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While an ISM survey offered a tough assessment of U.S. manufacturing conditions, so-called hard data suggest the sector is shuffling along. Federal Reserve data in June showed factory production rebounded in the second quarter, ending two straight quarterly declines. Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending increased solidly last month and May's data was revised higher, boosted by outlays in both single and multifamily housing projects, the Commerce Department said. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Steven Ricchiuto, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, outlays, Commerce Department, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Mizuho Securities USA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, U.S, Natixis Investment, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore
SINGAPORE, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Tuesday but were still near a three-month high reached in the previous session on signs of tightening global supply, as producers implement output cuts, and strong demand in the United States, the world's biggest fuel consumer. A private sector survey also showed on Tuesday that China's factory activity swung to contraction in July, with supply, demand and export orders all deteriorating amid sluggish market conditions. In June, OPEC+ agreed on a broad deal to limit oil supply into 2024, and Saudi Arabia pledged an additional voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day for July. National Australia Bank analysts said they expect Saudi Arabia to extend its voluntary 1 million barrels per day (bpd) supply cut into September. U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have declined last week, according to a Reuters poll which estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 900,000 barrels in the week to July 28.
Persons: Brent, Tina Teng, Teng, Christian Schmollinger, Sonali Paul Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, CMC Markets, Organization of Petroleum Exporting, National Australia Bank, NAB, Energy, Administration, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, United States, ., OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Saudi
A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie," is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto, January 23, 2015. "The (U.S.) dollar is reasserting itself as the champion of the currency market and the Canadian dollar is just caught in that wave," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. S&P Global's measure of Canadian manufacturing activity edged higher last month to 49.6 from 48.8 in June. Canada's employment report for July, due on Friday, could offer further clues on the strength of domestic activity. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, edged lower on signs of profit-taking after a rally in July.
Persons: Mark Blinch, Adam Button, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, greenback, PMI, Canadian, U.S, ., Thomson Locations: Toronto, TORONTO, U.S
Aug 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. A double dose of the U.S. Treasuries and dollar 'pain trade' looks set to put Asian markets on the defensive on Wednesday, with investors also bracing for South Korean inflation figures and an expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Thailand. Several indicators, from big Wall Street banks' client surveys to futures market positioning data, show investors are not positioned for that. The yen has fallen nearly 4% since the BOJ tweaked its seven-year 'yield curve control' policy on Friday. Annual inflation in South Korea, meanwhile, is expected to have slowed to 2.40% in July from 2.70% the month before.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Tuesday's, Deepa Babington Organizations: Bank of Thailand, Bank of, Apple, South, South Korea CPI, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore
Dollar gains after Fed loan survey, yen slips
  + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.28% after trading little changed earlier in the session. The euro retreated from early gains after data showed economic growth in Europe nudged higher and inflation ticked lower. The dollar advanced 0.78% against the yen at 142.250 after a fresh intervention by the BoJ on Monday. The dollar posted its first monthly loss against the yen since March, and its second successive monthly loss against the euro and pound. The euro earlier rose after data showed euro zone inflation fell further in July, while the bloc returned to growth in the second quarter of 2023 with a greater-than-expected expansion.
Persons: Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jackson, Joe Manimbo, Sterling, BoE, Herbert Lash, Alun John, Rae Wee, Himani Sarkar, Kim Coghill, Christina Fincher, Mark Heinrich, Deepa Babington Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Survey, Bannockburn Global, Index, Bank of Japan, China's State, Federal, Market, Central Bank, Rabobank, ECB, Bank of England's, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, New York, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington, Europe, Asia, China, London, Singapore
China wants the yuan to play a bigger global role but hasn't called for it to replace the dollar. China wants to make the yuan the global currency," The Washington Post reported in May. Meanwhile, the Chinese currency is in fourth place, after the Japanese yen. In April this year, Xi again raised China's goal of yuan internationalization in Qiushi magazine, a Chinese Communist Party journal. In Qiushi, Xi said that China was committed to promoting yuan internationalization "in an orderly manner."
Persons: Xi Jinping, Niall Ferguson, hasn't, dollarization, China's, Rory Green, Xi, SWIFT, Liqing Zhang, Zhang Organizations: Service, NPR, Washington Post, Stanford, CNBC, European Central Bank, Communist, TS Lombard, Communist Party, Green, Central Bank of, Media, Communist Party's, Daily, Chinese Communist Party, Securities Times, Central University of Finance, Economics Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Russia, London, Xinhua
China's yuan is expanding its foothold in South America as Bolivia reduces its reliance on the dollar. The country's yuan transactions from May to July accounted for about 10% of its foreign trade in that span. Bolivia has been hit by dollar shortages recently as lower natural gas production hit exports. But the country has been hit by dollar shortages recently as lower natural gas production hit exports. Argentine companies are increasingly turning to China's yuan amid dollar shortages, though many consumers use the dollar in daily purchases as hyperinflation slams the peso.
Persons: Marcelo Montenegro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Organizations: Service, Privacy, Associated Press Locations: South America, Bolivia, Wall, Silicon, South, Argentina, Brazil, China
A new regional cross-border payment system recently implemented by Southeast Asian nations could deepen financial integration among participants, bringing the ASEAN bloc closer to its goal of economic cohesion. A unified cross-border digital payment system will "foster a sense of regionalism and ASEAN-centrality in managing international affairs," he added. How it worksBy connecting QR code payment systems, funds can be sent from one digital wallet to another. For instance, Malaysian tourists in Singapore can make a payment with Malaysian ringgit funds in their Malaysian digital wallet when making a transaction. Or, a Malaysian worker in Singapore can send Singapore dollar funds in a Singaporean digital wallet to a recipient's wallet in Malaysia.
Persons: Joko Widodo, Nico Han Organizations: Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, Analysts, U.S, ., Southeast, Risk Intelligence, Malaysian, Singapore, Bank of International Locations: Jakarta, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, The Philippines, Southeast Asia, Malaysian, Switzerland
Its losing streak could carry on with the Fed taking a "data-dependent approach" to interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would start taking a "data-dependent approach" to rate hikes, with inflation cooling rapidly and the jobs market holding firm. When interest rates stop rising, the dollar becomes less attractive to foreign investors seeking higher yields, meaning the currency is likely to weaken against its rivals. The key number for currency traders to watch going forward will now be the monthly inflationary print, analysts said. If that cooling carries on, the dollar will likely keep sliding – but any flare-up could encourage the Fed to bring in further rate hikes, which could offer some support to the currency.
Persons: that's, Jerome Powell, John Hardy Organizations: Fed, Service, greenback, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon
[1/3] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. Whipsawing as traders digested the decision, the Japanese yen weakened 1.13% versus the greenback and was last at 141.05 per dollar in the New York afternoon session. U.S. annual inflation in June increased by the smallest amount in more than two years, with underlying price pressures moderating. CENTRAL BANK WEEKEarlier this week, the Fed and the European Central Bank announced interest-rate hikes, as expected. The ECB raised the possibility of a pause in September as inflation pressures show tentative signs of easing with recession worries mounting.
Persons: Florence Lo, Karl Schamotta, Adam Button, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin, Laura Matthews, Amanda Cooper, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Jonathan Oatis, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, New York, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, ForexLive, Federal, CENTRAL, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Whipsawing, New, Corpay, Toronto, Japan, Bank of Japan, New York, London, Singapore
The move brings the BOJ more into line with other major central banks, which have been aggressively hiking rates to reduce inflation. The MSCI All Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in nearly 50 countries, rose 0.79% to 705.65 points. U.S. Treasury yields weakened after hitting two-week highs for most maturities the previous session, with yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes down at 3.967% while two-year yields fell to 4.8952%. The yen whipsawed in its most volatile trading session in months following the BOJ's move while the dollar fell against a basket of its major peers. The dollar index fell 0.157%, with the euro up 0.51% to $1.1029.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, It's, Garrett Melson, We're, Melson, Brent, Chibuike Oguh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, of, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Commerce, Investment, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, ECB, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York
Mexican peso hits 7-1/2 year high vs dollar, further gains eyed
  + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The currency, which has been dubbed the "super peso" in some quarters, including by its most prominent cheerleader, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, strengthened by more than 1.3% in morning trading to 16.63 per dollar. "What's happening with the peso right now is due to weakness in the dollar, but also because of optimism surrounding the Mexican peso," said Banco Base analyst Gabriela Siller. "And with this international investors keep buying Mexican pesos and it may keep appreciating," she added. Data pointing to softening U.S. inflation on the one hand and better-than-expected growth data on the other has helped weaken the dollar and boost the peso, which could continue firming to 16.40 to the dollar, Siller said. Reporting by Anthony Esposito and Aida Pelaez-Fernandez, editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Gabriela Siller, Siller, Anthony Esposito, Aida Pelaez, Fernandez, Deepa Babington Organizations: MEXICO CITY, greenback, Federal Reserve, Banco Base, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, America, United States
The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3240 to the greenback, or 75.53 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since July 11 at 1.3249. The data suggests "that underlying momentum is weakening as higher borrowing costs begin to bite," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said in a note. Hopes of a soft landing for the U.S. economy boosted Wall Street and the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports. The 10-year was down 8.1 basis points at 3.536%, while it dropped 4.1 basis points further below the U.S. equivalent to a gap of 43.6 basis points. Reporting by Fergal Smith Editing by Alistair BellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Karl Schamotta, Fergal Smith, Alistair Bell Organizations: greenback, U.S, Bank, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: TORONTO, U.S
BOJ tweak stirs yen volatility; dollar down after U.S. data
  + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
After chopping and changing direction as traders digested the BOJ decision, the Japanese yen weakened 0.70% versus the greenback to 140.43 per dollar in early New York trading session. "This may be the first step towards a credibility crisis for the Bank of Japan and that is really dangerous. This is the first wobble, and the Bank of Japan cannot afford to lose any of its credibility. "The market has largely moved past the inflation story at the moment, and you can see that in today's data," said Button. Earlier this week, the Fed and the European Central Bank hiked policy rates by 25 basis points, as expected.
Persons: Adam Button, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bank of, ForexLive, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: New York, Bank of Japan, Toronto
Why is the US dollar losing its shine?
  + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
CNN —The US dollar’s decline has gained speed this month as investors pare back their interest rate expectations. Last week, that helped lead the US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar versus the British pound, euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, to its lowest level in more than a year. The dollar’s decline could offer some support to tech earnings, further boosting those stocks and in turn the broader rally. Gold prices have risen over 6% this year, supported by sliding Treasury yields and a decline in the dollar. The Dow slips to snap 13-day rallyThe Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell Thursday, cutting short a historic 13-day streak of gains.
Persons: pare, , Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Jones, Seema Shah, “ It’s, Shah, Gold, Dow, Read, Barbie ”, “ Oppenheimer, Matt Egan, “ Barbie, “ Oppenheimer ” Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, Swiss, Canadian, Fed, Microsoft, Apple, Asset Management, Japan, European Central Bank, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Warner Bros Locations: Swedish
Argentina should adopt the US dollar to get inflation under control, the Cato Institute said. "This type of hard dollar regime is exactly what Argentina needs now." This type of hard dollar regime is exactly what Argentina needs now," Cato researchers wrote in a paper published on Thursday. A top presidential candidate has proposed switching to the dollar as a way to tame inflation, which is soaring more than 100%. Other countries use the dollar as their primary currency or alongside a local currency, including some in Latin America.
Persons: Cato, Steve Hanke, Argentina's, Hanke, dollarization Organizations: Cato Institute, Service, Argentine, International Monetary Fund, Johns Hopkins University Locations: Argentina, Wall, Silicon, Latin America
"Any speculations concerning the discussion of new operations of the NDB in Russia are unfounded," the development bank said in a Wednesday statement. The Shanghai-headquartered NDB was founded in 2015 by the "BRICS" nations — that's Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. She said the bank is not considering new projects in Russia as it operates in compliance with international financial and capital restrictions. On Wednesday, she also met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin said in a statement. Mere days after it invaded Ukraine, some Russian banks were banned from SWIFT, the Belgium-based messaging service that lets banks globally communicate about cross-border transactions.
Persons: , Dilma Rousseff, Rousseff, Vladimir Putin, Putin Organizations: New Development Bank, Twitter, Kremlin, SWIFT Locations: Russia, Shanghai, Brazil, India, China, South Africa, Russian, St, Petersburg, Ukraine, Belgium
Money markets are pricing in a peak interest rate of about 5.25% for the Bank of Canada over the coming months, not much less than the 5.42% terminal rate that is priced in for the Fed. Canadian GDP data for May, due on Friday, could guide expectations for additional BoC rate hikes. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3227 to the greenback, or 75.60 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3159 to 1.3236. "The Canadian dollar still looks cheap relative to where it should be," Osborne said, pointing to recent convergence of Canadian and U.S. yields, improved risk appetite and higher commodity prices. The Canadian 5-year yield touched its highest since December 2007 at 4.030% before dipping to 4.019%, up 13.9 basis points on the day.
Persons: Price, Shaun Osborne, Osborne, Fergal Smith, Nick Zieminski Organizations: greenback, Canadian, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Scotiabank, Fed, BoC, Thomson Locations: TORONTO, U.S
SYDNEY, July 26 (Reuters) - Asian markets were trading mostly weaker on Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's expected interest rate rise to be delivered later in the day, as investors also weighed the likelihood of a Chinese economic stimulus package. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was flat, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with mild gains. The two-year yield , which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.8848% compared with a U.S. close of 4.893%. Australia was the only major market across the Asia Pacific region to see shares rise, with the S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) up 0.81%. On Wall Street, the three main indices closed higher, led by gains in shares of technology, materials and communication services companies.
Persons: Karen Jorritsma, Brent, Scott Murdoch, Jamie Freed Organizations: SYDNEY, U.S, U.S . Federal, Nikkei, CSI, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Global, ANZ, RBC Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S ., Asia, Pacific, Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, China, Sydney
Deutsche Bank's emerging market carry strategy index had its best year on record in the 12 months to May. Reuters GraphicsOVERCROWDING FEARSInvestors, however, are becoming concerned the carry trade might be becoming too popular for its own good. "You have to be worried about some of these more crowded positions," said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets. "I think that is big enough to offset any carry trade income," said Yujiro Goto, head of FX strategy for Japan at Nomura. A hypothetical $50,000 invested in a short Norwegian crown, long dollar carry trade in the first three weeks of July would have lost $3,000, according to Refinitiv.
Persons: Refinitiv, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Stephen Gallo, Gallo, James Athey, Yujiro Goto, Oliver Brennan, Brennan, Robin Winkler, Goldman's Trivedi, Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Ankur, Rae Wee, Bernadette Baum Organizations: LONDON, Bank of America, FX, Deutsche, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, BMO Capital Markets, Nomura, BNP Paribas, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics, Federal, Deutsche Bank, Swiss, Reuters, Korean, BNY, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Japan, European, U.S, America, Asia, London, Singapore
While that's driven rallies in risk assets such as stocks, raw materials prices and some commodity currencies have been slower to respond. Reuters GraphicsThe bullish view on commodity currencies gained traction in recent days after leaders in China - the world’s leading commodity consumer - on Monday pledged to step up policy support for the economy. Prices for oil, copper and other raw materials rose on the news, while commodity currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars edged up. Some other commodity currencies have seen similar declines, with the New Zealand dollar down 2% and the South African rand down 3%. Commodity currencies are far from the only way to play further dollar weakness.
Persons: there's, Francesco Pesole, Brent, Thanos Bardas, Neuberger Berman, Bardas, Bipan Rai, Jane Foley, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, Reserve, ING Bank, Australian, Reuters, New, U.S, New Zealand, Deutsche Bank, International Monetary Fund, Bank of Japan, U.S ., CIBC, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Norway, Australia, U.S, Norwegian, China, North America, Sweden
China's state banks usually trade on behalf of the central bank in the country's foreign exchange market, but they could also trade on their own behalf. Policymakers also said China will keep the yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels, and vowed to invigorate the capital market and restore investor confidence. This is in line with the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) further tightening of FX policy recently." The onshore yuan strengthened more than 0.6% to a high of 7.1411 per dollar and was fetching 7.1541 as of 0314 GMT. Its offshore counterpart followed the strengthening trend and surged to a week high of 7.1475 before being last traded at 7.1542.
Persons: Christopher Cushing Organizations: HSBC, People's Bank of China's, greenback, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, China, Shanghai, Beijing
Dollar clings to gains with central banks in focus
  + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The euro was down 0.49% at $1.1069 while sterling was last trading at $1.2823, down 0.25% on the day, kicking off a busy week for central bank meetings with investors expecting rate hikes in Europe and the United States. The Fed concludes a meeting on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday, as well as earnings from many heavyweight companies. The BOJ is the most likely of the three central banks to throw up a market-moving surprise, traders say, with a tweak to its yield curve control policy seen as a possibility. "There's a deep sense of unease around what might come next from the Bank of Japan," said ForexLive's Button.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Adam Button, John Velis, ForexLive's Button, bitcoin, Laura Matthews, Alun John, Tom Westbrook, David Holmes, Jacqueline Wong, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, ForexLive, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Investors, ECB, Fed, BNY Mellon, Reuters, Thomson Locations: York, Europe, Toronto, U.S, United States, Americas, New York
[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. July's reading showed the sixth straight month of growth but was restrained by softening conditions in the service sector. The euro slid after PMI data showed euro zone business activity shrank much more than expected in July. The pound also dropped after British business activity data, but its move was less dramatic. There is plenty more for investors to watch this week - the Federal Reserve concludes a meeting on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later and the Bank of Japan on Friday, as well as earnings from many heavyweight companies.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Manimbo, bitcoin, Laura Matthews, Tom Westbrook, David Holmes, Jacqueline Wong, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, P Global, Washington D.C, ECB, PMI, Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Investors, Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: York, LONDON, U.S, Europe, Washington, United States, New York
Oil rally takes a breather ahead of Fed, ECB rate hikes
  + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SINGAPORE, July 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Monday as traders await more rate hike cues from U.S. and European central banks, with tightening supply and hopes for Chinese stimulus underpinning Brent at $80 a barrel. Fighting also escalated last week in Ukraine after Russia withdrew from a U.N.-brokered safe sea corridor agreement for grains exports. Investors have priced in quarter-point hikes from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank this week so the focus will be on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde say about future rate hikes. Market participants also expect Beijing to implement targeted stimulus measures to support its flagging economy, likely boosting oil demand in the world's No. Last week, U.S. energy firms made their deepest oil rig cut since early June, with operating units down by seven to 530, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.
Persons: Brent, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Suhail, Mazrouei, Baker Hughes, Florence Tan, Tom Hogue Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, National Australian Bank, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, United Arab Emirates Energy, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Ukraine, Russia, China, Beijing
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