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☆ The Fed has the proof it wants that inflation is slowing, but the next move is still up in the air
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A week's worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. "We got two more months of good inflation data" since the last Fed meeting, Claudia Sahm, chief economist for New Century Advisors, said in a CNBC interview Friday. Futures markets for most of the past week had lasered in on a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, rate cut. The inflation data "on its own would have gotten us 25 next week, as it should, and will get us a whole string of cuts after that," she said. [Fed officials] need to kind of clean it up, do a 50 basis point cut and then be ready to do more."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, Sahm Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, Federal Reserve, Federal, New Century Advisors, CNBC, Fed Locations: Washington ,

☆ S&P 500 rallies back to old highs, setting up Fed meeting to be make or break moment
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The market's turn toward treating good economic news as positive for stocks is pictured here in a chart from Citi strategists, showing the three-month correlation between the S & P 500 and the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise index has turned sharply higher. The S & P 500's low for the week was Wednesday morning, right at the 5400 level where it previously hit a low a week ago Friday after a tepid employment report. Forward 12-month S & P 500 earnings forecasts continue to rise smartly, now approaching $270. But, thanks to the past two months of sideways churn, that's down from 21.7 when the S & P first hit its current level in July. And the rally last week could well have front-run any potential positive inference from the Fed's move next week.

Persons: Ally Financial, Ed Hyman, Loretta Mester, William Dudley, John Kolovos Organizations: Citi, Citi U.S, Fed, Ally, CPI, Wall Street, Financial Times, Treasury, National Association of Active Investment, American Association of

☆ Billionaire investor John Paulson says the Fed can 'move aggressively' on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Billionaire investor and hedge fund veteran John Paulson said Friday that he would like to see the Federal Reserve start big with its rate cuts. The central bankers seem to be deciding between a cut of 25 basis points or 50 basis points. One asset class that often rises when the Federal Reserve cuts rate is gold, and Paulson is a longtime bull on the yellow metal. Paulson is a veteran figure in the hedge fund world and is perhaps most famous for betting against the housing market ahead of the 2007 crash. Paulson announced in 2020 that he was converting his hedge fund into a family office.

Persons: John Paulson, Paulson, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Treasurys Organizations: Federal Reserve, Paulson, Co, Mines, U.S

☆ Dollar weak as traders add to wagers of big rate cut from Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While the Fed is all but certain to cut rates next week, uncertainty around whether it will go with a 25 basis point cut or 50 basis points has kept investors on the edge and weighed on the dollar. Analysts pointed to media reports from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal suggesting the Fed's decision would be a close call as one of the reasons for traders adding to wagers of a big rate cut next week. Higher U.S. jobless claims data released on Thursday and the Wall Street Journal article on the Fed's rate cut dilemma revived bets on a jumbo cut at the September meeting, according to Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC. Besides the Fed, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan hold policy meetings next week. "Risks remain that inflation may not return to target as easily as everyone, including the Fed, seems to expect."

Persons: Christopher Wong, Christine Lagarde, Ryan Brandham, Naoki Tamura, Sterling, BoE Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Wall, Traders, European Central Bank, Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Validus Risk Locations: North America

☆ Watch Friday's full episode of Fast Money — September 13, 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch Friday's full episode of Fast Money — September 13, 2024"Fast Money" is America's post-market show. Hosted by Melissa Lee and a roundtable of top traders, "Fast Money" breaks through the noise of the day, to bring you the actionable news that matters most to investors.

Persons: Melissa Lee

☆ The US will enter a mild recession as the economy deflates after its boost from unproductive stimulus cash, former Commerce Secretary says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US is moving toward a recession, as the economy is feeling the comedown after trillions of "unproductive" cash was pumped in during the pandemic, according to former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. AdvertisementBut most of the stimulus cash wasn't deployed productively, Ross said, pointing to Americans who "immediately spent" their checks in a wild shopping spree. Related storiesStrength in the labor market was also partly distorted by stimulus cash, he suggested. Hiring has steadily slowed over the past year, with the unemployment rate triggering one long-running recession indicator with a perfect track record. Most economists still agree that the economy remains on solid footing, given the rapid pace of growth and historically low unemployment rate.

Persons: —, Wilbur Ross, Trump, Ross Organizations: Service, Commerce, Bloomberg, Business, Conference, Investor

☆ Watch Friday's full episode of Mad Money with Jim Cramer — September 13, 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch Friday's full episode of Mad Money with Jim Cramer — September 13, 2024"Mad Money" host and former hedge fund manager, Jim Cramer, provides stock traders with all manner of investing advice.

Persons: Jim Cramer —, Jim Cramer

☆ The Fed coin flip: Traders still divided on how deep next week’s cut will be
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street is growing more divided on how much the Federal Reserve will move interest rates next week. In fact, the market's mixed outlook ahead of the central bank decision is more unsettled than any time since the Fed started pushing borrowing costs higher in early 2022. Investors are certain that the Fed will begin reducing interest rates next week from their current 5.25% to 5.50% range, but a sense of uncertainty lingers. We do not anticipate any dissents" from voting members of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee next week, Bank of America's Bhave added. "So if pricing stays where it is currently, it would be the first meeting in years where there's serious uncertainty about the rates decision."

Persons: Henry Allen, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, America's Bhave Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Committee, Bank, America's

☆ Stocks often drop in September — but many investors shouldn’t care
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Traders on the New York Stock Exchange floor on Sept. 9, 2024. Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesSeptember historically hasn't been kind to stock investors. September is the only month during that nearly century-long period in which investors experienced an average loss, according to Morningstar. Trying to time the market is a losing betAlistair Berg | Digitalvision | Getty ImagesInvestors holding their money in stocks for the long-term shouldn't bail, Yoder said. Don't put faith in market maximsSimilarly, investors shouldn't necessarily accept market maxims as truisms, experts said.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Morningstar, Abby Yoder, Yoder, Alistair Berg, Digitalvision, Edward McQuarrie, McQuarrie, couldn't, J.P Morgan Organizations: New York Stock, Getty, Morningstar Direct, Finance, Morgan Private Bank, Investors, Santa Clara University, Fidelity Investments, Federal Reserve, Investor, Mutual Locations: U.S, Wells, New York City, New York

☆ A big Fed meeting looms in the week ahead as economic concerns percolate
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve is set to meet Tuesday and Wednesday — and is is widely anticipated to make its first interest rate cut after embarking on a hiking campaign in March 2022. As it is, stocks are headed for a winning week ahead of the meeting. On Friday, the CME FedWatch tool showed markets were split how big the rate cut would be. Investors will also watch what Fed policymakers will signal in its summary of economy projections regarding future policy moves. He worries that stocks will rally heading into the central bank meeting, with investors possibly selling the news afterward.

Persons: It's, disinflation, Chadha, CNBC's, Dave Sekera, Giuseppe Sette, Sette, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Morningstar's Sekera, Bank Asset Management Group's Bill Northey, Mills, homebuilder Organizations: Federal, Deutsche Bank, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Morningstar, U.S, Bank Asset Management Group's, Olive, Darden, FedEx, Index, Retail, Manufacturing, Housing, Philadelphia Fed Locations: U.S, Olive Garden, NAHB

☆ CNBC Daily Open: All key data is in — and it's made the Fed's policy path more uncertain
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Last Friday, the August employment report showed the number of jobs added was lower than expected but higher than the previous month. Wednesday's CPI report showed the lowest 12-month inflation rate in two-and-a-half years. In short, the data hasn't cleared up whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points. They think there's a 57% chance of a 25 point cut and 43% of a 50 point one, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Persons: Stefani Reynolds, We've, Wednesday's, Jeff Cox, Pia Singh, Sarah Min Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, PPI Locations: Washington ,

☆ Gold rallies to record high on U.S. rate-cut optimism
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

One kilogram gold bars are displayed for a photograph at the YLG Bullion International headquarters in Thailand on January 13, 2016. Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Friday as the dollar weakened amid prospects of a U.S. interest rate cut next week, while palladium has gained 15% so far this week. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,565 per ounce, as of 0258 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,567.93 earlier in the session. The dollar fell to a one-week low, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Palladium climbed 0.16% to $1,048.06 and was headed for the best week since Dec. 11, 2023, fueled by export curb concerns.

Persons: Bullion, Tim Waterer, Vladimir Putin Organizations: KCM, Monetary Fund, Fed, West Locations: Thailand, U.S, Moscow

☆ 2-year Treasury yield slides as investors assess interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over four basis points to 3.6364%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than six basis points lower to 3.5824%. Attention began to turn to the Federal Reserve meeting next week at which the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates. Traders were last pricing in a 59% chance of a 12-basis-point rate cut and a 41% probability of a 50-basis-point reduction, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The Fed's meeting is set to begin Tuesday before concluding Wednesday, with the interest rate decision and a post-meeting press conference.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Traders, PPI, Dow

The Fed is expected to cut rates multiple times this year and in 2025, which means mortgage rates should continue decreasing. Will mortgage rates drop when the Fed cuts rates? If he or other Fed officials indicate that bigger rate cuts could be coming, mortgage rates may inch down. How Fed rate cuts affect mortgage ratesChanges to the federal funds rate don't directly impact mortgages, but mortgage rates tend to trend up when the Fed raises rates and go down when it lowers rates. The Fed could lower rates substantially by the time we reach the 2025 buying season, which means mortgage rates may be a lot lower, too.

Persons: Freddie Mac, Dan Burnett, Burnett, Jerome Powell, Powell, Fannie Mae, Scott Haymore Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve, Housing Survey, TD Bank

☆ Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Jason Gewirtz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on September 04, 2024 in New York City. Stocks @ Night is a daily newsletter delivered after hours, giving you a first look at tomorrow and last look at today. Sign up for free to receive it directly in your inbox. Here's what CNBC TV's producers were watching as the S&P 500 posted a fourth winning day and what's on the radar for the next session.

Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC Locations: New York City

☆ Dollar firm as inflation data douse bets for big Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar traded near a four-week high versus the euro on Thursday after signs of some stickiness in U.S. inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would avoid a super-sized interest rate cut next week. The dollar traded near a four-week high versus the euro on Thursday after signs of some stickiness in U.S. inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would avoid a super-sized interest rate cut next week. Meanwhile, a quarter-point rate reduction from the European Central Bank is widely expected later on Thursday, with investors anxious for hints on how soon the monetary authority will cut again. Early on Wednesday, Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa reinforced the central bank's tightening bias by saying low real rates leave room for further rate hikes. As a result, traders essentially priced out the chances of a 50-basis point rate cut on Sept. 18, paring the odds to 15% versus 85% probability for a 25-bp reduction.

Persons: Junko Nakagawa, Naoki Tamura, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, IG, ECB, Sterling, Swiss Locations: U.S

☆ Watch Thursday's full episode of Mad Money with Jim Cramer — September 12, 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch Thursday's full episode of Mad Money with Jim Cramer — September 12, 2024"Mad Money" host and former hedge fund manager, Jim Cramer, provides stock traders with all manner of investing advice.

Persons: Jim Cramer —, Jim Cramer

☆ New high yield funds are hitting the market as Fed prepares to cut interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The firm launched two high yield ETFs on Thursday, aimed at different sections of the high yield market: the Columbia U.S. High Yield ETF (NJNK) and Columbia Short Duration High Yield ETF (HYSD) . The state of high yield So far this year, high yield debt is outperforming the bond market as a whole. The biggest high yield index ETF, the iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) , has returned 7.2% year to date, compared with 4.9% for the firm's Core U.S. High yield when rates fall When market interest rates go down, the price of long-term bonds tends to rise. Some other recent examples include the BlackRock High Yield ETF (BRHY) and the AB Short Duration High Yield ETF (SYFI) .

Persons: Marc Zeitoun, Zeitoun, Dan DeYoung, Columbia Threadneedle, That's, DeYoung, NJNK, Kris Keller, Keller Organizations: Columbia, Columbia U.S, Federal Reserve, firm's, Aggregate Bond, Morningstar Locations: America, Treasurys, BlackRock

☆ Wednesday's comeback shows why stocks may be volatile the rest of September
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed as much as 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq, meanwhile, posted gains of 1.1% and 2.2%, respectively. The comeback came as Wall Street struggles to find its footing in September, with seasonal headwinds and worries over the economy putting pressure on stocks. The S & P 500 has already posted four 1% moves in September. Correction: The Dow on Wednesday closed 124.75 higher, while the S & P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.1% and 2.2%, respectively.

Persons: whiplash, Dow, Adam Crisafulli, Marco Iachini, Iachini, Steve Sosnick Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, Vital, Vanda Research, Interactive Brokers, Dow

☆ Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 notches fourth-straight winning session: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed Thursday evening as traders sought to shake off a sluggish September. S&P 500 futures traded near the flatline. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added just 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.02%. During Thursday's regular trading, investors snapped up shares of Big Tech names, including Nvidia , lifting the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite for a fourth consecutive day. The three major averages are also on track to post weekly gains, with the S&P 500 up 3.5% and the Nasdaq on track for a 5.3% jump.

Persons: Dan Greenhaus, Dow Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Nvidia, Dow, Salesforce, Microsoft, Federal, Management Locations: U.S

☆ Oil prices flat as lower demand signs outweigh U.S. hurricane impact
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Oil prices were flat on Thursday as concerns about lower demand erased the gains from the previous session spurred by Hurricane's Francine's impact on output in the U.S., the world's biggest crude producer. But with the storm set to eventually dissipate after making landfall, the oil market's attention again turned to lower demand. U.S. oil stockpiles rose across the board last week as crude imports grew and exports dipped, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. The data also showed gasoline demand fell to its lowest since May at the same time distillate fuel demand dropped, with refinery runs also declining. Earlier in the week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and also trimmed its expectation for next year, its second consecutive downward revision.

Persons: Hurricane's, Brent Organizations: Hurricane, Energy Information Administration, Organization of, Petroleum, International Energy, ANZ Research Locations: Nolan , Texas, U.S, U.S . Gulf, Mexico, Louisiana

☆ Watch Wednesday's full episode of Fast Money — September 12, 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch Wednesday's full episode of Fast Money — September 12, 2024"Fast Money" is America's post-market show. Hosted by Melissa Lee and a roundtable of top traders, "Fast Money" breaks through the noise of the day, to bring you the actionable news that matters most to investors.

Persons: Melissa Lee

Here's a rapid-fire update on all 32 stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, the portfolio we use for the CNBC Investing Club. AMD shares have caught a bid in recent days, but they're still cheap considering the growth of its AI processors. Broadcom : Investors who don't own any Broadcom yet should consider starting a position here, Jim said. Although it's tempting to offload shares, Jim said to stick with Honeywell for now because there's huge value in individual businesses like aerospace. There's little negative to say about this portfolio stock.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim, Apple, haven't, it's, that's, he'll, Bob Iger, Bob Chapek, Larry Ellison, Biogen, Eli Lilly, Lowe's, Vimal Kapur, We'd, Linde, Lilly, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, It's, Jensen Huang, Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, CrowdStrike, Palo, — we're, we're, Brian Niccol, Sands, Stanley Black, Decker, Wells, Charlie Scharf's, Jim Cramer, Angela Weiss Organizations: Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, CNBC, Club, Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Labs, AMD, Amazon, Web, Broadcom, VMWare, Federal Reserve, Costco Wholesale, Coterra, DuPont, New York Times, Oracle, GE Healthcare, GE, Honeywell, Linde, Microsoft, Nvidia, Republican, Palo Alto Networks, Palo, Procter & Gamble, Procter, Gamble, Constellation Brands, Modelo, Stanley, TJX, Marshalls, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty Locations: Nvidia's, San Francisco, China, Dover, United States, industrials, OpenAI, Palo Alto, Wells Fargo

☆ These 5 portfolio stocks crushed the volatile market since our August Monthly Meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

It's been a topsy-turvy stock market since the Club's August Monthly Meeting. These were two of our top performers since the August Monthly Meeting. The stock closed nearly 5% higher on the eve of the September Monthly Meeting. The S & P 500's health care sector is up 2.2% since the August Monthly Meeting, slightly outperforming the broad index's 1.8% rise in that timeframe. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: It's, We've, Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Jerome Powell, it's, DA Davidson, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Andy Jassy's, TJX, Jensen Huang, Abbott, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Brendan Mcdermid Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Investor, Federal, Procter, Gamble, Dover, Abbott Laboratories, TJX, Amazon, Micro Devices, Jackson, Bank of America, Telsey Advisory Group, JPMorgan, Oracle, Devices, AMD, Nvidia, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: seesaw, Wednesday's, U.S

☆ Gold inches higher as investors eye U.S. data for rate cues
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, with traders focusing on the upcoming U.S. economic data that may offer further insights into an expected reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate next week. Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, with traders focusing on the upcoming U.S. economic data that may offer further insights into an expected reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate next week. Data on Wednesday showed that U.S. consumer prices rose marginally in August, but underlying inflation showed some stickiness, which could discourage the Federal Reserve from delivering a half-point interest rate cut next week. CPI data showed no major inflation spikes, which is supporting gold prices to hold above $2,500 and suggesting no immediate changes to Fed policy, Wong added. Palladium climbed 1.3% to $1,021.84, its highest since July 8, following comments on export regulations from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Persons: Kelvin Wong, OANDA's, Price, Wong, Vladimir Putin, Putin Organizations: Asia Pacific, Traders, U.S, PPI, Reserve, West Locations: U.S, Moscow

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