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Credit card companies are racking up losses at the fastest pace in almost 30 years, outside of the Great Financial Crisis, according to Goldman Sachs. Credit card losses bottomed in September 2021, and while initial increases were likely reversals from stimulus, they have been rapidly rising since the first quarter of 2022. Since that time, it's an increasing rate of losses only seen in recent history during the recession of 2008. Of the past five credit card loss cycles, three were characterized by recessions, he said. Nash sees the most downside risk for Capital One Financial, followed by Discover Financial Services .
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ryan Nash, Nash, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Capital, Discover Financial Services Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The Federal Reserve system is cutting approximately 300 jobs through the end of the year, a Fed spokesperson confirmed to CNN on Friday. The Fed system employs about 21,000 people across its 12 regional reserve banks. The job cuts will mostly focus on support positions, including technology roles that are no longer needed, the Fed spokesperson said. Reflecting that optimism, Fed officials upgraded their forecast for economic growth and lowered their projection for unemployment. However, Powell also conceded that cooling inflation back to healthy levels will likely require “some softening” of the jobs market and he warned that a soft landing is no guarantee.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Powell, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, CNN, Reuters, Fed Locations: New York, headcount
The spokesperson, who would not speak for direct attribution, said the staff cuts represented a combination of attrition, including retirements, and layoffs. While small compared to the size of the Fed, it is the first time budgeted headcount has fallen since 2010. SELF-FUNDEDThe staff reductions are happening at a sensitive time for the Fed. Unlike federal agencies that spend tax dollars allocated by Congress, the Fed is self-funding. In most years the Fed generates a profit that is turned over to the U.S. Treasury.
Persons: Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal, Fed, of Governors, Reuters, Governors, Congress, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, Congress
Global central banks unite in "higher for longer" credo
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The so-called "higher for longer" mantra is now the official stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as being echoed by monetary policy-makers from Oslo to Tapei. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers had a similar message on Wednesday. Turkey's central bank confirmed its hawkish turn while in Asia, Taiwan's central bank flagged continued tight policy. Reuters Graphics"TIPPING POINT"Belgian central bank chief and ECB board member Pierre Wunsch - an early voice urging tougher central bank action to counter inflation from end-2021 - said on Thursday that monetary policy was now at the right level. That said, the prospect that global interest rates are pretty close to peak will be of huge relief to emerging economies suffering from heavy debt servicing loads.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, COVID lockdowns, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Swiss National Bank, South African Reserve Bank, People's Bank of, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Economics, Sterling, Swiss, United, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Central, Oslo, Tapei, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Asia, People's Bank of China, Belgian, United States, Ukraine, Washington, Frankfurt, London, Stockholm, Zurich, Ankara
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell made it very clear the Fed won't abandon the 2% inflation target: Former Dallas Fed presidentRichard Fisher, who served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 2005 to 2015, says "the question is the speed with which they get there."
Persons: Powell, Richard Fisher Organizations: Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Morning Bid: Fed leaves shoe dangling in policy parade
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
At least eight major central banks are meeting on Thursday. Central banks in South Africa and Turkey are also meeting. Futures now show the implied Fed policy rate for the end of next year at a new cycle high of 4.85% - up a whopping 35 basis points in just over a week. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:* Bank of England policy decision; South Africa Reserve Bank policy decision, Central Bank of Turkey policy decision. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks* Philadelphia Fed's September business survey, U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. Aug existing home sales, U.S. Q2 current account estimate.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Robin Brooks, Brooks, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Darden, Christina Fincher Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Swiss National Bank, Bank of, Fed, for International Finance, Treasury, Swiss, Africa Reserve Bank, Central Bank of, European Central Bank, Factset, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Norwegian, Bank of England, South Africa, Turkey, Central Bank of Turkey, Philadelphia
The average interest rate for all credit card accounts hit 20.68% in May, the highest on record, according to most recent Federal Reserve data. "But credit cards do charge the highest interest rates of any mainstream consumer debt [by far]," he wrote in an e-mail. This is why it's so important to prioritize credit card debt payoff." Total credit card debt topped $1 trillion in the second quarter of 2023 for the first time ever. "Whenever the Fed has raised interest rates as they have, something usually tips or fails," he said.
Persons: Barry Glassman, Ted Rossman, Cardholders, Glassman, CreditCards.com, Rossman, Bankrate Organizations: CreditCards.com, Federal Reserve, Wealth, Westend61, Getty, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank Locations: Vienna , Virginia, North Bethesda , Maryland, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Silicon, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's a 'toss-up' whether the Fed will hike rates again, says former Kansas City Fed presidentThomas Hoenig, distinguished senior fellow at Mercatus Center at George Mason University and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, says "we won't know until we see more inflation data."
Persons: Thomas Hoenig Organizations: Kansas City Fed, Mercatus, George Mason University, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas Locations: Kansas, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
CNN —A rare $10,000 bill dating back to the Great Depression has sold for $480,000 at auction. Issued in 1934, the Federal Reserve note was certified by Paper Money Guaranty (PMG) and was Exceptional Paper Quality (EPQ) graded, according to Dallas-based auction house Heritage Auctions. A rare 1899 double eagle $20 gold coin featuring a portrait of the head of Liberty topped the Coins auction. Heritage AuctionsTopping the house’s parallel coins auction was a rare 1899 double eagle $20 gold coin featuring a portrait of the head of Liberty. Only 84 coins of its kind were issued, and only about 30 are thought to still be around, according to the auction house.
Persons: Lincoln’s, Salmon, , , Dustin Johnston, ” Johnston, Todd Imhof Organizations: CNN, Money Guaranty, Treasury, Heritage, Federal, Museum of American Finance, US, of Engraving, Liberty Locations: Dallas, Boston
MUMBAI (Reuters) - India’s banking system liquidity deficit is at its widest in over four years ago, amid tax outflows and the lack of any major inflows, traders said on Wednesday. REUTERS/Hemanshi Kamani/File PhotoBanking system liquidity deficit jumped to 1.47 trillion rupees ($17.67 billion) as on September 18, the highest single day shortfall since April 23, 2019, while banks have borrowed a record 1.97 trillion rupees from the central bank’s Marginal Standing Facility window. Advance tax payments took place last week, while outflows towards Goods and Services tax will be completed by Wednesday, with bankers estimating aggregate outflows of up to 2.50 trillion rupees. Moreover, “another drain on rupee liquidity could be from RBI’s (Reserve Bank of India) FX intervention if depreciation pressures on the rupee persist,” said Gaura Sen Gupta, an economist with IDFC First Bank. The liquidity deficit will, however, narrow towards the end of this month and the beginning of October as government spending picks up and the I-CRR is completely wound down.
Persons: Hemanshi, , Gaura Sen Gupta, Upasna Bhardwaj Organizations: REUTERS, Goods, Services, Reserve Bank of India, IDFC, Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank Locations: MUMBAI, India, RBI’s
Dollar firm but softens against yen ahead of FOMC
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Brigid Riley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
TOKYO, Sept 20 (Reuters) - The dollar remained firm on Wednesday but softened slightly against the yen ahead of a much-anticipated rate decision by the Federal Reserve later in the day. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of rivals, stayed mostly flat at 105.13 as traders awaited the Fed's rate decision. Dollar/yen could see some upside pressure after a hawkish FOMC meeting, she added. The yen last sat nearly 0.1% higher at 147.77 versus the greenback, off Tuesday's low of 147.92 though hovering near the 10-month trough against the dollar ahead of the FOMC announcement. The New Zealand dollar ticked up over 0.2% against the dollar near $0.5950.
Persons: Carol Kong, Masato Kanda, Brigid Riley, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan's, Reserve Bank, Australia's, New Zealand, Bank of England, bitcoin BTC, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, China, bitcoin
New Zealand economy expands faster than expected
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Shoppers walk in front of a retail shop displaying a sale sign in central Wellington, New Zealand, July 3, 2017. Annual growth increased to 1.8%, Statistics New Zealand data showed, above expectations of 1.2%. "It's a victory for the New Zealand economy and for the people who work hard every single day to deliver high quality jobs," Finance Minister Grant Robertson told reporters. The handling of the economy has been a central theme in this year's election with the opposition criticising the government's role in record high inflation and the slowing economy. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has been forecasting the economy would slip into recession in the second half of 2023.
Persons: David Gray, Gabrielle, Grant Robertson, Lucy Craymer, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Statistics, New Zealand, U.S . Federal, Labour, New, Finance, ASB, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Wellington , New Zealand, WELLINGTON, Statistics New Zealand, Zealand, New Zealand
A customer hands Indian currency notes to an attendant at a fuel station in Mumbai, India, August 13, 2018. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas Acquire Licensing RightsMUMBAI, Sept 20 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, hovering near a record low, is expected to remain under pressure amid focus on crude oil prices and the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision. Non-deliverable forwards (NDF) indicate rupee will open at around 83.25-83.29 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.2675 in the previous session. The Fed on Wednesday is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged with futures assigning a near zero percent probability of a rate hike. "We expect the 2023 median policy rate forecast to show one more 25bps hike, for a terminal rate of 5.5-5.75%," BofA Global Research said in a note.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Brent, Nimesh Vora, Mrigank Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Reserve Bank of, Fed, Research, Brent, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Rights MUMBAI, U.S . Federal, Reserve Bank of India, Asia
The idea, we Indians were told each time, was to allow the nation to make a clean break once and for all with its colonial past. The question on the minds of many people who follow events in India, is why any name change would be needed. It’s an opportunity to double down on India’s Hindu identity, even in the name by which it is called. The debate is a live one, however: Some disagree, saying that no amendment to the constitution would be needed to change India’s name. Do the country’s Indian Institutes of Technology become BITs?
Persons: Akanksha Singh, Singh, Droupadi Murmu, Bharat, Narendra Modi’s, Bharat ”, Modi, It’s, Akbar, Deen Dayal, Modi’s, Rahul Gandhi, Reserve Bank of India –, I’ve, ” Encouragingly Organizations: BBC, Independent, South China Morning Post, CNN, Mumbai CNN, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Bharat, Reserve Bank of India, Institutes of Technology, India, United Nations Locations: Mumbai, South China, India, Calcutta, Kolkata, Bombay, Madras, Chennai, Allahabad, Manipur
Mexico is now America's top trade partner thanks to US-China tensions and "nearshoring." AdvertisementAdvertisementMexico's infrastructure is not readyBeing a more attractive trade partner to the US is one thing. China is now Mexico's largest trading partner globally, and Mexico is already China's second-largest trade partner in Latin America. China's Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico is still small (about 1% of Mexico's Foreign Direct Investment) but it is its fastest-growing source of outside investment. If Mexico's economy is going to surge, it needs to be more than just a middleman.
Persons: Luis Torres, , Tesla, JULIO CESAR AGUILAR, Xi Jinping, Lintao Zhang, Kearney, Gerardo Esquivel Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of, Foreign, Investment, Bloomberg, Getty, Publishing Locations: Mexico, China, Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Nuevo León, Latin America, Yantai, Shandong Province, Mexican, United States
The Federal Reserve, as expected, left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday while raising forecasts for economic growth and lowering them for unemployment next year. “Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.”The central bank updated its forecasts for economic growth, unemployment and inflation. The GDPNow estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now pegging economic growth in the third quarter at 4.9%. But it would likely curb economic growth at a time when the Fed’s policies have restricted credit and other government stimulus is waning.
Persons: , ” Powell, , Powell, Andrew Patterson, Ruslan Lienkha, Victor Li, Jeff MacDonald, Joe Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, , Villanova University, Federal Reserve Bank of, GOP Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Yen flounders, dollar drifts ahead of c.bank bonanza
  + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The yen fell 0.1% to 147.76 per dollar and was kept pinned near last week's 10-month low of 147.95 per dollar. The euro meanwhile gave up some of its gains from the previous session and was last 0.12% lower at $1.0678. It had risen alongside euro zone government bond yields on Monday, following hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers that further rate increases were on the cards. In other currencies, sterling edged 0.04% higher to $1.2390, ahead of an interest rate decision from the Bank of England (BoE) also due this week.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kazuo Ueda, Rodrigo Catril, Erik Weisman, NAB's Catril, BoE, Rae Wee, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal, Wednesday, Bank of Japan's, National Australia Bank, NAB, Reserve Bank of Australia's, U.S, New Zealand, Fed, MFS Investment Management, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia
The Sydney Opera House Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Gallo Images | Brand X Pictures | Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific markets are mixed as traders look to minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia for its policy meeting on Sept. 5. The minutes will detail how the RBA came to hold its benchmark policy rate at 4.1%, the third straight month that it has done so. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slid 0.23% in early trade, while both South Korea's Kospi and Kosadaq were trading close to the flatline. Japan's Nikkei 225 slumped 0.76% upon its return from a public holiday, while the Topix saw a smaller loss of 0.16%.
Organizations: Sydney Opera House, Getty, Reserve Bank of Australia, Nikkei Locations: Sydney Opera House Sydney , New South Wales, Australia, Asia, Pacific
Bob van Dijk Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe immediate and mutually agreed departure of Naspers and Prosus CEO Bob van Dijk underscores a complicated few years for a firm seen riding on the coattails of its holdings in Chinese tech giant, Tencent . The South African Reserve Bank gave Naspers the greenlight to begin buying back more of its shares from Prosus. 'Getting rid' of the cross holdingPrior to the current structure, Naspers (headquartered in South Africa) owned a third of Chinese internet giant Tencent Holdings. Van Dijk oversaw the decision to split off its holding of Tencent and other tech holdings into Prosus in 2019. But that crossholding offered little value to investors with van Dijk telling Reuters at the time: "They [shareholders] said we don't like this cross holding, it creates complexity.
Persons: Bob van Dijk, Naspers, Koos, Van Dijk, Prosus, crossholding, van Dijk, We've, we're, Erwin Tu, Tu, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Bob van Dijk Bloomberg, Bloomberg, Getty, South, Naspers, South African Reserve Bank, Tencent Holdings, Johannesburg Stock Exchange, Euronext, Reuters, Citi, SoftBank Group Locations: Dutch, Prosus, South Africa, Johannesburg, Naspers
Hong Kong CNN —Australia’s new central bank chief, Michele Bullock, took the helm Monday after a firestorm of criticism over rising living costs engulfed the tenure of her predecessor. Philip Lowe, former governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, speaking in Canberra in August. “Raising interest rates is never popular, but I think given the circumstances, the Reserve Bank had to do something,” noted Oliver. Within the bank, Lowe also faced questions about the culture he’d fostered since taking over in 2016. Should prices fall more slowly than expected, the central bank would face similar pressure to raise rates, Oliver predicted.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Philip Lowe, Shane Oliver, , would’ve, wasn’t, Lowe, Oliver, Rohan Thomson, RBA, Nick McKim, ” McKim, “ It’s, ” Oliver, disempowered, ” Bullock, ” Lowe, — Hilary Whiteman Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Reserve Bank of Australia, AMP, CNN, Bloomberg, Getty, Reserve Bank Locations: Hong Kong, Australian, Canberra, Ukraine, Australia, United States, Europe
As a result, they’re almost sure to leave their key interest rate unchanged when their meeting ends Wednesday. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, said she thinks a “soft landing,” in which the Fed manages to curb inflation without causing a recession, remains possible. But she cautioned that inflation might stay higher for longer than the central bank expects. Or, she suggested, the cumulative effects of the Fed's 11 rate hikes could ultimately tip the economy into recession. “I expect we’ll need to hold rates at restrictive levels for some time,” said Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
Persons: they’re, Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, ” Sahm, “ They’re, , Christopher Waller, Powell, , They're, Jose Torres, Susan Collins, Lorie Logan, William English Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Wall Street, Fed, Fed's, Governors, CNBC, Interactive, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Dallas Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, , Yale School of Management Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Ukraine, U.S
Sept 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The main exception appears to be oil, which continues to forge new peaks for the year in a steady march towards $100 a barrel. Could the oil price spike feature in the raft of central bank policy decisions and outlooks this week? In Asia, that would be the central bank meetings in Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia on Thursday, and Japan on Friday. Tuesday's Asian and Pacific economic calendar is pretty light, with the Reserve Bank of Australia's last policy meeting minutes the main event.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Brent, South Korea's, Deepa Babington Organizations: U.S . Federal, Treasury, Bank of, South, U.S ., Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S ., Friday's, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Bank of Japan, India's, Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Malaysian, Malaysia
[1/3] Incoming RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivers the Sir Leslie Melville Public Lecture at the Australian National University in Canberra, Australia, August 29, 2023 in this handout image. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been on hold for three months after raising interest rates aggressively for more than a year. The tightening has slowed Australia's growth, but analysts think the economy could still achieve a soft landing. If Australia avoids recession and delivers a soft landing, history may judge outgoing Governor Philip Lowe more kindly. In the search to replace Bullock as deputy, Chalmers has indicated the government is looking at candidates inside and outside the central bank.
Persons: Michele Bullock, Leslie Melville, Tracey Nearmy, Bullock, it's, Cherelle Murphy, Philip Lowe, Lowe, Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Stephen Halmarick, Stella Qiu, William Mallard Organizations: Australian National University, ANU, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of Australia, EY Oceania, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Canberra, Australia, Handout, New Zealand, Germany, Europe's, COVID
Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.
Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's
The UAW began striking at factories that make only a few vehicles – Ford Broncos and Rangers, Jeep Wranglers, Chevrolet mid-size pickups and GMC vans. Car prices were rising long before the auto workers even raised the possibility of a strike. Prices are almost certain to rise even if the strike is settled quickly, because the auto makers' labor costs will increase. “They could double our wages and not raise car prices and still make billions of dollars in profit,” he said during an online presentation to union members this week. It's all enough to make many motorists consider avoiding the car lot and keeping their current car a while longer.
Persons: Stellantis, , Ivan Drury, isn’t, Garrett Nelson, ” Nelson, , we’re, Tesla, Drury, Kelley, Patrick Anderson, Shawn Fain, Edmunds Organizations: DALLAS, United Auto Workers, Dealers, General Motors, UAW, Detroit, Ford Broncos, Rangers, Jeep Wranglers, Chevrolet, GMC, Chevrolet Silverado, Tahoe, GMC Sierra, Ford, CFRA Research, GM, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, Consumers, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Anderson Economic Group, Stellantis, Locations: Edmunds, Mexico, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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