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☆ Australia's economy slows in Q3 as higher rates, prices sap spending power
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Australia's economy slowed a little in the September quarter as sky-high prices and rising interest rates sapped consumer spending power, a sign aggressive policy tightening is working to cool demand. Household consumption was again the engine of growth with a rise of 1.1% in the quarter, driven by spending on travel, eating out and new motor vehicles. "The decent rise in Q3 GDP probably marks the last hurrah for Australia's economy as tighter monetary policy and falling real incomes weigh on spending," said Marcel Thieliant, a senior economist at Capital Economics. The country is still wading in cash thanks to sky-high prices for many of its resource exports. That helped nominal GDP grow a blistering 13.1% in the year to September to reach a record A$2.38 trillion ($1.59 trillion), or A$91,847 for every Australian.

☆ Australia records first current account deficit in three years
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | Sam Tobin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed the current account had slid to a deficit of A$2.3 billion ($1.54 billion) in the July-September quarter. That was down from a surplus of A$14.7 billion in the previous quarter and far from forecasts for a A$6.2 billion surplus. "The deficit reflected a narrowing but robust trade surplus, which was offset by a record high income deficit in the September quarter," said Grace Kim, acting head of international statistics at the ABS. However, net exports still subtracted only 0.2 percentage points from growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, whereas analysts had looked for a drag of 0.6 percentage points. On the other hand, separate data out on Tuesday showed government spending had subtracted 0.2 percentage points from growth in the quarter.

☆ Indonesia inflation eased further in November but stays above target
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Indonesia's inflation eased in November but stayed above the central bank's target range for the sixth consecutive month amid rising food prices and higher transportation fares, official data showed on Thursday. The headline annual inflation rate eased to 5.42% in November, compared with 5.71% in October and 5.50% expected by analysts polled by Reuters. Bank Indonesia's inflation target range is 2% to 4%. The annual core inflation rate, which excludes government-controlled prices and volatile food prices, edged lower to 3.30% from 3.31% in October. Meanwhile, the price of rice, a staple food in Indonesia, was still rising last month, although the pace had slowed, he said.

☆ Chinese farmers let cabbages rot as COVID curbs disrupt sales
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The situation is exacerbated by a fragmented supply chain, where small farmers sell to middlemen who purchase for large wholesale markets in cities. Cui typically sends up to 20 large trucks of cauliflower, cabbage, and lettuce to markets daily in this season. Henan produced 76 million tonnes of vegetables last year, or about 10% of the nation's supply, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Tuesday it had launched an initiative to sell Henan vegetables at large wholesale markets, selling 4,677 tonnes last week. It also set up a hotline to connect farmers with sellers, and said it would find cold storage facilities to stock winter vegetables.

As the coronavirus has spread in China, Beijing has imposed prolonged lockdowns in several places. The stringent COVID-19 measures also stoked rare street protests across many cities over the weekend. Reuters GraphicsThe sub-indexes for manufacturing PMI including output, employment and suppliers' delivery times all shrank in November at a faster pace than the month before, the data showed. The official manufacturing PMI largely focuses on big and state-owned firms. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Thursday.

Helping to boost prices, U.S. crude oil stocks were expected to have dropped by about 7.9 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 25, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Gasoline inventories rose by about 2.9 million barrels, while distillate stocks were seen rising about 4.0 million barrels, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Thin liquidity and an overall lack of trading volumes towards the year-end could also be propping up the market, according to Virendra Chauhan at Energy Aspects. On the supply side, OPEC+ is likely to keep oil output policy unchanged at a meeting on Sunday, five OPEC+ sources said, although two sources said an additional production cut was also likely to be considered, to support prices. "Oil’s rally ran out of steam after reports that OPEC+ might end up keeping their output steady.

☆ China's Nov factory, services activities fall to 7-month lows on COVID curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 48.0 against 49.2 in October, the lowest reading in seven months, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Separately, the non-manufacturing PMI, which looks at service sector activity, fell to 46.7 from 48.7 in October, also the lowest reading in seven months. Chinese authorities this month rolled out a flurry of policies to prop up the struggling economy, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and COVID fine-tuning measures, while loosening financing curbs to rescue the property sector. The official manufacturing PMI largely focuses on big and state-owned firms. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Thursday.

☆ Australia monthly inflation slows in October, hints at possible peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed its monthly consumer price index (CPI) had risen 6.9% in the year to October, slowing from 7.3% in September. That was shock to analysts, who had looked for a rise to 7.4% or higher in October, and was a possible hint that inflation might be peaking. The RBA has expected consumer price inflation would peak at about 8% this quarter, but now that might be too pessimistic. We wouldn't read too much into the drop in the Monthly CPI Indicator in October because the figures don't cover the entire CPI basket," said Marcel Thieliant, a senior economist at Capital Economics. "Nonetheless, the figures do suggest that inflation is about to peak."

☆ China's factory activity contraction deepens in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

BEIJING, Nov 30 (Reuters) - China's factory activity contracted at a faster pace in November, an official survey showed on Wednesday, weighed down by softening global demand and COVID-19 restrictions, underscoring the added pressure faced by the world's second-largest economy. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 48.0 against a 49.2 reading in October, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 49.0. The 50-point mark separates contraction from growth on a monthly basis. Reporting by Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Widespread protests against the Chinese government’s “zero-Covid” restrictions may have rocked the country over the weekend, but data shows that anger has been building for months. Protests also flared up in June — right after the financial hub of Shanghai completed a grueling two-month lockdown — and in September and October. China’s zero-Covid strategy aims to isolate individual cases and cut off transmission chains through a combination of quarantine, contact tracing, mass testing and strict lockdowns. According to an Oxford University government response tracker, China’s lockdowns have remained at early-pandemic levels, while the U.S. and remaining Group of 7 nations have relaxed their measures. The lockdowns are having a major impact on the Chinese economy, the world’s second largest after the United States.

☆ India annual GDP growth to slow in Sept quarter as COVID effect fades
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Aftab Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW DELHI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Annual growth in the Indian economy likely slowed in the July-September quarter as COVID distortions faded, economists said ahead of GDP data due on Wednesday that will provide clues about its resilience in the face of global economic turmoil. Asia's third-largest economy is expected to post annual growth of 6.2% in the three months to Sept. 31, according to a Reuters poll, down from explosive growth of 13.5% in the previous quarter, which was inflated by comparison with weak activity during COVID-19 lockdowns. Ghosh, however, said annual GDP growth in the period could be slightly slower than the consensus expectation of over 6% as companies have seen a decline in margins and industrial production increased at an annual pace of only 1.5% on average last quarter, its weakest in two years. Consumption has also improved, which suggests that momentum on a non-seasonally adjusted basis is likely to be stronger in the July-September quarter than in the previous three months, economists said. "On a sequential (non seasonally adjusted) basis, July-September GDP is likely to increase, reversing the contraction seen in the prior three months," said Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays.

☆ China's industrial profits drop further as COVID woes take toll on economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-27 | by ( Liz Lee | Liangping Gao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s industrial firms saw overall profits decline further in the January-October period as COVID-19 outbreaks flared up and cities imposed new virus curbs, including targeted lockdowns, dampening economic activity. Profits declined for 22 of China’s 41 major industrial sectors. Sectors showing the steepest declines included the petroleum, coal and fuel processing industry which saw profits tumble 70.9%. Some sectors that have seen strong profit growth saw the pace of growth slow significantly. Last month, China’s industrial output surged 5.0% from a year earlier, missing expectations for a 5.2% gain in a Reuters poll and slowing from the 6.3% growth seen in September.

☆ China's industrial profits fall at faster pace in Jan-Oct
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Jan-Oct industrial profits -3.0% y/y vs -2.3% in Jan-SeptemberBEIJING, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Profits at China's industrial firms fell at a faster pace in January-October as a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and a deepening property crisis weighed on factory activity and demand. Industrial profits fell 3.0% in the first 10 months of 2022 from a year earlier, after a 2.3% slump in January-September, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Sunday. Likewise, analysts from Oxford Economics also cut their 2022 and 2023 GDP forecasts as they believe a broadening of lockdown measures is expected. Last month, China's industrial output surged 5.0% from a year earlier, missing expectations for a 5.2% gain in a Reuters poll and slowing from the 6.3% growth seen in September. Industrial profit data covers large firms with annual revenues above 20 million yuan from their main operations.

☆ Fact Check-Election graphs published by Mike Lindell do not indicate U.S. voter fraud
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Reuters Fact Check | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

A series of graphs published by My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell on his social media channels and livestreams appearing to show real-time U.S. midterm election updates do not indicate or prove fraud, experts told Reuters. Lindell published four graphs on his Instagram account purporting to show real-time vote counts during the elections. But such ‘spikes’ seen in graphs using unofficial election data do not indicate or provide proof of fraud, with races rarely officially called on election night (here). The four graphs appearing to show real-time midterm election data do not point to fraud or nefarious activity. Visualizing unofficial vote counts in real-time where the incoming data may be non-uniform in distribution can lead to apparent “spikes” in graphs, experts told Reuters.

☆ Analysis: Amidst the circus, Ronaldo proves ringmaster yet again
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Martyn Herman | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

There had been talk that circus surrounding the five-time Ballon d'Or winner was distracting Fernando Santos's squad. Portugal's fans behind the goal sang his name and gave him another huge ovation when he was substituted in the 88th minute. It is easy to talk about Ronaldo in terms of statistics alone, with so many milestones chalked up. Ronaldo was locked in from the start, working tirelessly to find spaces in and around the massed Ghanaian defence. Importantly for Portugal's chances of going deep in Qatar, it was not just the Ronaldo show as his team mates, especially in the second half, took more responsibility.

☆ China property stocks surged amid warnings of weak reality, high expectations
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

China's housing prices fell in October due primarily to falling prices in less developed, so-called Tier-3 cities, according to Goldman Sachs analysis of official data. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's real estate sector isn't yet poised for a quick recovery, despite a rally this month in stocks of major property developers. Last week, property developer stocks surged after news the central bank and banking regulator issued measures that encouraged banks to help the real estate industry. A drawn-out recoveryAnalysts differ on when China's property market can recover. "I think the real estate sector will become lesser of a drag to the economy in 2023," Tommy Wu, senior China economist at Commerzbank AG, said Wednesday.

☆ Australia jobs beat forecasts, boosting case for more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment rose 32,200 in October from September, when they fell a revised 3,800. That came as a surprise to many analysts who had looked for a gain of only 15,000. Full-time employment jumped 47,100, bringing total job gains for the 12 months to October to a massive 762,000. That would bring the total tightening since May to 300 basis points, easily the most aggressive in modern history. Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Ana Nicolaci da CostaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

But zero-emissions sources accounted for almost 74% of the total increase in generation, with thermal generators, overwhelmingly coal, contributing just 26%. Generation from wind farms increased by 100 billion kWh (22%) compared with the previous year, while output from solar power increased by 45 billion kWh (30%). There were smaller proportional contributions to growth from thermal generators (63 billion kWh, just 1%), hydro-electric units (28 billion kWh, 3%) and nuclear (4 billion kWh, 1%). Wind farm capacity increased 17% while solar capacity increased 29% in the first nine months of 2022, compared with the same period of 2021. In absolute terms, coal-fired generation is still rising, but the growth rate has halved over the last decade, and coal generation has been growing more slowly than generation as a whole.

☆ China Oct new home prices fall at fastest annual pace in 7 years
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

On an annual basis, new home prices slumped 1.6%, the fastest pace since August 2015, worsening from the 1.5% year-on-year fall in September and marking the sixth month of contraction. New home prices declined 0.3% month-on-month, easing 0.2% in September, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. The property sector has struggled with defaults and stalled projects since authorities started to clamp down on excessive leverage in mid-2020, hitting market confidence and weighing on economic activity. Data on Tuesday also pointed to further weakness in the cash-strapped sector, showing real estate investment fell at its fastest pace in 32 months in October. A notice to financial institutions from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) outlined 16 steps to support the industry, including loan repayment extensions, sources said on Sunday.

☆ China's new home prices fall at faster pace in Oct
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

BEIJING, Nov 16 (Reuters) - China's new home prices fell at a faster pace in October as persistent COVID-19 curbs, a faltering economy and property woes weighed on demand, official data showed on Wednesday, but a rescue package for the sector has brightened the outlook. New home prices declined 0.3% month-on-month in October after easing 0.2% in September, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. New home prices slid 1.6% year-on-year in October, falling for the sixth straight month. Prices declined 1.5% year-on-year in September. Reporting by Liangping Gao, Ella Cao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da CostaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Australia wages jump 1.0% in Q3, biggest gain in a decade
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Currently, it expects wage growth to plateaux around 3.9% late next year and into 2024. Another, even larger, rise for aged care workers is set to lift wages in the first quarter of next year. The private sector led the way in the September quarter with a rise of 1.2%, double that of the public sector. That lifted annual growth in private firms to 3.4%, while public jobs lagged at just 2.4% amid government controls on pay. The average size of wage increase for those jobs where wages moved was 4.3%, up from 2.9% a year before.

☆ China's property investment falls at a faster clip in Jan-Oct
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BEIJING, Nov 15 (Reuters) - China's property investment fell at a faster pace during January-October, declining 8.8% from a year earlier after slumping 8.0% in the first nine months of the year. Property sales by floor area dropped 22.3% during January-October from the same period a year earlier, compared with the 22.2% plunge in the first nine months of the year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). New construction starts measured by floor area fell 37.8% year-on-year in the first 10 months of the year, a slightly smaller decline than the 38% drop in the first nine months period. Funds raised by China's property developers fell 24.7%, after a 24.5% drop in the first nine months of the year. Reporting by Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa and Himani SarkarOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ China's October retail and industrial data miss expectations
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Covid cases have soared in China's capital city of Beijing, where many communities have been recently locked down or under tighter health monitoring as the country maintains its zero-Covid policy. BEIJING — Three indicators on China's economy in October missed expectations and marked a slowdown from September, according to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. Retail sales fell by 0.5% in October from a year ago — the first decline since May — and industrial production grew by 5%, the data showed. Analysts polled by Reuters expected retail sales would slow to 1% year-on-year growth in October, and that industrial production would also slow to 5.2% growth. Investment in real estate declined further in October on a year-to-date basis, while that in manufacturing slowed slightly from September.

☆ Stubborn inflation puts Fed on deadline
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Inflation is coming down in the United States, but is still too high for comfort. The year-over-year inflation rate eased more than expected – economists polled by Refinitiv had expected 8% - but the cost of food, energy, and housing still increased dramatically. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned on Nov. 2 that there’s a risk that expectations of higher inflation become entrenched. When Americans expect higher inflation, businesses are inclined to raise prices and workers are liable to ask for higher wages, which amplifies the increase still further. If Powell really wants to tackle the fear of inflation as well as inflation itself, something bolder might be in order.

☆ China Producer Prices Turn Negative in Warning Sign for Global Economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Jason Douglas | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

SINGAPORE—Prices charged by Chinese companies at the factory gate recorded their first annual fall in almost two years, another downbeat signal for the global economy as bulging inventories and cautious consumers in the West hit overseas demand for Chinese-made goods. Chinese producer prices fell 1.3% in October compared with a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday, the country’s first year-over-year decline in producer-price inflation since December 2020.

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