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Search resuls for: "CME FedWatch"


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CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineThe U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in August, but the overall unemployment rate rose. If the unemployment rate goes up, that means the proportion of people looking for a job compared with the total labor force has grown. Investors, too, cheered the jobs report. Major indexes rose in response to the jobs report as well.
Persons: Robyn Beck, Stephen Juneau, , Jeff Cox Organizations: HK MBG, BMW, HK, Afp, Getty, CNBC, Bank of America U.S, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Garden Grove , California, U.S
Dollar steady as traders bet Fed done with rates
  + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Data on Friday showed U.S. job growth picked up in August, but the unemployment rate jumped to 3.8%, while wage gains moderated. Markets are pricing in a 93% chance of the Fed holding steady on rates this month, and over 60% probability of no more hikes this year, CME FedWatch tool showed. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.03% to 146.18 per dollar, after dropping 0.5% on Friday following the labor data. Canada's central bank is due to meet this week and is expected to hold rates. The Canadian dollar was flat at 1.36 per dollar.
Persons: Ray Attrill, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Australia Bank ., Citi, Ministry of Finance, Reserve Bank of Australia, Canadian Locations: U.S, Japan, Canada's
Washington, DC CNN —Last week’s economic data increasingly gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve could hold interest rates steady this month, following a hike in July that brought rates to their highest level in 22 years. It’s hard to say definitively if or when the central bank will hike interest rates again this year. The Fed could hold rates steady for the rest of the year if both the job market and the broader economy continue to slow, helping bring down inflation. Higher for longer means keeping interest rates elevated for a prolonged period. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases August inflation data.
Persons: hasn’t, ” Leslie Thompson, Thompson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Susan Collins, Powell’s Jackson, there’s, Raphael Bostic, Olesya Dmitracova, ” Patrick Hummel, David Lesne, Juan Perez, Carrascosa, Barnes & Noble Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Financial, Spectrum Wealth Management, CNN, Fed, Kansas City, Boston, Yahoo, Finance, Atlanta Fed, Volkswagen, Renault, UBS, French, Swiss, Barnes &, The Reserve Bank of Australia, US Commerce Department, Eagle, Express, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Kroger, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Cape Town , South Africa, Europe
Stocks are looking to maintain momentum in the holiday-shortened week ahead even as Wall Street contends with a seasonally weak period for markets ahead of the Federal Reserve's September rate decision. Some technical indicators have investors hopeful the bullish momentum could continue in the week ahead. For example, the major indexes broke above their respective 50-day moving averages this past week — a sign of improving short-term momentum. Central bank policymakers convene for a two-day meeting starting Sept. 19 and announce their interest rate decision Sept. 20. Week ahead calendar All times are ET.
Persons: Sam Stovall, We've, Ryan Detrick, Quincy Krosby, CFRA, , HSBC's Max Kettner, Savita Subramanian, John Luke Tyner, Carson Group's Detrick, Detrick, FactSet, Kroger Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wall, Dow, Carson Group, Fed, LPL, Bank of America, Aptus Capital Advisors, Labor, PMI, PMI Services, Consumer Credit Locations: U.S, CFRA, China
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 29, 2023. Shares of Salesforce (CRM.N), which also forecast upbeat quarterly sales, rose 5.6% before the bell as the cloud-based software provider benefits from price hikes and a resilient demand. Investors now await the price consumption expenditure (PCE) index for July, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due at 8:30 a.m. The core PCE price index is expected to have climbed 4.2% in the 12 months through July, according to economists polled by Reuters. Among other stocks, Dollar General (DG.N) slumped 14.2% after the discount retailer cut its annual same-store sales forecast.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Salesforce, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Raphael Bostic's, Alibaba, Shristi Achar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Investors, Reuters, Graphics Traders, Atlanta Fed, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Dow e, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
On Wednesday, European shares nudged higher (.STOXX), while a gauge of Asian shares gained 0.35% (.MIAPJ0000PUS) and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei touched its highest in over two weeks (.N225). Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline euro zone inflation rate to have moderated to 5.1% in August from 5.3% in July, still far above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% goal. Euro zone inflation has exceeded the target level for two years. Germany's two-year yield rose 7 bps to 3.099% after regional Germany inflation data.
Persons: Issei Kato, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Europe's, Sylvia Ardagna, Ardagna, Germany's, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, Barclays, ECB, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, Asia, Spain, Germany, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's
The index though is down about 6% so far in August and set for its worst monthly performance since February. The Eurostoxx 50 futures rose 0.39%, German DAX futures were up 0.29% and FTSE futures were up 0.31%. Overnight, Wall Street ended sharply higher, while Treasury yields slid to three-week lows after data showed U.S. job openings dropped to the lowest in nearly 2-1/2 years in July, signalling easing labour market pressures. With the Fed highlighting that the interest rate path will be heavily dependent on data, traders are tweaking their bets based on the latest indicators. Traders will be closely watching cocoa prices on Wednesday after the London cocoa futures on ICE rose to a 46-year high on Tuesday, buoyed by tightening supplies.
Persons: Issei Kato, DAX, Powell, Tina Teng, Carlos Casanova, Gina Raimondo, Brent, bitcoin, Ankur Banerjee, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Futures, Treasury, CMC Markets, Investors, PMI, . Commerce, Aussie, Traders, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Europe, Germany, Spain, China, Wednesday's, UBP, U.S
The default rate for US speculative-grade debt has been rising and notched 4.2% in July. And that pace is likely to accelerate due to a higher interest rates, strategists said. But that's still below 2020's peak, which saw the default rate top 8%, according to Moody's data cited by Societe Generale. Markets have grown more concerned over corporate debt pressures as the Fed aggressively raised the cost of borrowing over the past year and a half to tame high inflation. Meanwhile, corporate debt defaults in 2023 have already surpassed last year's total, Moody's data shows.
Persons: that's Organizations: Societe Generale, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon
The dollar index , which measures U.S. currency against six key rivals, eased 0.077% at 103.85, after slipping 0.2% on Monday. The index is up 2% this month as resilient economic data bolstered expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer. The yen inched up 0.12% to 146.36 per dollar in Asian hours but remained close 146.75, its lowest level since Nov.9. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen. The Australian dollar added 0.03% to $0.643, while the New Zealand dollar eased 0.02% to $0.591.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Carol Kong, CBA's Kong, Jackson, Chanana, Ueda, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Ministry of Finance, United, Saxo, Jackson, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Japan, United States, Tokyo, Singapore
Inflation could rebound, thanks to high energy prices and hot economic growth. "We're going to see another inflation wave that's going to be stimulated by high growth and by higher energy prices." But there are still lingering price pressures in the economy that could bring on a resurgence of hot inflation, Hassett warned. In Hassett's view, interest rates could "for sure" rise to 6%, a level unseen since December 2000 and something that most investors likely haven't priced into assets. AdvertisementAdvertisementHigher interest rates could spell trouble for stocks and the economy as financial conditions continue to tighten.
Persons: Kevin Hassett, Trump, Hassett, There's Organizations: Service, White House, of Economic, CNBC, White, Atlanta, CPI, AAA, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
Dollar soft as markets brace for data fest, yen under pressure
  + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar index , which measures U.S. currency against six key rivals, eased 0.077% at 103.85, after slipping 0.2% on Monday. The index is up 2% this month as resilient economic data bolstered expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer. The yen inched up 0.12% to 146.36 per dollar in Asian hours but remained close 146.75, its lowest level since Nov. 9. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen. The Australian dollar added 0.03% to $0.643, while the New Zealand dollar eased 0.02% to $0.591.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Carol Kong, CBA's Kong, Jackson, Chanana, Ueda, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Ministry of Finance, United, Saxo, Jackson, New Zealand Locations: Nantong, China's, Jiangsu, Japan, United States
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, edged 0.08 lower to 104.08 after hitting its highest since early June on Friday. "It remains unlikely we get a hike from the Fed in September," Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said. With the Fed highlighting the importance of the upcoming U.S. economic data, investors' focus this week will be on reports on payrolls, core inflation and consumer spending. But the single currency traded near an almost 11-week low hit on Friday after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said policy needed to be restrictive. China's yuan steadied against the dollar, buoyed by the Chinese central bank repeatedly setting stronger-than-expected daily-mid-points.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jackson, Jerome Powell, Chris Weston, Weston, Rodrigo Catril, Christine Lagarde, Tommy Wu, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Mark Potter, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Fed, National Australia Bank, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Sterling, London, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, U.S, China, Japan, London, Singapore
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, edged 0.06% lower at 104.11, after hitting its highest since early June on Friday. "But November is shaping up to be a 'live' event, where data points have the potential to throw interest rate expectations around." With the Fed highlighting the importance of the upcoming U.S. economic data, investors' focus this week will firmly be on reports on payrolls, core inflation and consumer spending. According to Refinitiv data, the market is now evenly split on whether there will be another rise in the 3.75% rate in September. China's yuan steadied against the dollar, buoyed by the Chinese central bank persistently setting stronger-than-expected daily-mid-points.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Powell, Chris Weston, Weston, Rodrigo Catril, Christine Lagarde, Tommy Wu, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Fed, National Australia Bank, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, China, Beijing, U.S, Japan, London, Singapore
Dollar soft as investors digest 'higher for longer' path
  + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
"We will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data," Powell said in a keynote address. "It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so." "It remains unlikely we get a hike from the Fed in September," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. The single currency was up 0.04% to $1.0804, while the pound was last at $1.2599, up 0.17% on the day. The Australian dollar rose 0.55% to $0.644, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.32% versus the greenback to $0.592.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Chris Weston, Weston, Rodrigo Catril Organizations: Fed, National Australia Bank, Bank of Japan, New Zealand Locations: Chicago, U.S, Japan
Regardless, the major averages are set to close a losing month as higher yields and Fitch downgrades weighed on equities this month. "Further cooling in the labor market and the services sector," said Brian Ellis, portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. The labor report will be preceded by the July personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, report on Thursday. In fact, many investors expect that the Federal Reserve is probably done hiking rates here as policymakers await the effects of higher rates on the real economy. Increasingly, investors are looking for opportunities in income as they deal with the possibility of higher rates for longer.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jay Hatfield, Fitch downgrades, nonfarm, Brian Ellis, Powell, Morgan, Ellis, Ben Kirby, that's, Thornburg's Kirby, Campbell Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Capital Management, Dow Jones Industrial, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Federal Reserve, Thornburg Investment Management, Labor, Investors, Dallas Fed, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP, ADP, Costco, PCE, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, Dollar, Broadcom, Jobs, PMI, Manufacturing Locations: , Wyoming, U.S, cautiousness, Smucker, Chicago
Washington, DC CNN —Additional interest rate hikes are still on the table and rates could remain elevated for longer than expected, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday. “Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy,” Powell said. “So what does that mean for monetary policy? The Fed chair said higher interest rates are likely pulling on the economy’s reins, implying that r* might not be structurally higher, though he said it’s an unobservable concept. But we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest, and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint,” Powell said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Powell, ” William English, Jason Furman, Organizations: DC CNN, Kansas City, Fed, Financial, Atlanta Fed, National Federation of Independent, Yale University, Fed’s, Governors, CNN, Commerce Department, Index, Harvard Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
US stocks rose Friday as markets brushed off Powell's warnings of more possible Fed tightening. The Fed chief said the central bank could hike interest rates further "if appropriate" to tame inflation. Investors seemed to ignore the warning, pushing to the Dow up almost 250 points during the session. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. "Beyond September, markets may have to adjust the rate outlook higher, particularly if the recent run of faster than expected growth continues to play out."
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, Wealth's Gary Pzegeo Organizations: Fed, Dow, Service, CIBC, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jim Cramer's, We've, GEHC, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Wall, Federal, Fed, Nvidia, GE Healthcare, Argus Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, MRIs
US stocks rose higher as traders waited for Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Last year, stocks plunged after Powell warned markets of "more pain" ahead. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyAdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks rose Friday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Powell's speech at the same event last year sent stocks plummeting as he reiterated the central bank's committement to fighting inflation through interest rate hikes. At last year's event, stocks plunged after Powell warned markets of "more pain" ahead, as the Fed would continue to stay hawkish on inflation.
Persons: Jackson, Powell, Jerome Powell's, Riley, Art Hogan Organizations: Investors, Service, Federal, Jackson, Fed, Riley Wealth, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon
New York CNN —Most of the year, people visit Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to ski, fly fish or simply enjoy the region’s vast natural beauty. Setting the stage: the economic backdropInflation has slowed significantly since last year’s Jackson Hole conference, alongside glimmers of a cooling labor market. A look back at past Jackson Hole conferencesLast year’s Jackson Hole conference was notable not just because it was the first time in two years that economists gathered in person. Months after Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech, he unveiled a whole new phase of bond-purchasing in what has now become known as QE2. A columnist for the Financial Times went so far as to say that Draghi “certainly stole the show this year [at Jackson Hole].”No matter what comes out of the conference this year, it’s clear that what happens in Jackson Hole doesn’t stay in Jackson Hole.
Persons: Jackson, Jerome Powell, He’ll, Michael Cahill, Goldman Sachs, Powell, , Ben Bernanke, , Cahill, , Bernanke’s Jackson, Bernanke, Janet Yellen, “ it’s, ” Cahill, Michael Woodford, John Williams, Williams, European Central Bank Mario Draghi Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Kansas City Fed, Jackson, Fed, Traders, Goldman, CNN, Columbia University, ” New York Fed, San Francisco Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Financial Times Locations: New York, , Wyoming, Woodstock, Jackson
New York CNN —With Nvidia earnings out of the way, the next test for US markets is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s annual speech at the Jackson Hole economic summit on Friday. “In August of 2022, Powell knew the Fed had several more rate hikes to go. Macy’s sounds the alarm on credit card delinquenciesMacy’s is warning of a spike in customers who are failing to make credit card payments, adding to the evidence of mounting financial stress on consumers, reports my colleague Matt Egan. This situation is hurting Macy’s business, driving down credit card revenue by 36% year over year and contributing to a quarterly loss, he said. Citing worsening consumer leverage metrics, Macy’s is bracing for a further increase in “bad debt” in its credit card portfolio.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, Powell, , — Powell, , Tom Graff, Matt Egan, ” Adrian Mitchell, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, Qiana Di, Di Bari, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nvidia, Kansas, Fed, Dow Jones, , Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: New York, Wyoming, Maui, United States, Qiana Di Bari, Lahaina, Kahului
Dollar hovers near two-month high, yen near 146/dlr
  + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 103.55, not far from the two-month high of 103.71 it touched on Tuesday. The index is up 1.6% in August and is on course to snap its two-month losing streak. The Australian dollar rose 0.40% to $0.645, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.29% to $0.596. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last rose 0.77% to $26,049, having touched two-month low of $25,350 overnight.
Persons: Florence Lo, Christopher Wong, Jerome Powell's, Wong, Thomas Barkin, Saira Malik, Atsushi Takeuchi, Fumio, Takeuchi, bitcoin, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Cushing Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Nuveen, Bank of, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, OCBC, Singapore, U.S, tenterhooks, Tokyo, Japan
Dollar hovers near two-month high, yen near 146 per dollar
  + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Photo taken on April 20, 2022 shows the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes in Tokyo, Japan. Photo taken on April 20, 2022 shows the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes in Tokyo, Japan. The U.S. dollar perched near a two-month peak on Wednesday as investors looked to the Federal Reserve chair's speech this week for cues on the path of monetary policy, while the yen loitered near 146 a dollar, keeping traders guessing on any intervention. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 103.55, not far from the two-month high of 103.71 it touched on Tuesday. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last rose 0.77% to $26,049, having touched two-month low of $25,350 overnight.
Persons: Christopher Wong, Jerome Powell's, Wong, Thomas Barkin, Saira Malik, Atsushi Takeuchi, Fumio, Takeuchi, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, The U.S, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Nuveen, Bank of, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Japan, The, , Wyoming, OCBC, Singapore, U.S, tenterhooks
The US won't see a resurgence in inflation, according to Jeremy Siegel. That was a reflection of poor productivity in the economy, Siegel said – a trend that has since turned around:"It was the worst productivity performance in over 70 years. This year we are hiring at less than half the pace and we have two to three times the level of GDP growth. That's why we can have this tremendous GDP growth and still have the disinflationary trend." And inflation won't reaccelerate as improving productivity justifies higher wages and drives more economic output, Siegel explained.
Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, Jay Powell, Stocks Organizations: CNBC, Service, Atlanta Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, BlackRock
The week ahead will "revolve around three things," Infrastructure Capital Management CEO Jay Hatfield remarked on the week ahead. "Nvidia's earnings, Nvidia's earnings and, to a lesser degree, Jackson Hole." Nvidia earnings Many investors expect Nvidia will beat expectations for the second quarter when it reports results next Wednesday . More commentary from Jackson Hole If Nvidia is the key microeconomic event next week, Jackson Hole will dominate macroeconomic discussion. Powell delivers his address at the annual central bank forum hosted by the Kansas City Fed next Friday morning.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jay Hatfield, Jackson, Management's Yung, Yu Ma, Hans Mosesmann, Hatfield, Powell, Ross Mayfield, Ray Farris, Fed Governor Bowman, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal, Infrastructure Capital Management, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Fitch, Federal Reserve, BMO, Nvidia, Rosenblatt Securities, Infrastructure Capital Management's, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Infrastructure Capital, Credit Suisse, Richmond Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, PMI, New, Body, Devices, Autodesk, Chicago, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Intuit, Ulta Locations: , Wyoming, China, Infrastructure Capital Management's Hatfield, Powell, . Kansas, Michigan
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