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☆ Morning Bid: Yen for change
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But even though the BoJ is unlikely to change that stance at this week's policy meeting, some change appears to be afoot next year as central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda ends his second five-year term in April. In numbers due for release on Thursday, Japan's core consumer price inflation rate is expected to have ticked up to 3.7% last month. That said, futures markets still aren't buying Fed policymaker indications that official rates will go above 5% and stay there all next year. After closing at their worst levels in over a month on Friday, U.S. stocks are set for a steadier open today. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ GOP-controlled Ohio Legislature passes election bill to require photo ID at the polls
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Zoë Richards | Zoë Richards Is The Evening Politics Reporter For Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

Mike DeWine a GOP-backed bill Thursday that would require voters to show photo ID at the polls and allow fewer days to request absentee ballots or vote early in person. The measure, which would replace a state law that lets voters present other documents on Election Day, such as utility bills or bank statements, was passed by the House in a 55-32 vote. The bill would also eliminate in-person early voting on the eve of Election Day and trim the amount of time voters can request and submit absentee ballots. State Rep. Richard Brown, a Democrat, said the bill headed to DeWine's desk had “many troublesome provisions,” taking particular issue with the removal of early-in person voting on the day before Election Day. Months later, Texas adopted a sweeping election law that added a new ID requirement for absentee voters and banned drive-thru and overnight early voting.

☆ Morning Bid: Hanging tough
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

As the world's major central banks turned the interest rate screw this week and insisted on more tightening ahead, their economies showed more signs of buckling under the pressure. And while markets lurched lower on the potentially toxic combination of a higher peak for interest rates into a looming recession, there are reasonable questions over whether the central banks will act as tough as they are talking. U.S. manufacturing declined 0.6% last month and reports from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve's showed business conditions in their regions remaining depressed in December. Even though after Wall St stocks plunged 2-3% on Thursday, futures remained deep in the red ahead of Friday's open. Led by the jump in euro zone sovereign borrowing rates after the ECB rethink, bond yields were higher across the board.

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks like it's being outed as the weakest link. The primary reason was that two of the nine-person MPC voted to end the Bank's rate rise campaign right away as the recession the Bank thinks is already underway will get entrenched next year. But with the median economist forecast for the Bank's terminal rate somewhere around 4.25%, markets still seem aggressively positioned for a hawkish surprise and the pound may be more vulnerable to that revision as the winter progresses. Significantly, the implied Fed terminal rate edged higher to 4.9% after its policy setpiece on Wednesday - even if is still below the 5.1% the Fed indicated. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Morning Bid: Still a ways to go?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

For markets navigating the barrage of major central bank interest rate rises this week - there's a ways to go, much as Fed chief Jerome Powell insists about the tightening cycle. Central banks in the Philippines, Norway and Taiwan also raised rates by 50bp, 25bp and 12.5bp respectively. But the policy message all around is that more pain is coming unless there's further evidence of sky-high inflation rates returning to 2% targets. Peak Fed rates implied in futures markets on Thursday remain 20bp below that official Fed projection and year-end market pricing is some 70bp below it. The economy there lost more steam in November as factory output slowed and retail sales extended declines, both missing forecasts and clocking their worst readings in six months.

LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, investment world and wider economy now have a major sequencing problem. With headline annual CPI ebbing to 7.1% last month, and core rates undershooting forecasts too to just 6.0%, most economists seem confident inflation did indeed peak around midyear. Equivalent public readings from New York Fed surveys are on the wane too. Fed Futures See Lower Rates End-23Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics"TAIL SCENARIO"Sounding something of a klaxon for most asset markets after the CPI number, the peak or terminal Fed funds rate that futures markets implied by May was dragged firmly back below 5%. Apart from verbal guidance, one important signal markets will watch on Wednesday will be the Fed's economic projections that include policy rate assumptions for the year.

☆ Morning Bid: Factory gates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wherever you think inflation is coming from, it's not China - not yet at least. China's producer prices fell 1.3% over the past year and consumer price inflation fell to just 1.6% in November - its slowest pace in eight months. With the critical U.S. consumer price inflation due on Tuesday, just before the Federal Reserve delivers its final interest rate rise of the year the following day, today's readout is expected to show annual U.S. producer price inflation dropping to 7.2% from 8.0% in October. Canada's TC Energy shut its Keystone pipeline in the United States after more than 14,000 barrels of crude oil spilled into a creek in Kansas, making it one of the largest crude spills in the United States in nearly a decade. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

LONDON, Dec 9 (Reuters) - With world markets in thrall to the final big three central bank meetings of a tumultuous year next week, the parallel world of fiscal policy takes a back seat. The UK's disastrously botched giveaway budget in September set out for many the limits of what's possible in a world of double-digit inflation. Loosen the public purse strings any further and the commensurate level of interest rates needed to then get inflation back to 2% targets balloons, and risks melting the economy down in other ways. OECD chart on fiscal outlook'BRUTE FORCE'All of which begs the question of whether central banks will have to conduct the inflation fight on their own. And likely severe recessions from historically modest interest rates just force central banks to quickly return to so-called quantitative easing, undermining their own longer-term inflation battle.

☆ Sam Bankman-Fried secretly invested in crypto news site The Block by funneling money to its CEO: report
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Travis Clark | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried secretly funded crypto news site The Block, Axios reported. Axios said the the news site, The Block, has been funded by payments from Alameda to the site's now-former CEO, Michael McCaffrey. Employees were previously unaware of the investment, Axios reported, but the revelation could raise conflict-of-interest concerns. "Just before Thanksgiving, Mike told me that in early 2021 he was evaluating ways to merge, sell or restructure The Block," Moran wrote in a blog post. A $16 million batch of funding from Alameda was used in part to purchase an apartment in the Bahamas for McCaffrey, Axios reported.

☆ Morning Bid: Bonds lap up crude, costs and Canada
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The big consensus bet of 2023 is already in full swing - bonds are bid. With year-on-year oil price gains evaporating to zero, that is dragging inflation expectations down in lockstep. The exception was in Hong Kong, which the Hang Seng benchmark (.HSI) has now recouped all this year's underperformance versus world indices and the S&P500. The Hang Seng added another 3% on Thursday as the Hong Kong government loosened its COVID-19 curbs further. The isolation period for patients and contacts will be cut to five days from seven days and requirements for arrivals to Hong Kong to undergo daily tests will similarly be reduced to five days.

☆ The third 'Wonder Woman' movie is reportedly on ice, after star Gal Gadot shared an Instagram post saying she 'can't wait to share her next chapter with you'
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Travis Clark | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The third "Wonder Woman" movie is no longer moving forward, according to The Hollywood Reporter. Director Patty Jenkins' film apparently doesn't fit in with future plans for the DC movie universe. The report follows an Instagram post from star Gal Gadot, who shared on Tuesday a photo of herself as Wonder Woman, with a caption that said she "Can't wait to share her next chapter with you." The first "Wonder Woman" in 2017 was a critical and box-office hit, grossing $822 million globally. 2020's sequel, "Wonder Woman 1984," earned just $170 million, but was released amid the coronavirus pandemic and debuted simultaneously in theaters and on the streaming service HBO Max.

☆ Morning Bid: Crude deflation?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With everyone on Wall St seemingly hand wringing about stagflation next year, the price of crude oil has plummeted by up to 10% this week to its lowest since early January - offering some relief in an otherwise murky outlook. Crucially for inflation worriers, year-on-year crude price gains - which were running at 50-100% between February's Ukraine invasion and midyear - have now fallen to just 4% and could soon be a disinflationary force in consumer price baskets. But, contrary to many prior energy market assumptions, the impact of Monday G7's Russian oil price cap at $60pb for seaborne crude is anchoring prices and underscoring massive discounts for Russia oil - already selling for as low as $55pb. The Bank of Canada is the latest on the list on Wednesday and expected to hike rates by another half point, as are the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England next week. European and Asia bourses - even Shanghai and Hong Kong despite the lifting COVID restrictions - were in negative territory too.

By contrast, the median forecast for a similar poll on the U.S. Federal Reserve is exactly where futures currently price the Fed's terminal rate next year - 5.0%. Any reversion of terminal rate pricing to consensus or below could see the pound wobble again. "That said, we have been stressing downside risks to our terminal rate projection, given the constant dovish messaging from the MPC. BoE poll question on Terminal Rate Risks? Central Bank Rate Hike CampaignSterling volatilityThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Morning Bid: Five Alive
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

And given that investors are overwhelmingly positioning for peak rates by mid year and Fed rate cuts after that, the 'good news is bad news' reactions re-emerged on Monday. Futures markets pushed their implied Fed 'terminal rate' next May back above 5% - from as low as 4.85% shortly after Fed Chair Jerome's peculiarly dovish speech last week. There were further signs that China's COVID restrictions are being lifted gradually - though that's ambiguous for global inflation outlooks more generally. There will also be attention later on the U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia - although Democrats have control of the Senate regardless. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ How Trump’s legacy became ‘pure poison’ for independents
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +16 min

Among female independents, Trump’s ratings were even worse: just 23% favorable and 72% unfavorable, according to previously unpublished exit poll results provided by the CNN polling unit. Trump’s unfavorable rating hit a comparable 69% among independents with at least a four-year college degree. That was a significantly smaller advantage than the double-digit lead among independents Democrats enjoyed in both the 2020 presidential race and the 2018 contest for the House. While Democrats held the presidency, Republicans won independents by double-digits in House elections in the midterms of 2014, 2010 and 1994. Gretchen Whitmer won 59% of the independents with degrees and 56% of women independents.

☆ Bob McGrath, a ‘Sesame Street’ original, dies at 90
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

Bob McGrath, an actor and recording artist who became a generational icon as one of the original human stars of “Sesame Street,” died Sunday. McGrath’s death was confirmed by his family members through a post on his Facebook page: “The McGrath family has some sad news to share. He played the friendly neighbor Bob Johnson, a “Sesame Street” mainstay across five decades and 47 seasons of broadcast television. In 1969, McGrath stepped into his signature role on “Sesame Street,” which was a pop culture force from its debut on the then-fledging PBS network in November 1969. McGrath was indelibly associated with “Sesame Street” for the rest of his career.

☆ Morning Bid: China reopening as volatility ebbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

What's more, Wall Street's 'fear index' is showing little if any trepidation about the final month of the year. Even though it backed up a bit today, the VIX index of implied S&P500 volatility (.VIX) closed at its lowest in 8 months on Friday. Morgan Stanley updated its China equity recommendation to overweight, citing "multiple positive developments alongside a clear path set towards reopening." China's yuan , surged past 7 to the dollar in onshore and offshore markets - its best levels in almost three months. The China re-opening optimism buoyed the oil price even as OPEC+ nations at the weekend held their targets steady despite last week's market speculation of another output cut.

But neither incoming hard economic numbers nor many senior policymakers have fully bought into the recession idea just yet. But not all think a soft landing is out of the question. JP Morgan's Bruce Kasman said his "baseline" is the lagged effect of Fed tightening does eventually drag the U.S. economy into recession late next year. But he also said it was a "mistake to rule out a soft landing scenario." by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell clears the decks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Intended or not, investors clearly read Wednesday's keynote speech by the Federal Reserve chair as a green light for a yearend relief rally in beaten down assets. On the face of it, Fed chief Jerome Powell merely confirmed what most had already assumed - that the Fed would downshift the size of its interest rate rises to half a point next month. The upshot is that markets have dragged their implied peak Fed rate next year back below 5% and continue to price up to half a point of cuts by the end of 2023. Core PCE inflation numbers are due later and another barrage of Fed speakers to hold Powell's take up to the light.

A debate on lifting central banks' inflation targets re-surfaced this week - feeding speculation about just how much economic pain monetary policymakers are willing to inflict to drag decades-high inflation back to largely arbitrary 2% goals. Former International Monetary Fund chief economist and long-term advocate of higher inflation targets Olivier Blanchard thinks 3% could and probably should be the new 2%. That prodded central banks into extraordinary asset purchases, negative interest rates or both just to try and get inflation back up to 2%. And counter-intuitively for some he emphasised that higher inflation would not imply looser policy. So good and bad news - a potentially more balanced economy, with better wage distribution but higher nominal interest rates that may spook financial markets trying to parse the trajectory for Fed or European Central Bank interest rates years hence.

☆ Morning Bid: Uneasy Chair
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. While inflation looks past its peak, labour markets remain super tight and Powell speaks before another crucial nationwide employment report on Friday. Futures market expectations for peak Fed rates next May ticked back above 5% ahead of the speech, with about 35 basis points of rate cuts from there still priced by yearend. China and Hong Kong shares extended gains on Wednesday as market participants cheered an easing of COVID-19 measures in Guangzhou city. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoLONDON, Nov 29 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. They also cheered a relaxation of regulations on developer fundraising that eases the smouldering property sector bust. A crackdown on demonstrations happened simultaneously, with Chinese authorities making inquiries into some protesters as police flooded the city's streets. Strikingly, hawkish Dutch central banker Klaus Knot also said forecasts of recession may be overdone and fears of "overtightening" policy were a "joke". His boss European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said euro zone inflation, which is expected to ease this month but remain above 10%, has not yet peaked, encouraging speculation of another swingeing 75 basis point interest rate rise next month.

☆ The small but mighty love for ‘Willow’ that led to a shiny new series
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Dan Heching | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

It’s a refreshing turn against recent trends that a cult classic without the sizable built-in fanbase of, say, a “Star Wars” or Marvel property would receive the fancy reboot treatment. “You could be walking around a convention floor, and in a sea of Harley Quinns, you’ll spot a Willow,” Delaney observed. High hopesThe arrival of the new 8-episode series comes with high hopes from the small but mighty fanbase. Bob Dolman, who wrote the screenplay for the original film, also acted as supervising producer on the first episode. Kilmer’s ex-wife Joanne Whalley, who he met on the original film, will be back in the series as warrior Sorsha.

☆ Morning Bid: China, COVID and Crude
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Rare anti-government unrest across China's cities over the weekend has unnerved world markets, weakening crude oil prices and adding fresh political risks to a fragile year-end. Wary that both the unrest and the COVID crunch compound the economic hit to China and the world, the initial market reaction on Monday was to sell Chinese stocks, the yuan and oil - with crude oil prices falling to close to $80 per barrel, their lowest since January. A U.S. regulatory clampdown on Chinese tech giants, citing national security concerns, also weighed on shares of tech firms. As U.S. markets return after the Thanksgiving weekend, attention will return to Federal Reserve tightening, the labour market and inflation picture. The German banking giant said it expected U.S. output to drop 2% over the whole year, euro zone output to decline 1% and world economic growth to slow to a recessionary 2%.

☆ Morning Bid: Gloomy enough?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Asset managers tout a return to beaten-down bonds as a result - even if there's far less enthusiasm for equity in that environment. But the view hinges on economies slowing to a point that drags inflation back down toward 2% targets. So far at least, most incoming economic numbers are less gloomy than forecast. Likewise equivalents for the euro zone, China and the world at large - with UK surprises the most positive since April. The People's Bank of China said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 25 basis points.

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