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☆ Big name investors like Bill Ackman are calling on the FDIC to insure all deposits, but that would only cost banks' customers more, former FDIC chair says
  + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Big name investors have called for the FDIC to extend coverage to all bank deposits. But that would only cost banks' customers more, the former FDIC chair said. But extending deposit coverage won't be cheap, McWilliams said, as complicated and complex banks will incur a larger cost to insure deposits. It will be the bank, and inevitably that cost will be borne by its customers," she said. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman warned in a tweet on Wednesday that more lenders could soon fail if the FDIC didn't back all bank deposits.
☆ US stocks tumble as investors fret over new bout of banking sector volatility
  + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +1 min
US stocks slid on Thursday as investors dealt with fresh volatility in bank shares. The drop continued yesterday's losses after the Fed hiked rates another 25 basis-points. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyUS stocks slid on Thursday as investors fretted over more banking turmoil. All three indexes ended the day lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding almost 300 points. The drop in stocks extended yesterday's losses after the Federal Reserve hiked rates for a 10th time, adding to fears that the economy could be headed for a recession.
☆ The Fed will cut rates in the fall as banking turmoil puts credit conditions in a 'tight vise', economist says
  + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The Fed will finally cut interest rates in the fall, former PIMCO economist Paul McCulley predicted. That's because banking turmoil will put credit in a "tight vise," slowing the economy, he warned. Economists have flagged the risk of recession over the past year as the Fed aggressively hiked rates. Economists have been flagging the growing odds of recession over the past year, as the Fed raised interest rates over 1,700% to combat inflation. "We have this chronic condition that I think is a really tight vise on MainStreet lending," McCulley warned.
☆ The US and China are on a collision course that will worsen the geopolitical economic depression, 'Dr. Doom' economist Nouriel Roubini warns
  + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The US and China are on a collision course that's set to worsen a "geopolitical depression," Nouriel Roubini said. Roubini previously said a geopolitical depression will have far-reaching economic and financial consequences. "Fragmentation and decoupling are becoming the new normal, the two countries remain on a collision course, and a dangerous deepening of the ongoing 'geopolitical depression' is all but inevitable." In a column in February, Roubini warned the world has entered a geopolitical depression that will have far-reaching economic and financial consequences. "In particular, a hot war between major powers is now more likely within the next decade," Roubini wrote in February.
☆ Nobel economist Paul Krugman says minting a $1 trillion coin to prevent a debt ceiling crisis wouldn't be inflationary
  + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The US could mint a platinum coin to solve the debt crisis without worsening inflation, Paul Krugman said. The top economist said the inflationary effects of the coin would be offset by the Fed selling bonds. "But as I said, people who really should know better constantly get this wrong, and imagine that the coin would be inflationary." Some economists have criticized a $1 trillion coin as "unworkable" and an unrealistic solution that could worsen inflation. For his part, Krugman thinks the government is more likely to issue "premium bonds" to avoid default than mint a $1 trillion coin.
☆ Oil prices slide as markets worry about a recession ahead of expected rate hike from the Fed
  + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
US oil prices slid below $70 a barrel on Wednesday ahead of the Fed's rate hike decision. That comes amid growing fears of a recession in the US, as high rates threaten to overtighten the economy. The likelihood of a recession within the next 12 months has jumped to nearly 60%, according to the New York Fed Recession Probability Index. Still, she added oil could rebound in the second half of the year as supply cuts from OPEC+ producers push prices upward. That could lead WTI crude to top $100 a barrel by the end of the year, she said, even in the event of a mild recession.
☆ The Fed pursuing 2% inflation is an 'absolute trap' for the economy, 40-year market veteran says
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The Fed's 2% inflation goal is an "absolute trap," according to 40-year market veteran Barry Knapp. Knapp pointed to tightening credit conditions, suggesting more tightening from the Fed could cause a recession. Elevated prices aren't always a drag on the economy, he added, pointing to 3%-4% inflation in the 90s. "The whole 2% target is an absolute trap," The Ironsides Macroeconomics founder said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. But elevated inflation isn't necessarily a hindrance to the economy, Knapp said, pointing to 3%-4% inflation in the early 90s, years when the economy expanded and benefited from a huge boom in business spending.
☆ Housing affordability drops as home prices stay elevated and average mortgage costs jumped in March
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Housing affordability dropped in March as low inventory kept home prices elevated, the MBA said. Meanwhile, the average mortgage payment for new applicants increased 1.6% over the month of March. That's largely due to low inventory in the housing market, the MBA said, which has kept home prices high despite downward pricing pressure that usually comes with higher mortgage rates. New listings of homes for sale dropped over 20% in April compared to a year earlier, Redfin reported, marking the steepest drop in housing inventory since the pandemic. Central bankers raised rates over 1,700% in the past year to lower inflation, a move that's influenced mortgage rates to move higher as well.
☆ Stocks could soon retest all-time highs as markets react to possible 'thesis-changing' final rate hike from the Fed, Fundstrat says
  + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Stocks face a "make or break" moment this week and could rally to 4,750, Fundstrat said. That's because the Fed could soon issue its last rate hike, which is expected to be bullish for stocks. A Fed pause could be a "make or break" moment for stocks, Lee said, as steep rate hikes weighed heavily on equities in 2022. That's largely because easing inflation indicators could pressure the Fed to hold back on its hawkish monetary policy, Lee said. He has been bullish on stocks through much of the bear market, previously predicting that the S&P 500 would hit another all-time-high in 2022, the year the benchmark index actually sank 20%.
☆ US stocks rise as investors cheer strong corporate earnings and shake off banking fears
  + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
US stocks rose on Friday, boosted by a streak of strong earnings reports. 79% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings have beated estimates, according to FactSet. Investors digested fresh bank weakness amid reports that First Republic is headed for FDIC receivership. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Meanwhile, the Employment Cost Index rose 1.2% over the past quarter, a sign that inflation's presence is still being felt in the economy.
☆ A notorious recession indicator says that an economic downturn will begin this quarter, Bank of America says
  + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
BofA strategists pointed to two points in the yield curve that have inverted, moves typically followed by a recession." Yield curve says recession starts now; markets await confirmation from labor market," the analysts wrote. Given that those bond yields inverted in November of last year, the recession should be arriving in May. Yield curve says recession starts now; markets await confirmation from labor market," strategists said in a emailed note on Friday. "Inverted yield curves signal recession, but once recession begins the yield curve immediately steepens as market discounts Fed policy response to recession," they added in the note.
☆ Russia's energy dominance is fading with pipeline gas exports reportedly set to fall by 50% this year
  + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Russia's pipeline gas exports are set to halve this year, according to a report from a Kremlin-affiliated news outlet. Those losses are largely due to Russia slashing pipeline gas flows to Europe last year in retaliation for sanctions. Government forecasters predicted the Russia's pipeline gas exports could halve in 2023, the Kremlin-affiliated Russian news outlet Izvestia reported on Thursday. That will pile on to hefty losses Russia's gas industry already weathered in 2022, with state-owned Gazprom reporting the lowest volume of gas exports last year since the start of the century. Russia's oil and gas revenue crashed nearly 50% in January of this year alone, according to estimates from Russia's finance ministry.
☆ Stocks are headed into risky territory as the Fed keeps policy tight and earnings growth slows, Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist says
  + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Stocks are facing risks as the Fed continues to keep monetary policy tight, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said. Wilson previously has warned of an earnings recession that could rival 2008. "Markets often reprice late in the cycle when they realize that Fed policy is not accommodative enough to compensate for the slowing growth backdrop," Wilson said in a note on Monday. For the first quarter, the consensus view on Wall Street is for a 9% decline in earnings growth in S&P 500 companies, followed by just a 4% drop in the second quarter, with earnings growth returning the second half of the year. We would agree with that conclusion if we believed the consensus forecasts," Wilson warned.
☆ Why one investor says Elon Musk's reign as CEO of Tesla, Twitter, and SpaceX may be 'entering the end game'
  + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Elon Musk's days as CEO of three high-profile companies might soon be over, investor Dan Nathan said. Nathan pointed to Musk's mountain of debt from his Twitter takeover, as well as pressures facing Tesla. "He might be entering the end game here a little bit for being the CEO for all these companies," Nathan said. Tesla stock has rocketed higher in 2023 after a terrible performance last year. "Earnings estimates are coming down, margin estimates are coming down, delivery estimates are coming down, backlog is coming down, and inventory is going up.
☆ Markets are facing a black swan event with 'nowhere to hide' as the latest rally has fueled a bubble that could burst at any time, veteran technical analyst says
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Markets are facing a black swan event, according to veteran strategist Jeff Bierman. Bierman pointed to a positive correlation between 5 assets, which is a sign the market is overbought. "This is a witch's brew for the pain trade to the downside," Bierman said in a note on Thursday. This is a black swan event. "Prepare for a bout of volatility," Bierman said of stocks this earnings season.
☆ Paul Krugman warns a US debt default would mean economic disaster. Here are 3 things Biden can do if lawmakers fail to strike a deal.
  + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
A US default cause be failure to raise the debt ceiling would bring on disaster, Paul Krugman said. Krugman listed three options for the Biden administration to avoid a default if lawmakers don't raise the ceiling. On Monday, Speaker Kevin McCarthy said the House would vote on a bill to lift the debt ceiling until 2024, though he didn't specify what would be included. Mint a $3 trillion platinum coin: The Treasury Department has the authority to mint commemorative coins. Krugman said this is a way to borrow money without technically adding to the national debt burden.
☆ 'Zombie' companies are headed for a year of pain as rates move higher and access to credit gets cut off, think tank expert says
  + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
"Zombie" companies are facing a year of pain ahead, according to think tank expert Sonya Gibbs. Gibbs pointed to higher interest rates, which could strain finances at overborrowed firms. But higher rates are necessary to correct major problems in the market, she added. In the short term though, higher rates are going to cause a lot of pain," Gibbs warned. Other market observers have raised similar concerns as the Fed continues to raise interest rates.
☆ US stocks trade mixed as investors assess wave of earnings results from big companies
  + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +1 min
Stocks traded mixed on Tuesday as investors digested the wave of earnings reports from big firms. Markets initially saw a boost over strong economic growth in China, but reversed gains midday. Investors are awaiting another wave of results from big firms including Netflix and Tesla. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Investors were awaiting more earnings figures from big firms like Netflix, United Airlines and Western Alliance, which are all expected release their financials Wednesday morning.
☆ Rents just fell to their lowest level in over a year as ballooning prices from the pandemic start to deflate, Redfin says
  + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Rents in March declined to their lowest level in over a year, according to data from Redfin. That's largely due to the excess supply of multifamily units that were built during the pandemic. "Rents ballooned during the pandemic, and are now returning to earth," said a Redfin real estate agent. The trend is backed by earlier data from Moody's, which found that rents this year for multifamily units have declined in 76% of housing markets. In the previous two years, rents surged because incomes grew and millennials started families, Redfin explained.
☆ Markets are growing nervous over the prospect of a US default as debt ceiling deadline looms
  + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Demand for debt insurance has skyrocketed, while demand for US Treasury bills has fallen off, the FT reported. Meanwhile, the demand for US Treasury bills has fallen off, a sign investors are leaning away from government-issued debt as the impasse over raising the debt ceiling drags on. Prices for Treasury bills that expire in late summer – around the time a debt default could potentially happen – have fallen below those of other, riskier short-term debt instruments, the FT said. Though experts say it is unlikely, a debt default would be potentially catastrophic for markets, with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen calling such an event an "unthinkable." But time is running out for policymakers, who are holding out as they spar over possible spending cuts as a condition for raising the debt ceiling.
☆ Oil demand will hit a new record in 2023, driving up prices as supply declines, IEA says
  + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Global oil demand is expected to hit a new record this year, spelling trouble for crude prices. The IEA estimated oil demand could hit 101.9 million barrels per day in 2023. The energy watchdog predicted the world's crude oil demand would jump to a record 101.9 million barrels a day in 2023, up by ​​2 million barrels a day from last year. OPEC+ announced a surprise production cut earlier this month of over 1 million barrels a day. Oil prices briefly spiked into the triple-digits last year as Russia's invasion of Ukraine created chaos in markets.
☆ Dow soars 383 points as US stocks jump on more signs inflation is falling
  + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
US stocks jumped on Thursday on more signs of falling inflation and a cooling labor market. Investors cheered data that showed a big drop in the Producer Price Index in March. All three major indexes ended higher, with the S&P 500 notching its best day since February. Investors cheered a steep decline in the producer price index in March. The new batch of data is offering more signs of a cooling economy, after the Fed hiked rates aggressively in 2022.
☆ Charles Schwab highlights a part of the stock market that will outperform if interest rates stay high
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
There's an area of the stock market that will outperform amid higher interest rates, Charles Schwab said. Their outperformance could continue if interest rates stay high, Charles Schwab said. That's thanks to rising short-term interest rates, with central bankers hiking rates over 1,700% in the past year to control inflation. Markets initially raised the odds that the bank's failure would spur the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year. But central bankers have signaled the opposite, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell warning that interest rates would stay elevated through the rest of the year.
☆ Nobel economist Paul Krugman says this is the best job market in decades, and the Fed doesn't need high unemployment to bring down inflation
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The Fed doesn't need to raise unemployment to lower inflation, Paul Krugman said. That suggests the labor market is sustainable, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said otherwise. Central bankers raised interest rates over 1,700% in the past year to tame inflation and rein in economic growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said rates will likely need to stay elevated until the labor market cools. But inflation measures have been cooling without a rise in unemployment, Krugman said.
☆ Housing is so unaffordable that banks are losing money for each mortgage they finance for the first time ever
  + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Housing is so unaffordable banks lost money for each mortgage they financed last year, according to a new report. Mortgage banks and subsidiaries lost an average $301 per loan, the first negative profit recorded by the Mortgage Bankers Assocation. In 2022, mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries within banks lost an average $301 for every mortgage they financed, the MBA said in a recent report. Banks and other mortgage companies each financed an average $2.6 billion in loans in 2022, roughly half of the $5 billion figure for 2021. Banks and mortgage companies spent an average $10,624 to finance each home loan in 2022, representing a 23% cost increase from 2021.
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