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Dollar hovers above 3-month low to euro as ECB decision looms
  + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen pulled away from near a 10-month trough to the dollar as a decline in long-term Treasury yields removed some support for the U.S. currency. The U.S. dollar index — measuring the currency against a basket of six developed-market peers, including the euro and yen — edged 0.1% lower to 104.63 in the Asian morning. The euro added 0.1% to $1.07415, continuing its grind higher from last week's low of $1.0686. The dollar slipped 0.2% to 147.125 yen , falling back from near last week's peak of 147.875. At the same time, a hike by the ECB "could potentially catalyze a shift in momentum, relegating the dollar to a secondary position as the euro gains traction," he added.
Persons: James Kniveton Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Labor Department, Traders, ECB, Reuters Locations: U.S, Melbourne
A General Motors assembly worker pickets outside the General Motors Bowling Green plant during the United Auto Workers (UAW) national strike in Bowling Green, Kentucky, U.S., October 10, 2019. Aid for suppliers has been discussed "since the minute it became clear there could be a strike" but those talks are "premature and fluid," the source said. Auto suppliers held recent discussions with the White House about the potential impact of a strike and possible options that the Biden administration could tap to help suppliers weather a prolonged strike. Small suppliers are critical to automakers' supply chains. Automakers have spent much of the past three years dealing with supply chain disruptions, and are still working to recover.
Persons: Bryan Woolston, Joe Biden's, Biden, Nandita Bose, David Shepardson, Paul Grant, David Ljunggren, Heather Timmons, Leslie Adler Organizations: General Motors, United Auto Workers, UAW, REUTERS, Detroit Three, U.S, Auto, House, Washington Post, Labor Department, Small Business Administration, White, SBA, Motor Equipment Manufacturers Association, Thomson Locations: Bowling Green , Kentucky, U.S, Michigan , Ohio, Canadian, Ontario
Retail sales rose 0.6% in August, compared with a revised 0.5% increase in July, according to a report issued by the Commerce Department on Thursday. The surge in gas prices is coursing through the economy and could slow down shoppers' momentum heading into the critical holiday shopping season. Excluding gas sales, retail sales were just up 0.2% for August, according to the Commerce Department report. Sales at gas stations rose a robust 5.2%, while furniture and home furnishings stores saw a 1% drop in sales. August's uptick in retail sales, which marks the fifth straight monthly gain, reflects the economy’s resiliency despite a still tough economic environment.
Persons: August's, , Michael Pearce, , Anne Hatfield, They’re, Kendra Scott, Chris Rugaber, Anne Organizations: Commerce Department, U.S . Labor Department, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, AAA, Amazon Prime, U.S, Oxford Economics, , Walmart, Pride, AP Locations: Washington
On a 12-month basis, core PPI increased 2.1%, its lowest annual level since January 2021. Final demand goods prices rose 2% in August, the biggest one-month gain since June 2022. Services prices increased 0.2%. Compared to the monthly rise in CPI, retail sales in real terms were flat on the month. The retail report also reflected higher energy prices, as gas station sales rose 5.2%.
Persons: Dow Jones, That's Organizations: U.S . Department of Labor, Dow, PPI, CPI, Commerce Department, Markets, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Group, Labor Department
Gold firms as U.S. data boosts bets for Fed pause next week
  + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Old gold destined for melting down lies next to a small gold bar at the Rheinische Scheidestätte in Frankfurt, on Jan. 31, 2023. Gold prices crawled higher on Thursday from nearly three-week lows touched in the previous session as the dollar and Treasury yields weakened after the U.S. inflation data cemented the case for a Federal Reserve rate pause next week. "The big uncertainty is Fed rate cut trajectory for 2024 and that remains one of the catalysts driving gold volatility," said OCBC Executive Director and FX Strategist Christopher Wong. Traders now see a 97% chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged on Wednesday, but 40% probability of a rate rise in November, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.3% to 882.00 tonnes on Wednesday.
Persons: Christopher Wong, Wong Organizations: Treasury, Federal, U.S, Labor Department, CPI, PPI, Traders, European Central Bank, Trust Locations: Frankfurt
Wholesale Inflation Spikes in August on Energy Prices
  + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Tim Smart | Sept. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +2 min
Wholesale inflation surged 0.7% in August, largely due to a spike in energy costs, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The producer price index, a measure of what businesses pay for their supplies, rose 1.6% for the year. The core PPI, excluding energy and food costs, rose 0.3% for the month and 3% for the year, above estimates for increases of 0.2% and 2.2%. The overall August increase is the largest since a 0.9% increase in June of 2022, when inflation began rising sharply, and was fueled heavily by a 10.5% increase in energy prices. On Wednesday, the government said the consumer price index rose 0.6% in August and 3.7% for the year.
Persons: , ” Julia Pollak, Organizations: Labor Department, Analysts, PPI, Research, CPI, Federal
Wholesale prices are still rising more slowly than consumer costs, a sign that inflation may continue to cool as the weaker wholesale price gains translate into smaller price increases for the consumer. Yet excluding the volatile energy and food components, core inflation fell to 4.3% in August from 4.7% in July. On a month-to-month basis, wholesale prices rose 0.7% in August, the biggest gain in more than a year, up from a 0.4% increase in July. Core wholesale prices ticked up 0.2% last month, down from 0.3% in July. Wholesale inflation year-over-year has also fallen fast, from a peak of 11.7% in March 2022.
Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Federal Reserve, Labor Department
Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Spirit Airlines slips on revenue outlook cutFord rises on plans to double production of pickup trucksConsumer prices data due at 8:30 a.m. ETFutures down: Dow 0.12%, S&P 0.12%, Nasdaq 0.15%Sept 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures inched lower on Wednesday as higher oil prices fuel worries about sticky inflation and stoke interest-rate concerns ahead of CPI data. "All indications are that higher oil costs are going to influence the headline inflation print. Investors will also closely monitor August producer prices and retail sales data on Thursday ahead of the Fed's Sept. 20 policy decision.
Persons: Mike Segar, Tim Waterer, Li Auto, Ankika Biswas, Shristi, Shubham Batra, Savio D'Souza, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Spirit Airlines, Dow, Nasdaq, stoke, Labor, KCM, Federal Reserve, Dow e, Apple, Li, European Commission, Sprit Airlines, Moderna, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Xpeng, Bengaluru
American said that fuel prices have “increased considerably” since July, when it issued its initial third-quarter guidance. Also on Wednesday, discount carrier Spirit cut third quarter revenue by 5% from its previous forecast. It blamed rising fuel prices and “heightened promotional activity with steep discounting for travel booked” for the weeks leading into Thanksgiving weekend for the adjusted guidance. The organization said in June that it more than doubled its 2023 profit forecast for the global airline industry despite a looming economic downturn. Airlines are expected to make $9.8 billion in net profit in 2023, up from a December forecast of $4.7 billion.
Persons: Scott Kirby, ” Kirby Organizations: New, New York CNN — American Airlines, Labor, Global, International Air Transport Association, United Airlines, CNN Locations: New York, Worth
The first of two major antitrust lawsuits targeting Club holding Alphabet 's (GOOGL) Google search engine got underway Tuesday in Washington, D.C. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Ford, what's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Labor, West Texas, Mortgage, Apple, Tuesday, UBS, Ford, United Auto Workers, Club, JPMorgan, Oracle, Google, Washington , D.C, Arm Holdings, SoftBank Group, Nvidia, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: China, Washington ,
Inflation increased 0.6% in August, as gasoline prices rose, pushing the annual pace to 3.7%, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday. “While goods inflation is expected to deflate, though at a slower pace compared to the last few months, we expect services inflation to remain firm,” said Andrew Patterson, senior economist at Vanguard. Inflation has receded the most in the goods sector of the economy but has proved stickier in services. Housing, in particular, has seen prices remain high while energy costs have been volatile. And wages are still growing at around a 4% annual clip, above the level the Fed would like to see to keep inflation at bay.
Persons: , , Andrew Patterson Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Vanguard, Housing Locations: Russia
The rise in oil prices largely boils down to a mismatch between supply and demand. The current backdrop may keep oil prices supported through the fall, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's short-term outlook published Tuesday . If higher oil prices – and by extension fuel prices – are sustained in the coming months, the investment implications may be somewhat mixed. For much of this year, the downward trend in oil prices contributed to lower year-over-year inflation readings . Shares of Pioneer "should be much higher," he said, noting the potential for more robust capital returns due to higher oil prices.
Persons: Jim Cramer, it's, Brent, Coterra, Eli Lilly, they'd, Jim, Jim Cramer's, Marli Miller Organizations: Natural Resources, Coterra Energy, West Texas, Brent, Nvidia, Organization for Petroleum Exporting, U.S . Energy, Saudi, U.S, Labor, Fed, Exxon Mobil, Club, CNBC, Universal, Getty Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Ukraine, Plains, Wyoming
But don’t worry if you missed out — falling ticket prices could make fall the better time to fly. Airfare to top international destinations will drop in the fall as well, with prices to Europe down 31% from summer peaks — nearly $330 off ticket prices. Known as “shoulder season,” airfare typically drops in the fall as demand cools off after the busy summer months. The three major US international airlines — American, Delta and United — all saw a surge in international traffic in recent months and added additional service to meet demand. One factor that could cause ticket prices to increase, however, is rising fuel prices.
Persons: , Hopper Organizations: New, New York CNN, Spirit Airlines, , Federal, , Frontier Airlines, American Airlines, Labor Locations: New York, Europe, Hopper, Delta, United, America
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell swore in three members of the central bank's governing board Wednesday, including Philip Jefferson as vice chair and Adriana Kugler to fill a vacant seat as the central bank's first Latina governor. As Fed governors, they will vote at the Fed's eight yearly meetings on interest rate policies as well as on changes to financial regulations. Political Cartoons View All 1157 ImagesJefferson, who first joined the board last year, was sworn in as vice chair and will therefore work closely with Powell on interest rate policy. His term as vice chair will end Sept. 7, 2027, though he can remain on the board as a governor until 2036. She was a Marshall scholar at Oxford University and holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Adriana Kugler, Joe Biden, aren't, Kugler, Lael Brainard, Obama, Jefferson, Powell, Biden, Lisa Cook, Cook Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Latina, Georgetown University, Fed, United States ’, World Bank, Labor, Davidson College, University of Virginia, Michigan State University, Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, Oxford University, University of California Locations: Georgetown, United States, North Carolina, Marshall, Berkeley
However, excluding volatile food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.3% and 4.3%, respectively, against estimates for 0.2% and 4.3%. Federal Reserve officials focus more on core as it provides a better indication of where inflation is heading over the long term. Inflation posted its biggest monthly increase this year in August as consumers faced higher prices on energy and a variety of other items. Food prices rose 0.2% while shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the CPI weighting, climbed 0.3%. Within shelter, the rent of primary residence index rose 0.5% and increased 7.8% from a year ago.
Persons: Dow Jones, airfares, Lisa Sturtevant, Sturtevant, paychecks, Andrew Hunter Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Department of Labor, Transportation, Bright MLS, Treasury, Labor Department, Capital Economics, Group
"It's going to be a mixed picture, with headline inflation picking due to higher gasoline prices and core inflation remaining contained," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The Fed would be encouraged by the continued moderation trend in core inflation, but it's still too high." While that would mark the second straight month of a pick up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI is forecast to have increased by 4.3%. "Under our new forecast for CPI health insurance, we continue to expect core CPI and especially core services ex.
Persons: Sam Bullard, it's, Ronnie Walker, Goldman Sachs, James Knightley, Lucia Mutikani, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, U.S . Energy Information Administration, CPI, Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, ING, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S, I'm, New York
The consumer price index increased by 0.6% last month, the largest gain since June 2022. Gasoline prices, which jumped 10.6% after rising 0.2% in July, accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI last month. While that marked the second straight month of a pick-up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The so-called core CPI had increased 0.2% for two consecutive months. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI increased 4.3%.
Persons: bode, Phillip Neuhart, Chris Zaccarelli, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, First Citizens Bank, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Treasury, Independent, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Charlotte , North Carolina
Student-loan company Navient reached a settlement with the Labor Department over hiring discrimination allegations. Impacted job applicants will be notified they are eligible to receive back pay from the settlement. The Labor Department announced on Monday that it reached a settlement with student-loan company Navient to resolve allegations of hiring discrimination at its Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Texas locations. Advertisement Advertisement Watch:Navient agreed to pay $700,000 in back pay and interest to resolve the allegations. Navient exited the federal student-loan servicing industry in 2021 and continues to service privately-held student loans.
Persons: Navient, Paul Hartwick, Samuel B, Maiden Organizations: Labor Department, Service, Labor, Navient Corp, Atlantic Regional Locations: Wall, Silicon, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Texas
Washington CNN —America’s small businesses felt gloomier in August as they continued to struggle with inflation and hiring qualified workers, according to a survey from the National Federation of Independent Business released Tuesday. Optimism among more than 600 small businesses surveyed declined in August from the prior month, snapping a three-month streak of improving sentiment. The share of small business owners saying they had job openings that were hard to fill stood at 40% last month, down slightly from July but still historically high. “With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions discouraging, owners want to hire and make money now from strong consumer spending,” said Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB’s chief economist, in the release. The US economy remains on strong footing, despite rapid rate hikes, with consumer spending jumping 0.8% in July and retail sales advancing 0.7% that month.
Persons: Washington CNN —, , Bill Dunkelberg, Goldman Sachs, Simona Mocuta Organizations: Washington CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, American Bankers, Economic, Committee, State Street Global Advisors
(Reuters) - Up to $135 billion of jobless benefits paid out by U.S. states during the coronavirus pandemic may have arisen from fraudulent claims, Washington's top government watchdog said on Tuesday in a report suggesting the problem is much bigger than previously estimated. But a new General Accountability Office report estimates the problem is much bigger: Between $100 billion and $135 billion of the roughly $900 billion in jobless benefits payouts from April 2020 through May 2023 may have been fraudulent. At the high end, that would equal about $1 of every $7 paid in aid over that time. "The full extent of UI fraud during the pandemic will likely never be known with certainty," the GAO report summary said. Another short-lived increase in new claims in August was seen by some economists as related to an increase in fraudulent claims activity in Ohio.
Persons: Brent Parton, Dan Burns, Leslie Adler Organizations: Reuters, Labor Department, of Columbia, U.S ., The Labor Department, Relief, Economic Security, Department Locations: U.S, of Columbia , Puerto Rico, U.S . Virgin, Massachusetts, Ohio
At the high end, that would equal about $1 of every $7 paid in aid over that time. "The full extent of UI fraud during the pandemic will likely never be known with certainty," the GAO report summary said. After several extensions, the PUA - which provided benefits to jobless individuals who would not typically have been eligible for them - expired in September 2021. Fraudulent claims activity has periodically distorted the data reported weekly by the Labor Department, befuddling economists who count on the data for gauging the wherewithal of the job market. Another short-lived increase in new claims in August was seen by some economists as related to an increase in fraudulent claims activity in Ohio.
Persons: Brent Parton, Dan Burns, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Labor Department, of Columbia, U.S ., The Labor Department, Relief, Economic Security, Department, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, of Columbia , Puerto Rico, U.S . Virgin, Massachusetts, Ohio
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a Morning Meeting livestream at 10:20 a.m. Stocks pull back Oracle is a buy Locking in LLY gains 1. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Stocks, That's, Eli Lilly, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Apple, Labor, Treasury, West Texas, Oracle
Workers, especially in low-paid industries, have millions in wages stolen each year. Wage theft — when employers don't pay their workers the benefits they're entitled to — is incredibly prevalent across the economy. From 2017 to 2020, workers clawed back over $3 billion in stolen wages , according to the left-leaning nonprofit think tank Economic Policy Institute. Under Murray's proposed legislation, workers would get paid back fully what they're owed — not just minimum wage. Meanwhile, government agencies are also trying to take aim at firms not paying workers what they're owed.
Persons: Sen, Patty Murray, Rosa DeLauro, Bobby Scott, Murray, Murray's, , they'll, they're Organizations: Service, Workers, Economic Policy Institute, Labor Department Locations: Wall, Silicon, DOL,
The problem with labor data in understanding inflation
  + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The central bank will continue to pay close attention to the state of the labor market, specifically on wages, as it focuses on defeating inflation, but there’s only so much that labor data can reveal about price increases. Mainly, it’s that wage figures are great at gauging inflation’s progress, but they’re lousy at forecasting its future. Financial markets have shifted back to a “bad news is good news” way of perceiving economic data and will continue to react to labor data, but ultimately, it’s the actual inflation data that matter most to the Fed. The issue of labor figures in forecasting inflation lies with productivity data. The Federal Reserve releases August data on industrial production.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, , Quincy Krosby, ” Agron Nicaj, it’s, Anna Cooban, ” James Athey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, Financial, LPL Financial, CNN, Oracle, National Federation of Independent Business, National Statistics, US Labor Department, Adobe, European Central Bank, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Lennar Homes, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Saudi Arabia
A few days before Biden’s speech in Maine, the Fed approved raising interest rates to their highest level in more than 22 years, continuing an aggressive inflation-busting campaign. Customers are also being pinched with higher interest rates,” a food, beverage and tobacco products manufacturer told the ISM in its August survey. “When we built our first building, interest rates were around 14% or so, and that was in the early ’80s,” she said. “We’ve seen some plans go on hold or on a slower burn until those companies see what happens with interest rates and the economy,” he said. Recession or not, the bull case for US manufacturing has the industry — and Biden — in a good mood.
Persons: Kathie Leonard, Leonard, , , ” Leonard, Joe Biden, , ’ ” Leonard, Biden, Charles Krupa, Paul Krugman, Goldman Sachs, It’s, Scott Paul, Paul, it’s, Auburn Manufacturing’s Leonard, “ we’ve, Julianna Keeling, Lou Pektor, “ We’ve, Jennifer Harris, bode Organizations: DC CNN, Maine Department of Economic, Community Development, Auburn Manufacturing, CNN, Auburn Manufacturing Inc, AP, Commerce Department, Fed, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Alliance for American Manufacturing, PMI, ISM, Labor Department, Auburn, Manufacturers, Fed Companies, National Economic Council, National Security Council Locations: Washington, Maine, Portland, Auburn , Maine, United States, Pointe, Lehigh
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