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☆ The 'mother of all melt-ups' in stocks could be quickly followed by a meltdown as the bubble in overvalued names pops, Ed Yardeni says
  + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Stocks could face a meltdown as the bubble in firms riding the AI excitement pops, Ed Yardeni said. The current bull market in stocks is unusual, as they typically begin when valuations for firms are low, he said. But if stocks rise too quickly, it could spell trouble for the market as the bubble in overvalued names pops. That ratio is now around 18, largely due to the success of the eight mega-cap firms. High rates also risk tipping the economy into recession, experts warn, which is also likely to weigh on stocks.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, meltdowns, —, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Fox Business, Yardeni, Nvidia, Microsoft, & $
☆ Russia is shifting to a total war economy as its progress in Ukraine stalls
  + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Russia is shifting to a total war economy as its invasion of Ukraine drags on and progress stalls. International relations expert Christoph Bluth pointed to toll of military spending on Russia's economy. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyRussia is shifting to a total war economy as its invasion of Ukraine takes a toll on its economy. But a longer, more intense conflict, requiring a shift to a total war economy, could be a different matter altogether," he later added. Experts have flagged pressures mounting on Moscow's financial state since Russia first began its "special military operation" in Ukraine last year.
Persons: Christoph Bluth, —, Bluth, Romir, haven't, – Organizations: Service, University of Bradford, German, Foreign Relations, Yale Locations: Russia, Ukraine
☆ A new bull market in stocks won't take off until 3 key factors improve, RBA says
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The new bull market won't take off until three things improve, RBA said. The firm pointed to the importance of profits, liquidity, and sentiment when evaluating bull markets. Stocks won't begin a bullish trajectory until at least one of those factors improves, the firm added. Those gains have led some commentators to call the start of a new bull market — but that likely isn't the case until key catalysts show improvement, RBA said. "While it is certainly possible for this rally to evolve into a full-fledged bull market, historical precedent suggests it is far from a foregone conclusion," RBA's deputy chief investment officer Dan Suzuki said in a report on Monday.
Persons: RBA, —, Richard Bernstein, RBA's, Dan Suzuki Organizations: Stocks, Service, Richard Bernstein Advisors, JPMorgan
☆ The US is in a 'cardboard box recession' that's pointing to a sharp fall in inflation by the end of the year
  + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The US is in a cardboard box recession, Charles Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop said. According to the Fibre Box Association, that's led to a drop in cardboard box demand – an overlooked recession indicator that has preceded previous downturns for the US economy. "The Cardboard Box Recession may be good news for inflation," Kleintop said, pointing to positive inflation trends in Europe. The Fed could pause rate hikes as the inflation situation improves, which commentators have said could be bullish for stocks. The five-year, five-year forward rate, an estimate of the five-year inflation rate five years from now, dropped to 2.23% this week, per Federal Reserve data.
Persons: Charles Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop, Kleintop, —, Charles Schwab, Jeffrey Kleintop, that's Organizations: Service, Fibre, Association, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: Europe
☆ Housing affordability will be low through the rest of 2023, weighed down by higher mortgage rates and scarce inventory, Goldman Sachs says
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Housing affordability will struggle through the rest of this year, Goldman Sachs warned. The housing market faces pressure from higher mortgage rates and low inventory. "The tug of war between poor affordability and tight inventory will continue," strategists said in a note on Monday. Existing homeowners are reluctant to sell properties they financed when rates were lower, keeping supply scarce and affordability constrained. Goldman strategists predicted that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate would dip only slightly, to 6.4% by the end of the year, sticking close to two-decade highs.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Goldman Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve
☆ Russia's foreign minister accuses the West of 'financial blackmail' as BRICS eye adding Saudi Arabia, Iran to economic bloc
  + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Russia's foreign minister slammed the West for its use of "financial blackmail." Saudi Arabia and Iran have requested joining the BRICS economic bloc, South Africa said. Meanwhile, South Africa's ambassador to BRICS also discussed potentially adding Saudi Arabia and Iran to the bloc of developing countries, as both outsider nations have officially requested membership. Lavrov held talks with Saudi Arabia's foreign minister on the sidelines of the BRICS meeting on Thursday, according to the AP. It's also shifted oil exports to China and India at steep discounts after the European Union banned Russian crude imports.
Persons: —, Sergey Lavrov, BRICS, Lavrov, It's Organizations: Service, South Africa —, AP, Saudi, European Union, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Iran, South Africa, Brazil, India, China, South, Moscow
☆ Extreme investor bearishness suggests stock market gains of 16% are coming in the next 12 months, BofA says
  + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
History says that when investors are as bearish on stocks as they are now, big gains are ahead, according to BofA. Bearish stock allocations are a strong contrarian indicator for future gains. The S&P 500 saw gains over the next 12 months 94% of the time when investors were this pessimistic. Interest rates could also soon drop as the Federal Reserve gets a handle on inflation, strategists added, which will supplement stock gains. The S&P 500 is up about 10% year-to-date, gaining despite a spate of bank failures, recession fears, and a US debt ceiling fight.
Persons: — Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Wall, Federal Reserve
☆ Crypto is funding businesses in China that fuel the fentanyl trade, Senator Elizabeth Warren says
  + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Crypto is funding businesses in China that supply fentanyl, Senator Elizabeth Warren warned. Digital currencies could be funding $540 billion worth of fentanyl pills on the market, per Elliptic data. That comes as the US battles an opioid crisis, with fentanyl driving a record in overdose deaths in 2022. "That is enough fentanyl to kill nearly 9 billion people, all paid for by crypto," Warren said. Illicit crypto transaction volumes hit a new record of $20.1 billion last year according to the blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.
Persons: Crypto, Elizabeth Warren, —, Warren, Warren's Organizations: Service, Senate Banking, Center for Disease Locations: China, cryptocurrency
☆ US stocks slide as traders wait for lawmakers to vote on debt ceiling deal
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Stocks slid on Wednesday ahead of a House vote to resolve the debt-ceiling crisis. The price of credit default swaps linked to US debt show investors think a default is possible, though unlikely. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. The deal, negotiated by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the weekend, passed the House Rules Committee with a 7-6 vote on Tuesday night, with a full House vote scheduled for Wednesday evening. Markets have lowered their expectations of a US debt default, though the price of credit default swaps tied to US debt still show that investors think a default is possible.
Persons: Stocks, —, Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Philadelphia Fed Locations: China
☆ Russia's economy is at China's mercy. Here's why that won't be changing anytime soon.
  + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Russia's economy is becoming dependent on China and it could soon be a vassal state of Beijing, experts say. But it isn't an equal partnership, and Russia may be on its way to becoming a vassal state of China. Richard Connolly, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and an expert on the Russian economy, disagreed with the term "vassal state." "Was Russia a vassal state to Europe over the last 30 years? The difficulties it is facing make it only more likely that Russia will deepen its dependence on China, Zagorsky said.
☆ Exploring the Majesty and Mystery of Sor Juana in Dance
  + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Marina Harss | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
She bends her back deeply and twists on the floor as the people around her watch, curious but withdrawn. As couples pass by, the dancer leaps and rolls, flying and landing heavily, looking side to side as if seeking refuge. Sor Juana’s life is the subject of a new work by the choreographer Michelle Manzanales that premieres on June 1, during Ballet Hispánico’s season at the New York City Center. Sor Juana, born out of wedlock into a deeply patriarchal society, chose the convent over marriage and domesticity. She is intriguing not only because of her extraordinary achievement but because not much is known about her beyond the few clues she left in her writing.
☆ Russia is seeking allies to shift trade away from the greenback and quicken the pace of de-dollarization, deputy prime minister says
  + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Russia is seeking partners to quicken the pace of de-dollarization, Russia's deputy prime minister Alexey Overchuk said. The nation could create an independent financial system with Islamic countries. We are talking about processes of de-dollarization and the creation of an independent financial system," Overchuk said at an economic forum on Friday, per a report from Russian news agency Tass. Ties between Russia and Islamic countries also have a "positive future," Overchuk said, given Russia's alignment on issues like energy, food, and de-globalization. The shift away from the US dollar is already beginning to take place, Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said, though experts have argued de-dollarization fears are largely overblown.
☆ You can't replace the dollar, but here are 5 alternative assets that are chipping away at the greenback's supremacy
  + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar isn't going away, but other assets classes are slowly chipping away at its dominance. The US dollar is the world's top reserve currency — by far. CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty ImagesThe US dollar has been the world's reserve currency since the second world war, playing a crucial role in the world's trade. In 1999, over 70% of the world's foreign exchange reserves were held in the US dollar. Even alternative currencies like the Swedish krona, the South Korean won, and the Australian and Canadian dollars have been chipping away at the greenback's share.
☆ Moldovan region headed for clash with pro-European government
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Alexander Tanas | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
CHISINAU, May 16 (Reuters) - The assembly in a pro-Russian region of Moldova on Tuesday endorsed the election of a local leader intent on improving ties with Moscow, a move that set up a clash with the country's pro-European government. The southern Moldovan region of Gagauzia elected a new "bashkan", or leader, last weekend in a race featuring only pro-Russian candidates. But Moldova's prime minister and other officials have suggested central authorities will try to annul the results on grounds of widespread irregularities. "The police and prosecutors have made public irregularities noted in the course of the vote," he told Moldova's Pro TV. As the Gagauzia assembly unanimously approved the election outcome, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the building shouting "Down with Dictatorship, down with Maia Sandu!"
☆ Here are 3 key things to watch for at Tesla's investor meeting, according to Deepwater's Gene Munster
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Tesla investors should watch out for three key things at the upcoming shareholder meeting, Gene Munster said. He estimated a 70% chance that Musk could step down as CEO in the next year, which could spark a sell-off in Tesla stock. Munster, a long-time bull and follower of Tesla stock, outlined two potential positives for Tesla stock, though he noted a major leadership change that could result in a sell-off for investors. Musk stepping down as Tesla's leader could spark a sell-off in Tesla stock, Munster warned in a previous interview with CNBC, as Musk is inherently tied to the company's brand. That involved him selling off his own Tesla shares to fund his $400 billion purchase of the social media site, a move that angered Tesla investors.
☆ Here's why the US economy is in much better shape than people think, according to top economist Paul Krugman
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The economy is doing better than people think despite widespread recession fears, Paul Krugman said. The top economist pointed to a strong labor market and falling inflation as signs of economic health. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. In an op-ed for the New York Times on Monday, Krugman pointed to widespread pessimism about the US economy, despite indicators that show economic activity is fairly healthy. The odds of a future recession have also been widely publicized through media reports, which could be creating a negative bias.
☆ The housing market has frozen over. Here's why experts say home affordability isn't getting better any time soon.
  + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
The housing market is frozen, and affordability is unlikely to get better soon, experts told Insider. Activity has slowed thanks to high mortgage rates, which have pushed both buyers and sellers out of the market. That's largely because the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates high over the next year, which will influence mortgage rates to stay elevated. Housing in limboIt's a precarious time for the US housing market, with activity slowing significantly in recent months as the Fed aggressively hiked interest rates. Mortgage rates — and likewise, home affordability — will hinge on the Fed's future interest rate moves and any subsequent volatility in rate markets.
☆ China's mounting such a strong attack on the dollar's dominance that it's paying for almost all of its Russian oil imports in the yuan
  + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Much of the trade was done in the Chinese yuan, per Reuters. China has ramped up the use of the yuan to buy commodities such as oil and coal from Russia. The country has been using its own currency — the yuan — for almost all of the Russian oil it bought over the past year, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing multiple trading executives with direct knowledge of the matter. The executive was likely referring to Russian crude being subject to a $60-a-barrel price cap imposed by a G7-led coalition. To contextualize this, China imported $88 billion worth of major commodities including crude oil and fuel oil from Russia in 2022 — up 52% in value from 2021.
☆ A recession will unfold this summer and last through the middle of 2024, Evercore chairman says
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
A recession is coming this summer and will last until mid-2024, Evercore chairman Ed Hyman said. "I've never forecast a recession this far in advance," he said in an interview with Bloomberg. Signs of trouble brewing in the economy suggest a recession will unfold this summer and last through mid-next year, according to Evercore chairman Ed Hyman. But if we're tightening and other central banks are tightening, it makes our tightening much more aggressive on the economy," he added. "I've never forecast a recession this far in advance," he said, suggesting that the Fed didn't need to keep rates at the current level.
☆ Commercial real estate lending plunged 56% last quarter as 'logjam' of uncertainty clogged the market
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Commercial real estate lending more than halved last quarter compared to the prior year. In the first quarter, commercial real estate mortgage loans plunged 56% compared to a year ago, and loans dropped 42% from the fourth quarter. "Uncertainty and volatility in regards to interest rates and property values, and supply demand imbalances for some property types, has led to a logjam in commercial real estate sales and financing markets," MBA's head of commercial real estate research Jamie Woodwell said in a statement. Meanwhile, there's nearly $450 billion in commercial real estate loans that's set to mature in 2023 and will need to be renegotiated. JPMorgan estimated around 20% of commercial real estate loans could default.
☆ Carl Icahn's investment company has come under investigation by prosecutors following short-seller claims the firm was running a 'Ponzi-like' scheme
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Icahn Enterprises is being investigated by prosecutors after claims that the firm is running a "Ponzi-like" scheme. Prosecutors have asked the firm for information related to its financials, according to a Wednesday filing. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyCarl Icahn's investment firm, Icahn Enterprises, is being investigated by federal prosecutors after a short-seller accused the firm of running a "Ponzi-like" scheme. Prosecutors were seeking information related to Icahn Enterprises' corporate governance, stock offerings, dividends, and other aspects of its business, the filing said. Shares of Icahn Enterprises fell 19% on Wednesday, after losing nearly 25% the previous week after Hindenburg's report was first released.
☆ US stocks fall as debt ceiling jitters rattle investors and markets brace for April inflation report
  + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +1 min
President Joe Biden was due to meet top lawmakers to discuss the debt ceiling. Markets are also bracing for the April inflation report to be released on Wednesday. President Joe Biden was scheduled to discuss a solution to the debt ceiling crisis with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other lawmakers after the closing bell. McCarthy has said he would reject a short-term debt ceiling increase, even as the US may have less than a month before running out of money. Failing to raise the debt ceiling in time could result in a "catastrophe" for the US economy, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned on Monday.
☆ Dollar dominance isn't going anywhere. Here are 5 myths about de-dollarization.
  + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
The dollar's dominance isn't at risk, three currency experts told Insider. Vocal observers, like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have warned that the threat of de-dollarization is real, as countries like China take measures to supplant the dollar. They debunked five myths and misconceptions that are commonly touted by dollar doomsayers:1. The dollar is losing its stance as the top currency in global tradeThis claim also isn't supported by data. Though the percentage of dollar reserves has slipped, he estimates it would take around 24 years for global dollar reserves to drop another 12%.
☆ Banking 'cancer' may be spreading as otherwise healthy firms seem vulnerable and credit gets pulled from the economy, Mohamed El-Erian says
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Banking sector "cancer" is starting to spread, Mohamed El-Erian said. Other regional lenders have shown signs of weakness after First Republic Bank failed this week. Widespread contagion would turn the banking situation into a true crisis, El-Erian warned. "The cancer within them is starting to spread, and we've got to keep an eye on that," he added. Credit conditions are also beginning to tighten, and the risks of further contraction go up as banking contagion spreads.
☆ A mysterious Indian firm likely tied to Russia's Rosneft amassed an enormous tanker fleet in just 18 months and has become a top shipper of Russian crude, report says
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
An India oil firm that's become the top shipper of Russian crude is likely tied to Rosneft, the FT reported. That comes amid India's growing appetite for deeply discounted Russian crude. It's unclear who owns Gatik, though industry experts have suggested the company is likely tied to Rosneft, Russia's largest state-run oil firm. Russian oil makes up 30% of India's crude consumption, up from the 1% prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to official trade statistics. Russia, in response, has built up its fleet of shadow ships, which are believed to transport Russian crude to the west via uninsured and under the radar vessels.
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