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☆ Forget next year. The tech downtrend may be in danger of leaking into 2024
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Weak outlook, reduced estimates, significant oversupply. Looking for an imminent bottom in global tech demand is proving very elusive, at least if you look at Micron's earnings report. "These are the most challenging conditions for the memory market since the financial crisis," Chris Caso at Credit Suisse said, after he looked over Micron's numbers. "Losses mount over significant oversupply," Joseph Moore at Morgan Stanley said. "In a rapidly deteriorating memory environment driven by inventory corrections/demand weakness across nearly every end market, pricing continues to be the biggest headwind to memory profitability/earnings," Harlan Sur at JPMorgan warned.

☆ Indonesia confirms bauxite export ban to proceed as scheduled
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Fransiska Nangoy | Bernadette Christina | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The timing of Indonesia’s ban, however, is in line with its current mining law. The measure, which led to a dispute at the World Trade Organization (WTO), also helped boost the value of Indonesia’s exports. China was the biggest importer of Indonesia’s bauxite until Jakarta introduced a mineral export ban in 2014, which it lifted in 2017. Indonesia’s bauxite reserves are enough for up to 100 years production, he said. He said there was a possibility that legal action could be pursued against Indonesia for banning bauxite exports, but it would not deter him.

Some top equity strategists predict no profit growth or even a decline in earnings. For the U.S. benchmark S&P 500, analysts project full-year 2023 profit growth of 4.7% following estimated growth of 5.7% for all of 2022, based on Refinitiv data. Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse Securities in New York, recently lowered his profit forecast and expects a decline in year-over-year S&P 500 earnings in 2023. "Our analysis shows that both earnings and margins typically contract when global GDP (gross domestic product) growth ran below trend". Earnings breakdown by regionEarnings growth by global sectorBlackRock in its 2023 global outlook said earnings expectations are not yet pricing in a recession.

☆ From recovery to regulation: How China's tech giants could fare in 2023 after a bruising year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Arjun Kharpal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

But investors are starting to feel slightly more optimistic toward Chinese tech giants in 2023. Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesIt's been another rough year for China's tech stocks. Xin Sun King's College LondonHow the exit from zero-Covid is handled could ultimately determine the extent of the rebound for China tech. Since the start of 2021, the Hang Seng tech index in Hong Kong, which includes most of China's tech giants, has fallen more than 50%. Firstly, Chinese tech firms have been cutting costs and exiting non-core businesses in order to boost profitability.

A large dent has also come from industrial sectors forced to curb output as high gas prices make production uneconomic with some firms shifting production to regions with cheaper energy. FIGHT FOR SUPPLIESThe obvious way to boost supplies is through liquefied natural gas (LNG). That may not happen next year, meaning Europe would face fierce competition for LNG that would drive up the cost. Record high prices in Europe, however painful, helped the region to secure record volumes of LNG imports this year. Benchmark European gas prices hit a peak in August of more than 300 euros/MWh.

☆ Stock futures rise slightly after major averages extend losses to start the week
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were slightly higher on Monday night. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 44 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures edged higher by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Last week, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points and policymakers indicated the terminal rate could rise as high as 5.1%. A handful of big companies will report their quarterly results this week ahead of the Christmas holiday.

☆ JPMorgan upgrades Meta to buy, saying top and bottom-line pressures will ease in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"Heading into 2023, Meta should be comping peak TikTok impact early in the year, and we believe overall Meta engagement remains solid, with time spent per user stabilizing," said Anmuth. Reels, Meta's TikTok competitor, should be revenue neutral next year, according to JPMorgan. Of course, JPMorgan still sees major losses ahead for Meta's reality labs division. "Reality Labs losses increasingly weigh on Meta's GAAP earnings & we project RL losses doubling from $6.6B in 2020 to $13.7B in 2022," Anmuth wrote. JPMorgan projects reality labs losses reaching $17 billion in 2023 and $19 billion in 2024.

☆ Big Tech's had a devastating year. Here's why we're holding on
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Amazon Amazon has been battling with rightsizing its business due to the pull-forward demand it experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. We'd also like to see how the company is addressing slower growth at its cloud business, Amazon Web Services (AWS). Microsoft Microsoft has been pressured by weakening demand for personal computers, the strong U.S. dollar and tightening enterprise budgets for the cloud. "I think the company could have a decent quarter and it hasn't had to issue a warning about what is now the declining dollar," Jim said. The logos of Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft displayed on a mobile phone and a laptop screen.

☆ Zoning is a bigger headwind to housing than inventory, says Pulte Capital CEO Bill Pulte
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailZoning is a bigger headwind to housing than inventory, says Pulte Capital CEO Bill PultePulte Capital CEO Bill Pulte joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the housing industry as homebuilder stocks hold up.

☆ Bank of America downgrades Best Buy, says stock could fall nearly 20% as inflation hurts spending
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The investment case for Best Buy looks murky as retailers face a slowing consumer spending environment, according to Bank of America. Best Buy shares have come under significant pressure this year as retailers grapple with high inflation and a pullback in consumer spending. The stock's down more than 17% year to date, with Bank of America's $69 price target suggesting shares could fall another 18% from Tuesday's close. Suzuki's price target suggests that stock trades at 10 times the bank's 2024 earnings per share forecast, which is below the historic averages for both Best Buy and the hardline retail sector. "We believe this discount is warranted given the pressure on consumer discretionary spending in light of inflation," she wrote.

☆ What to do about the highest interest rate in 15 years
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

In its last policymaking meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate for the seventh time in a row, to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Otherwise, any remaining balance will be subject to a new interest rate that could be higher than you had before if rates continue to rise. That said, “don’t jump into a large purchase that isn’t right for you just because interest rates might go up. If that’s not possible, consider paying off that balance by taking out a HELOC with another lender at a lower promotional rate, McBride suggested. The floating rate is tied to a short-term benchmark rate, such as the fed funds rate, so it will go up whenever the Fed hikes rates.

☆ Morgan Stanley's top auto analyst Jonas sees tough year ahead for EVs, gives his top picks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Analyst Adam Jonas is expecting a "challenging" 2023 for auto earnings on the back of declining demand and deflation – particularly for electric vehicle makers. But Jonas' price target implies the stock could gain 10.6% from where it closed Tuesday. Jonas cut the expected electric vehicle penetration forecasts for 2025 and 2030 to 11% and 26%, respectively, from 13% and 32%. Tesla and Rivian are both electric vehicle makers among his top picks. The stock, which is down 48.4% this year, has a price target that shows it could gain 34% over Tuesday's close.

☆ Tax-loss selling in battered U.S. stocks could spur January snap-back
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Yet some investors are betting a number of those beaten-down stocks and possibly the broader market could snap back in January, once the selling period is over. DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC on Wednesday that risk assets will likely rally in January once retail investors finish tax-loss selling. Strategists at Evercore wrote on Nov. 30 that they were "buyers of stocks whose 2022 Tax Loss selling pressure will soon abate." Investors appear to have already started selling underperforming shares. Private clients at BofA, for instance, sold nearly $1.4 billion of stocks in likely tax-motivated selling in November, up from roughly $800 million last year, and appear poised to continue that outsized rate of selling this month, the firm said.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee likely to slip as U.S. data stokes higher rates worry
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was expected to weaken at the open on Monday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields ticked higher as U.S. data late last week affirmed the need for higher interest rates. "Equity outflows are a visible headwind (to the rupee), likely given optimism on China," Barclays wrote in a note. The dollar index was back above the 105-level, while the benchmark Treasury yields were at 3.5820%, having jumped 9 basis points on Friday. Data, on that day, showed U.S. monthly producer prices rose 0.3% in November, higher than expected, with October figures revised upwards, suggesting interest rates would remain higher for longer. In India, November CPI data is due after market hours, which likely cooled to a nine-month low of 6.40%, a Reuters poll showed.

☆ Crypto winter end in sight as Ethereum looks to shake the chills- analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

J.P.MORGAN:"We believe that the Ethereum Merge and really the Ethereum Surge could be a big factor in terms of increasing the use-cases for blockchain into new areas, including financial services," analysts said in an early December note. The Ethereum Merge was a major software upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain that went live in September and reduced its energy usage by 99.95%, according to developers. "We continue to see the Ethereum Surge as a catalyst for development in the cryptocurrency markets, which appears at least 6-12 months away." "From the China crackdown to the several price crashes in earlier 2022, crypto mining has shown an approximately 1-to-1 price-power relationship. Norwood expects the crypto market to pick up in about six months.

☆ The 2 factors that could send oil prices 23% higher over the next year, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Global crude prices have fallen sharply but they could jump 23% over the next 12 to 36 monhts, according to Bank of America. BofA analysts said oil prices depend on a Fed pivot, as well as China reopening its economy. Fears of weaker growth have dragged oil lower, as well as other commodity markets, but a Fed pivot could bring demand back and send oil prices higher, Bank of America strategists wrote in a Monday note. Demand risks from a delayed China reopening could keep oil prices muted, but if Beijing accelerates the process it would present upside for Brent crude. What's more, aggregate open interest in oil markets has fallen off to a point not seen since 2015, BofA said, which poses another headwind for oil prices from the investor side.

☆ Goldman Sachs downgrades Cheesecake Factory, says traffic could keep falling amid inflationary pressures
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Inflationary challenges will bite into Cheesecake Factory 's stock next year, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst Jared Garber downgraded Cheesecake Factory to sell from neutral. He also lowered his price target for the stock to $29, which reflects a downside of 12.2% over Friday's close. Garber said companies are experiencing a tougher economic backdrop as wages remain sticky and inflation pushes traffic down with consumers restricting spending. The Cheesecake Factory could see traffic decrease further than it already has, with the company currently underperforming the industry, based on a Goldman Sachs analysis.

☆ Ronna McDaniel locked down votes for RNC chair despite the midterm debacle. Here's how she did it.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Jonathan-Allen-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Jonathan Allen | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +9 min

An ally, Richard Porter, an RNC member from Illinois, met with her in Washington to make sure she wanted to run for another two-year term. And the most ardent Trump critics among RNC members say McDaniel, Trump's pick for the post six years ago, is too close to him. Bill Palatucci, an RNC member from New Jersey, said he opposes McDaniel's re-election for that reason. For McDaniel to lose, an opponent would have to win the remaining undecided RNC members and swipe nearly two dozen avowed McDaniel backers. Lori Klein Corbin, an RNC member from Arizona who hasn’t committed to any candidate, said McDaniel hasn’t asked for her vote yet.

☆ Biggest headwind for oil is weak global consumer spending, says Hotchkis' Stan Majcher
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBiggest headwind for oil is weak global consumer spending, says Hotchkis' Stan MajcherStan Majcher, Hotchkis & Wiley Mid Cap Fund portfolio manager, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss gasoline futures and America's role in oil production.

☆ Euro zone likely heading into mild recession - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity declined for a fifth month in November, suggesting the economy was sliding into a mild recession as consumers cut spending amid surging inflation, a survey showed. S&P Global's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the euro zone, seen as a good guide to economic health, nudged up to 47.8 in November from October's 23-month low of 47.3, matching a preliminary estimate. "A fifth consecutive monthly falling output signalled by the PMI adds to the likelihood that the euro zone is sliding into recession," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Still, the input and output prices index both fell suggesting inflationary pressures may have already peaked, likely welcome news to policymakers at the European Central Bank. The output prices index was a 3-month low of 62.3.

☆ C$ posts weekly decline as U.S. jobs data rattles investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Fergal Smith | Asif Shahzad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3485 to the greenback, or 74.16 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3421 to 1.3520. U.S. stock indexes fell as the U.S. jobs data reignited investor concerns about the Federal Reserve continuing on its path of aggressive monetary policy tightening. Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with the forecast gain of 5,000, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%. The 2-year dipped nearly one basis point to 3.786%, while the 10-year was down 3.8 basis points at 2.796%. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall Street mistakenly overlooking Salesforce's solid quarter by focusing too much on co-CEO exit
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Sure, cRPO (current remaining performance obligation) was a little light and the fiscal fourth quarter revenue guide midpoint missed by a hair (some conservatism probably due to the uncertain macro environment). Companywide results Breaking down quarterly subscription and support revenue results by cloud: Sales cloud revenue increased 17% in constant currency to $1.7 billion. Service cloud revenue increased 16% in constant currency to $1.9 billion. Platform and other (including Slack, which Salesforce acquired on July 21, 2021) revenue increased 22% in constant currency to $1.5 billion. Guidance For their fiscal fourth quarter, Salesforce management sees revenues increasing 8% to 10% year over year to $7.93 billion to $8.03 billion.

☆ Recent weakness in the strong dollar is a welcome development for multinational Club stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The dollar has run into a brick wall in November, a potentially hopeful sign for multinational Club stocks that have seen their earnings dented because of the U.S. currency's strength this year. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has declined more than 5% to around the 107 level since settling at nearly 113 on Nov. 3. However, the dollar index, which measures against six other currencies including the Japanese yen and the euro, is still up more than 10% compared with this time in 2021. Even though currency considerations don't factor into our long-term investment theses , the strong dollar has been a thorn in the side of many Club stocks in 2022. But it's important to understand near-term dynamics because we've seen how the strong U.S. dollar has pinched profits at Club stocks like P & G, Apple (AAPL), Salesforce (CRM) and more.

☆ Weakness in Apple’s stock could be a warning for the broader market, chart technicians say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Apple stock was down more than 2% Tuesday, after declining Monday and Friday. Apple's sizeable weighting Apple is 6.5% of the S & P 500 market cap, and technical analysts say it has implications for the broad market both in price impact and sentiment. Apple is 6.5% of the S & P. I would say it's remarkable how strong the S & P 500 is today with a 2% decline in Apple. "I can't imagine that happening without getting a sell signal on the S & P chart." She said the S & P 500 chart is maintaining a buy signal that has been in place for several weeks.

☆ The Fed just crushed hopes of rate cuts anytime soon - and the US economy will suffer stagflation next year, a top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed officials said the inflation fight isn't over and they don't expect to cut interest rates soon. Their words were a "reality check" and "bucket of cold water" for investors, Christopher Smart said. The top strategist expects weak growth, stubborn inflation, and rates to peak around 5% next year. Instead of rebounding, the US economy will shrink and face stubborn price increases next year, Christopher Smart has said. "It is a reality check," Barings' chief global strategist continued, noting investors have repeatedly shrugged off the Fed's hawkish messaging in recent months.

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