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☆ China Oct new home prices fall at fastest annual pace in 7 years
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

On an annual basis, new home prices slumped 1.6%, the fastest pace since August 2015, worsening from the 1.5% year-on-year fall in September and marking the sixth month of contraction. New home prices declined 0.3% month-on-month, easing 0.2% in September, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. The property sector has struggled with defaults and stalled projects since authorities started to clamp down on excessive leverage in mid-2020, hitting market confidence and weighing on economic activity. Data on Tuesday also pointed to further weakness in the cash-strapped sector, showing real estate investment fell at its fastest pace in 32 months in October. A notice to financial institutions from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) outlined 16 steps to support the industry, including loan repayment extensions, sources said on Sunday.

Today's EVs run on lithium ion batteries — mostly made with lithium, cobalt, manganese and high-grade nickel, whose prices have soared. The EVs of the future — those arriving after 2025 — could shift to sodium ion or lithium sulfur battery cells that could be up to two-thirds cheaper than today's lithium ion cells. China's CATL (300750.SZ) has said it plans to begin producing sodium ion cells in 2023. Michigan-based Amandarry and British startup AMTE Power (AMTE.L) are developing sodium ion batteries using sodium chloride — basically table salt — as the main cathode ingredient. Battery developers hope they can add sodium ion and lithium sulfur batteries to the range open to the auto industry.

☆ Philippine central bank to raise rates by 75 bps- Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The BSP has already raised its key rate by a total of 225 basis points since May. Three-quarters of respondents, 12 of 16, forecast a 50 basis point rise in December to 5.50%. Six of 16 expected a 50 basis point hike, five expected a 25 basis point move while five others did not expect any move after December. The median forecast shows a higher terminal rate of 5.75% by end-Q1, compared with expectations of 5.00% by end-December in a September poll. Four big banks, Goldman Sachs, Nomura, DBS and UOB, estimated a terminal rate as high as 6.00% while HSBC predicted 6.25%.

☆ China's real estate crisis could be over with new rescue plan. Property stocks are soaring
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN Business —Chinese authorities are making their biggest effort yet to end a crisis in the country’s vast real estate sector that has weighed heavily on the economy over the past year. Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS, described the package of measures as a “turning point” for China’s property sector. Along with other policies announced earlier this year, it could inject more than 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) into real estate, she estimated. In October, sales by the 100 biggest real estate developers contracted 26.5% from a year ago, according to a private survey by China Index Academy, a top real estate research firm. “Beijing’s zero-Covid strategy, despite some latest fine tuning, will continue to weigh on the property sector,” they added.

☆ Japan lives at the bleeding edge of good enough
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida says he will put innovation and scientific research at the “centre” of his policy push. That has meant pushing the $1.3 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund to get involved funding startups while removing policy bottlenecks. In the United States nearly a third of venture capital came from pensions whereas in Japan it is only 3%, according to a Nikkei report. However, the blunting of Japan is due more to its failure to deploy existing tools and best practices than invent new ones. Investing in the future makes for riveting speeches, but Japan Inc will get more from reinventing itself than inventing new things.

☆ China reaffirms zero-COVID stance, city of Guangzhou on edge
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Tony Munroe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] A boy gets tested for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at a nucleic acid testing site, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Shanghai, China, November 9, 2022. "As things stand, it is hard to tell whether Guangzhou will repeat the experience of Shanghai in spring this year. If Guangzhou repeats what Shanghai did in spring, it will lead to a new round of pessimism on China," Nomura analysts wrote in a Thursday note. Mason Long, who works for a Guangzhou gaming company, said some residents were bracing for a lockdown, with many leaving the city or planning to. BE MORE TARGETEDIn Beijing, residents of some areas have been asked to get COVID tests every day this week.

☆ Indian bank stocks' record rally to continue as balance sheets strengthen
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Nupur Anand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A man checks his mobile phones in front of State Bank of India (SBI) branch in Kolkata, India, February 9, 2018. This comes at a time when credit growth is at a multi-year high and bad loans across lenders have reduced significantly. The brokerage said private and state-owned lenders that remained better placed to grow include ICICI Bank Ltd (ICBK.NS), HDFC Bank Ltd (HDBK.NS), Axis Bank Ltd (AXBK.NS), IndusInd Bank Ltd (INBK.NS), Bank of Baroda Ltd (BOB.NS) and State Bank of India (SBI) (SBI.NS). Credit growth is at a multi-year high, with an uptick both in retail and corporate loans. "One key concern going ahead remains how the rising interest rate scenario will impact credit growth."

☆ Covid outbreak worsens in southern Chinese city of Guangzhou
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Guangzhou city in the southern province of Guangdong is the hardest hit in the latest Covid outbreak. BEIJING — Covid infections are surging in the capital of China's export-heavy Guangdong province, raising concerns of another drag on the national economy. Schools in eight of 11 districts in the city of Guangzhou moved classes online for most students as of Thursday. "If Guangzhou repeats what Shanghai did in spring, it will lead to a new round of pessimism on China." State-owned automaker GAC Group said its manufacturers in Guangzhou were operating normally as of Thursday morning.

Results of Tuesday's election remain uncertain, with President Joe Biden's Democratic Party performing better than expected and potentially in position to retain control of the Senate. "This will be de facto gridlock regardless of the outcome," said Brian Gardner, Washington-based strategist for Stifel. But it can also gum up the wheels of basic governance and pose its own set of risks. But it also may have helped trigger the current round of inflation, and has pushed U.S. public debt to record levels. That may mean a more reluctant fiscal response to any coming downturn.

☆ China's factory gate prices suffer first drop since Dec 2020 as COVID curbs take toll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Anant Chandak | Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer inflation also moderated from a 29-month high in September, and underlying price pressures remained much more modest with core inflation rising 0.6% in October, unchanged from September. "However, the worsening of global growth is denting external demand." Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsPOLICY CHALLENGEThe consumer price index climbed 2.1% from a year earlier, easing from a 29-month high of a 2.8% increase in September, mainly driven by falling food prices. Food prices rose 7.0% in annual terms, slowing from 8.8% rise in the previous month, with fresh vegetable prices off 8.1% from a 12.1% rise in September. However, Pork prices - a key driver of the CPI - rose 51.8% year-on-year in October, faster than 36% growth in September.

☆ China's factory gate prices drop for first time since Dec 2020 as COVID curbs take toll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Anant Chandak | Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Chinese property stocks soar on fresh regulatory support
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Xie Yu | Clare Jim | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG (Reuters) -Chinese property developers’ share prices surged on Wednesday after regulators expanded a financing programme aimed at supporting bond issuance in the crisis-ridden sector. REUTERS/Aly SongCIFI Holdings (Group) Co Ltd soared 40% while Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd surged 23%. The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors late on Tuesday said it will widen a programme to support about 250 billion yuan ($34.5 billion) worth of debt sales by private firms, including property developers. The move comes as cash-strapped property developers struggle to tap sources of funding to finish projects and pay suppliers. Still, there will likely be more defaults given weak recovery in property sales, Chen said.

☆ An investment bank used A.I. to analyze Q3 earnings calls. Here's what it found
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Earnings calls — and specifically the questions asked by analysts on the calls — are a better predictor of a stock's performance than management's remarks, research by investment bank Nomura revealed. "This suggests a connection between analyst sentiment and price momentum around the earnings call." One was based on analysts' sentiment from the earnings calls, and the other was based on management's sentiment. But the portfolio measuring analyst sentiment beat the management sentiment portfolio by about 25 percentage points. Third-quarter earnings calls for S & P 500 companies that took place until Nov. 4 were compared against earnings calls of the same period last year.

☆ Guangzhou's COVID outbreak deepens as more lockdowns loom in China
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The increase was modest by global standards but significant for China, where outbreaks are quickly tackled when they surface. Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong province, reported 2,377 new local cases for Nov. 7, up from 1,971 the previous day. "The lockdown situation has continued to deteriorate quickly across the country over the past week, with our in-house China COVID lockdown index rising to 12.2% of China's total GDP from 9.5% last Monday," Nomura wrote in a note on Monday. "We continue to believe that, while Beijing may fine-tune some of its COVID measures in coming weeks, those fine-tuning measures could be more than offset by local officials' tightening of the zero-COVID strategy." In the southwest metropolis of Chongqing, the city reported 281 new local cases, more than doubling from 120 a day earlier.

☆ China's Covid controls are hurting more of the economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

BEIJING — China's Covid situation is only getting worse, preventing the country from stamping out the virus and relaxing controls. As of Monday, China's Covid controls negatively affected 12.2% of national GDP — up from 9.5% a week ago, according to Nomura's model. Recent Covid infections have been reported in more than 20 of China's 31 province-level regions. It was not immediately clear whether there was any impact on factory production in the South China region. China's Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.

☆ Stocks week ahead: How the midterms could affect Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Investors are more than happy when politicians bicker but don’t actually enact any new laws that may hurt corporate profits. If Republicans get the House, tax hikes are dead in the water,” said David Wagner, a portfolio manager with Aptus Capital Advisors. That’s because there are some areas of consensus for the White House and Republican lawmakers. Congress and the White House may spend more time bickering than trying to pass legislation. Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene said on a conference call last week about the midterms that stocks have historically gone up after elections, no matter which party controls the White House and Congress.

☆ This global biotech stock could soar 398% in the next year, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley said Japanese biotech firm SanBio 's stock could rise by 398% in the next year. The bank has a price target of 4,100 yen ($28) on the stock, which closed at 824 yen Thursday. Morgan Stanley's bullish take on the stock, outlined in a note on global equities to clients on Oct. 28 , comes despite a delay in the approval of the company's traumatic brain injury treatment. However, equity analysts covering the pharmaceutical sector at Nomura, Japan's largest investment bank, remain confident that the treatment will be approved. Morgan Stanley's analysts also said the company will raise sufficient capital in its latest funding round and won't require further cash injection from shareholders.

☆ Banks raise Fed terminal rate forecasts after Powell's hawkish tone
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That pushed its fed funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. That terminal rate forecast came down to 4.96% after the release of the Fed's policy statement. Powell told reporters "it is very premature to be thinking about pausing" in the effort to lift the federal funds target rate. Economists at Nomura, meanwhile, raised their terminal rate forecast by 25 basis points to 5.50%-5.75%. "We have greater confidence in our expectations for a higher terminal fed funds level, with fed funds reaching 5.25% by Q1 of next year and holding that level through 2023," they wrote.

☆ China vows commitment to growth as investors bet on easier COVID policy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Even though case numbers are rising and disruptive lockdowns continue with no clear exit strategy in sight, investors latched on to hope that China may ease its strict COVID policy in the coming months. Renewed COVID lockdowns are weighing heavily on China's business activity and consumer confidence. read moreOPEN-DOOR POLICYYi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), said China will continue to deregulate its markets. While other countries have been tightening policy to battle rising prices, China has implemented an accommodative monetary policy to shore up sputtering growth, raising concerns about capital flight. With China's zero-COVID policy expected to remain in place through at least the winter, or longer, its near-term growth outlook is bleak.

☆ China vows commitment to growth as pressure on economy mounts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Renewed COVID lockdowns are weighing heavily on China's business activity, consumer confidence and financial markets, adding to a sharp downdraft on the global economy from surging inflation and rising interest rates. OPEN-DOOR POLICYYi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), said China will continue to deregulate its markets. With China's zero-COVID policy expected to remain in place through at least the winter, or longer, its near-term growth outlook is bleak. After surprisingly high gross domestic product growth of 3.9% in the third quarter, Nomura expects growth to drop again, with zero or even negative sequential growth from the previous quarter. "We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 2.8% year-on-year for the fourth quarter with a corresponding sequential growth forecast at 0.0%."

☆ Storm clouds gather over the pound as focus turns back to dire economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The good news for new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is that few analysts now expect the pound to fall below parity with the dollar. A warm October has helped natural gas prices fall but a cold winter could drive up the cost of Britain's energy imports again, said Jordan Rochester, currency strategist at Nomura. DOLLAR PRESSURENot all strategists think the pound will return to near the lows seen in September. "The global economy is slowing down and heading for a recession and in such a scenario, the U.S. dollar does tend to outperform," said Alvin Tan, a senior currency strategist at RBC. Further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, including on Wednesday, are also likely to support the dollar, he said.

☆ Shanghai Disney visitors told to stay home after COVID case, Foxconn ups bonuses
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SHANGHAI, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Several Shanghai residents received fresh stay-at-home orders and mandatory testing notices on Tuesday as authorities raced to trace contacts linked to a COVID-positive woman whose visit to the city's Disney Resort prompted its temporary lockdown. The Shanghai Disney Resort on Monday abruptly shut its gates, locking in all visitors at the time and only allowing them to leave, hours later, after they had tested negative for the virus. Marvis He was among Disney visitors caught up in the resort's lockdown, having flown in from Shenzhen in hopes of enjoying the park's Halloween themed fireworks. Foxconn has been one of the biggest corporate names affected by a quasi-lockdown of Zhengzhou, a major logistics hub in central China. In recent days, videos appearing to show departing Foxconn workers laden with luggage and walking along village roads towards their home towns have gone viral on Chinese social media.

☆ Fed set to deliver another big rate hike, debate December downshift
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Defining that point, or at least its parameters, will be the subject of intense discussion at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Reuters GraphicsAnd during that time, Fed policymakers, with the notable exception of Powell, have offered a range of views on where they stand on a possible slowdown or even pause to rate hikes. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, for instance, said she'll look for signs that inflation is moving down before she would want to reduce the pace of rate hikes. Reuters Graphics'NEED TO BE CONVINCED'Bets in futures markets weigh heavily in favor of a slowdown in rate hikes starting in December, but ultimately a top Fed policy rate of 4.75%-5.00%, slightly higher than policymakers themselves have flagged, by early next year. Fed policymakers, Reinhart said, are also well aware that monetary policy typically goes too far.

☆ Asia bond funds dump China in favour of cash after high-yield rout
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Summer Zhen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Many holders of China high yield bonds have seen them trading below 20 cents on the dollar. The in-default bonds of property company Sunac China (1918.HK) maturing in 2025 trade at 6 cents to a dollar. The average return of the top 10 Asia high yield bonds is down more than 30% this year, Morningstar data shows, of which Fidelity Funds' Asian High Yield Fund and UBS's SICAV - Asian High Yield (USD) had shed more than 40% as of Oct. 27. Value Partners’ Greater China High Yield Income Fund was down 37% as of the end of September. While there are select bonds that have upside, China high yield as an asset class is currently “uninvestable", she said.

☆ China's factory, services activity skids on relentless COVID curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.2 from 50.1 in September, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Monday. The poll showed China's growth could pick up to 5.0% in 2023. DEMAND WEAKENSThe manufacturing PMI survey pointed to weakening demand with the new orders subindex showing contraction for the fourth straight month. The official manufacturing PMI largely focuses on big and state-owned firms. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Tuesday.

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