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☆ Asia markets mixed ahead of Australian central bank minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

The Sydney Opera House Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Gallo Images | Brand X Pictures | Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific markets are mixed as traders look to minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia for its policy meeting on Sept. 5. The minutes will detail how the RBA came to hold its benchmark policy rate at 4.1%, the third straight month that it has done so. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slid 0.23% in early trade, while both South Korea's Kospi and Kosadaq were trading close to the flatline. Japan's Nikkei 225 slumped 0.76% upon its return from a public holiday, while the Topix saw a smaller loss of 0.16%.

Organizations: Sydney Opera House, Getty, Reserve Bank of Australia, Nikkei Locations: Sydney Opera House Sydney , New South Wales, Australia, Asia, Pacific

As a result, they’re almost sure to leave their key interest rate unchanged when their meeting ends Wednesday. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, said she thinks a “soft landing,” in which the Fed manages to curb inflation without causing a recession, remains possible. But she cautioned that inflation might stay higher for longer than the central bank expects. Or, she suggested, the cumulative effects of the Fed's 11 rate hikes could ultimately tip the economy into recession. “I expect we’ll need to hold rates at restrictive levels for some time,” said Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Persons: they’re, Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, ” Sahm, “ They’re, ”, Christopher Waller, Powell, “, They're, Jose Torres, Susan Collins, Lorie Logan, William English Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Wall Street, Fed, Fed's, Governors, CNBC, Interactive, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Dallas Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, “, Yale School of Management Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Ukraine, U.S

Sept 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The main exception appears to be oil, which continues to forge new peaks for the year in a steady march towards $100 a barrel. Could the oil price spike feature in the raft of central bank policy decisions and outlooks this week? In Asia, that would be the central bank meetings in Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia on Thursday, and Japan on Friday. Tuesday's Asian and Pacific economic calendar is pretty light, with the Reserve Bank of Australia's last policy meeting minutes the main event.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Brent, South Korea's, Deepa Babington Organizations: U.S . Federal, Treasury, Bank of, South, U.S ., Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S ., Friday's, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Bank of Japan, India's, Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Malaysian, Malaysia

☆ Australia's first female central bank chief set to tackle reforms and cost of living crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Michelle Toh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN —Australia’s new central bank chief, Michele Bullock, took the helm Monday after a firestorm of criticism over rising living costs engulfed the tenure of her predecessor. Philip Lowe, former governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, speaking in Canberra in August. “Raising interest rates is never popular, but I think given the circumstances, the Reserve Bank had to do something,” noted Oliver. Within the bank, Lowe also faced questions about the culture he’d fostered since taking over in 2016. Should prices fall more slowly than expected, the central bank would face similar pressure to raise rates, Oliver predicted.

Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Philip Lowe, Shane Oliver, ”, would’ve, wasn’t, Lowe, Oliver, Rohan Thomson, RBA, Nick McKim, ” McKim, “ It’s, ” Oliver, disempowered, ” Bullock, ” Lowe, — Hilary Whiteman Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Reserve Bank of Australia, AMP, CNN, Bloomberg, Getty, Reserve Bank Locations: Hong Kong, Australian, Canberra, Ukraine, Australia, United States, Europe

☆ Bullock takes over at Australia central bank with soft landing in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Incoming RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivers the Sir Leslie Melville Public Lecture at the Australian National University in Canberra, Australia, August 29, 2023 in this handout image. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been on hold for three months after raising interest rates aggressively for more than a year. The tightening has slowed Australia's growth, but analysts think the economy could still achieve a soft landing. If Australia avoids recession and delivers a soft landing, history may judge outgoing Governor Philip Lowe more kindly. In the search to replace Bullock as deputy, Chalmers has indicated the government is looking at candidates inside and outside the central bank.

Persons: Michele Bullock, Leslie Melville, Tracey Nearmy, Bullock, it's, Cherelle Murphy, Philip Lowe, Lowe, Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Stephen Halmarick, Stella Qiu, William Mallard Organizations: Australian National University, ANU, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of Australia, EY Oceania, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Canberra, Australia, Handout, New Zealand, Germany, Europe's, COVID

☆ A legendary economist who called the 2008 recession says another downturn is knocking on the door — and warns stocks will end up falling 40% by the end of this market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.

Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's

The UAW began striking at factories that make only a few vehicles – Ford Broncos and Rangers, Jeep Wranglers, Chevrolet mid-size pickups and GMC vans. Car prices were rising long before the auto workers even raised the possibility of a strike. Prices are almost certain to rise even if the strike is settled quickly, because the auto makers' labor costs will increase. “They could double our wages and not raise car prices and still make billions of dollars in profit,” he said during an online presentation to union members this week. It's all enough to make many motorists consider avoiding the car lot and keeping their current car a while longer.

Persons: Stellantis, ”, Ivan Drury, isn’t, Garrett Nelson, ” Nelson, “, we’re, Tesla, Drury, Kelley, Patrick Anderson, Shawn Fain, Edmunds Organizations: DALLAS, United Auto Workers, Dealers, General Motors, UAW, Detroit, Ford Broncos, Rangers, Jeep Wranglers, Chevrolet, GMC, Chevrolet Silverado, Tahoe, GMC Sierra, Ford, CFRA Research, GM, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, Consumers, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Anderson Economic Group, Stellantis, “ Locations: Edmunds, Mexico, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Australian jobs surge as productivity debate heats up
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Headline indicators report a very strong employment report, but the bias towards predominantly part-time employment should temper exuberance," said Dwyfor Evans, head of APAC macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. Markets maintained bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would keep rates steady next month, with an about 40% chance of one final hike early next year. WAGES, PRODUCTIVITYThe strong figures showed Australia's jobs market is still extremely tight more than and a year-and-a-half after the economy shook off its COVID-era border restrictions. loadingTreasurer Jim Chalmers on Thursday welcomed the strong jobs report, but warned that the labour market could slow from here, a consensus view among economists. Adam Boyton, head of Australian research at ANZ, is already seeing signs of slackening in the labour market, with underemployment rate creeping up and hours worked falling.

Persons: Barista Claudio Chimisso, Loren Elliott, Dwyfor Evans, Tim Gurner, Alexandria Ocasio, Cortez, Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Adam Boyton, Boyton, Stella Qiu, Kim Coghill, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Street Global, Reserve Bank, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, ANZ, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, China

☆ Peru's central bank cuts benchmark interest rate to 7.5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A worker walks pasts the logo of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) inside its headquarters building in Lima, Peru June 16, 2017. REUTERS/Mariana Bazo/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 14 (Reuters) - Peru's central bank on Thursday cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5% after holding the rate steady for eight straight months, as the monetary authority in the Andean nation sees inflation easing. The central bank first held the rate steady in February following an aggressive series of hikes that began in August 2021. Despite inflation easing, the bank said on Thursday that its decision does not necessarily imply a cycle of successive reductions in the interest rate. Peru's annual inflation rate in August slowed to 5.58%, the lowest since September 2021.

Persons: Mariana Bazo, Carolina Pulice, Brendan O'Boyle Organizations: Central Reserve Bank of, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Central Reserve Bank of Peru, Lima , Peru, Peru, Chile, Brazil, Uruguay, Lincoln

☆ Crunch time after string of aggressive central bank rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Major central banks have confounded economists with a string of interest rate rises that, so far, have moderated inflation without causing global recession. So far, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,915 bps in this cycle. Reuters Graphics2) NEW ZEALANDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its cash rate to a 14-year high of 5.5% in May and has kept it there since. Reuters Graphics7) AUSTRALIAThe Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at 4.1% for a third consecutive meeting in September, the last under former Governor Philip Lowe. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the world's most dovish major central bank, meets next week.

Persons: BoE, Macklem, Philip Lowe, Lowe's, Michele Bullock, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, UNITED, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of, BRITAIN, of England, CANADA Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada, ECB, Norges Bank, SWEDEN Traders, Swiss, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NORWAY, Reserve Bank of Australia, SWEDEN, Swedish, SWITZERLAND Swiss, JAPAN

☆ India's August wholesale price index falls 0.52% y/y
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A worker carries a sack of potatoes at a wholesale market in Mumbai, India July 14, 2017. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW DELHI, Sept 14 (Reuters) - India's wholesale price index (INWPI=ECI) fell 0.52% in August from a year earlier, according to government data released on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had estimated the wholesale price index for August would fall 0.6%. Food prices rose 5.62% year-on-year, compared with a sharp rise of 7.75% in July, and manufactured product prices fell 2.37% in August, against a 2.51% fall the previous month. Reporting by Nikunj Ohri; Writing by Shivangi Acharya; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Shailesh Andrade, Shaktikanta Das, Nikunj Ohri, Shivangi Acharya, Jacqueline Wong, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, DELHI

☆ The economy's safety net is about to disappear thanks to an oncoming perfect storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Consumer spending held up the US economy even as many worried about the prospect of a recession. Even as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. Higher rates start to biteLet's start with interest rates. Credit-card debt, in contrast, tends to move up and down with interest rates. That COVID cash stockpile helped support the economy despite rising interest rates and historically high inflation.

Persons: Barbie, Taylor Swift, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Morgan Stanley, Janet Yellen, Yellen, John David Rainey, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, We've, Piper, Nancy Lazar, Lazar Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Credit, Federal Reserve Bank of New, CNBC, San Francisco Fed, Walmart, Fox News Digital Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Ukraine

☆ August Inflation Report Overall Prices Set to Pop, But Details Should Look Better
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

PinnedMany economists think that a cooling job market, with slower pay gains, could pave the way for slower price increases. A recent jump in gas prices probably helped to speed up overall inflation in August, but economists expected a key underlying price measure to grow at a muted pace. Fed officials will closely parse this report, because it is the final major piece of economic data before their Sept. 19-20 monetary policy meeting. Fed officials must decide in coming months whether they need to raise rates again in 2023, and what would merit such a move. The central bank will receive one more Consumer Price Index inflation report before its November gathering, on Oct. 12.

Persons: John C, Williams, Jerome H, Powell, Mr Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Paul Krugman says 'the war on inflation has been pretty much won — without a recession'
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The economist Paul Krugman says the war on inflation is pretty much over. This points to a "Goldilocks" scenario, in which inflation cools without a recession. That's perhaps what happened last month, when core inflation was "distorted by lags in the measured price of shelter," Krugman wrote on X, formerly called Twitter. He pointed to what some call a "Goldilocks" scenario, in which inflation cools without a recession. Notably, among items seeing lower inflation, nearly three in four had an increase in the actual quantity bought by consumers.

Persons: Paul Krugman, disinflation, Krugman, Mike Konczal, Konczal, Patience Organizations: Service, New York Times, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Roosevelt Institute Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine

☆ The US consumer has been holding up the economy this summer by splurging on movies and concerts — but this may not last, a new survey indicates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The strong consumer spending propping up the US economy may not last, a Bloomberg survey found. Over half of the respondents said they think US personal consumption will shrink in early 2024. High interest rates and a drawdown of pandemic-era savings could hit consumer spending. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, any changes in the measure are a big deal. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, JP Morgan predicted in an August 17 note that the stock market is set to fall as US consumer spending softens.

Persons: Jim Chanos, Anna Wong, James Knightley, David Rosenberg, JP Morgan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Wall, Bloomberg Economics, ING, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ New Zealand forecasts much larger budget deficit but improved economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/David Gray/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWELLINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - New Zealand’s government on Tuesday predicted a larger budget deficit but better-than-expected economic conditions in the year ahead, as it updated forecasts heading into the October election. The government forecast a budget deficit of NZ$11.4 billion ($6.7 billion) for the year ending June 30, 2024, much larger than a deficit of NZ$7.6 billion estimated in May. The global economy has deteriorated since May, which is having a direct impact on New Zealand's economy while tax revenue is also falling, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said in a statement. "Treasury’s latest forecasts show the economy isn’t working for Kiwis," said National Party leader Christopher Luxon. ($1 = 1.6926 New Zealand dollars)Reporting by Lucy Craymer; Editing by Sam Holmes and Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: David Gray, Grant Robertson, Robertson, ", Christopher Luxon, Lucy Craymer, Sam Holmes, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Finance, Zealanders, Treasury, Kiwis, National Party, Reserve Bank of New, Zealand, Thomson Locations: Wellington , New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon says we've been 'spending like drunken sailors,' and that's a big risk to the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on," he said. Dimon joins a chorus of recent voices warning over the strong US economy powered by consumer spending. "We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, any changes to the measure are a big deal. AdvertisementAdvertisementAfter all, the resilience of the US consumer has kept the economy going even amid the Federal Reserve's relentless rate hike cycle since March last year.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, We've, Dimon, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Bloomberg, Wall, JPMorgan Locations: Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ One sector outperforms the stock market 100% of the time when an economic recovery begins, Bank of America says. Where to invest now, and 5 reasons why the downturn phase is over.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

What happens to the US economy nextBank of America's economic indicator has made a sudden pivot upwards, from the lows of a "downturn" phase into the gradual strengthening of a "recovery" phase. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions.

Persons: it's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Jan, Staples underperformed, Bank of America Subramanian, Dev Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, Thomson, PMI, Supply Management Manufacturing, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey, Conference Board, Bond, ICE, Utilities, Health Care, Fed, of America

☆ The trusty American consumer is poised to run out of steam by early next year, investor survey says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Spending by the ever-reliable US consumer is about to fizzle out, according to a Bloomberg investor survey. Such resilience has staved off widespread recession fears, but as household savings run out, the fortunes of the US economy could reverse. AdvertisementAdvertisementIndeed, excess savings accumulated since the pandemic are poised to evaporate by as early as the end of September, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has said. "We still have very high prices, but we don't have all of that funny money around anymore, and the excess savings are going negative." The famed investor says the drying up of consumer savings is set to hammer corporate profits as spending declines.

Persons: –, Jeffrey Gundlach, Michael Burry Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Billionaire, DoubleLine, Fox Business Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ NY Fed poll finds mostly stable inflation views, more financial worries in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The relative stability of inflation expectations last month came as the survey found respondents predicted accelerating price increases for a range of key categories. At the same time, survey respondents were more downbeat about access to credit and their current and future financial positions. A record number of households reported that credit was harder to get and a rising number of respondents predicted tougher credit access in the months ahead. The New York Fed survey arrives as the Fed moves toward its next rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting, scheduled for September 19-20. Inflation expectations “have been incredibly well behaved, “ New York Fed President John Williams said last Thursday.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, “, John Williams, we've, Michael S, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, New York Fed, “ New York Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, July’s, Central

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) seal is pictured on a gate outside the RBI headquarters in Mumbai, India, February 2, 2016. Retail CBDC transactions are averaging close to 18,000 a day, way short of the RBI's one million-a-day target by 2023 end. UPI is an instant real-time payments system that allows users to transfer money across multiple banks without disclosing bank account details. The facility, announced in June, has been activated by large banks, including State Bank of India, the country's largest lender. Top private lender HDFC Bank is working with a technology firm IDEMIA to build a version of offline CBDC transactions for feature phones, according to two people aware of the plans.

Persons: Danish Siddiqui, Sharat Chandra, Akhil Handa, Handa, Jaspreet Kalra, Siddhi Nayak, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: Bank of India, REUTERS, Danish, Rights, Reserve Bank of India, UPI, State Bank of India, India Blockchain, HDFC Bank, Bank of Baroda, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Rights MUMBAI, Siddhi

[1/2] A man walks in front of the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. They now expect the central bank's 'yield curve control' policy to end in October, compared with April 2024, and for the negative interest rate policy to end in January 2024, versus December 2024. Beyond the Japanese policy drama, investors will also have the latest Indian inflation and industrial production data, and Australian business and consumer sentiment figures to digest on Tuesday. The currency is getting little support from the interest rate outlook - economists currently expect the RBI to keep rates on hold then start easing policy the second quarter of next year.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda, Josie Kao Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, of, Government Bond, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Reserve Bank of India's, Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Indonesian, Philippine, India, Australia, Korea

☆ The Fed's own economists now expect a Goldilocks scenario: No recession, low inflation, and positive growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago predict inflation will cool without a recession. "That model implies larger effects of monetary policy and faster policy transmission than other empirical models," the economists said. So far, based on the analysis, tighter policy has resulted in 5.4 percentage points in the level of real GDP and 7.1 percentage points in CPI. That represents about 65% and 75% of the total tightening effects on the levels of real GDP and CPI, respectively, that will occur, according to the model. Policy has reduced total hours worked by about 4 percentage points, or about 40% of the total effect that is ultimately projected.

Persons: Stefania D'Amico, Thomas King, D'Amico, King, Henry Blodget Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Service, Consumer, Index, CPI Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Rupee to see some relief on pullback in US yields, dollar index
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Friday on the back of a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields and a broadly softer dollar. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 83.12-83.14 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.21 in the previous session. The rupee has been flirting with the record low of 83.29 and has largely avoided it, thanks to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) intervention. The dollar index retreated in the Asia session to 104.86, having reached a six-month high of 105.15 in the New York session. Another round of losses in the yuan suggest that upside on the rupee following the open "will not be much", the forex traders said.

Persons: Nimesh Vora, Sonia Cheema Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Reserve Bank of India's, New, ANZ, Brent, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Mumbai, Asia, New York, U.S

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: This is the clearest sign yet that the economy will avoid a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US economy could be slipping into an expansion rather than a recession, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee highlighted that earnings revisions for S&P 500 companies have started to turn higher. The positive earnings revisions by analysts might be the clearest sign yet that the US economy is going to avoid a recession, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. To me that's slipping into an expansion, it's not a recession. "The upturn in S&P 500 profit estimates is a strong argument the US economy is slipping into an expansion.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Locations: Fundstrat, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

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