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Geopolitics could drive oil prices over $100, Citi says
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Oil prices could rise to $100 a barrel in the short term thanks to the latest developments out of Saudi Arabia and Russia, according to Citi. That pushed U.S. crude oil prices top $90 a barrel for the first time since November 2022. "Geopolitics could push oil over $100 for a short while," Edward Morse, Citi's global head of commodities, said in a note Monday morning. "The Saudi appetite to withhold oil from market, supported by Russia maintaining a certain level of export constraint, points to higher prices in the short term." However, he also noted that higher near-term prices could mean more downside next year, and that the current $90 level prices look "unsustainable" with faster supply growth than demand.
Persons: Brent, Edward Morse, Morse, CNBC's Michael Bloom, Yun Li Organizations: Citi, West, Consumer Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, West Texas, Saudi, China
Gas prices hit 2023 highs as oil stays hot
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —Prices at the pump climbed to their highest level of the year on Monday as oil prices push past $92 a barrel. Normally, gas prices cool off after the summer driving season ends on Labor Day. But the opposite has happened this year as Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s aggressive supply cuts lift oil prices. In a negative signal for gas prices, the oil market continues to set new highs. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday told CNBC she expects energy prices will “stabilize” and noted gas prices are off their highs from last summer.
Persons: Brent, Janet Yellen, Biden, Yellen, ” Yellen Organizations: New, New York CNN, Labor, AAA, Federal Reserve, White, Monday, CNBC, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Locations: New York, Saudi, Colorado , Oregon, Arizona, California, Libya
Sept 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The main exception appears to be oil, which continues to forge new peaks for the year in a steady march towards $100 a barrel. Could the oil price spike feature in the raft of central bank policy decisions and outlooks this week? In Asia, that would be the central bank meetings in Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia on Thursday, and Japan on Friday. Tuesday's Asian and Pacific economic calendar is pretty light, with the Reserve Bank of Australia's last policy meeting minutes the main event.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Brent, South Korea's, Deepa Babington Organizations: U.S . Federal, Treasury, Bank of, South, U.S ., Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S ., Friday's, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Bank of Japan, India's, Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Malaysian, Malaysia
Japan's yen in spotlight ahead of 'live' BOJ meeting
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
In a week packed with central bank meetings, decisions are also due from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and Bank of England on Thursday. The yen was flat versus the greenback at 147.82 per dollar with markets in Japan closed for a national holiday. Carol Kong, economist and currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said she expects the yen to be volatile leading up to the policy meeting. "So that means dollar yen can track higher, particularly if Governor Ueda sounds dovish and dashes hopes of policy tightening at the upcoming meeting," she said. The European Central Bank raised interest rates to 4% last week but said this hike could be its last.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Carol Kong, Kong, Ueda, Sterling Organizations: U.S ., The, of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, Japan, . U.S, Treasury, Deutsche Bank Research, Brent, Saudi Locations: Asia, Japan, ., U.S, Ukraine
Oil inches higher on supply concerns, China demand recovery
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Two large oil tankers unload at the 300,000-ton crude oil terminal in Yantai Port, Shandong Province, China, July 9, 2023. Oil prices inched higher on Monday, buoyed by forecasts of a widening supply deficit in the fourth quarter after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended cuts and on optimism of a demand recovery in China, the world's top crude importer. Traders will be watching decisions by central banks, including the Federal Reserve, this week on interest rate policies. "The Fed is expected to pause rate hikes this time but is likely to stay hawkish," CMC's Teng said. A pause in U.S. rate hikes could weaken the greenback which makes dollar-denominated commodities such as oil more affordable for holders of other currencies.
Persons: Tina Teng, WTI, CMC's Teng Organizations: Brent, West Texas, CMC, ANZ, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, Traders, Federal Reserve Locations: Yantai Port, Shandong Province, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Ukraine
Shares fell Monday in Asia, with Hong Kong's benchmark pulled lower by property stocks following reports that police had detained staff at the wealth management business of troubled real estate developer China Evergrande. U.S. futures edged higher and oil prices advanced. Political Cartoons View All 1163 ImagesEvergrande's Hong Kong traded shares were up 1.6% after plunging early in the session. The market had posted some gains last week following reports of several healthy economic indicators ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, which ends Wednesday. Oil prices have been climbing over the summer after Saudi Arabia decided to maintain production cuts.
Persons: Australia's, Brent Organizations: Hong Kong, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, U.S, United Auto Workers, Ford, Motors, Stellantis, Milan Stock Exchange, Traders, New York Mercantile Exchange Locations: Asia, China, ., Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hong, Seoul, Italy, Saudi Arabia
Oil Prices Head Toward Fresh High
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Oil prices continue to grind higher , putting global benchmark Brent crude on track for its highest closing level in almost a year. Most-active futures contracts rose 0.5% Monday to $94.41 a barrel. Supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia have helped spur a 25% rise in crude prices in the third quarter. The advance has led to higher fuel bills and complicated the Federal Reserve's task of bringing down inflation. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold Wednesday while leaving open the possibility of further hikes.
Organizations: Brent Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia
Moderna — The pharmaceutical company lost more than 8% Monday, making it the biggest decliner in the S&P 500. Enphase Energy — Shares lost 2.6% after Citi lowered its price target on shares to $170 from $209 while keeping its buy rating. The new price target implies 41% upside from Friday's close. Analyst Chris Quintero highlighted the growth opportunity for the company following a strong investment cycle. The investment bank bumped up the stock's price target to $40 from $37, citing Simply Good Foods' diverse product offering and shifting consumer preferences to healthier choices as catalysts.
Persons: Bernstein, Needham, Noubar Afeyan, Moderna's, Goldman Sachs, Mark Delaney, PayP, Ralph Lauren —, Ralph Lauren's, TD Cowen, Cowen, Tenable, Morgan Stanley, Chris Quintero, Raymond James, ASGN, Wells Fargo, , Alex Harring, Brian Evans, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Pia Singh, Michelle Fox Organizations: — Petroleum refiners Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum, West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Energy, Arm, Nasdaq, Securities and Exchange Commission, Pharmaceutical, Pfizer, U.S, Tesla, PayPal, MoffetNathanson, Guggenheim, Enphase Energy, Citi, Tenable Holdings, Mizuho, Aldi, Lowe's, Micron Technology, Deutsche Bank, Paramount, Disney, Warner Bros Discovery, Iridium Communications, Iridium Locations: Valero Houston, Houston , Texas, U.S
This was reversed in August as strong crude imports and steady domestic output outweighed the record refinery processing rates. This was up 19.6% from the same month in 2022 and also stronger than July's 14.87 million bpd. Crude imports were 12.43 million bpd in August, the third-highest daily rate on record and up 20.9% from July and 30.9% from August last year. Subtracting processing of 15.23 million bpd leaves a surplus of 1.32 million bpd that flowed into storage tanks. The question is how will China's refiners respond to the higher crude oil prices?
Persons: shouldn't, China doesn't, China's, refiners, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Brent, Saudi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, OPEC, pare, Iran, Russia, Venezuela
TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly higher Friday after China reported that its slowing economy showed signs of stabilizing in August. That is seen as a sign the economy may be breaking out of its post-pandemic malaise. “The Arm IPO optimism and China’s further stimulus measures boosted sentiment across Asian stock markets,” Tina Teng, a markets analyst at CMC Markets APAC & Canada, said in a commentary. A third report said prices getting paid at the wholesale level rose more last month than economists expected. Ignoring those and other particularly volatile prices, underlying inflation trends in Thursday’s report were closer to economists’ expectations.
Persons: Hang Seng, , Australia's, Tina Teng, they’re, Mike Loewengart, Organizations: TOKYO, China, People's Bank of, Nikkei, SoftBank Group Corp, Arm Holdings, Nasdaq, CMC, Dow Jones Industrial, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, CME Group, Morgan Stanley Global Investment, Brent, U.S . Locations: Shanghai, People's Bank of China, Tokyo, Canada, U.S
Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) added 1.2%, and mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) rose 0.2%, flipping from early small losses. The overall improving economic outlook bolstered the Chinese yuan, which gained about 0.3% to 7.2709 per dollar in offshore markets . Australia's dollar , which often trades as a proxy for the country's top trading partner, rose 0.3% to $0.6460. The so-called U.S. dollar index edged down 0.08% to 105.33, after hitting the highest since early March at 105.43 on Thursday. The dollar index is on track for a ninth straight weekly advance, the longest run in nine years.
Persons: Issei Kato, Moody's, It's, Kyle Rodda, Tony Sycamore, Jerome, Sycamore, Brent, Kevin Buckland, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, U.S, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, ECB, IG, U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, U.S
Oil rigs are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday and are set for a third weekly gain, as better-than-expected Chinese economic data and reports of record oil consumption bolstered the view that demand in the world's second-largest crude consumer will continue to surge. Brent crude futures rose 62 cents, or 0.7%, to $94.32 as of 0249 GMT, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 71 cents, or 0.8%, at $90.87. China's industrial output and retail sales grew at a faster-than-expected rate in August, suggesting that the recovery of the world's second-largest economy from the COVID-19 pandemic is stabilising. The International Energy Agency said this week it expects Saudi Arabia's and Russia's extended oil output cuts to result in a market deficit through the fourth quarter.
Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Edward Moya, Brent, WTI, Sudarshan Varadhan, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Brent, U.S . West Texas, National, International Energy Agency, Saudi, Thomson Locations: Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, OANDA, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia
In an aerial view, oil storage tanks are shown at the Enterprise Sealy Station on August 28, 2023 in Sealy, Texas. Oil prices climbed to their highest level of the year this week, extending a rally that has put a return to $100 a barrel sharply into focus. Indeed, some analysts believe crude prices could hit this milestone before year-end. Analysts at Bank of America have indicated they now believe oil prices could soon spike beyond triple digits. "Should OPEC+ maintain the ongoing supply cuts through year-end against Asia's positive demand backdrop, we now believe Brent prices could spike past $100/bbl before 2024," analysts led by Francisco Blanch said Tuesday in a research note.
Persons: Brent, WTI, Francisco Blanch Organizations: Enterprise, Brent, . West Texas Intermediate, Saudi, Bank of America, bbl Locations: Sealy , Texas, London, Saudi Arabia, Russia
Oil prices rise to 10 month-high on China reserve ratio cut
  + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Oil prices rose to their highest level in 10 months on Friday, after China cut banks' cash reserve requirements to boost its economic recovery, and on expectations that major global interest rate hike cycles were nearing their end. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. No one is doubting the OPEC+ (oil-producing nations) decision at the end of last month will keep the oil market very tight in the fourth quarter," said analyst Edward Moya at OANDA. The International Energy Agency said this week it expects Saudi Arabia's and Russia's extended oil output cuts to result in a market deficit through the fourth quarter. Prices briefly pulled back on a bearish U.S. inventories report, but soon resumed their ascent as supply worries prevailed.
Persons: Brent, Tina Teng, Edward Moya Organizations: U.S . West Texas, CMC, International Energy Agency, Saudi Locations: China, U.S, OANDA
The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.6%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted slim declines for the week, while the Dow eked out a small gain. The Nasdaq Composite led indexes lower with a 1.6% decline. The S&P 500 was down 1.2% and the Dow industrials fell 0.8%, or nearly 300 points. Adobe shares were among the biggest losers in the S&P 500 after earnings disappointed investors.
Persons: Stocks, Dow industrials, Oil, Brent Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Tech, Adobe, Treasury
Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Edge Up; Arm Rallies Premarket
  + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Shares of chip designer Arm continued to rise in offhours trading , last up 7% after jumping 25% in its stock-market debut Thursday. Stock futures edged up as Chinese data pointed to stronger-than-expected economic activity and investors awaited U.S. consumer-sentiment data. The Chinese central bank cut a short-term lending rate, in another move to support the country’s recovery. Contracts linked to the S&P 500 and the Dow rose crept higher, while Nasdaq-100 futures were flat. German and Italian 10-year yields rose—in a reversal of Thursday's reaction to the European Central Bank's interest-rate hike, according to Joost van Leenders, investment strategist at Van Lanschot Kempen.
Persons: Seng, Oil, Joost van Leenders, Van Lanschot Organizations: Nasdaq, Nikkei, Brent, Treasury Locations: China, U.S, Europe, Michigan
Brent crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $92.24 a barrel at 0300 GMT. Elsewhere, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday retained its forecasts for robust growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024. "The oil market looks decidedly tight over the next two to three quarters as supply constraints persist amid robust demand," said analysts at ANZ Research. U.S. crude inventories rose by 4 million barrels last week, confounding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.9 million-barrel drop. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.
Persons: Priyanka Sachdeva, Phillip Nova, refiners, buoying, Arathy Somasekhar, Leslie Adler Organizations: Kyodo, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Brent, . West Texas, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ Research, Reserve, Thomson Locations: Idemitsu, Ichihara, Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Saudi Arabia, Houston, Singapore
Fed funds futures hardly budged on the inflation data, and imply nearly no chance of a rate hike next week, and about a 45% chance of another hike by year's end. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 0.1% and futures rose 0.2% in Asia. European futures were flat. The euro has been supported this week by creeping expectations for the European Central Bank to hike rates on Thursday, though analysts say it may struggle for further gains. The New Zealand dollar was also firmer at $0.5941, while the dollar slipped about 0.2% to buy 147.11 yen .
Persons: Androniki, Glenn Yin, HSI, Brent Donnelly, it's, Kazuo Ueda, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Rights, European Central Bank, Tokyo's Nikkei, Treasury, ., New, AETOS Capital Group, Arm Holdings, EU, Spectra Markets, New Zealand, Bank of Japan, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, New York, Melbourne, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Australia
Stocks finished Thursday higher, with the Dow rising more than 300 points, after investors shrugged off a slate of hot economic data. Thursday's producer inflation and retail sales reports —along with the CPI yesterday—showed gas prices are driving much of the latest inflationary pulses. The S&P 500, Dow industrials and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite all rose after a modest performance Wednesday. Bond yields rose as prices fell, pricing in a tad of the hotter-than-expected economic data. Eurozone bond yields and the euro currency fell after the ECB raised rates.
Persons: Stocks, shrugged, Dow Organizations: Dow, CPI, Federal, Overseas, European Central Bank, Officials, Nasdaq, Brent, International Energy Agency, Cruise Lines, ECB Locations: British
AMC Entertainment — Shares of the movie theater chain jumped 5% in premarket trading after AMC said it had completed the equity offering it announced earlier this month. The company said it sold 40 million shares at an average price of $8.14, raising about $325.5 million. In the second quarter, the company earned 11 cents a share, after adjustments, exceeding analysts' expectations of 2 cents per share, according to FactSet. Penn Entertainment — The sports betting stock climbed 3% in premarket trading following a short-term buy call from Deutsche Bank. The conglomerate sold about 5.5 million shares of HP, worth around $158 million.
Persons: Wolfe, Semtech, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Shawn Fain, Jim Farley, — CNBC's Michelle Fox, Alex Harring, Yun Li, Tanaya Macheel, Jesse Pound, Pia Singh Organizations: AMC, Wolfe Research, Penn Entertainment, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Brent, Occidental Petroleum, HP —, HP, Berkshire, General Motors, Ford —, United Auto Workers, Ford Locations: China, Devon, Omaha
An attendant at a fuel station arranges Indian rupee notes in Kolkata, India, August 16, 2018. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open around the same level as its previous close of 82.9850. The dollar index was at 104.78, roughly at the same level it was prior to the U.S. inflation data. U.S. Treasury yields jumped following the data, but retreated and are now at levels lower than before the inflation reading. FEDWATCHANZ said that the August inflation was not sufficient to prompt a re-pricing in Fed expectations.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Nimesh Vora, Mrigank Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, U.S . Federal, FEDWATCH ANZ, ANZ, European Central Bank, Brent, Thomson Locations: Kolkata, India, Rights MUMBAI, U.S, Asia
Oil hits 2023 highs on tight supply outlook
  + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The tightening oil balance will remain the dominant price driver for the rest of 2023, he added. Both benchmarks had slipped on Wednesday after a U.S. supply report showing rising crude and refined product stocks. Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said supply fears are underpinning oil prices as producers "adamantly stick to restricted production". A day before the IEA report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued updated forecasts of solid demand and also pointed to a 2023 supply deficit if production cuts are maintained. "The oil market looks decidedly tight over the next two to three quarters as supply constraints persist amid robust demand," ANZ Research analysts said.
Persons: Tamas Varga, Brent, Priyanka Sachdeva, Phillip Nova Organizations: Oil, Brent, International Energy Agency, . West Texas, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ Research, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB Locations: Cromarty Firth, Invergordon, Scotland, Saudi Arabia, U.S
By raising interest rates, the Fed "wants us to buy fewer cars. There are signs that a drop in savings could be making it harder for Americans' to keep up with paying off debt. Long-term interest rates rising for non-economic reasonsLong-term interest rates are on the rise, even though economic data on the whole is improving. Higher-interest payments for the US governmentSløk also noted higher interest payments for the US government as another downside risk to the outlook. Projections published by the Congressional Budget Office show increasing estimates for the upcoming decades for federal interest payments as a share of GDP.
Persons: Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Paul Krugman, Persis Yu, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, it's, , you've, Andy Kiersz, That's, Brent Organizations: Service, Apollo Global Management, NYU Stern School of Business, Federal Reserve, San, San Francisco Fed, Student, Protection, CNBC, New York Fed, Banking, West Texas, Labor Statistics, US, Fitch, Congressional Locations: Wall, Silicon, San Francisco, China, Japan, Europe, Germany
New York CNN —US oil prices climbed above $90 a barrel on Thursday for the first time in 10 months, threatening to push gasoline prices even higher and heat up inflation across the economy. High oil prices have already created an unusual situation where gasoline is getting more expensive even after the summer driving season has ended. The latest oil market rally has been driven by concerns about supply. The recent jump in energy prices is undoing some of the progress made by central banks in the fight against inflation. A pair of inflation reports released this week showed prices rose by more than expected in August, in large part because of rising gas prices.
Persons: , Andy Lipow, Lipow, Brent Organizations: New, New York CNN, AAA, Lipow Oil Associates, Energy Locations: New York, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Libya, Europe, Texas , New Mexico, United States, Colorado , North Dakota, California
That’s discouraging for shoppers paying higher prices, but much of the acceleration was because of higher fuel costs. The inflation report was so highly anticipated because it will help steer what the Federal Reserve does next on interest rates. Even though economists are willing to ignore fuel costs when looking at inflation to find the underlying trends, households and companies don’t get the same luxury. American Airlines cut its forecast for profits during the summer because fuel costs are running higher than it expected. Spirit Airlines said it’s also paying higher fuel costs this summer than expected, roughly $3.06 per gallon instead of the $2.80 it had earlier forecast.
Persons: don’t, it’s, It’s, Brent Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Fed, American Airlines, Spirit Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Microsoft, Nvidia, Moderna, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S Locations: Asia, Seoul, Hong, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Australia, U.S
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