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The US even reminded everyone just how influential the buck is when it effectively froze Russia out of the global financial system with sanctions last year. Becoming the issuer of the global reserve currency is about trust. The US has controlled the global reserve currency for 102 years — giving it a special status in the world economy. Still, given that the country controlling the global reserve currency holds that status of an average of 94 years, history seems to indicate it's high time for a successor. Why shouldn't the financial world resemble something closer to the mosaic of cultures, politics, and nations that exists today?
Persons: Chenzi Xu, there's, Xu, , Ron Temple, Gregory Brew, Eurasia's Brew, dollarizing, Stephen Jen, Jen, we've, Stanford's Xu, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Josh Lipsky, " Lipsky, It's, Alexander Wise, Jan Loeys, Loeys, dollarization, Wise, Lazard's Temple, isn't, Phil Rosen Organizations: Stanford, Federal, European Central Bank, People's Bank of China, Lazard, Publishing, Getty Images, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International Settlements, Eurasia Group, Sandman's, Eurizon, IMF, Atlantic Council, JPMorgan Locations: Russia, Israel, France, China, America, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Bolivia, Iraq, South Africa, Beijing
Investors may want to reduce international exposure right now and stick with the home court. "One of the highest predicting factors for [the] future performance of international stocks versus U.S stocks is what the U.S dollar does," Arthur told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week. "From 2011 to 2022, the dollar was in a straight bull market, so you were gonna lose in international equities no matter what you did." That's a perfect setup where we're going to be cutting rates before the rest of the world. That's where the catalysts will have to be to see value come back, to see international come back [and] to see emerging come back."
Persons: Kim Arthur, Arthur, CNBC's, Mike Akins, Akins, I'm Organizations: Main Management, U.S, Bank, Microsoft, Apple Locations: U.S
Brent crude futures fell $1.31, or 1.7%, to $80.05 a barrel by 11:18 a.m. EDT (1518 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.34, or 1.7%, to $75.55 a barrel. A stronger greenback reduces oil demand, making crude more expensive for investors holding other currencies. Oil prices remained on course for a weekly gain of more than 2%, after supply disruptions in Libya and Nigeria heightened concerns that the markets will tighten in coming months. Separately, Shell suspended loadings of Nigeria's Forcados crude oil owing to a potential leak at a terminal.
Persons: Brent, Dollar, John Kilduff, John Evans, Shariq Khan, Natalie Grover, Sudarshan, Katya Golubkova, David Evans, Mark Potter, Louise Heavens, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, Again, U.S, Shell, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Libya, Nigeria, Bengaluru, London, Singapore, Tokyo
Geopolitics won't diminish the dominance of the US dollar, the Atlantic Council's Carla Norrlöf wrote. Though sanctions have discouraged dollar reserves, they also may prompt them to grow. Meanwhile, talk of a rising multi-polar world order are confusing and imprecise. But, what often gets overlooked is that the conditions that prompted these sanctions can also induce a diversification into dollars, Norrlöf wrote. Even if these efforts were enough to crash the dollar's unipolar hold on trade, Norrlöf further points out that there is very little consensus on what would actually follow.
Persons: Carla Norrlöf, Norrlöf's, , Norrlöf Organizations: Service, Atlantic Council, Project Syndicate Locations: Wall, Silicon, Russia, China, Ukraine
Russia's foreign minister urged Southeast Asian countries to trade with Russia using local currencies. urged Southeast Asian countries to trade with Russia using local currencies. Even President Vladimir Putin championed the use of local currencies for trade in recent weeks. Russia's trade with Southeast Asia fell 4.4% in 2022 amid sweeping sanctions against Moscow. Russia's trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — a 10-country intergovernmental bloc — fell by 4.4% in 2022 from a year ago.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, it's, Sergey Lavrov, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, Phil Rosen, Lavrov, Kompas Organizations: Moscow, Service, Association of Southeast, Yale, Russia, Bank of International Locations: Russia, Southeast Asia, Wall, Silicon, Moscow, Indonesia, Nations, Ukraine, Russian, Indonesian, Europe
LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - An accelerating dollar slide could be a U.S. gift to its allies by helping them catch up with its impressive disinflation. A dollar slide of this size and speed has typically elicited yelps of pain from U.S. trading partners. Euro zone headline inflation - which peaked about one percentage point above and three months later than the U.S. equivalent last year - was still 2.5 points above it last month. The ECB will likely stay shy of peak Fed rates, but an expected move to 4.0% policy rates by year-end will involve two quarter point hikes after the Fed has stopped. A time-limited dollar drop now may be more benign than a simple reversion to a new 'currency war'.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: Reserve, Monetary, Sterling, Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB, Fed, Transatlantic, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, Britain, Swiss
US economic sanctions have spawned something of a global backlash, in the form of the dedollarization movement. This was anticipated as early as 2019, by an expert who warned the weaponization of the dollar could have serious consequences for the global economic system. Back in 2023, dedollarization is a thingFast forward to 2023, and some of the recent rumblings across the global currency and monetary landscape are strikingly in line with Sen's prognostications. All that could come at a huge cost to the global economy – and drive a "complete reversal of global economic integration," he wrote. The dollar's share of global reserves could slowly decline, but no alternatives exist that could completely displace the US currency, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last month.
Persons: Julius Sen, Donald Trump, Sen, prognostications, Emmanuel Macron, Elon Musk, , optimists, Paul Krugman, Janet Yellen, Putin Organizations: London School of Economics, Service, UN, SWIFT, Allianz, WTO, FX Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Brazil, Iran, Tehran, Russia, Ukraine, India, Europe
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Cooling U.S. inflation is accelerating a decline in the dollar, and risk assets around the world stand to benefit. Because the dollar is a linchpin of the global financial system, a wide range of assets stand to benefit if it continues falling. Raw materials, which are priced in dollars, become more affordable to foreign buyers when the dollar declines. "For markets, the weaker dollar and its underlying driver, weaker inflation, is a balm for everything, especially for assets outside the U.S.," said Alvise Marino, foreign exchange strategist at Credit Suisse. Reuters GraphicsIn the world of monetary policy, the dollar's decline may be a relief to some countries, as it removes the urgency for them to support their falling currencies.
Persons: Russell, Alvise Marino, Karl Schamotta, Paresh Upadhyaya, Upadhyaya, Kenneth Broux, Helen, pare, it's, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investment, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, Treasury, Fed, Colombian, Kazakhstan tenge, Uruguayan, Reuters Graphics, Traders, Generale, stoke, Monex USA, Thomson Locations: U.S, Polish, Corpay, Kazakhstan, Japan, Swedish
Wall Street's main stock indexes built on Wednesday's sharp gains after data showed that consumer prices rose modestly in June, registering the smallest annual increase in more than two years. Other data on Thursday showed that U.S. producer prices barely rose in June, U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly declined, and Chinese exports dropped. The dollar index slumped to its lowest level since April 2022 on Thursday, as the cooling U.S. inflation bolstered expectations the Fed will rates only once more in 2023, eroding the greenback's yield advantage over peers. The euro was up 0.86% to $1.122, and the Japanese yen strengthened 0.37% versus the greenback at 137.99 per dollar. Oil prices traded near the highest levels in two months on the soft U.S. dollar.
Persons: Yung, Yu Ma, Ma, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Huw Jones, Stella Qiu, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrew Heavens, Leslie Adler, Diane Craft Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Citigroup, Japan's Nikkei, Monetary Fund, BMO Wealth Management’s, Thomson Locations: Asia, Europe, CHINA, China, Pacific, Japan, Boston, London, Sydney
REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoJuly 13 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The one percentage point fall in June headline consumer price inflation to 3.0% strengthened hopes that the U.S. economy is heading for a 'soft landing', boosting risk appetite and, more importantly for emerging markets, slamming the dollar. The yen has risen five days in a row, its longest winning streak against the dollar since November. That would be the biggest fall in exports since January - economists at SocGen are penciling in a 15.7% crash. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- South Korea interest rate decision- China trade (June)- Thailand parliament elects new prime ministerBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, BOK, Josie Kao Organizations: Shanghai Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Asia FX, South Korean, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Pudong, Shanghai, China, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Zealand, SocGen, Korea, Thailand
Data suggests recession risks remain high, but wages and U.S. and European interest rates are also still rising - so stick or twist? Here are five big calls investors are now making. Principal Global Investors chief global strategist Seema Shah said she maintained her view that government bonds would do well with recession still likely by year-end. Reuters Graphics4/ FRAGILE CHINASpluttering data, property market woes and meek economic stimulus have also busted new year bets of a Chinese mini-boom. Principal Global Investors' Shah said she still expected commodities to continue to struggle "because a combination of U.S. slowdown plus China slowdown should mean weak demand."
Persons: Bonds, Francesco Sandrini, Seema Shah, JP Morgan, Trevor Greetham, Florian Ielpo, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Morgan Stanley, Shah, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Reuters, Global Investors, Royal London Asset Management, Lombard, Swiss, Bank of America, Fed, FX, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: bitcoin, Europe's, British, tatters, Japan, CHINA
The US dollar index plunged to its lowest level since April 2022 as inflation dramatically cooled again. ""For the big dollar trend, this may be the start of the long-awaited cyclical decline," ING strategists said. It declined accelerated after data released Wednesday showed US inflation came in at 3.0% in June annually, the lowest level since March 2021. "For the big dollar trend, this may be the start of the long-awaited cyclical decline. The Fed has raised benchmark rates by 500 basis points since last spring, from near-zero levels to north of 5%.
Persons: Chris Turner, DXY, James Knightly Organizations: ING, Service, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
Recent moves led by China and Russia to challenge the dollar's global dominance has attracted much attention. But Allianz says the greenback's supremacy faces no serious threat, saying "any significant switch will take a long time to evolve". Dollar assets' unmatched liquidity and the private sector's heavy reliance on the greenback will support it over the longer term, according to the German financial services giant. But the greenback's status as the world's reserve currency faces no real threat for the foreseeable future, according to Allianz. The dollar still makes up almost 60% of all global reserves – while China's yuan accounts for just 3%, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Persons: Ludovic Subran, It's Organizations: Allianz, Service, International Monetary Fund Locations: China, Russia, Wall, Silicon, Argentina, Beijing
[1/2] U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. The greenback also hit its lowest against the Swiss franc since early 2015 after the inflation report. Data showed core U.S. consumer prices rose just 0.2% in June, compared with forecasts for a gain of 0.3%. The monthly rise in core prices was the smallest since August 2021. Against the yen, the dollar dropped to a six-week low of 138.17 yen .
Persons: Lee Jae, Simon Harvey, Jordan Rochester, Sterling, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Ann Saphir, Chris Reese, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, Nomura, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Seoul, Swiss, U.S, London, Norwegian, Swedish, United States
[1/2] U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. The greenback also hit its lowest against the Swiss franc since early 2015 after the inflation report. "The Fed may have talked itself into a corner with a July 26th rate hike. Against the yen, the dollar dropped to a six-week low of 138.17 yen . The pound is being driven by expectations for the Bank of England to deliver more rate rises to tame UK inflation, which is the highest of any major economy.
Persons: Lee Jae, Simon Harvey, Brian Jacobsen, Sterling, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Chuck Mikolajczak, Ann Saphir, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, Core, CPI, Annex Wealth Management, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Seoul, Swiss, Core U.S, U.S, London, Norwegian, Swedish, Menomonee Falls , Wisconsin, New York, San Francisco
Dollar slumps ahead of US inflation data, sterling rises
  + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
"The (RBNZ) statement and minutes retained their dovish undertone overall, but they can't not warn that inflation is still 'too high' as they need to contain inflation expectations," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. The broader market focus remained on U.S. inflation data due later on Wednesday, with expectations for core consumer prices to have risen 5% on an annual basis in June. "We're already seeing markets move in anticipation of a softer U.S. inflation report," said City Index's Simpson. U.S. Treasury yields came under pressure on Wednesday, with the two-year yield and benchmark 10-year yield settling below 5% and 4%, respectively. "Speculation of a possible tweak could allow the (yen) some support ahead of the BOJ meeting this month."
Persons: BoE, Matt Simpson, we've, Index's Simpson, Sterling, YCC, Jane Foley, Rae Wee, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Bank of England, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S ., Fed, BoE . U.S, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, BoE .
Gold rises on softer dollar, yields ahead of U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices rose on Wednesday after the dollar and bond yields retreated as investors awaited U.S. inflation data that could offer more cues on the Federal Reserve's rate-hike policy path. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,939.43 per ounce by 0518 GMT, its highest since June 20. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,944.90. Economists polled by Reuters expect June core inflation rate to have dropped to 5% from 5.3%, still significantly above the Fed's 2% target. In the wider base metals market, prices rose, supported by a weaker dollar, although a gloomy demand outlook loomed over the market.
Persons: Jun Rong, Barot Organizations: Pro Aurum, Treasury, CPI, IG, Reuters, Metals Focus, greenback
"We've got other things happening outside of the dollar world," Paul Greunwald said, per Reuters. The US dollar "will continue to be a leading world currency," Greunwald said, per Reuters. However, "it will no longer be the dominant world currency," he added. "We've got other things happening outside of the dollar world," said Greunwald, citing a growing volume of trade that's being done in the Chinese yuan as an example, per Reuters. Nobel laureate and economist Paul Krugman wrote in an op-ed for the New York Times on Friday that the greenback's dominance won't last forever — "because nothing does."
Persons: We've, Paul Greunwald, chimed, Paul Gruenwald, Greunwald, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Krugman Organizations: Russia, Service, P Global, Reuters, Bank of International, New York Times Locations: Wall, Silicon, London, Russia
[1/2] U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. Markets are now focusing their attention on U.S. consumer prices data due out on Wednesday, which will provide more clarity on the progress the Fed has made in its fight against stubbornly high inflation. The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen. "There have been no signs of relief in the labour market data and markets continue to price in more. Given the rising inflation backdrop in Japan, the market is starting to become more wary that perhaps a policy tweak could come."
Persons: Rick Wilking, Shaun Osborne, Kirstine Kundby, That's, Kundby, Nielsen, Moh Siong Sim, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Edmund Klamann, Alex Richardson, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Scotiabank . Markets, Sterling, Bank of England, Danske Bank, Nielsen, Swiss, greenback, Swiss National Bank, Singapore, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, Norwegian, Swedish, Swiss, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
U.S. interest rate expectations have been a key driver of the dollar since the Fed began its tightening cycle last year. A survey from the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed waning near-term inflation expectations among Americans, who said last month they were expecting the weakest near-term inflation gains in just over two years. Sterling , meanwhile, hit a near 15-month high of $1.2913 after British wage growth hit a joint record high, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to tighten policy further to bring inflation under control. The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen. Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.1% to $1.1012, the Australian dollar steadied at $0.6680, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.2% to $0.6198.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Shaun Osborne, Sterling, Kirstine Kundby, That's, Kundby, Nielsen, Moh Siong Sim, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Edmund Klamann, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Scotiabank . Markets, New York Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Danske Bank, Nielsen, Singapore, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, . U.S, Japan, China's
HONG KONG, July 11 (Reuters) - Asian shares bounced and the safe-haven dollar edged lower on Tuesday as investors hoped this week's U.S. inflation data supports an imminent end to rate hikes and cheered the prospect China will deliver economic stimulus to prop up stalling growth. Early in the Asian trading day, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was up 0.7% while U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis , rose 0.06%. Australian shares (.AXJO) edged up 1.01%, while Japan's Nikkei stock index (.N225) rose 0.66%. Shares of Intel (INTC.O) rose 2.8% and an index of semiconductors (.SOX) was up 2.1%. The two-year yield , which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.8639% compared with a U.S. close of 4.862%.
Persons: HSI, Brent, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal, U.S, CPI, ANZ, Japan's Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intel, Treasuries, Treasury, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, U.S, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Refinitiv
Several Fed officials said on Monday the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down still-high inflation, but that the end to its current monetary policy tightening cycle is getting close. U.S. interest rate expectations have been a key driver of the dollar since the Fed began its tightening cycle last year. A survey from the New York Federal Reserve showed on Monday waning near-term inflation expectations among Americans, who said last month they were expecting the weakest near-term inflation gains in just over two years. The dollar/yen pair is particularly sensitive to U.S. yields as interest rates in Japan are anchored near zero. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar gained 0.16% to $0.6687, while the New Zealand dollar added 0.06% to $0.6216.
Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New York Federal, Treasury, Australian, New Zealand, Macquarie, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, . U.S, Japan, China
Dollar slips as Fed hike cycle nears end, focus on U.S. inflation
  + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Several Fed officials said on Monday the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down still-high inflation, but that the end to its current monetary policy tightening cycle is getting close. U.S. interest rate expectations have been a key driver of the dollar since the Fed began its tightening cycle last year. A survey from the New York Federal Reserve showed on Monday waning near-term inflation expectations among Americans, who said last month they were expecting the weakest near-term inflation gains in just over two years. The dollar/yen pair is particularly sensitive to U.S. yields as interest rates in Japan are anchored near zero. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar gained 0.16% to $0.6687, while the New Zealand dollar added 0.06% to $0.6216.
Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong Organizations: Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New York Federal, Treasury, Australian, New Zealand, Macquarie Locations: U.S, Asia, . U.S, Japan, China
In afternoon trading, the dollar index , which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of major peers, slid 0.3% to 101.98, a three-week low. With U.S. nonfarm payrolls out of the way, attention turns to U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday. The Norwegian crown firmed against the dollar and euro following Norway's inflation data. The Chinese yuan slumped against the dollar after weak inflation numbers in the world's second-largest economy. The weak Chinese data dragged down the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are often used as liquid proxies for the Chinese yuan.
Persons: gainers, Mary Daly, nonfarm, Erik Nelson, Wells, Nelson, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Alun John, Rae Wee, Jamie Freed, Ed Osmond, Emelia, Will Dunham, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, U.S, CPI, New, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, London, Europe, China, Norwegian, New Zealand, Singapore
LONDON, July 10 (Reuters) - An increasing number of countries are repatriating gold reserves as protection against the sort of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, according to an Invesco survey of central bank and sovereign wealth funds published on Monday. The survey showed a "substantial share" of central banks were concerned by the precedent that had been set. DIVERSIFYGeopolitical concerns, combined with opportunities in emerging markets, are also encouraging some central banks to diversify away from the dollar. Infrastructure is now seen as the most attractive asset class, particularly those projects involving renewable energy generation. "The funds and the central banks are now trying to get to grips with higher inflation," he said.
Persons: Rod Ringrow, Ringrow, Marc Jones, Mike Harrison Organizations: West, Sovereign Asset Management, Infrastructure, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine, London, China, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, Britain, Italy
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