lost 1.4%. New Fortress Energy — The stock gained 4% after Deutsche Bank initiated New Fortress as a buy. AMC's stock price popped 6.7%, IMAX soared by 2% and Cinemark gained 5.7%.
There may not be a recession yet, but there is certainly an earnings recession. What Treasury yields are saying Treasury yields resumed falling last week in response to the weaker data. Earnings season Speaking of earnings, first quarter earnings season start this week, with earnings for the S & P 500 expected to decline 5.2%, according to Refinitiv. That's an earnings recession. You have to go back to Q1-Q3 of 2020 to see three consecutive quarters of earnings decline.
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