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Let's look at what the the S & P 500's first half taught us about the chances for more gains in the second half. From Q1 1995 through Q2 1998, the S & P 500 was up 14 straight quarters. Below are four important factors we're continuing to watch closely into the year's second half. 116 of them are up more than the S & P 500 (+14.8%) through July 1 st , 2024. Good closes The S & P 500 has closed above its intra-day mid-point 77/125 trading days through Monday.
Persons: We've, That's, they'll, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Investors deliberating whether the stock rally can continue in the second half of 2024 should keep an eye on the 200-day moving average, according to Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at Bank of America Securities. The indicator, which is used by chart analysts to determine long-term trends, has been positive during the first six months of the year — as the S & P 500 surged 15% to record levels. The broad market index did not have a single daily close below its 200-day moving average in the first half. However, if the S & P 500 falls below its 200-day moving average in the second half of 2024, that will mean weaker returns, the technician said. "[This] scenario shows average and median returns of 0.60% (SPX 5490) and 2.43% (SPX 5590), respectively," the technician said.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Stocks, Donald Trump Organizations: Bank of America Securities, U.S, Federal Reserve
Read previewAfter Big Tech's meteoric rise in the stock market, valuations may be coming back down to earth. Elevated Big Tech valuationsThe stock market is incredibly narrow, with just a few mega-cap tech stocks driving the market rally. Overall, the tech sector has risen by roughly 40% since November 2023. AdvertisementTruistAccording to Lerner, tech valuations are overheating in the short term, fueled by investor optimism. The tech sector's forward P/E has increased 19% just since May 1st of this year, jumping from 26x to 31x.
Persons: , Keith Lerner, Lerner Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Apple, Google, Business, Utilities, P Telecom, US Telecommunications ETF, Vanguard Utilities Index Fund
Dimitar Dilkoff | Afp | Getty ImagesFrench stocks staged a relief rally early Monday after results from the first round of the nation's snap election raised expectations of a hung parliament. The far-right National Rally party and its allies won 33.1% of the vote, the left-wing NFP alliance was second with 28% and Macron's coalition secured 20%, France's Interior Ministry said Monday. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon CAC 40 index. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Euro/U.S. National Rally is hoping it will be the party's 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella.
Persons: Jordan Bardella, Gabriel Attal, Manuel Bompard, Dimitar Dilkoff, Sebastian Paris Horvitz, CNBC's, Matthew Ryan, , Emmanuel Macron, Macron, Horvitz Organizations: Rassemblement National, France's, France, TF1, Afp, Getty, NFP, La Banque Postale Asset Management, Citi, National, U.S ., National Assembly, Locations: London, France, Europe
In a few days, bankrupt Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange Mt. Disbursements will be in a mix of bitcoin and bitcoin cash, an early offshoot of the original cryptocurrency. Gox — short for "Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange" — was once the largest spot bitcoin exchange globally, claiming to handle around 80% of all global dollar trades for bitcoin. Gox users would likely translate to huge sales in bitcoin as investors look to lock in gains. Vijay Ayyar, head of consumer growth for Asia-Pacific at crypto exchange Gemini, said that the overall impact of the Mt.
Persons: Omer Taha Cetin, that's, Disbursements, bitcoin, Gox, , John Glover, Glover, James Butterfill, bitcoin's, Gemini, Lennix Lai, Butterfill, Bitcoin, Jacob Joseph, Joseph, Alex Thorn, Thorn, Vijay Ayyar, Gox disbursement, Ayyar Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, CNBC, bitcoin, Barclays, CoinShares, Gemini, JPMorgan, Arkham Intelligence, Analysts, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Federal Reserve Locations: Tokyo, Gox, Mt, bitcoin, Asia, Pacific
"In contrast, current valuation extremes imply potential downside risk for the S&P 500 on the order of 50-70% over the completion of this cycle." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4,200, while more extreme forecasts include Jeremy Grantham's estimate in the low 3,000s. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: , Jonathan Golub, Count John Hussman, Hussman, Hussman's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Jeremy Grantham's Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, Hussman Investment Trust, New York Stock Exchange, Investor Intelligence
Bitcoin's blues could linger throughout July, but investors are still optimistic about the cryptocurrency in the second half of the year. July is usually a strong month for bitcoin, which has finished higher for the month in seven of the last 11 years, according to CoinGlass. "There are always other known potential sources of bitcoin supply from government for example, but it's always uncertain when that's coming to market. This week, the crypto market was startled when the U.S. and German governments sent large amounts of previously seized bitcoin to exchanges, according to CryptoQuant. Marion Laboure, senior strategist at Deutsche Bank Research, said growing demand for crypto ETFs will help keep bitcoin's price "elevated" in the months ahead.
Persons: bitcoin, Zach Pandl, it's, JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Pandl, Trump, Marion Laboure, 21Shares, Michael Bloom Organizations: Metrics, Federal, U.S ., Deutsche Bank Research, Solana Locations: U.S, Mt
Beryl is first hurricane of 2024 Atlantic season
  + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Eric Zerkel | Sara Tonks | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
CNN —Beryl is the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with stronger gusts, according to a 5 p.m. EST update from the National Hurricane Center. That this formed so early in the season – and in this part of the Atlantic – is a sign of the hyperactive hurricane season to come, according to research from Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert and research scientist at Colorado State University. Normally, ocean temperatures aren’t warm enough in this region in June and July to help tropical systems thrive. That’s hardly the case this year, and one of the reasons behind record-high hurricane season forecasts over the past few months. Both have low odds of developing over the next week, but given the unusual early season action and favorable ocean temperatures, they will have to be watched closely.
Persons: Beryl, St Lucia, Vincent, Philip Klotzbach, Phil Klotzbach, “ Beryl, ” Dr, Mike Brennan, CNN’s Fredricka Whitfield, ” Brennan, , , El Niño, Wilfred Abrahams, Saint Vincent, Ralph Gonsalves, ” Gonsalves, Saint Lucia, Philip J, Pierre Organizations: CNN, National Hurricane Center, Lesser, St, Colorado State University, National Oceanic, Hurricane Center, NHC, Home Affairs, National Disaster Management Agency Locations: Barbados, Windward, Caribbean, Islands, St, Grenadines, Grenada, Martinique, Tobago, Mexico Gulf, Lesser, El, Mexico, “ Kingstown, , Saint
But other current employees are dissatisfied with where the strategy shift has left them. In January 2023, Pfizer forecast a steep drop in annual revenue, to between $67 billion and $71 billion. Pfizer's 2023 revenue ultimately came in at $58.5 billion, including $11.22 billion from its Covid vaccine and $1.28 billion from Paxlovid. Faith in executive leadership also plunged among some workers, according to most of the current and former employees who spoke with CNBC. Some current workers said that hasn't appeared to change after the town hall on May 2.
Persons: Albert Bourla, Wall, they're, Bourla, I'm, drugmaker Seagen, Irfan Khan, hasn't, Pfizer, renegotiating, John Thys, Payal Sahni Becher, Becher, Kena, Mike McDermott, Bourla's Organizations: Corbis, Getty, Pfizer, Wall, CNBC, Los Angeles Times, Moderna, Centers for Disease Control, U.S ., GSK, Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer wasn't, . Biotech, Companies, Biotech, BioNtech, Reuters, Human, View Press, Global, APEC, Summit, Tech, Google Locations: U.S, Covid, Eagle Rock , California, Durham , North Carolina, Puurs, Belgium, New York City, Peapack , New Jersey, Kena
The third quarter starts on Monday with corporate earnings trends largely intact, but showing early signs of trouble in tech land. The good news: for the big-cap tech companies that are truly dominating the market ( Apple , Microsoft , Alphabet , Nvidia , etc.) Still no recession, in the economy or in earnings So far, we have a deceleration in big-cap tech earnings and clear signs the consumer wants lower prices. Earnings trends for tech may still be rising (even if it is decelerating), but the rest of the market is generally flattish on earnings. Earnings: rising Positive Tech earnings: rising but decelerating Negative Job growth: strong but moderating Positive Interest rates: moderating Positive Inflation: moderating Positive Consumer: increasingly cautious Negative
Persons: Jensen, Nick Raich, it's, Raich, Lori Calvasina, We've, I've, you've, Levi Strauss, General Mills, Tim Wentworth, Taco Bell, Mills Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Big, Meta, Jensen Huang's, Scout, U.S, Equity, RBC Capital Markets, CNBC, Nike, Walgreens, Micron, FedEx, General, . Companies, Southwest Airlines, Pool Corp, Urban Outfitters, Yum Brands
Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Powell Industries' year-to-date stock performance. Powell Industries : "Another company that does processes and packaging for electricity and distribution...All these companies are on fire, electrical companies, and this is a good one." Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon DoubleVerify's year-to-date stock performance. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Ares Capital Corporation's year-to-date stock performance. Ares Capital Corporation : "This is a really interesting situation...I have no idea what loans they have...what's inside that company, so I cannot recommend it, even though it has a good yield.
Persons: Capital Organizations: Powell Industries, Ares Capital Corporation
Jeff Greenberg | Universal Images Group | Getty ImagesIn a lyric on her latest album, Beyoncé sings "denim on denim, on denim, on denim." Levi Strauss executives are ecstatic. Western wear is booming as consumers opt for top-to-bottom denim looks, the iconic, 171-year-old clothing maker said on Wednesday. Sales of denim skirts, jumpsuits and dresses all at least doubled in the latest quarter, Gass said. On the other hand, Levi Strauss earned 16 cents per share, excluding items, ahead of the 11-cent average estimate by analysts.
Persons: LEVI, Jeff Greenberg, Beyoncé, Levi Strauss, jean, Michelle Gass, Levi's, Carter, Louis Vuitton, Taylor, Gass, Levi, " Gass, Wall, Lee Organizations: Orlando Vineland, Universal, Getty, LSEG, CNBC, Dockers, Kontoor Brands Locations: Florida, Levi's, California, Kohl's
Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty ImagesThe Japanese yen weakened to fresh 38-year lows on Friday, crossing the 161 mark against the dollar for the first time since 1986 and reaching a high of 161.27, according to LSEG data. The yen has been steadily deprecating since the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy and scrapped its yield curve control policy in March. Following the move, the currency crossed the 150 mark against the dollar, reaching 160 in late April before the country's finance ministry intervened. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconJapan's finance ministry confirmed that it intervened between April 26 to May 29 to the tune of 9.7885 trillion yen ($62.25 billion). The benchmark U.S. federal funds rate stands at 5.25% to 5.5%, while the Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate is at 0%-0.1%.
Persons: Dong Chen, Dong Organizations: Currency Museum, Bank of Japan's Institute for Monetary, Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, Japan Ministry of Finance, U.S, Bank Locations: Asia, Swiss, Japan
Persistent weakness in the yen is raising concerns about the potential for a resurgence in cost-push inflation, likely weighing on private consumption. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe Japanese yen hit a near-38 year low against the U.S. dollar late Wednesday, raising expectations that authorities could intervene in currency markets again. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconThe last time the yen crossed the 160 level, the currency subsequently strengthened sharply during the trading session, prompting analysts to speculate about an intervention. Japan's Ministry of Finance later confirmed the intervention in May, saying that it had spent 9.7885 trillion yen ($62.25 billion) on currency intervention between April 26 and May 29, according to a Google-translated statement. That was the first time that the Japanese government has undertaken such a market measure since October 2022, according to ministry records.
Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bloomberg, Getty, U.S ., Japan's Ministry of Finance Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Cramer's Lightning Round: 'Hold on to' Marvell Technology
  + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Palantir's year-to-date stock performance. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon GameStop's year-to-date stock performance. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Recursion Pharmaceuticals' year-to-date stock performance. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon IonQ's year-to-date stock performance. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Marvell Technology's year-to-date stock performance.
Persons: Marvell Organizations: GameStop, Marvell Technology
Is Iga Swiatek going to make her move on grass and further cement her position as the player to beat across the WTA? Probably not, since that meniscus belongs to one Novak Djokovic, the seven-time Wimbledon champion and the world’s best grass-court player. Then he showed up in London this week and started testing out the knee with practice sessions on the grass. Charlie EccleshareWill Swiatek win her first Wimbledon title? She’s never been past the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and her game isn’t a natural fit on the grass.
Persons: Novak, Matt Futterman, Charlie Eccleshare, Will Novak Djokovic, Novak Djokovic, Djokovic, Casper Ruud, Clive Brunskill, Carlos Alcaraz, Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Felix Auger, Frenchman Arthur Fils, Andy Murray’s, Murray, Jack Draper, Shaun Botterill, Tim Henman’s, Draper, Charlie Eccleshare Will Swiatek, Iga, She’s, Roland Garros, Emma Raducanu, Katie Boulter, Harriet Dart, it’s Boulter, Sloane Stephens, Jessica Pegula, don’t, Boulter, Raducanu, Stephens, Jonathan Nackstrand, Hannah Klugman, Agassi, Serena, Venus Williams, It’s, Coco Gauff, Aryna, she’s, Swiatek, Gauff, Daniel Leal, Pegula, Marketa Vondrousova, Danielle Collins, Tommy Paul, Paul, Sebastian Korda, Korda, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, there’s, Sally Bolton, John Walton, , Wimbledon Charlie Eccleshare Will, Princess Catherine of Wales, Roger Federer, Rob Newell, CameraSport, Sebastian Bozon, Greece’s Stefanos Tsitsipas, Murray didn’t, , Jelena Ostapenko, , Glyn Kirk Organizations: Wimbledon, WTA, Olympic Games, Court, Djokovic, England Club, British, Queen’s, London, Paris, Rothesay International, Nottingham, Eastbourne, Getty, Orange, Sampras, Wimbledon —, Swiatek, Alycia Parks, Queen’s Club, All England, U.S, All England Club, U.S ., Athletic Locations: Paris, London, Canada, SW19, Stuttgart, Warsaw, Rothesay, Eastbourne, Britain, Nottingham, Great Britain, AFP, Alycia Parks, British, Florida, American, Australia, France, Berlin, Wimbleson, Alycia, Israel, Palestine, there’s
A two-part release schedule sidelined Colin and Penelope's story for other character arcsLuke Newton as Colin Bridgerton and Nicola Coughlan as Penelope Featherington on season three, episode two of "Bridgerton." "I'm so disappointed honestly by 'Bridgerton' season three, part two," TikToker @lightfrommars said in one video that's been viewed over 770,000 times. Complaints from 'Bridgerton' fans could affect the show — though it's probably safe for nowDoes this spell doom for the Bridgertons? "Bridgerton" season three also topped Nielsen's streaming chart, with 2.19 billion viewing minutes. AdvertisementSo no matter how mad the "Bridgerton" fans are — and how much some factions may insist they're not watching anymore — I'd put my money on the romantic drama's continuation.
Persons: , Colin Bridgerton, Luke Newton, Penelope Featherington, Nicola Coughlan, Jess Brownell, Chris Van Dusen, Francesca Bridgerton's, Hannah Dodd, Julia Quinn, Phoebe Dynevor, Jean Page, Colin, Liam Daniel, Simon Basset, Daphne Bridgerton, Anthony Bridgerton, Jonathan Bailey, Kate Sharma's, Simone Ashley, Breadcrumbing Penelope, TikToker @lightfrommars, , John Stirling, Victor Alli, Benedict Bridgerton's, Luke Thompson, Lady Tilley Arnold, Hannah New, Anthony, Kate, Violet Bridgerton, Ruth Gemmell, Danbury's, Lord Anderson, Daniel Francis, it's, we've, Penelope, Bridgerton, Brownell, Eloise Bridgerton, Colin doesn't, he's miffed, Colin's, Polin, Kanthony, Tom Verica, TikToker notwildlin, Maia Douglas, Douglas, Coughlan, Francesca, Michaela Stirling, Michael Stirling, Marie Soledad, fatphobia, she's, Masali Baduza, Netflix There's, Michael, Abbie Mills, We're, Van Dusen, Jenna Ortega, they're, — I'd Organizations: Service, Netflix, Business, Instagram
The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have rallied during the second quarter and are currently within 1% of their record highs. "It's great to see S & P and Nasdaq make new highs, but clearly something is not right if key barometers for risk are rolling over," Ginsberg wrote. There doesn't even seem to be a consensus among the biggest names in the stock market. These latest signs of weakness are part of the long-standing worry about the lack of market breadth . RSP YTD mountain The equal-weight S & P 500 is headed for a losing second quarter.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Russell, Ginsberg, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Wolfe Research, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Big Tech, RSP, Bears
Poster of Christophe Versini for the Rassemblement National (National Rally) party, with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella on it, on June 24, 2024. Recent polling suggests the far-right Rassemblement National (RN, or National Rally) party, led by Jordan Bardella, could win the most seats in the National Assembly, followed by the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP, or New Popular Front). French bond yields — which move inversely to prices — have been relatively contained. Even then, he added, the spread of French bond yields over their German counterparts looked set to remain higher than before Macron called the election. There is little concern over France enacting its own "Frexit," he said, with even National Rally having moved away from actively proposing leaving the euro area or the European Union.
Persons: Christophe Versini, Jordan Bardella, Magali Cohen, Emmanuel Macron, Sunday's, Giorgia Meloni, Viraj Patel, Patel, Liz, Truss, Andrew Kenningham, Macron, Kenningham, François Mitterrand, Christian Keller, CNBC's, Keller Organizations: Rassemblement National, Afp, Getty, National Assembly, Societe Generale, BNP, Vanda Research, Capital Economics, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Barclays, European Union Locations: Germany, Italy, Europe, France, Britain
Shares of the company remain off by roughly 40% this year amid significant cash burn and slowdown in EV sales. Rivian on Thursday reconfirmed its 2024 guidance that included production of 57,000 vehicles and a path to positive gross profit during the fourth quarter, including regulatory credits. It also outlined longer-term growths, such as plans to achieve positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2027. Volkswagen is expected to use Rivian's electrical architecture and software stack for vehicles beginning in the second half of the decade, Scaringe said Tuesday. A provided image of Oliver Blume, CEO of Volkswagen Group and RJ Scaringe, founder and CEO of Rivian, as the companies announce joint venture plans on June 25, 2024.
Persons: RJ Scaringe, Rivian, Scaringe, Oliver Blume Organizations: Rivian Automotive, Volkswagen Group, Volkswagen
The iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF (IHE) is up 9% since July 2015, when it hit a fresh all-time high. All of the back-and-forth movement since 2015 has produced what could be a monstrous bullish pattern. But we're trying to capture a major breakout from an area that's done next to nothing in nearly a decade. INVA, on the other hand, bottomed in March 2023, and just recently broke out of a large inverse head & shoulders pattern. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: IHE, Eli Lilly, Johnson, JNJ, MRK, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: U.S . Pharmaceuticals, IHE, Merck, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S, LLY
Bitcoin is testing a key level once again after the cryptocurrency fell below $60,000 this week for the first time since May 3. "There's key support at $57,500, the 200-day average, down to $56,500, the May low — and a downside breach would be damaging." It is currently suffering from a lack of near-term catalysts, low demand for bitcoin exchange-traded funds and miners' selling of bitcoin. BTC.CM= 6M mountain Bitcoin this year If bitcoin fails to hold $57,000, Wald added, $49,000 would become its next key downside level. Until then, "I always side with trend, meaning I'd assume the rising 200-day average holds.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, Bitcoin, bitcoin, Wald, David Keller, bitcoin's, Keller, Tom Fitzpatrick, R.J, O'Brien Organizations: Metrics, NASDAQ
Apple and Alphabet pulled back to the support levels we highlighted and have since rallied strongly. As we can see, $400 served as a key support level three times early this year (the second black horizontal line). Here, we are again applying the polarity principle and using prior resistance as the new support level. We see that $166 has proven a key support level (the top black horizontal line) ever since that post-earnings breakout. Nvidia Potential entry points: $120, $110, and $100 Just below Tuesday's close, around $120, that's a battleground level (the top black horizontal line).
Persons: It's, we've, We're, it's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Big Tech, Club, Apple Intelligence, Developers, CNBC, NVIDIA, Publishing, Getty Locations: HANGZHOU, CHINA, Hangzhou city, Zhejiang province, China
Read previewAn internal Microsoft tracking tool has revealed which executives AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman is working with most during his first few months on the job. Microsoft in March hired Suleyman , the head of startup Inflection AI and a cofounder of AI pioneer DeepMind, to be CEO of a newly formed Microsoft AI group. The organization is responsible for consumer AI products such as Microsoft's Copilot AI chatbot and the Bing search engine. Kevin Scott, Microsoft chief technology officerKevin Scott MicrosoftKevin Scott is Microsoft's chief technology officer and executive vice president of AI. Caitlin McCabe, CEO chief of staffMcCabe is Satya Nadella's chief of staff.
Persons: , Mustafa Suleyman, Suleyman, Karén Simonyan, Yusuf Mehdi, Microsoft Nick Adams, Reuters Mehdi, Kevin Scott, Kevin Scott Microsoft Kevin Scott, He's, Scott, Kevin, Satya Nadella, Amy Hood, Phillip Faraone, Hood, Rajesh Jha, Jha wasn't, Jha, Caitlin McCabe, McCabe, Satya Nadella's, She's, Nadella, Jon Tinter, Chris Young, Tinter Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Business, Reuters, OpenAI
Apple 's commitment to privacy could soon pay off by giving it a leg up over its competitors, according to Rosenblatt. That's because Apple, unlike AI predecessors, has put privacy front and center as part of its AI marketing push and architecture," Crockett wrote. "Apple laid out what it called a Private Cloud Compute architecture that keeps personal information on personal devices, and does not allow non-permissioned release of that information to anyone else, including Apple and third party LLMs," he added. An additional advantage for Apple comes from its AI approach, which allows the firm some immunity from cost pressures at hyperscalers. Against this backdrop, Crockett sees the scales "tipping the AI risk/reward in favor of Apple."
Persons: Rosenblatt, Barton Crockett, Crockett, Michael Bloom Organizations: Apple, hyperscalers
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