Five states decided the last presidential race by flipping from Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020 – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The Democratic and Republican presidential nominees have each carried 20 states in every election since at least 2008.
Democrats did not demonstrate the capacity to threaten any of the GOP’s core 20 states, as Republicans did in Nevada.
A race with just Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona as true battlegrounds would begin with Democrats favored in states holding 260 Electoral College votes (including Washington, DC) and Republicans in states with 235.
After 2022, the list of genuinely competitive presidential states may be shrinking, but, if anything, that could increase the tension as the nation remains poised on the knife’s edge between two deeply entrenched, but increasingly antithetical, political coalitions.