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"We will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data," Powell said in a keynote address to the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. "It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so. The Fed has raised rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022, and inflation by the Fed's preferred gauge has moved down to 3.3% from its peak of 7% last summer. Although the decline was a "welcome development," Powell said, inflation "remains too high." Fed policymakers will also meet in November and December.
Persons: JACKSON, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Elizabeth Frantz, “ Powell, Michael Arone, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Lewis Krauskopf, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve, Committee, REUTERS, Fed, State Street Global Advisors, Cleveland Fed, Chicago Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, U.S, Washington , U.S
FILE PHOTO-European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsJACKSON HOLE, Wyoming, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Profound changes in how the global economy operates, from increased protectionism to energy transition, could create greater inflation volatility and more persistent price pressures, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Friday. Higher investment needs and greater supply constraints are likely to lead to stronger price pressures and not all sectors will be able to absorb these, she warned. "We will have to be extremely attentive that greater volatility in relative prices does not creep into medium-term inflation through wages repeatedly “chasing” prices," Lagarde said. "That could make inflation more persistent if expected wage increases are then incorporated into the pricing decisions of firms, giving rise to what I have called 'tit-for-tat' inflation."
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, JACKSON, Lagarde, Balazs Koranyi, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Rate hike odds build as Fed's Powell gets set to speak
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Aug 25 (Reuters) - As investors wait anxiously for any hint of guidance on the interest rate outlook from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, they have been increasingly positioning for the central bank to deliver another interest rate hike by year end. Powell is set to deliver the keynote speech on Friday morning at the annual economic symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Fed has jacked up its policy rate from near zero in March 2022 to the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%, but unemployment remains at a historically low 3.5% and overall economic growth has defied expectations that it would falter. Alongside the rise in bond yields, rate futures have notably repriced as well. Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Dan Burns, Chizu Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Fed, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, pledged during a closely watched speech that his central bank would stick by its push to stamp out rapid inflation “until the job is done” and said that officials stood ready to raise interest rates further if needed. Mr. Powell, who was speaking Friday at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming, said that the Fed would “proceed carefully” as it decided whether to make further policy adjustments after a year and a half in which it had pushed interest rates up sharply. But even as Mr. Powell emphasized that the Fed is trying to balance the risk of doing too much and hurting the economy more than is necessary against the risk of doing too little, he was careful not to take a victory lap around a recent slowing in inflation. His speech hammered home one main point: Officials want to see more progress to convince them that they are truly bringing price increases under control. “The message is the same: It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so,” Mr. Powell said, comparing his speech to a stern set of remarks he delivered at last year’s Jackson Hole gathering.
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Jackson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of, Jackson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Wyoming
During the heyday of the "great resignation," workers could expect to see a 20% pay bump from changing jobs. Now, as the job market cools and companies become more cautious with hiring, the big signing bonuses and high salaries new hires once enjoyed are dwindling. Nearly half of the 2,000 employers surveyed by ZipRecruiter in July said they had reduced pay for recent job openings. As businesses cut new hires' salaries, however, jobseekers' wage expectations have hit record highs, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Monday. I've just accepted that I might have less negotiating power than I did two years ago."
Persons: they'd, Matt Dalrymple, he's, Dalrymple, Everyone's, I've Organizations: ZipRecruiter, Federal Reserve Bank of New, CNBC Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New Jersey, New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market has reacted to Powell's comments neutrally, says former Dallas Fed President FisherRichard Fisher, Barclay's senior advisor and former U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss the market reaction to Powell's Jackson Hole remarks, Fed Chair Powell's professional expertise, and the economy's strength.
Persons: Fisher Richard Fisher, Barclay's, Powell's Jackson Organizations: Dallas Fed, U.S . Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Profit-taking weighed on shares across the board, with the MSCI All Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) down 0.36%. Profit-taking also took hold in Europe, where European stocks (.STOXX) gave up earlier gains to edge down 0.37%. EASING YIELDSGovernment bond yields eased, adding to a sense of relief across markets. In currency markets, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies , added 0.474%, and remains higher over the month.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Harker, Robert Alster, Zhang Zihua, Koh Gui Qing, Tom Wilson, Julie Zhu, Kirsten Donovan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Investors, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, CNBC, Profit, Asset Management, Nvidia, Beijing Yunyi Asset Management, Brent, . West Texas, Hong, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Europe, Turkish, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Beijing, New York, London, Hong Kong
[1/2] Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stands behind the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, where the Kansas City Fed holds its annual economic symposium, in Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said Thursday the central bank may be in a place where it doesn't need to raise rates again, while keeping open the option for more action. "We may be near, we could even be at a place where we would hold" and not raise rates further, Collins said in an interview on Yahoo Finance's video channel. Collins spoke on the sidelines of the Kansas City Fed's annual research conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Reporting by Michael S. DerbyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Susan Collins, Ann Saphir, Collins, Michael S Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Kansas City Fed, REUTERS, Yahoo, Kansas City, Market Committee, Derby, Thomson Locations: Jackson, Wyoming, U.S, Kansas
Harker spoke to the television channel on the sidelines of the Kansas City Fed’s annual research conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But for Harker, it's very much a question of the economy working through the ongoing impact of the Fed's prior actions. We need to absorb that,'" the bank president said of his local contacts. He expects the unemployment rate to rise a touch to 4% or maybe higher and he believes growth should moderate. Harker also said it's too soon to say when the Fed might cut interest rates.
Persons: Patrick Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Ann Saphir, CNBC he's, Harker, let's, Jerome Powell, it's, you've, I'd, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, Kansas, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, CNBC, Kansas City, Fed, Market, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Kansas
Economists? They have Jackson Hole. The world’s most exclusive economic get-together takes place this week in the valley at the base of the Teton mountains, in a lodge that is a scenic 34 miles from Jackson, Wyo. But even more critically, Jackson Hole tends to generate big news. Jerome H. Powell, the current Fed head, has made headlines with each and every one of his Jackson Hole speeches, which has investors waiting anxiously for this year’s.
Persons: Jackson, Rockefeller, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Cannes, Wall Street, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas Locations: Davos, Jackson, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
When Jerome H. Powell spoke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., last year, inflation had recently topped 9 percent and the Fed was raising rates at a breakneck pace to wrestle down price increases. Mr. Powell used the platform to offer a stern warning that central bankers would keep at it until the job was done. Higher rates have cooled the housing market and, together with healing supply chains and cheaper gas prices, lowered inflation notably — to 3.2 percent in July. Instead of warning that the central bank is prepared to push the economy into a recession if that is necessary to calm rapid inflation, Fed officials today are increasingly suggesting that they might pull off what once seemed unlikely: cooling the economy without tanking it. But many economists and investors think that he may be able to strike a slightly less aggressive tone than he did last year.
Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Jackson
The great remote work debateAs part of the war over remote work, employers and employees alike have debated whether or not a mandatory return-to-office policy actually works. With two kids at home, the flexibility of remote work — coupled with no commute — was a boon. The firms that are succeeding at remote work have saved money from giving up office leases and are making their employees feel happier along the way. "You're still in meetings, you're still engaged, but you're not under the thumb of somebody — not treated like a child." Have you quit over remote work, or are contemplating it?
Persons: Timothy Done, I've, you've, Sam Eitzen, Nicholas Bloom, Bloom, It's, Done, it's Organizations: Service, Workers, Stanford University, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Manufacturing Survey, Business, Survey, Microsoft, jkaplan Locations: Wall, Silicon, Egypt, Denver, Utah, It's, micromanagement
A customer looks at products marked with discounted prices on display at a chemist in a shopping mall in central Sydney, Australia, July 25, 2018. "Inflation, while slowing, has hurt Australians more during the past 18 months than it has for three decades," National Australia Bank (NAB) CEO Ross McEwan said in a speech at the Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce. "There is a lot of discussion as to whether Australia will head into a recession as we do have many headwinds. NAB and the three other large lenders which dominate Australia's A$2 trillion ($1.3 trillion) mortgage market have recorded only modest increases in late repayments as unemployment remains near record lows. Immigration to Australia has returned to levels similar to before COVID-19 prompted global border closures, leading to a shortage of housing and underpinning prices.
Persons: David Gray, Ross McEwan, McEwan, Byron Kaye, Himani Sarkar Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Australia Bank, NAB, Israel Chamber of Commerce, Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Israel, COVID, Lincoln
Remote workers say their connection to their company and its mission feels increasingly "gig-like," Gallup finds. According to a new Gallup survey, a record low 28% of remote workers felt their company's mission made them feel their job is important, down from 32% last year and 37% in 2020. Remote workers are also on the whole feeling less loyal, which could impact employee retention and productivity. For some companies, remote work fits since employers trust their workers to get the job done. Hybrid and fully remote workers did not have improvements in engagement, though 38% of both groups still report feeling engaged.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, what's, Organizations: Gallup, Service, Meta, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Manufacturing Survey, Business Locations: Wall, Silicon, India
In the last year, credit card debt spiked to a record high, while the personal savings rate fell. But revolving debt, which mostly includes credit card balances, contracted in June, according to the Fed's G.19 consumer credit report released earlier this month. After a strong start to the year, credit and debit card spending started to slow in the spring, Bank of America's most recent consumer checkpoint found. Already, the average credit card rate is more than 20%, an all-time high. 'A consumer spending slowdown is inevitable'
Persons: Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz, Matt Shay, Shay Organizations: National Retail Federation, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bank of, Amazon Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York building is seen in the Manhattan borough of New York, U.S., December 16, 2017. BSJI said it had improved compliance during a previous 22-month suspension of its master account between 2019 and 2020. In court papers on Wednesday, the New York Fed said BSJI processed transactions that had "multiple red flags for money laundering or other illicit activity." The New York Fed also said BSJI could still seek to access the U.S. financial system through a third-party correspondent bank. In 2019, the New York Fed said it would stop approving master accounts for some Puerto Rican banks because of U.S. sanctions aimed at ousting Venezuela's socialist President Nicolas Maduro, Reuters reported at the time.
Persons: Eduardo Munoz, BSJI, Marcelino Bellosta, Nicolas Maduro, Luc Cohen, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Banco San Juan Internacional, New York Fed, Venezuela's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Manhattan, New York, U.S, Puerto Rican, Venezuela, Curacao, Venezuelan, United States, Europe
A man walks past the new logo of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, India, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBENGALURU, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Indian shares opened marginally higher on Wednesday amid muted global market moves, with traders awaiting the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting minutes and a key global central bankers' gathering. The Nifty 50 (.NSEI) index was up 0.10% at 19,414.20 at 9:15 a.m. IST, while the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) rose 0.09% to 65,278.01. Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H KOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Bharath Rajeswaran, Varun Organizations: Bombay Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of, BSE, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Bengaluru
"It may just be lucky that a global demand slump or non-policy related domestic forces are driving inflation lower." This disconnect led the German central bank to issue a warning to peers this week that a tough task may still lie ahead for policymakers. "The impression took hold that inflation rates will nonetheless persist for longer above the rates targeted by central banks," the Bundesbank said. Indeed, longer-term inflation expectations for the U.S. and the euro zone remain above the banks' 2% targets. But even in the best case, weaker growth will reduce demand for imports and complicate the global outlook.
Persons: JACKSON, Steve Englander, Piet Haines Christiansen, Philip Lane, Lane, Niels Graham, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Balazs Koranyi, Dan Burns, Toby Chopra Organizations: Standard Chartered, The Bank of England, ECB, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New, Danske Bank, U.S, People's Bank of, Atlantic Council, Capital Economic, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, German, Europe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Jackson, People's Bank of China, China
Chinese business owners and consumers told The New York Times they're concerned about the economy. China is dealing with declines in manufacturing and trade as well as record-high youth unemployment. Larry Summers said last week China's economic proespects had been "greatly exaggerated" in the past. Summers said China's economic prospects, previously considered very good, had been "greatly exaggerated," and that he think the US gross domestic product "will exceed China's for another generation." The Times reported consumers and business owners in China were worried because they could not see how the economic downturn would end.
Persons: Larry Summers, proespects, Li Yuan, Richard Li, Summers, Insider's Cork Gaines, Andy Wang, Xi Jinping, Wang Organizations: New York Times, Service, The New York Times, Times, US, Washington Post, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Washington, Mexico, Austria
Mexico overtook Canada as the US' top trading partner at the start of 2023. US trade with China has been edging lower since 2018, except for a spike during the pandemic. Mexico became US' top trading partner at the start of 2023US's trade with major partners as percentage of total US trade. Canada was the US' top trading partner since at least 2000 before being overtaken by China in 2014. "Mexico's expanding manufacturing base has offered an alternative to producing in China," Torres wrote in the note.
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, China wasn't, Luis Torres, Torres, Hisense Organizations: Service, Privacy, Census Bureau, East, Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Trump, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, China Locations: Mexico, Canada, China, Wall, Silicon, US, Washington, Beijing
High food prices put populism on India’s table
  + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Prices of tomatoes, onions, potatoes, pulses and spices – all the basic ingredients - are soaring as the world’s most populous country heads towards key state polls later this year and national ones soon after. It increases the temptation for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party to indulge in some fiscal populism. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsA surge in food prices drove annual retail inflation to 7.44% in July, the most in 15 months. Elections will be held this year in five of India’s 28 states, including heavyweight constituencies Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. India banned the export of non-basmati rice on July 20 to clamp down on rising domestic prices of the grain.
Persons: Narendra Modi’s, Modi, Nirmala Sitharaman, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Bharatiya Janata Party, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Madhya, Bloomberg, India’s, IDBI, India’s Ministry of Finance, Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Nepal, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, New Delhi, India
A customer hands Indian currency notes to an attendant at a fuel station in Mumbai, India, August 13, 2018. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsMUMBAI, Aug 22 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open little changed on Tuesday on the back of a recovery in the Chinese yuan and other Asian currencies despite a further rise in U.S. yields. Asian currencies managed a recovery on Tuesday, despite the U.S. Treasury yields. The offshore yuan was back below 7.30 to the dollar on bets of tightening up of offshore yuan liquidity. China's major state-owned banks were seen actively mopping up the offshore yuan on Monday.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Nimesh Vora, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of, Treasury, Federal Reserve, ING Bank, ING, U.S, Brent, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Reserve Bank of India
A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is seen inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, April 6, 2023. India's trade deficit with the UAE was $21.62 billion in 2022/23, or 8.2% of its total deficit, government data shows. An RBI official communicated this message verbally to foreign exchange dealers at a seminar this month, four sources said. The central bank is "keen that volumes of such trades go up" and "has assured the market that they will be ready to support banks with INR-AED trades," this banker said. "The RBI is telling banks to first encourage large clients and corporates to start INR-AED trades because their balance sheets are relatively stronger," another banker said.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, corporates, Siddhi Nayak, Jaspreet, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Bank of India, REUTERS, Rights, United Arab, Reuters, Reserve Bank, Indian Oil Corp, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Rights MUMBAI, DELHI, United Arab Emirates, UAE, dirhams, Abu Dhabi
The higher wage expectations are a reflection of this current moment in the economy and the labor market, said Julia Pollak, chief economist for online job marketplace ZipRecruiter. “It largely explains what we’ve been seeing during this summer of strikes and unions pushing for higher wages; and, of course, wages follow inflation, and part of the reason that workers are expecting higher wages is because prices have risen 17.5% since the pandemic,” she said. Men and college grads demand moreWhile reservation wages rose for workers across the board, some groups’ demands are significantly higher than others: For college graduates and men, the wage floors were $98,644 and $91,048, respectively. Women’s reservation wages set a record as well, but at $66,068 — $12,500 below the average and nearly $25,000 below men’s expectations. “Especially in male-dominated industries, women may just not know what the going rate is and underestimate,” Pollak said.
Persons: they’d, , Julia Pollak, they’ve, ” Pollak, they’ll, that’s, Nina Roussille, who’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Locations: Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, Hired.com
People walk by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the financial district of New York City, U.S., June 14, 2023. Meanwhile, respondents to the bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations said that the lowest wage they’d accept to take a job also jumped, hitting a record $78,645, from $72,873 a year ago. The survey said that survey respondents said that in July the average wage offered for a full-time job was $69,475 versus $60,764 in July 2022. The jump in compensation, actual and expected, came even as poll respondents saw some softening around the edges of the job market. The New York Fed reports on labor market expectations quarterly as part of a data series best known for tracking the expected path of inflation and household financial situations.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, they’re, there’s, they’d, , Michael S, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, bank’s Survey, Consumer Expectations, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
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