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In a market outlook report, BMO Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski and his team projected the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) would end 2024 at 5,100, nearly 12% above Friday's closing level. Investors have various definitions of a bull market, although one common definition requires the S&P 500 to reach a new all-time high to confirm a bull market. Separately on Monday, strategists at Deutsche Bank also forecast the S&P 500 would end 2024 at 5,100. BMO sees S&P 500 earnings rising about 13.6% in 2024, a "significant rebound" from this year. "We also believe that volatility is likely to subside as macro-environment resiliency continues to surprise alongside falling inflation," the BMO strategists said.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Brian Belski, Lewis Krauskopf, Will Dunham Organizations: REUTERS, BMO Capital Markets, BMO Chief, BMO, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S
Deutsche Bank sees 12% upside to S&P 500 through 2024-end
  + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
The logo of Deutsche Bank is seen in Brussels, Belgium December 6, 2022. REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 27 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank on Monday forecast the S&P 500 (.SPX) to end next year 12% higher as it expects corporate earnings to remain resilient even if the United States experiences a mild and short recession. Deutsche Bank analysts expect the index to end 2024 at 5,100 points. Deutsche Bank's 2024-end S&P 500 target is 8.5% higher than the 4,700 median forecast of 33 strategists polled by Reuters. "If earnings growth continues to recover as we forecast, valuations will remain well supported around the top of the range as is typical on the pricing in of a pickup in earnings growth," the strategists said.
Persons: Yves Herman, Roshan Abraham, Rashmi Aich, Mrigank Organizations: Deutsche Bank, REUTERS, Deutsche, Reuters, Reserve, BofA, Research, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, United States, U.S, Bengaluru
Morning Bid: Stocks stall after VIX hits pre-COVID low
  + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. As U.S. markets return in earnest from the long Thanksgiving weekend, Friday's shortened session threw up a remarkable milestone. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered just under 4.50% first thing, about 10 basis points up from Wednesday's intraday low. Deutsche Bank on Monday said it expected a whopping 175bp of Fed rate cuts in 2024 as a mild recession there hits - leaving the policy rate at just 3.63% at yearend. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Wall, Friday's, Jerome Powell, MSCI's, Christine Lagarde, Bernadette Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Global, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Property, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, Chaoyang Public Security, Health, Beijing, Exchange, Reuters, Beijing Stock Exchange, Dallas Fed, . Treasury, Central Bank, Sciences, Share, Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, yearend, Asia, European, Gaza, Beijing
In an outlook report, the Deutsche Bank economists projected 175 basis points in rate cuts in 2024. With the Fed rate currently at 5.25%-5.5%, that would reduce the rate to 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year. At the same time, the bank expects that the economic weakness "eases inflationary pressures," Ryan said. DB expects an initial cut of 50 basis points at the Fed's June 2024 meeting, followed by 125 bps of additional cuts over the rest of the year. The U.S. economy so far has appeared to stave off predictions of a recession even as the Fed has hiked rates by 525 basis points since March 2022.
Persons: Brett Ryan, , , Ryan, Lewis Krauskopf, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal, Deutsche Bank, Traders, Reuters, DB, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York
Deutsche Bank expects the S & P 500 could climb more than 11% to a record next year — and said its base case seems "conservative." The investment bank set its 2024 year-end S & P 500 target at 5,100, or more than 11% above where the broader index closed Friday at 4,559.34. In its bull case, Deutsche Bank expects the S & P 500 could even climb to 5,500, or more than 20% above where the benchmark closed last. "We note that the S & P 500 has been in a clear trend up channel since the [Great Financial Crisis]. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin expects the S & P 500 will chop around and finally end next year at 4,700 .
Persons: , Jim Reid, Reid, America's Savita Subramanian, Lori Calvasina, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Bank, America's Locations: London, financials
Despite the seeming rush to shop, this Black Friday ushered in moderately higher promotions over last year and mixed in-store traffic, according to some Wall Street analysts. Black Friday winners Value-focused shopping destinations seemed to win big Friday, based on annual store checks from a slew of Wall Street shops. The Black Friday shopping extravaganza also ushered in some bullish sentiment toward Shopify . Black Friday losers Not every popular retailer seemed to kick off the holiday shopping period on a strong note. While Lululemon drove strong in-store traffic, helped in part by advertising use in Black Friday markdowns, Nike and Under Armour both showed higher promotions, said Piper Sandler's Abbie Zvejnieks.
Persons: Michael Lasser, Bradley Thomas, Thomas, Kohl's, Morgan Stanley, Alex Straton, Goldman Sachs, Kate McShane, JPMorgan's Matthew Boss, Piper Sandler's Korinne Wolfmeyer, Morgan Stanley's Keith Weiss, Bhavin Shah, shouldn't, Nordstrom, Straton, Lululemon, Armour, Piper Sandler's Abbie Zvejnieks, lululemon Organizations: Adobe Analytics, UBS, Walmart, KeyBanc Capital, Dick's Sporting Goods, Body, Deutsche, Eagle Outfitters, Nike Locations: U.S
New York CNN —Attorneys for Donald Trump told the court Monday that they plan to call the former president to the stand on December 11 as their last witness in the New York civil fraud trial. His son Eric Trump, also a defendant, is slated to testify on December 6, according to Trump attorney Chris Kise. This will be the former president and Eric Trump’s second trip to the witness stand as they were called by the New York attorney general’s office earlier this month. Trump Organization executive Patrick Birney is currently testifying for the defense. His testimony follows Trump Organization hotels Chief Operating Officer Mark Hawthorn, who had been on the stand for most of Monday.
Persons: Donald Trump, Eric Trump, Chris Kise, Eric Trump’s, Patrick Birney, Mark Hawthorn Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump, Trump Organization, Four Deutsche Bank Locations: New York
Here are Monday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Deutsche Bank reiterates Saia as buy Deutsche said the transports company has "earnings power." JMP downgrades Okta to market perform from market outperform JMP downgraded the stock after a recent security incident. "We downgrade our rating to Market Perform from Under Review (Market Outperform prior) on Okta, Inc. in the wake of the most recent security incident announced on October 20." Wells Fargo reiterates Dollar Tree as overweight Wells said it's standing by its overweight rating on the stock heading into earnings next week. Melius upgrades Carnival to buy from hold Melius said it's "hard to not become incrementally bullish" on the stock.
Persons: Saia, Key, Wells, DLTR, Raymond James downgrades Weyerhaeuser, Raymond James, Redburn, Bernstein, Tesla, underperform Bernstein, Needham, Aston Martin, Jefferies, Pulte, Melius Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Bloom Energy, Clean Tech, Citi, New, Ulta Citi, Inc, Dominion, Weyerhaeuser, UBS, Waste Management, Novartis, EV, Pulte Group, RBC, GE Healthcare, Nvidia
"The oil suite remains rather stunned after the cancellation of Saudi Sunday," wrote John Evans of PVM Oil Associates in a note Friday. U.S. crude recovered most of Wednesday's intraday losses and trading has been relatively muted amid the Thanksgiving holiday with investors trying to digest the recent volatility. Europe demand headache for OPEC With the meeting delayed, investors are left with more bearish news on the demand side. "The likelihood of new demand coming from the continent is tantamount to zero giving more reason to be wary for oil investors and another layer of headache for OPEC," Evans wrote. "It's undermining the Saudi efforts to get the price really back to $100 a barrel plus," Kilduff told CNBC's " Power Lunch " on Wednesday.
Persons: John Evans, Brent, Evans, John Kilduff, PVM's Evans, Kilduff, CNBC's, PVM, Goldman Sachs, Michael Hsueh, Russia's Organizations: Organization of Petroleum, , PVM Oil Associates, West Texas Intermediate, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America Locations: China, Europe, Angola, Nigeria, Saudi, Riyadh, U.S, Russia, Moscow, Saudi Arabia
Fox News did not report that Deutsche Bank filed a foreclosure notice on former U.S. President Donald Trump’s Florida residence, Mar-a-Lago, in November 2023. The post reads: “BREAKING FOX NEWS Deutsche Bank has filed a notice to foreclose on Mar A Lago. A spokesperson for Deutsche Bank declined to comment. The account that first posted the claim describes itself as a parody account. A spokesperson for Fox News said that the claim is “fake.”This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Lago, Trump, , , Read Organizations: Fox, Deutsche Bank, FOX, Trump, Facebook, Fox News, Reuters, Deutsche Bank's, Thomson Locations: Donald Trump’s Florida, Mar, New York
Barclays Bank logo is seen in this illustration taken March 12, 2023. As part of these 1,500 to 2,000 jobs could be cut if implemented in full, the person said. Barclays' 1 billion pound cost saving target would represent about 7% of the bank's underlying annual operating expenses of 15 billion pounds in 2022. Meanwhile, annual staff costs at BX have risen to 2 billion pounds, from 1.8 billion pounds. Barclays is "evaluating material structural cost actions", Venkat said when it reported disappointing third quarter results in October.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, C.S, Venkatakrishnan, Venkat, Sinead Cruise, Lawrence White, Alexander Smith Organizations: Barclays Bank, REUTERS, Barclays, Services, Chief, Barclays Execution Services, BX, Deutsche Bank, BNP, UBS, Reuters, Boston Consulting Group, Thomson Locations: British
Germany financial sector facing dark clouds, Bundesbank warns
  + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsCompanies Deutsche Bundesbank FollowFRANKFURT, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Germany's financial firms may be well capitalised now but face challenges ranging from rising interest expenditure and weak loan demand to unrealised losses, Bundesbank Vice President Claudia Buch said on Wednesday. "Almost two-thirds of savings banks and credit cooperatives now have unrealised losses throughout their banking book, which comprises loans as well as securities," Buch said in a statement. Buch warned that interest rate expenditure was likely to rise in the future, which will compress margins and weigh on earnings. Banks will struggle to offset higher costs via rising loan volumes since corporate demand is weak amid a recessionary environment. "Even in adverse scenarios, financial institutions should have sufficient levels of capital and liquidity to be able to absorb shocks on their own," Buch added.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Claudia Buch, Buch, Banks, Balazs Koranyi, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT
A number of companies have recently demanded that antitrust enforcers pay default interest on fines in annulled antitrust cases. Deutsche Telekom challenged the fine at the Luxembourg-based General Court, Europe's second highest, which cut it to 19 million euros in 2018, forcing the EU competition enforcer to repay the difference. Deutsche Telekom returned to the court after the EU competition enforcer refused to pay interest for the period between the payment and the reimbursement and got judges to back its fight. The Commission then appealed to the Luxembourg-based EU Court of Justice (CJEU). The case is C‑221/22 P European Commission v Deutsche Telekom AG.
Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Deutsche, Anthony Michael Collins, refunding, Foo Yun Chee, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Deutsche Telekom, ITS, REUTERS, Companies Deutsche Telekom AG, Intel, Deutsche, European Commission, EU, Court of Justice, Deutsche Telekom AG, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, Slovakia, Luxembourg
The price of a 10-person Thanksgiving dinner at home is $61.17 this year. AdvertisementInflation-weary Americans are finally getting some relief with the price of Thanksgiving dinner down 4.5% from last year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, or AFBF. The average cost of a Thanksgiving meal at home for 10 persons is $61.17 this year as compared to $64.05 last year. A 16-pound frozen whole turkey, which costs $27.35 on average, accounted for 45% of the price of Thanksgiving dinner this year. The fall in the price of a Thanksgiving dinner comes after a cooling in US inflation amid relentless interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Persons: , that's, Jim Reid, Reid Organizations: Service, American Farm Bureau Federation, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Business Locations: Puerto Rico
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded. By driving short-term dollar cash rates and U.S. bond yields higher over the past 20 months, the Fed basically sucked cash from the wider investment world and supercharged dollar exchange rates everywhere. Now that it looks done, the buck's finally on the back foot - plumbing levels not seen since August. With implied volatility directionally biased, the dollar index and the CVIX are typically well correlated and both peaked in tandem in same month of September last year.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Deutsche Bank's, Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, BOJ, BOE, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornbach, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Deutsche, U.S, ING, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England, ECB, UBS Global Wealth, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Federal, Japan, U.S
BANGKOK (AP) — Shares slipped in Asia on Wednesday, tracking a decline on Wall Street a day after stocks there hit their highest level since the start of August. Troubled property developer Sunac China Holding's shares rose 2.3% as state media reported it had completed a restructuring of its $90 billion in debts. Retailers were mixed after several reported their earnings for the latest quarter and, more importantly, their forecasts for the upcoming holiday shopping season. Lowe’s sank 3.1% despite reporting better profit for the latest quarter. Best Buy dipped 0.7% after likewise beating analysts’ expectations for profit in the latest quarter but falling short on revenue and cutting its forecast for the full year.
Persons: OpenAI's, Sam Altman, Altman, Satya Nadella, OpenAI, , , Bret Taylor, Larry Summers, Adam D’Angelo, Australia's, Stocks, Brent Organizations: Microsoft, U.S ., Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Nikkei, China, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Lowe’s, Dick’s, Goods, Federal, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Treasury, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S Locations: BANGKOK, Asia, Tokyo, Mumbai, U.S, Japan, OpenAI, Francisco, Adam D’Angelo ., Seoul, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Taiwan, Thailand
There are now more central banks cutting rates than those hiking rates, per a Deutsche Bank analysis. For the first time since January 2021, there are more central banks cutting rates than those hiking them, according to an analysis by Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank, MarketWatch reported on Tuesday. The trend started last month, with 10 central banks cutting rates — outnumbering those that hiked rates in the same time period, according to Reid's analysis of 81 central banks around the world. The trend continued this month with five central banks — including include those in Brazil and Peru — cutting rates so far. AdvertisementWhile major central banks like the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are keeping rates steady right now, there are bets that they, too, will start to hike rates in the months ahead.
Persons: , Jim Reid, Reid, That's Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, MarketWatch, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, UBS Locations: Brazil, Peru, Swiss
However, he added, they remain more upbeat compared with last holiday season and should spend more on gifts this year. According to FactSet, analysts anticipate there could be upside of more than 20% ahead, based on average price targets. The e-commerce giant is JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth's top pick for the holiday season. "We project US e-comm penetration at 23.4% of adj retail sales this holiday season, +90bps above the 22.5% in 2022," he said. "We think beauty has the potential to be a relevant gifting solution for cash-strapped consumers during the upcoming Holiday season," he said.
Persons: Chad Lusk, Alvarez, Lusk, Martis, LSEG, Inna Kuznetsova, Doug Anmuth's, Doug McMillon, Krisztina Katai, Katai, Michael Lasser, Ulta, Lasser, ToolsGroup's Kuznetsova, Marsal's Lusk, Michael Bloom Organizations: Shoppers, CNBC, Walmart, Target, Retailers, Centric Market Intelligence, Amazon, LSEG, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Costco, UBS, Fed, Black Locations: Lusk, Ulta, Wayfair, Williams, Sonoma
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDeutsche Bank discusses key questions ahead of UK's Autumn StatementSanjay Raja of Deutsche Bank says "the market's getting a sense that this could be a bit of a blockbuster event."
Persons: Sanjay Organizations: Deutsche Bank
The Nasdaq boasted its highest closing level since July 31 while the S&P 500 registered its highest close since Aug. 1. Its biggest boost came from Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares which touched a record high and ended up 2%. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) ended less than 1% below its 2023 closing peak reached in late July. Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 78 new highs and 90 new lows.
Persons: Bristol Myers, Satya Nadella, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, Bruce Zaro, Dow, Brendan McDermid, Germany's Bayer, decliners, Sinéad Carew, Amruta, Maju Samuel, Pooja Desai, Richard Chang Organizations: Microsoft, Bristol, Dow, Nasdaq, Nasdaq's, Nvidia, Apple, Granite Wealth Management, Dow Jones, Federal, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Graphics, Traders, Bristol Myers Squibb, Sunday, Boeing, Deutsche Bank, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Providence , Rhode Island, New York City, U.S, Thursday's U.S, New York
Fossil fuel stocks have boomed (.dMIWO0OG00PUS) since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent fossil fuel prices soaring, leaving the performance of environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds lagging. Pure-play renewable energy stocks such as Orsted (ORSTED.CO) and First Solar (FSLR.O) have also fallen sharply this year as higher interest rates and inflationary pressures squeeze profitability. European oil and gas companies including BP (BP.L) and Shell (SHEL.L) have increased renewable energy investment, although they are expanding production of dirtier energy too. Sustainability-minded investors, Müller said, needed more disclosures from firms about their plans for shifting to lower-carbon models, and regulatory clarity on labelling transition-focused funds. Morningstar estimates that 45% of funds have exposure to traditional energy, totalling 7 billion euros ($7.6 billion).
Persons: Markus Müller, Müller, Tommy Reggiori Wilkes, Susan Fenton Organizations: Deutsche Bank's Private Bank, Reuters, BP, Shell, ISR, Morningstar, Investors, Deutsche, Investment Office, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, France, Europe
LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Deutsche Boerse's (DB1Gn.DE) derivatives arm said on Tuesday that it has been building up volume in its Euribor futures contract in Frankfurt as the European Union vies with London for the multi-billion-euro market post Brexit. The EU wants to significantly relocate the clearing of Euribor futures and euro-denominated interest rate swaps (IRS) out of London, which is now largely cut off from the bloc's financial market and rules since its 2020 exit from the EU. The market had previously been dominated by U.S. rival ICE (ICE.N), with its operations based in London. It is likely that in the initial phase there will be no mandatory minimum clearing volume set for an account, but this could change if not enough clearing shifts. London Stock Exchange Group's (LSEG.L) LCH dominates clearing of euro IRS, a market in which Eurex is also slowly building up clearing volume, and which is being targeted by the Madrid Exchange too.
Persons: Matthias Graulich, it's, Graulich, David Schwimmer, Huw Jones, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Deutsche, European, EU, U.S, ICE, Reuters, London, Exchange, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, London, EU, Madrid, Brussels
Trump attorney Alina Habba motioned to a court officer to bring him a box of tissues. At one point while reviewing his own handwritten notes, McConney acknowledged his memory was “incorrect” about a specific disclosure on Trump’s statement. Amer showed the court handwritten notations from McConney on 2021 financial statement drafts. Among the 2021 notes, the former controller wrote that Eric Trump needed to review the footnotes for the section on club facilities. On another page McConney wrote that Eric and his brother Donald Trump Jr, both defendants in the case, should review the statements.
Persons: Jeff McConney, , ” McConney, Jesus Suarez, Donald Trump, McConney, Alina Habba motioned, Arthur Engoron, , wouldn’t, he’s, Andrew Amer, Mazars, Donald Bender, Amer, Patrick Birney, Eric Trump, Eric, Donald Trump Jr, , Mark Hawthorn Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump Organization, Trump Org, Trump, Trump Hotels, Deutsche Bank Locations: New York
The deadline to submit takeover bids ends on Tuesday, and the sources told Reuters Jindal had decided against bidding after evaluating the airline's financial statements. "The EoI was largely to check the valuation of the airline and get access to the company's data," said one of the sources. Jindal Power and Go First's resolution professional did not reply to emails seeking comment. The Central Bank of India (CBI.NS), Bank of Baroda (BOB.NS), IDBI Bank (IDBI.NS) and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) are among the top creditors to the airline. Both bankers said the liquidation of the airline was now the most likely option as there were no serious bidders.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, India's, Reuters Jindal, Jindal, Banks, Siddhi Nayak, Sarita Chaganti Singh, Miral Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, India's Jindal Power Ltd, Reuters, Jindal Power, Bankers, Central Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, IDBI Bank, Deutsche Bank, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: Shivaji, Mumbai, India, Rights MUMBAI, Bank, BOB.NS, Delhi
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