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Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in September, indicating Americans are tentative about the direction of the economy, according to the latest survey-based index from the University of Michigan. The overall consumer sentiment index, released on Friday, retreated to 67.7 from 69.5 in August, while the current conditions assessment dropped to 69.8 from 75.7 and the forward-looking expectations index increased to 66.3 from 65.5. “Sentiment this month was characterized by divergent movements across index components and across demographic groups with little net change from last month. There was improvement in how consumers see inflation going forward. That means workers are keeping just ahead of inflation, although prices for necessities such as groceries and gasoline have increased.
Persons: , Joanne Hsu, , ” Hsu, ” Bernard Baumohl, Baumohl, “ They’re, Joe Biden, – Ford, Peter Berezin Organizations: University of Michigan, Consumers, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Economic Outlook, Supreme, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Senate, Fed, BCA Research, Global Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S
Australian jobs surge as productivity debate heats up
  + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"Headline indicators report a very strong employment report, but the bias towards predominantly part-time employment should temper exuberance," said Dwyfor Evans, head of APAC macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. Markets maintained bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would keep rates steady next month, with an about 40% chance of one final hike early next year. WAGES, PRODUCTIVITYThe strong figures showed Australia's jobs market is still extremely tight more than and a year-and-a-half after the economy shook off its COVID-era border restrictions. loadingTreasurer Jim Chalmers on Thursday welcomed the strong jobs report, but warned that the labour market could slow from here, a consensus view among economists. Adam Boyton, head of Australian research at ANZ, is already seeing signs of slackening in the labour market, with underemployment rate creeping up and hours worked falling.
Persons: Barista Claudio Chimisso, Loren Elliott, Dwyfor Evans, Tim Gurner, Alexandria Ocasio, Cortez, Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Adam Boyton, Boyton, Stella Qiu, Kim Coghill, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Street Global, Reserve Bank, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, ANZ, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, China
Crunch time after string of aggressive central bank rate hikes
  + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Major central banks have confounded economists with a string of interest rate rises that, so far, have moderated inflation without causing global recession. So far, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,915 bps in this cycle. Reuters Graphics2) NEW ZEALANDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its cash rate to a 14-year high of 5.5% in May and has kept it there since. Reuters Graphics7) AUSTRALIAThe Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at 4.1% for a third consecutive meeting in September, the last under former Governor Philip Lowe. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the world's most dovish major central bank, meets next week.
Persons: BoE, Macklem, Philip Lowe, Lowe's, Michele Bullock, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, UNITED, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of, BRITAIN, of England, CANADA Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada, ECB, Norges Bank, SWEDEN Traders, Swiss, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NORWAY, Reserve Bank of Australia, SWEDEN, Swedish, SWITZERLAND Swiss, JAPAN
Peru's central bank cuts benchmark interest rate to 7.5%
  + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
A worker walks pasts the logo of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) inside its headquarters building in Lima, Peru June 16, 2017. REUTERS/Mariana Bazo/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 14 (Reuters) - Peru's central bank on Thursday cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5% after holding the rate steady for eight straight months, as the monetary authority in the Andean nation sees inflation easing. The central bank first held the rate steady in February following an aggressive series of hikes that began in August 2021. Despite inflation easing, the bank said on Thursday that its decision does not necessarily imply a cycle of successive reductions in the interest rate. Peru's annual inflation rate in August slowed to 5.58%, the lowest since September 2021.
Persons: Mariana Bazo, Carolina Pulice, Brendan O'Boyle Organizations: Central Reserve Bank of, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Central Reserve Bank of Peru, Lima , Peru, Peru, Chile, Brazil, Uruguay, Lincoln
India's August wholesale price index falls 0.52% y/y
  + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
A worker carries a sack of potatoes at a wholesale market in Mumbai, India July 14, 2017. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW DELHI, Sept 14 (Reuters) - India's wholesale price index (INWPI=ECI) fell 0.52% in August from a year earlier, according to government data released on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had estimated the wholesale price index for August would fall 0.6%. Food prices rose 5.62% year-on-year, compared with a sharp rise of 7.75% in July, and manufactured product prices fell 2.37% in August, against a 2.51% fall the previous month. Reporting by Nikunj Ohri; Writing by Shivangi Acharya; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Shailesh Andrade, Shaktikanta Das, Nikunj Ohri, Shivangi Acharya, Jacqueline Wong, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, DELHI
PinnedMany economists think that a cooling job market, with slower pay gains, could pave the way for slower price increases. A recent jump in gas prices probably helped to speed up overall inflation in August, but economists expected a key underlying price measure to grow at a muted pace. Fed officials will closely parse this report, because it is the final major piece of economic data before their Sept. 19-20 monetary policy meeting. Fed officials must decide in coming months whether they need to raise rates again in 2023, and what would merit such a move. The central bank will receive one more Consumer Price Index inflation report before its November gathering, on Oct. 12.
Persons: John C, Williams, Jerome H, Powell, Mr Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The economist Paul Krugman says the war on inflation is pretty much over. This points to a "Goldilocks" scenario, in which inflation cools without a recession. That's perhaps what happened last month, when core inflation was "distorted by lags in the measured price of shelter," Krugman wrote on X, formerly called Twitter. He pointed to what some call a "Goldilocks" scenario, in which inflation cools without a recession. Notably, among items seeing lower inflation, nearly three in four had an increase in the actual quantity bought by consumers.
Persons: Paul Krugman, disinflation, Krugman, Mike Konczal, Konczal, Patience Organizations: Service, New York Times, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Roosevelt Institute Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine
Consumer spending held up the US economy even as many worried about the prospect of a recession. Even as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. Higher rates start to biteLet's start with interest rates. Credit-card debt, in contrast, tends to move up and down with interest rates. That COVID cash stockpile helped support the economy despite rising interest rates and historically high inflation.
Persons: Barbie, Taylor Swift, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Morgan Stanley, Janet Yellen, Yellen, John David Rainey, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, We've, Piper, Nancy Lazar, Lazar Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Credit, Federal Reserve Bank of New, CNBC, San Francisco Fed, Walmart, Fox News Digital Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Ukraine
What happens to the US economy nextBank of America's economic indicator has made a sudden pivot upwards, from the lows of a "downturn" phase into the gradual strengthening of a "recovery" phase. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions.
Persons: it's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Jan, Staples underperformed, Bank of America Subramanian, Dev Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, Thomson, PMI, Supply Management Manufacturing, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey, Conference Board, Bond, ICE, Utilities, Health Care, Fed, of America
REUTERS/David Gray/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWELLINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - New Zealand’s government on Tuesday predicted a larger budget deficit but better-than-expected economic conditions in the year ahead, as it updated forecasts heading into the October election. The government forecast a budget deficit of NZ$11.4 billion ($6.7 billion) for the year ending June 30, 2024, much larger than a deficit of NZ$7.6 billion estimated in May. The global economy has deteriorated since May, which is having a direct impact on New Zealand's economy while tax revenue is also falling, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said in a statement. "Treasury’s latest forecasts show the economy isn’t working for Kiwis," said National Party leader Christopher Luxon. ($1 = 1.6926 New Zealand dollars)Reporting by Lucy Craymer; Editing by Sam Holmes and Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: David Gray, Grant Robertson, Robertson, ", Christopher Luxon, Lucy Craymer, Sam Holmes, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Finance, Zealanders, Treasury, Kiwis, National Party, Reserve Bank of New, Zealand, Thomson Locations: Wellington , New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Spending by the ever-reliable US consumer is about to fizzle out, according to a Bloomberg investor survey. Such resilience has staved off widespread recession fears, but as household savings run out, the fortunes of the US economy could reverse. AdvertisementAdvertisementIndeed, excess savings accumulated since the pandemic are poised to evaporate by as early as the end of September, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has said. "We still have very high prices, but we don't have all of that funny money around anymore, and the excess savings are going negative." The famed investor says the drying up of consumer savings is set to hammer corporate profits as spending declines.
Persons: , Jeffrey Gundlach, Michael Burry Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Billionaire, DoubleLine, Fox Business Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
"We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on," he said. Dimon joins a chorus of recent voices warning over the strong US economy powered by consumer spending. "We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, any changes to the measure are a big deal. AdvertisementAdvertisementAfter all, the resilience of the US consumer has kept the economy going even amid the Federal Reserve's relentless rate hike cycle since March last year.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, We've, Dimon, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Bloomberg, Wall, JPMorgan Locations: Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
US furniture retailers like RH and Williams-Sonoma are struggling to sell products in a tight housing market. The unaffordable housing market is stretching wallets and making new furniture less of a priority for buyers. A slew of furniture brands have reported weaker earnings in the most recent quarter. Furniture retailers have reported weaker sales as Americans, who are struggling to break into the housing market, aren't buying the usual amount of couches, tables, and home goods. "A housing shortage and the over 20-year high on fixed mortgage rates has slowed down housing activity.
Persons: RH, Hooker, Jeremy Hoff Organizations: Williams, Service, Bloomberg, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Sonoma, Wall, Silicon, Williams, Elm, Virginia
The strong consumer spending propping up the US economy may not last, a Bloomberg survey found. Over half of the respondents said they think US personal consumption will shrink in early 2024. High interest rates and a drawdown of pandemic-era savings could hit consumer spending. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, any changes in the measure are a big deal. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, JP Morgan predicted in an August 17 note that the stock market is set to fall as US consumer spending softens.
Persons: Jim Chanos, Anna Wong, James Knightley, David Rosenberg, JP Morgan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Wall, Bloomberg Economics, ING, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The relative stability of inflation expectations last month came as the survey found respondents predicted accelerating price increases for a range of key categories. At the same time, survey respondents were more downbeat about access to credit and their current and future financial positions. A record number of households reported that credit was harder to get and a rising number of respondents predicted tougher credit access in the months ahead. The New York Fed survey arrives as the Fed moves toward its next rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting, scheduled for September 19-20. Inflation expectations “have been incredibly well behaved, “ New York Fed President John Williams said last Thursday.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, , John Williams, we've, Michael S, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, New York Fed, “ New York Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, July’s, Central
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) seal is pictured on a gate outside the RBI headquarters in Mumbai, India, February 2, 2016. Retail CBDC transactions are averaging close to 18,000 a day, way short of the RBI's one million-a-day target by 2023 end. UPI is an instant real-time payments system that allows users to transfer money across multiple banks without disclosing bank account details. The facility, announced in June, has been activated by large banks, including State Bank of India, the country's largest lender. Top private lender HDFC Bank is working with a technology firm IDEMIA to build a version of offline CBDC transactions for feature phones, according to two people aware of the plans.
Persons: Danish Siddiqui, Sharat Chandra, Akhil Handa, Handa, Jaspreet Kalra, Siddhi Nayak, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: Bank of India, REUTERS, Danish, Rights, Reserve Bank of India, UPI, State Bank of India, India Blockchain, HDFC Bank, Bank of Baroda, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Rights MUMBAI, Siddhi
India’s fintech partygoers nurse a needed hangover
  + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
MUMBAI, Sept 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - India’s financial technology industry is suffering from overindulgence. And it was on full display at a sombre Global Fintech Festival in Mumbai last week. The South Asian country is the world’s third-largest fintech market by number of unicorns. Poster child Byju’s is squabbling with lenders as investors walk away and financial reports get delayed. Follow @ShritamaBose on XCONTEXT NEWSThe Global Fintech Fest organised by the National Payments Corporation of India and industry association Payments Council of India was held between Sept. 5 and 7 in Mumbai.
Persons: securitisation, , hesitatingly, Vishwas Patel, they’re, fintechs, Mukesh Ambani’s, Antony Currie, Katrina Hamlin, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Founders, Boston Consulting Group, Venture, Reserve Bank, One97 Communications, FSN, Commerce Ventures, Innoven Triple Blue Capital, XV Partners, Financial, National Payments Corporation of India, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Mumbai, India, fintech, Sequoia Capital’s India, Southeast Asia, Rwanda, Japan, Germany, Peru
[1/2] A man walks in front of the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. They now expect the central bank's 'yield curve control' policy to end in October, compared with April 2024, and for the negative interest rate policy to end in January 2024, versus December 2024. Beyond the Japanese policy drama, investors will also have the latest Indian inflation and industrial production data, and Australian business and consumer sentiment figures to digest on Tuesday. The currency is getting little support from the interest rate outlook - economists currently expect the RBI to keep rates on hold then start easing policy the second quarter of next year.
Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda, Josie Kao Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, of, Government Bond, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Reserve Bank of India's, Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Indonesian, Philippine, India, Australia, Korea
The US economy could be slipping into an expansion rather than a recession, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee highlighted that earnings revisions for S&P 500 companies have started to turn higher. The positive earnings revisions by analysts might be the clearest sign yet that the US economy is going to avoid a recession, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. To me that's slipping into an expansion, it's not a recession. "The upturn in S&P 500 profit estimates is a strong argument the US economy is slipping into an expansion.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Locations: Fundstrat, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago predict inflation will cool without a recession. "That model implies larger effects of monetary policy and faster policy transmission than other empirical models," the economists said. So far, based on the analysis, tighter policy has resulted in 5.4 percentage points in the level of real GDP and 7.1 percentage points in CPI. That represents about 65% and 75% of the total tightening effects on the levels of real GDP and CPI, respectively, that will occur, according to the model. Policy has reduced total hours worked by about 4 percentage points, or about 40% of the total effect that is ultimately projected.
Persons: Stefania D'Amico, Thomas King, D'Amico, King, Henry Blodget Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Service, Consumer, Index, CPI Locations: Wall, Silicon
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The Consumer Price Index reading for August is due on Sept. 13, while the Federal Reserve's policy decision is scheduled for Sept. 20. New York Fed President John Williams kept his options open over future interest rate policy and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said while it "could be appropriate" to skip a rate hike in the upcoming meeting, more policy tightening might be needed. DocuSign (DOCU.O) added 3.1% as the e-Signature product provider beat second-quarter results estimates and raised its annual revenue forecast. GameStop (GME.N) fell 2.3% on a report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating the videogame retailer's chairman, Ryan Cohen.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mark Haefele, Morgan Stanley, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Mary Daly, Ryan Cohen, Shristi Achar, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mizuho, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, UBS Global Wealth Management, Traders, FedWatch, Apple, Wall, Dow e, . New York Fed, Dallas Fed, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Bengaluru
MUMBAI, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Friday on the back of a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields and a broadly softer dollar. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 83.12-83.14 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.21 in the previous session. The rupee has been flirting with the record low of 83.29 and has largely avoided it, thanks to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) intervention. The dollar index retreated in the Asia session to 104.86, having reached a six-month high of 105.15 in the New York session. Another round of losses in the yuan suggest that upside on the rupee following the open "will not be much", the forex traders said.
Persons: Nimesh Vora, Sonia Cheema Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Reserve Bank of India's, New, ANZ, Brent, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Mumbai, Asia, New York, U.S
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan walks to the opening dinner of the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. My base case, though, is that there is work left to do," she said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Dallas Business Club at Southern Methodist University. "After the unacceptably rapid price increases of the past several years, I’m not yet convinced that we’ve extinguished excess inflation." "Another skip could be appropriate when we meet later this month," Logan said, referring to the Fed's upcoming Sept. 19-20 meeting. "In coming months, further evaluation of the data and outlook could confirm that we need to do more to extinguish inflation."
Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, I’m, Logan, Diane Craft Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, U.S, Dallas Business Club, Southern Methodist University, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S
John Williams, Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks at an event in New York, U.S., November 6, 2019. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Thursday that it's an "open question" whether monetary policy is restrictive enough to bring the economy back into balance. Williams declined to say whether the Fed should raise rates again. The Fed is to meet on Sept. 19-20. Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: John Williams, Carlo Allegri, Williams, We’ve, , Michael S, Leslie Adler Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Fed, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, U.S
"The RBI intervened on NDF in the morning (before local over-the-counter, OTC, markets opened) and it did the same yesterday," the head of treasury at a private sector bank said. The banker said the RBI has been intervening in the NDF market via the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) and a large U.S.-based bank. At times, we see (Indian) public sector bank names," the head of proprietary trading at a foreign bank said. By the time local OTC markets opened on Thursday, the contract had retreated to 83.20 and the spot opened at 83.12. Apart from NDF, the central bank has been likely supplying dollars via public sector banks in the local OTC market, traders said.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Nimesh Vora, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Bank of India, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, U.S, BIS, Bank of International, New, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Rights MUMBAI, U.S, Asia, New York
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