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☆ US jobless claims fall as labor market remains tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 24 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, as labor market conditions remained tight despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended Aug. 19, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The labor market is continuing to defy expectations in the face of the Fed's aggressive interest hikes since March 2022, as employers hoard workers after struggling to find labor during the COVID-19 pandemic. Labor market strength and receding inflation are fanning optimism that the economy could avoid a recession. These so-called continuing claims remain low by historical standards, indicating that some laid-off workers are experiencing short spells of unemployment.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Labor Department, Reuters, Labor, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S

The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. The reports came ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at an annual central bank summit in Jackson Hole on Friday that would offer more clues on the direction for the U.S. interest rates. "The Jackson Hole last year was not good for markets. So you've got a little bit of a down shift into a wait-and-see mode to ascertain what Powell is going to sound like this year at Jackson Hole," said Hogan. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.29-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.29-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

Persons: Robert Galbraith, Jerome Powell's, there's, Hogan, Jerome Powell, Jackson, you've, Powell, Amruta Khandekar, Shreyashi Sanyal, Shristi, Savio D'Souza, Shinjini Organizations: Nvidia, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Riley, Microsoft, Apple Inc, Investors, Labor Department, Reuters, Traders, Dow Jones, Boeing, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Santa Clara , California, Jackson, Bengaluru

The American workers who have had their careers upended by automation in recent decades have largely been less educated, especially men working in manufacturing. But the new kind of automation — artificial intelligence systems called large language models, like ChatGPT and Google’s Bard — is changing that. The jobs most exposed to automation now are office jobs, those that require more cognitive skills, creativity and high levels of education. The workers affected are likelier to be highly paid, and slightly likelier to be women, a variety of research has found. In a majority of jobs, the models could do some of the tasks, found the analyses, including from Pew Research Center and Goldman Sachs.

Persons: Bard —, “ It’s, ”, Erik Brynjolfsson, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Stanford Institute for, Labor, Pew Research Center

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Aug 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department said on Wednesday it has seized over $1.4 billion in COVID-19 relief funds that criminals had stolen, and charged over 3,000 defendants with crimes in federal districts across the country. A total of 119 defendants pleaded guilty or were convicted at trial during the sweep, according to the Justice Department. Last year, the U.S. Justice Department tapped federal prosecutor Kevin Chambers to lead its efforts to investigate alleged fraud schemes targeting pandemic assistance programs. Over $200 billion from the U.S. government's COVID-19 relief programs were potentially stolen, a federal watchdog said in late June, adding that the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) had weakened its controls in a rush to disburse the funds. Earlier this year, a separate watchdog report said the U.S. government likely awarded about $5.4 billion in COVID-19 aid to people with questionable Social Security numbers.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Department's, General Merrick Garland, Garland, Kevin Chambers, government's, fraudsters, Kanishka Singh, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Justice, The Justice Department, U.S, Justice Department, U.S . Justice Department, U.S . Small Business Administration, U.S . Labor Department, Social, Thomson Locations: COVID, United States, U.S, Washington

☆ Despite downward revision of 306,000 jobs, the US labor market is still hot
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

As part of the agency’s annual benchmark review of payroll data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down March 2023’s employment gains by 306,000 positions. When the economy stops growing, we will see non-farm payroll employment fall. The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report is based upon survey responses from employers across a wide swath of industries. Wednesday’s preliminary benchmark revision won’t change the existing employment data. The monthly totals for 2022 will be updated in February 2024, when the final benchmark revision is issued.

Persons: Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, of Labor Statistics, Labor, BLS, Quarterly Locations: Minneapolis

☆ Fresh Look at Data Shaves Just a Hair Off U.S. Job Growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The red-hot American job market might be just a couple of degrees cooler than previously believed. There were 306,000 fewer nonagricultural jobs in the United States in March than initially reported, according to revised data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday. That suggests employers added jobs at a slightly slower rate in 2022 and early 2023 than more timely — but less accurate — monthly data suggested. The recent strength of the job market has surprised economists, who expected the rapid increase in interest rates to lead to a more significant slowdown in hiring. Some forecasters thought that the monthly jobs figures were overstating hiring, and that the annual update would show a substantial downward revision.

Organizations: Labor Department Locations: United States

☆ The Fed's next move after raising rates to fight inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some investors are betting on rate cuts as soon as early next year, perhaps on expectations that the economy might soon deteriorate. If unemployment spikes because of higher interest rates, for example, the Fed would likely cut rates to stem job losses under its mandate of maximum employment. The Fed’s tough talk has rattled the bond market, helping push up long-dated yields. In addition to the possibility of cutting rates because of an economic downturn, the Fed could also cut rates if inflation slows too much. “If the Fed sees that inflation goes below the 2% target, they could start decreasing interest rates, but I don’t think they are going to start decreasing interest rates until that happens,” said Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James.

Persons: there’s, Rather, Austan Goolsbee, Mike Hackett, they’ve, ”, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Melissa Brown, China’s ‘ Lehman, Laura, Mengchen Zhang, Technology —, Zhongrong, Read, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Kansas City Fed’s, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Treasury, Nationwide, CNN, Fed, Service, KBC Corporation, Xianheng, Science, Technology, National Association of Realtors, Body, Nvidia, Kansas City, Global, US Commerce Department, Labor Department, Central Bank Locations: Washington, “, China, BJ’s, Abercrombie, Kansas

☆ The decline of Boston Market: Why the chain that sparked the rotisserie chicken craze has closed dozens of stores
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( Nancy Luna | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Boston Market, founded in 1985, sparked the rotisserie chicken craze in the late 1980s and 1990s. Between 2017 and 2022, the Golden, Colorado-based chain closed 161 stores, according to market research firm TechnomicAbout 50 more stores have closed this year. "Boston Market repeatedly has breached its payment obligations to US Foods," the suit states. Boston Market began serving its homestyle meals of spit-roasted rotisserie chickens, made-from-scratch cornbread, and creamy mac and cheese in 1985. Boston Market also faced competition from grocery stores like Costco and Kroger, which began selling rotisserie chickens in 1994.

Persons: Brenda Rivera, Rivera, Seth Wenig, Joseph Petrecca, McDonald's, Jay, Pandya, Tim Powell, That's, It's, it's Organizations: Boston, McDonald's, Service, New Jersey's Labor Department, The, Boston Market, Engage Brands, Restaurant Business, US Foods, Costco, Kroger, Sun Capital Partners, Sun Capital, Restaurant, Group, Companies Locations: New Jersey, Wall, Silicon, California, Boston, , Colorado, Jersey, Massachusetts, Arizona, Orange County , California, Huntington Beach , California

An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsCompanies United States of America FollowSINGAPORE, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices looked set to snap a seven-week winning streak on Friday as concerns about China's slowing economic growth and the possibility of more U.S. interest rate hikes outweighed signs of tightening supply. Investors fret that higher borrowing costs could impede economic growth and in turn reduce overall demand, including for oil. Data released this week also showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by nearly 6 million barrels last week on strong exports and refining run rates. Despite recent economic weaknesses, China made a rare draw on crude oil inventories in July, the first time in 33 months it has dipped into storage.

Persons: Brent, Sudarshan Varadhan, Shri Navaratnam, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Companies United, U.S . West Texas, U.S, Federal, U.S . Labor Department, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ Research, ANZ, Thomson Locations: Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China, Companies United States, America, SINGAPORE, U.S

An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. The U.S. Federal Reserve's focus on containing inflation amid stronger-than-expected economic data was keeping a lid on oil prices. That report followed similarly upbeat economic data earlier in the week, including U.S. retail sales, which all suggested the Fed may have to stick with higher rates for longer. Adding to the concerns, a recent batch of economic data from China, the world's second largest oil consumer, has highlighted the rapid loss in economic momentum there since the second quarter. However, China made a rare draw on crude oil inventories in July, the first time in 33 months it has dipped into storage.

Persons: Brent, Sudarshan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . West Texas, U.S, Federal, U.S . Labor Department, Thomson Locations: Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China

☆ Why Maui’s rebuilding effort will be so expensive
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

All told, doing business in Hawaii is about 30% more expensive than the cost of doing business in the rest of the United States, according to Moody Analytics. “Based on similar historical events, this is likely conservative, as building delays and supply and demand cause additional pressures on reconstruction costs,” said Verisk. Construction permitting generally takes longer in Hawaii than most mainland locations, said Jessica Leorna, CEO of the state’s Building Industry Association. That’s especially true for construction workers, who were in short supply even before the fires, according to the state’s Building Industry Association. And workers from elsewhere in the state or the Southeast could drive home on weekends,” he said.

Persons: ”, Beau Nobmann, Jae C, ” Jason Thies, Nobmann, Jessica Leorna, Jones, it’s, Adam Kamins, there’s, Ian, “ That’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Moody Analytics, HPM, Homes, Industry Association, Labor, Labor Department, state’s, Moody’s Analytics, Moody’s Locations: New York, Maui, United States, Hawaii, Lahaina , Hawaii, Canada, Asia, West Coast, California, Washington, Hawaii’s, Florida

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 24, 2023. Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312% in trading and tested October's 4.338%, before moving lower to 4.29%. Tighter credit conditions will eventually dampen economic activity and markets are choppy from the uncertainty," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial. Wall Street was mixed in the first half of the trading day before accelerating losses as the session ended. Brent crude was up over 1% earlier in the day before settling up 0.35% at $83.74 a barrel.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Yen, Jeffrey Roach, Bill Adams, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Anisha, Sonali Paul, Angus MacSwan, Chizu Nomiyama, Nick Macfie, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, LPL Financial, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S . Labor Department, Comerica Bank, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, CHINA, China, China's, Singapore, London, Bengaluru

☆ US weekly jobless claims fall; tight labor market underpinning economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The labor market is only slowing at the margin, with job gains in July being the second-smallest since December 2020. Labor market strength, excess savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic and greater credit card usage to fund purchases have kept a recession at bay. Some economists saw the slight elevation as indicating a small margin of slack in the job market. The Philadelphia Fed’s business conditions index increased to a reading of 12.0 this month from -13.5 in July. A survey this week from the New York Fed showed business conditions in the “Empire State” remained depressed in August.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, ”, Christopher Rupkey, Jerome Powell’s, Jeffrey Roach, Bill Adams, Daniel Silver Organizations: WASHINGTON, REUTERS, Federal, Labor Department, Reuters, Treasury, Conference, Labor, LPL Financial, Conference Board, Comerica Bank, Philadelphia Fed, New York Fed, JPMorgan Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Ohio, California, Texas , Michigan , New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Charlotte , North Carolina, Dallas, New Jersey, Delaware, Philadelphia, “

☆ US weekly jobless claims fall as labor market remains tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to a still tight labor market. Although the labor market is slowing, with job gains in July the second smallest since December 2020, conditions generally remain tight. The unemployment rate is at levels last seen more than 50 years ago. Labor market resilience is underpinning the economy, by driving retail sales and homebuilding. The so-called continuing claims increased 32,000 to 1.716 million during the week ending Aug. 5, the claims report showed.

Persons: Amira Karaoud Organizations: WASHINGTON, REUTERS, Labor Department, Reuters, Labor Locations: Louisville, U.S, Ohio

☆ Stock Market Today: Dow, Nasdaq Open Higher; Cisco, Walmart Stocks in Focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Ten-year Treasury yields are up again after settling at their highest level since 2008, an ascent that is raising concern on Wall Street about the potential fallout for stocks. Yields have been driven up mostly by the strength of the U.S. economy, and the prospect of inflation remaining stubbornly high. Stocks were in the red following two days of losses spurred in part by higher yields. The S&P 500 and Dow industrials were modestly lower, while the Nasdaq Composite was off about 0.5%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose above 4.3%, after settling at 4.258% Wednesday.

Persons: Stocks, Dow industrials Organizations: Labor Department, Retail, Walmart, Nasdaq, Hawaiian Electric, Moderna, Global, Japan’s Nikkei Locations: U.S, Maui, Europe, Shanghai

☆ Strong US retail sales underscore economy's resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

SummaryCompanies Retail sales increase 0.7% in July; June sales revised upCore retail sales jump 1.0%; June sales revised downImport prices rebound 0.4%; down 4.4% year-on-yearWASHINGTON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in July as Americans boosted online purchases and dined out more, suggesting the economy continued to expand early in the third quarter and keeping a recession at bay. Retail sales jumped 0.7% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, shot up 1.4% after rising 0.8% in June. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales surged 1.0% in July. Data for June was revised lower to show these so-called core retail sales increasing 0.5% instead of the previously reported 0.6%.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Andrew Hunter, David Russell, Matthew Martin, Ben Ayers, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Commerce Department, Capital Economics, Retail, Reuters, Consumers, Market Intelligence, Wall, Treasury, Labor Department, Oxford Economics, delinquencies, New York Fed, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Columbus , Ohio

☆ Dollar gains, crosses key 145 yen level
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. In the 12 months through July, the PPI rose 0.8% after a 0.2% gain the prior month. Prior to the inflation data, that chance was already above 85%. The stronger dollar led the yen to briefly touch 145.03 in late afternoon trade, its highest since June 30. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, which prompted the Finance Ministry to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen.

Persons: Florence Lo, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Everyone's, Marvin Loh, Loh, Moh Siong Sim, Herbert Lash, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Kirsten Donovan, William Maclean, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Federal, PPI, Labor Department, Treasury, Singapore, Finance Ministry, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Macquarie, New York, Boston, Japan, London, Singapore

☆ Stocks fall, yields rise after hotter than expected inflation reading
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. producer price index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% in July, according to the Labor Department. And in the 12 months through July, the PPI rose 0.8% against estimates for a 0.7% advance. On Thursday, Wall Street's main indexes had finished flat, giving up most early gains on milder-than-feared consumer price inflation data. In currencies, the dollar index rose 0.107%, with the euro down 0.18% to $1.0959. On the U.S. Treasuries side, yields rose after the hotter than expected PPI.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Mary Daly, Sterling, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Elizabeth Howcroft, John Stonestreet, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Reserve, Labor Department, PPI, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Britain, International Energy Agency, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, St Louis, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid//File PhotoSummaryCompanies US-listed China stocks fall as stimulus measures disappointFutures mixed: Dow up 0.02%, S&P down 0.06%, Nasdaq down 0.16%Aug 11 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were subdued on Friday as investors awaited producer prices data that could offer more clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path. Investors are now focused on the producer prices data due at 8:30 a.m ET that will offer more insight into inflation in the world's largest economy. U.S. Labor Department's producer price index (PPI) for final demand, is expected to rise 0.2% in July, after growing 0.1% in June. "This (PPI) data set is something of a crystal ball for consumer price inflation; when producers charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to households." "Higher yields incentivize investors to park their cash in the safety of bonds, and therefore decreases demand for risky plays like equities."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Marios Hadjikyriacos, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Benchmark, Labor, PPI, Dow e, Nvidia, Treasury, XM, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, JD.com, Bengaluru

☆ Strong services costs lift US producer prices; inflation expectations dip
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some said the downgrade to June's data meant the rise in the PPI last month was in line with expectations. In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 0.8% after gaining 0.2% in June, boosted by a lower base of comparison last year. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices were unchanged last month after falling 0.2% in June. In the 12 months through July, the so-called core PPI increased 2.7%, matching June's rise. As with all the July inflation data, the pick-up in the annual core PCE rate is due to unfavorable base effects.

Persons: Bill Adams, Will Compernolle, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Consumers, University of, CPI, Fed, Thomson Locations: August WASHINGTON, Dallas, U.S, New York, disinflation

☆ US dollar recovers from inflation-related losses; yen slumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The greenback climbed to five-week peaks against the yen of 144.735 , and last traded up 0.7% at 144.71 yen. The recovery of the dollar against both the euro and yen pushed the dollar index up 0.1% to 102.56 . Earlier in the session, the dollar dropped after data showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month, matching the gain in June. Investors are also on the lookout for possible intervention by the Japan to lift the yen. In September, Japan intervened when the dollar rose above 145 yen, pushing the pair to around 140 yen as the Ministry of Finance bought the yen to weaken the dollar.

Persons: Florence Lo, Yen, Helen, It's, Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Mary Daly, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Alun John, Mark Potter, Andrea Ricci, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, Monex USA, Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Federal, Market, Fed, Labor Department, Analysts, Ministry of Finance, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, Japan, London

☆ Shares, dollar gains after moderate US CPI data
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The consumer price index (CPI) gained 0.2% last month, the Labor Department said, lifting the annualized rate to 3.2% from 3% in June. The pace of core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 4.7% in July from 4.8% the prior month. But investors remained cautious as another CPI report and jobs data await Fed policymakers before their next meeting in September. MSCI's gauge of stock performance across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.38%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.79%. Gold prices ticked up after the U.S. inflation data on speculation the Fed is at the end of its rate hike cycle.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Russell Price, Price, Brad Bechtel, Brad Conger, Callaghan, Brent, Herbert Lash, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Edwina Gibbs, Sam Holmes, Susan Fenton, Alexandra Hudson, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Labor Department, Reuters, Fed, Ameriprise, FX, Jefferies, Co, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Troy , Michigan, Conshohocken , Pennsylvania, CHINA, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London

☆ Daly: Premature to say if Fed has done enough on rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Whether we raise another time, or hold rates steady for a longer period -- those things are yet to be determined," Daly said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. "It would be premature to project what I think would happen because there's a lot of information coming in between now and our next meeting." While goods inflation is receding, and newly signed lease trends signal inflation from housing will also cool, core services inflation excluding housing has so far made little progress, Daly said. The Fed raised its policy a quarter of a percentage point last month, to a range of 5.25% to 5%, and policymakers will consider whether to raise rates further when they meet again in September, November and December. Daly before the most recent rate hike had thought a total of two more interest-rate increases would likely be needed before year's end, but she did not reiterate that view on Thursday.

Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, Ann Saphir, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Yahoo Finance, U.S . Labor Department, Fed, Traders, Thomson

REUTERS/Sarah SilbigerAug 10 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to raise interest rates again in 2023 and will probably start cutting them early next year, traders bet on Thursday, after a U.S. government report showed consumer prices rose only moderately last month. Traders of futures tied to the Fed's policy rate now see less than a 10% chance that the U.S. central bank will increase its benchmark overnight interest rate from its current 5.25%-5.50% range at a Sept. 19-20 policy meeting. The Fed's first rate cut is priced into the futures contracts by March of 2024. The Fed has driven its policy rate up by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to bring inflation back down to its 2% goal. "There's always a chance we get reacceleration of inflation prints after October, but I don't think that's going to spur Fed action."

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Guy Lebas, Janney Montgomery Scott, Ann Saphir, Karen Brettell, Lucia Mutikani, Bernadette Baum, Paul Simao Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Traders, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ The Benefit of Falling Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Journal Editorial Report: How to make Congress a nullity. Images: Bloomberg News/Associated Press Composite: Mark KellyIf you want to know why it’s too soon to give up on the fight against inflation, take a look at the data released Thursday by the Labor Department on real earnings. Americans are finally getting a raise after two years of falling living standards.

Persons: Mark Kelly, it’s Organizations: Bloomberg, Labor Department

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