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Investors are parsing through data and Fed commentary to determine future rate cuts. On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman explained why she dissented against a deep cut in September. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! Both indexes closed at all-time highs on Monday amid rising outlooks that the Federal Reserve will deliver another half-point interest rate cut in November. To better understand where monetary policy may be headed after the Fed's first rate cut in four years, investors are tuning into Fed commentary and parsing through incoming data.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, , dovish, Michelle Bowman's, Bowman Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Fed, Richmond, Here's Locations: Kentucky
A man walks past the People's Bank of China (PBOC) building on July 20, 2023 in Beijing, China. (Photo by Jiang Qiming/China News Service/VCG via Getty ImagesChina bond yields fell to a record low after the People's Bank of China on Tuesday announced that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Yield on China's 10-year government bonds fell 3.75 basis points to 2.043%, data from LSEG showed, marking a record low. 30-year bond yields also dropped to a record low of 2.168%. In recent months, insurance companies and institutional investors have flocked to China's bond market, partly due to limited investment opportunities available.
Persons: Jiang Qiming, Pan Gongsheng, Pan Organizations: People's Bank of China, China News Service, Getty Images, PBOC, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Beijing, China, Getty Images China, LSEG
A weak consumer confidence reading caused indexes to briefly drop early morning. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Investors reacted with dismay after the latest consumer sentiment reading, with confidence among US consumers logging its largest one-month drop in more than three years. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index came in at 98.7 for September, well below consensus estimates of a 104 reading. Advertisement"It's never good to see consumer confidence fall this much.
Persons: , Jamie Cox, Jensen Huang Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Harris Financial, Federal Locations: China
"Today's policy measures are bold by historical standards," Betty Wang, the lead economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note on Tuesday. Stimulus measures don't address consumptionDespite the fanfare, analysts are divided over whether the moves that ease monetary policy constitute a massive "bazooka" stimulus. AdvertisementMost say the monetary easing policies don't address the lack of confidence contributing to depressed consumer spending. China has pulled out multiple support measures this year to shore up its economy and stock markets, but any kneejerk optimism has been shortlived. Advertisement"Overall, we feel today's measures are a step in the right direction, especially as multiple measures have been announced together rather than spacing out individual piecemeal measures to a more limited effect," Lynn Song, the Greater China chief economist at ING bank, wrote on Tuesday.
Persons: , Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Betty Wang, Wang, it's, Nomura, Lynn Song Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China, Business, Analysts, Oxford Economics, CSI, Nomura, ING Locations: Beijing, China, Greater China
An acceleration of US economic growth is a major risk for investors, says economist Steven Blitz. Blitz warns a "no landing" scenario could lead to inflation rebound and Fed rate hikes. The fed funds rate should be around 4% due to economic resilience, Blitz advises. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAn acceleration of economic growth in the US might be the stock market's worst-case scenario, according to GlobalData TS Lombard chief economist Steven Blitz.
Persons: Steven Blitz, , Blitz Organizations: Service, GlobalData, Federal Reserve
China related stocks were on the move Tuesday after the People's Bank of China said it will cut interest rates. What the Jefferies downgrade misses is the market is giving Starbucks a pass as Niccol builds his team and makes changes. Truist downgraded Club holding Costco to a hold rating ahead of earnings, which are out after Thursday's close. The analysts still have a hold-equivalent rating on Club holding Home Depot but boosted their price target to $400 per share. China related stocks were on the move Tuesday after the People's Bank of China said it will cut interest rates.
Persons: Brian Niccol, Chipotle, Jefferies, Truist, Salesforce, Piper Sandler, Oppenheimer, Regeneron, Eli Lilly, Pinterest, , Jeff Marks, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: People's Bank of, Starbucks, Jefferies, Costco, Walmart, Analysts, Barclays, Constellation Brands, Oppenheimer, Justice Department, Visa, Bloomberg, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: China, People's Bank of China, Japan
The stock market could jump as much as 10% by the year-end, Citi's stock-trading strategy head said. He said the economy only needs to avoid a recession, which will ultimately depend on the labor market. And that is now a plausible scenario," the firm's head of US equity-trading strategy told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. If this is achieved, stocks can surge another 5% to 10% by the end of this year, Kaiser said. But though the Fed emphasized that it was not forecasting a looming downturn during its latest policy meeting, it all hinges on incoming labor market data, he noted.
Persons: Stuart Kaiser, , Citi's Stuart Kaiser, Kaiser, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve
The stock market runs a bigger risk of an unsustainable melt-up, according to Ed Yardeni. AdvertisementStocks run the risk of seeing an unsustainable, dot-com style melt-up, thanks to the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. That move sparked a rally in stocks to fresh records —but it's also raised the odds of a stock market melt-up, he said, meaning investors are now facing the risk of an unsustainable market boom. And while inflation has cooled from its highs several years ago, it is still a risk, Yardeni noted. Advertisement"If they get to overheat the economy and get to create a bubble in the stock market, yeah they're creating some issues," Yardeni added.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, , Stocks, it's, Yardeni, Michelle Bowman, haven't Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Yardeni, Labor Department, Atlanta Fed
US stocks rose Monday, with the Dow closing at a record high amid hopes for more rate cuts. Odds of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting increased to 53%, up from 29% last week. AdvertisementUS stocks gained on Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at record highs as hopes of more Fed interest rate cuts ramped up. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets expect the Fed funds rate to fall to below 3% by the end of 2025, from 4.83% on Monday. That lines up with Kashkari's projection for the long-term Fed funds rate to sit at around 2.9%.
Persons: , Austan Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Goolsbee, Kashkari Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Fed Locations: Chicago
Stock market highs are expected to continue into 2025, according to Oppenheimer's Ari Wald. AdvertisementWald's 6,000 price target for the S&P 500 is based on the median bull market cycle. "The S&P 500 is up 64% over the 23 months between October 2022 and September 2024. And if the current bull market follows the path of the average bull market, stocks could continue to rise through the end of 2025 with the S&P 500 rising to around the 7,000 level. "We view the cycle high for Industrials as confirmation of an intact bull market," Wall said.
Persons: Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, , Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, it's, Wall, " Wald Organizations: Service, New York Stock Exchange, ISI Locations: That's
There are key stock market catalysts on the horizon before November. In a Monday note, Bank of America highlighted the most important days for the stock market between now and the November Presidential election. AdvertisementBank of AmericaNovember 6Technically the day after the election, the most important day for the stock market is November 6, when markets can react to the results. The stock market experienced a similar-sized move on the day after the prior Presidential election, with the S&P 500 jumping 2.2% on November 4, 2020. But now that the Fed has started its cutting cycle, we think labor market data (e.g.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Investors, Fed Locations: United States
It may be time to take another look at municipal bonds. These days, munis are cheap relative to corporate bonds, Bank of America said in a note Friday. "Muni weakness is not the driver here, but rather corporate richness," municipal research strategist Yingchen Li wrote. "We continue to advise investors to take positions while the muni market rally remains slow and ratios are somewhat cheap," he said. Municipal bonds have already had an "impressive" run in recent months, Haskell wrote in a note last week.
Persons: Yingchen Li, Li, Patrick Haskell, Haskell Organizations: Bank of America, BlackRock
Four worries that should keep market bulls awake at night
  + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Investors are still expressing signs of concern despite the stock market hitting all-time highs, according to Deutsche Bank. The S & P and the Dow weren't alone in their milestones. Gold prices also notched a new all-time high following the supersized Fed cut, crossing the $2,600 per ounce level on Friday. Allen also highlighted that traditional valuation metrics are "elevated" considering the "relentless" nature of the market in 2024. Year to date, the S & P has gained nearly 20%, and has risen in 24 of this year's 38 weeks, according to FactSet.
Persons: Dow, Henry Allen, Allen Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, ECB Locations: Ukraine
Investors await key economic data this week, including consumer confidence, revised GDP growth, and the PCE Index. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari defended the recent rate cut and sees more cuts ahead. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average testing record highs as investors prepare for fresh economic data this week. Investors will get consumer confidence data on Tuesday, another revision to second-quarter GDP growth on Thursday, and fresh inflation data on Friday with the release of the personal consumption expenditures index. The chatter comes just a few days after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the end of its policy meeting last Wednesday.
Persons: Dow Jones, Neel Kashkari, , Kashkari Organizations: Dow, Minneapolis, Service, Dow Jones, Federal, Governors, CNBC, Fed, Here's
Here’s what could knock the stock market’s momentum
  + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The S & P 500 also reached an all-time high last week and posted a weekly advance of 1.4%. Here's a look: Valuations The S & P 500 trading near record highs is a double-edged sword, as valuations are also at historically high levels. "The S & P 500 is already trading a little above where it deserves to at year-end 2024." Scott Chronert of Citi also noted that six of the 11 S & P 500 sectors have "valuation composites near/at top decile levels." The S & P 500 has averaged a 2.3% loss in September over the past 10 years, according to FactSet data.
Persons: Stocks, it's, Lori Calvasina, Scott Chronert, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson, Gonzalo Asis, RBC's Calvasina, Citi's Chronert Organizations: Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, RBC Capital Markets, Citi, NBC, Presidential, PCE, Bank of America
As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: It's, Dow, Jim Cramer's takeaways, Cowen, Bernstein, Davidson, Dr Pepper, Morgan Stanley, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Micron, Jefferies, Costco, Nasdaq, Intel, Qualcomm, Apollo Global Management, JPMorgan, Nike, Dow, General Motors, Microsoft, Club, Holdings, Bank of America, Citi, Apple, Barclays, Constellation Energy, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: San Francisco
In today's big story, China isn't proving to be the economic promised land US companies once hoped for . US-China relations have been on shaky ground for a while, to put it mildly. But despite the growing animosity, US corporations' push to sell things to Chinese consumers has been a middle ground everyone can agree on. AdvertisementTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company makes vital hardware components for most the world's chip companies, including industry giant Nvidia. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently said his company has a backup plan if things were to kick off in Taiwan .
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, Tyler Le, Insider's Linette Lopez, It's, that's, Kiran Ridley, Stringer, Getty, Jensen Huang, Huang, Alyssa Powell, Trump, Harris, isn't, Howard Marks, Marks, Rebecca Noble, Vance, Tom Brady, Jeff Bezos, it's, Ryan Routh, Donald Trump, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Jack Sommers, Amanda Yen, Grace Lett, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Service, Business, China Xinhua News Agency, Getty, Apple, Nike, Huawei, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Nvidia, Billionaire, Economic Forum Locations: Washington ,, China, China . US, Washington, Beijing, Taiwan, USA, Florida, New York, London, Chicago
Without the promise of profits, American firms are also becoming less willing to go to bat for China — to reinforce the idea that China's market is crucial to the success of their futures. No demandAfter pandemic lockdowns ended in 2023, the Chinese economy experienced what is known on Wall Street as a "dead cat bounce." What money Chinese consumers are still able to spend is increasingly going to companies that grew up in their home country. Related storiesWhat money Chinese consumers are still able to spend is increasingly going to companies that grew up in their home country. It gives corporations, already under financial pressure as China's economy declines, even less reason to act as interlocutors encouraging stability between Washington and Beijing.
Persons: Washington —, Xi Jinping, Lee Miller, lockdowns, They're, Xi, Yi Gang, Michael Pettis, Tesla, Elon Musk, it's, Ball, Jamie Dimon, It's, China's, Goldman Sachs, Ray Dalio, seeping, Miller, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, , Trump, Biden, we're, Cordell Hull Organizations: Apple, Nike, Chinese Communist Party, People's Bank of, Carnegie Endowment, China Business Council, Starbucks, Street, Bridgewater Associates, Beijing, East Asia State Department, CCP, Trump, State Department, Republicans, Financial, Broadcom, Nvidia, Biden Administration Locations: China, America, Beijing, Washington, American, South China, Taiwan, People's Bank of China, Shanghai
The Fed's interest rate cut will ease financing conditions for homebuilders, analysts told BI. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's rate cut will surely impact the housing market, but its effect likely won't affect arguably the most important part of the equation: keeping affordability tight. But how this translates into a much-needed supply boost is a different story, and there are factors the Fed cut won't fix. Lingering uncertaintiesAdvertisementFor instance, Nanayakkara-Skillington noted that material pricing, from drywall to steel mill products, has weighed heavily on homebuilders since the pandemic.
Persons: , it'll, NAHB's, Skillington, NAHB, Michael Neal, Fitch, Neal Organizations: Service, National Association of Home Builders, Urban Institute senior, Fitch
But many people are still wondering, what does a rate cut mean for my money? For those who’ve been waiting it out, the rate cut “will instill some hope in folks,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet. Consider your (improved) debt repayment optionsThis week’s rate cut was good news for those struggling to unload themselves of credit card debt. They’re a popular savings instrument when interest rates are high, and as most economists expected, CD rates have already started declining since the Fed’s interest rate cut. “This rate cut is not something that should trigger you to go make any drastic changes to the overall direction of your portfolio,” he added.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Elizabeth Renter, Michele Raneri, , “ It’s, Rodney Lake, It’s, cardholders, Now’s, Lake, don’t, Freddie Mac, ” Renter, they’ve, Raneri, Lee Baker, there’s, Bankrate, Baker, it’s, , “ Don’t Organizations: NerdWallet, TransUnion, Federal Trade Commission, GW Investment, George Washington University School of Business, Apex Financial Services, P Locations: U.S
But that has not stopped Trump from recycling some of the same dark portents about a Kamala Harris presidency. Even God was not safe from a Biden presidency, Trump warned. You’re going to have to learn to speak Chinese,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in August 2020. "She wants no Merry Christmas," Trump said. The suburbs are also doomed if Harris wins, Trump told rallygoers last week in Tucson, Arizona, warning that Harris' team "wants to abolish the suburbs."
Persons: , ” Donald Trump, Trump’s, Joe Biden’s, Trump, Kamala Harris, ” Trump, Biden, you’ve, Stocks, Harris, TRUMP, Joe Biden, , Biden’s, God ”, God, Trump's auguring, Hugh Hewitt, “ You’ll, “ Kamala Harris, rallygoers Organizations: , New Hampshire voters, Michigan, National Retail Federation, Republican National Convention, Biden, Fox News, North Carolina rallygoers, Trump, Biden's Locations: America, , Goodyear , Arizona, Nevada, Florida, U.S, Mexico, ” In Ohio, China, United States, Georgia, Wisconsin, Tucson , Arizona, ” America, San Francisco, California, Las Vegas, North Carolina
What lower rates mean for markets
  + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The Fed on Wednesday lowered interest rates, marking the first rate cut since March 2020. A decline in interest rates should, theoretically, mean good news for the stock market. The Fed likely won’t take rates lower as aggressively as they were raised, unless the economy takes a downturn and necessitates loose economic conditions. While mortgage rates and bond yields have begun drifting lower, companies and consumers still might not feel the effects of lower rates right away. But investors with outsized positions in Big Tech stocks should eye beaten-down areas of the market that benefit from lower interest rates, says Diton.
Persons: Dow, Jerome Powell, , Jeff Buchbinder, Powell, Eric Diton Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Fed, Nasdaq, LPL, Wealth Alliance, Tech, Meta, Apple, Big Locations: New York, Big Tech
The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since 2020 helped drive the week's gains. The anticipation and delivery of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since 2020 helped drive the gains this week. The Fed issued a jumbo 50 basis point interest rate cut to "recalibrate" monetary policy, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell put it nine times during his FOMC speech on Wednesday. US stocks soared on Thursday after declining slightly on Wednesday, as investors had more time to digest the Fed's interest rate decision. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both hit record highs on Thursday.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam Organizations: Dow, Federal, Investors, Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Fed, Dow Jones Industrial
Read previewThis as-told-to essay is based on a transcribed conversation with Armand Arton, 47, president of Arton Capital, a financial advisory firm, about golden visas and passports. We advise them about golden visas and golden passports — government programs that offer residency or citizenship rights to foreign investors. AdvertisementDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, many American investors couldn't enter Europe, so they are now looking for residency programs in European countries. After this year's elections in France and the UK, we're also seeing millionaires in those countries looking to relocate. I'd advise wealthy migrants to get in on programs sooner rather than laterThe number of applicants for golden visas increases every year.
Persons: , Armand Arton, couldn't, we're, haven't, I've, It's, Brexit, We've, who've, Irma, Maria, it's, I'd Organizations: Service, Arton, Arton Capital, Business, Caribbean Locations: Europe, France, Hungary, Portugal, Spain, Property, Greece, Italy, England, Germany, UAE, Antigua, Barbuda, Bulgaria, Ireland
Small-cap stocks are poised for a significant rally, Goldman Sachs' Greg Tuorto said. The portfolio manager pointed to lower interest rates and a promising economic backdrop for small-caps. The presidential election could also be a positive catalyst, leading to a catch-up rally, he said. That's according to Greg Tuorto, a portfolio manager at Goldman Sachs Asset Management who says he sees a big "catch-up" rally coming for small-cap stocks. AdvertisementThe Russell 2000 surged 2% after the Fed cut interest rates on Wednesday, with the small-cap index up 12% year-to-date.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Greg Tuorto, , Tuorto, it's, Fundstrat's Tom Lee Organizations: Service, Goldman Sachs, Management, CNBC, Atlanta Fed
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