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☆ Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%. With home prices expected to rise this year and rents falling only slowly, the long-awaited fall in shelter prices isn't coming to the rescue any time soon," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty ImagesAirline fares posted a 3.6% increase, apparel prices rose 0.6% and used vehicles were up 0.5%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Robert Frick, February's, Patrick T, Fallon, Jerome Powell, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dow, BLS, Navy Federal Credit Union, AFP, Getty, North, Capital Economics Locations: Redondo Beach , California, North America

☆ Polls Missing US Economy's Strength Will Make the Next Recession Worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( George Pearkes | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

By underweighting the experience of certain groups — especially lower-income or frontline workers — policymakers could learn the wrong lessons from the post-pandemic economy. The Great DivergenceIf you ask Americans how the economy is doing, the general sentiment can be summed up in one word: bad. Similarly, the Conference Board's consumer confidence data isn't quite at its post-Great Recession lows, but it's far below its 2017-19 average. The ASEC data uses a very large sample to provide the best possible insight into households' economic well-being, with more than 75,000 households participating. Similarly, the focus on the prospect of a recession soared, even outdoing the period in 2020 when the economy was actually in a recession.

Persons: it's, —, Pew Organizations: University of, Conference, Labor Statistics, Government, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NFL, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, BLS, Census, Federal Locations: telemarketers, nonresponses

☆ Undocumented immigrants are boosting the labor market and helping the US avoid recession, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Undocumented immigration has boosted the labor market, helping steer the US away from a recession, some experts say. Morgan Stanley's chief US economist has also recently cited undocumented immigration as a positive labor-market force. AdvertisementHere's a question that's been lurking beneath the stellar economic resilience in the US: how has the labor market stayed so strong? "It has boosted the labor force, it has boosted supply for labor, it has boosted job gains. AdvertisementThe labor market has recorded gains stronger than that, posting an addition of 275,000 jobs in February.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, —, Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson, Watson, Ellen Zentner, Zentner Organizations: Brookings Institution, Service, Congressional, Office, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Brookings

☆ Prices ticked higher in February, but there’s good news at the grocery store
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Overall, the closely watched inflation gauge showed that prices rose by 3.2% for the 12 months ended in February, the BLS said Tuesday. That monthly pace was right in line with the 0.4% increase that economists were expecting, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Still, there was some good news for Americans: For the first time since April 2023, overall food prices did not rise. Grocery prices held flat, while “food away from home” (restaurants) ticked up last month by just 0.1%. On an annual basis, overall food price inflation slowed to 2.2%, the lowest rate since May 2021.

Persons: That’s, Stocks Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BLS, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: New York

☆ Now comes the hard part for the Fed to achieve its goal of getting inflation to 2%
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Core services costs excluding housing services — "supercore" inflation, as it has become known — remain elevated but at least the pace of increase, at 0.5%, has eased. "The 'last mile' problem for the central bank is the inflation in service prices, which is partly attributed to the tight labor market in sectors such as healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and construction. "This type of inflation, often termed 'cost-push inflation,' may not react straightforwardly to changes in interest rates." "Wage growth was significantly slower, the labor market wasn't as tight," PNC's Faucher said. "It wasn't that long ago, but it was a different economy than it is now, with some of those [current] post-pandemic effects of the tight housing market and the tight labor market."

Persons: Gus Faucher, Dow Jones, Sung Won Sohn, PNC's Faucher, Faucher, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, That's Organizations: Federal, PNC Financial Services, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Fed, JPMorgan, Monday

☆ Inflation unexpectedly creeps up
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

CPI also increased 0.4% month over month. AdvertisementConsumer price index data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Tuesday showed inflation, by this measure, unexpectedly accelerated slightly in February. AdvertisementCore CPI only increased 0.4% from January to February, or matching the previous surge of 0.4%. The food index slowed from a year-over-year increase of 2.6% in January to an increase of just 2.2% in February. The energy index saw another year-over-year decline, a decline of 1.9% in February following a decline of 4.6%.

Persons: —, That's, It's, Nick Bunker Organizations: CPI, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, of Labor Statistics

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for February 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation is down from its hottest point in 2022, but is still warm, considering the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Real wages are on the rise, said Hamrick, which means people are seeing wages adjusted for inflation. When interest rates may subsideOne factor that affects how well Americans are doing — for better or for worse — is interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year, after having executed a series of rate increases to tamp down inflation. "We don't perceive there to be like an imminent pressure on the Fed to cut rates," such as a recession or sudden rise in unemployment, Doyle said.

Persons: Elijah Nouvelage, Mark Hamrick, David Doyle, Doyle, Hamrick Organizations: Kroger, AFP, Getty, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Federal Locations: Atlanta, Macquarie

Rising gasoline and housing prices led inflation to increase 0.4% in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. The food index was unchanged in February, as was the food at home index. Meanwhile, a recent report on consumer spending from Mastercard found that retail sales excluding autos were up in February, with online retail sales up more than 9.1%. The Census Bureau is scheduled to release retail sales for February on Thursday with analysts looking for a strong 0.8% increase after January's drop. “A dip in retail sales to start the calendar year is common, however, this year January retail sales marked the biggest decline since March of last year,” said Chip West, retail and consumer behavior expert at Vericast.

Persons: ” Joseph Brusuelas, ”, Chip Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal, “ Services, RSM, Mastercard, Apparel, Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of, Blue Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

☆ Layoffs could be coming as debt-laden firms navigate the pain of higher rates, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That's because aggressive Fed rate hikes haven't been fully felt across the economy. AdvertisementA wave of layoffs could be coming as companies deal with the reality of higher interest rates, economists say. The peak unemployment rate during the Great Recession was 10% in 2009. Following revisions to the prior two months' figures, the unemployment rate also rose to 3.9% in February, its highest level in two years. The unemployment rate is a classic lagging indicator."

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, what's, Steve Briggs, Briggs, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Briggs, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fitch

☆ Everyone is worried about inflation. Here’s why it’s tracked two different ways
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Housing, housing and more housingThe housing sector carries more than four times as much weight in CPI compared to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. But, with PCE, housing has a much more limited impact on the inflation index. Both indexes are faulted for using this metric to calculate housing inflationBoth indexes use a widely criticized metric called owners’ equivalent rent (OER) to track housing inflation. But it can often take months for these trends to show up in either the PCE or CPI housing indexes. Another issue with using OER to track housing inflation is that it doesn’t really affect homeowners.

Persons: Joe Biden, Frederic J . Brown, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Cleveland Federal Reserve, PCE, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Getty, Commerce Department, Bank of America Locations: New York, November’s, AFP

☆ Tech workers reported feeling increasingly dissatisfied with their salaries. Layoffs may be fueling the frustration.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Aaron Mok | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Researchers at the tech job board surveyed 6,166 of the site's registered users and visitors near the end of 2023 to understand how tech workers feel about their salaries. But despite making almost double the amount the typical American does, tech workers surveyed reported feeling increasingly dissatisfied with their salaries. Tech workers early in their careers reported feeling more dissatisfied with how much they make than those with over 15 years of experience. "Now that companies are right-sizing staff and their salaries, they're also limiting bigger increases on salaries that became standard in previous years." Still, challenging economic conditions don't necessarily mean it's impossible for tech workers now to land a highly coveted, well-paying job.

Persons: —, Dice, they're, J.T, O'Donnell, that's Organizations: Service, Business, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tech, Meta, Google Locations: Silicon Valley

☆ A key inflation reading is due out Tuesday morning. Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Excluding food and energy, the increase for core inflation, is forecast at a 0.3% gain, also one-tenth of a percentage point above the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is expected to show a 3.1% gain and core inflation a 3.7% increase when the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest reading on the consumer price index Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. On the brighter side, House said lower prices on travel, medical care and other services helped keep inflation in check. Still, Wells Fargo has raised its full-year inflation forecast. Focusing on the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred Fed gauge, Wells Fargo sees inflation at 2.5% for the year, versus a prior estimate for 2.2%.

Persons: Elijah Nouvelage, Dow Jones, Sarah House, Wells, Wells Fargo Organizations: Kroger, AFP, Getty, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, AAA, CPI, Wells, New York Fed Locations: Atlanta , Georgia, Wells Fargo, isn't

☆ Why are prices still so high? Corporate greed, some say.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Tami Luhby | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

While supply chain problems and high demand may have helped spur inflation early in the pandemic, Rosolino believes there’s another key reason why prices have soared and remained high: Corporate greed. It’s corporate greed.”Nick Rosolino feels businesses won't lower their prices as long as consumers keep spending. “Too many corporations raise prices to pad their profits, charging more and more for less and less,” Biden said. Companies are typically slower to reduce their prices when costs decline than they are to raise prices when their expenses jump. Corporate profits have contributed to inflation, though experts differ on the extent.

Persons: Nick Rosolino, Rosolino, there’s, ”, “ It’s, Nick Rosolino Reluctantly, Joe Biden, “, ” Biden, Cookie Monster, Lael Brainard, Goldman Sachs, Neil Bradley, Heather Vargas, ” Vargas, ” Heather Vargas, Heather Vargas Vargas, –, Kellogg, Gary Pilnick’s, Companies haven’t, Aaron Hackman, McKinley Conner, Aaron Hackman “, Hackman Organizations: CNN, America, White, Economic Council, Federal Reserve, Companies, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, US Chamber of Commerce, of Labor Statistics, “ Locations: Maine, New Gloucester , Maine, Portland, Heights , California, Fort Lauderdale , Florida

☆ California is putting up minimum wages to $20 an hour for fast-food chains – and it's likely going to drive up wages in other industries, too
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Grace Dean | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewCalifornia is raising the minimum wage for fast-food workers to $20 an hour – and a much wider group of employees could see bigger paychecks. If limited-service restaurants raise their wages, "everybody is going to have to adopt because it's a free market," Danilo Gargiulo, a Bernstein analyst, said. Fast-food and fast-casual chains have already said they plan to raise their menu prices in California to offset the higher wages. The Cheesecake Factory's CFO Matt Clark told investors in November that the minimum wage could have a "ripple effect" beyond just limited-service restaurants. He added that the legislation would cause the price gap between limited- and full-service restaurants to narrow.

Persons: —, Brian Vaccaro, Raymond James, It'll, Andy Barish, Danilo Gargiulo, Bernstein, Matt Clark, Clark, Vaccaro, Sharon Zackfia, William Blair, Greg Levin, we've, Levin, they're, Zackfia Organizations: Service, Business, Jefferies, US Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: California, pretzels . California

☆ Bank of America's top global strategist shares 4 signs that a bubble continues to grow in US stocks — and 4 indicators to know when to get out of the market
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Bank of AmericaIn the note, Hartnett laid out more evidence that a bubble could be developing in stocks. The current real 10-year rate is 1.6%, according to Fed data. Hartnett said a falling number of job quitters shows a weakening labor market, hence the Fed's apparent willingness to cut rates soon. February's inflation data will be released next week, but January's data showed that prices are still rising at a pesky pace of 3.1%, above the Fed's stated goal of 2%. Whether a Fed pivot is a good thing for investors depends on just how cool labor market data becomes.

Persons: —, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, quitters, Alejandra Grindal, Ned Davis, it's, Grindal Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, PHLX Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Semiconductor, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Bank of America's, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Ned, Ned Davis Research

Mortgage rates fell this week and are now back down to where they were early last month. This means that, as many experts have predicted, mortgage rates should go down in 2024. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, average 15-year mortgage rates were 6.22%, a four-basis-point decrease from the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. Once the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates should fall even further.

Persons: we're, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: Chevron

☆ Unemployment fell for Black women in February as more joined the labor force
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesUnemployment among Black women fell in February as the number of those looking for work increased, data released Friday by the U.S. government showed. Adult women age 20 and older in the labor force followed that trend, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.5% from 3.2%. The percentage of unemployed Black women, however, fell to 4.4% from 4.8%. She pointed to the decrease in the unemployment rate, while the employment/population ratio edged higher to 60.6% from 59.9%. "We saw increases in health care and government services, which are sectors where we see a significant number of Black women being employed," she said.

Persons: Joe Raedle, Valerie Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Getty, U.S, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Locations: Miami, U.S

☆ Harvard researchers think they know why the booming economy still isn't being felt by average Americans
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Now, a group of them has created an interesting model that suggests much of people's dissatisfaction with the economy comes down to interest rates. In fact, the impact of rising interest rates isn't directly accounted for anywhere in the official CPI report — even though they've also contributed to surging car payments and made credit card debt much more costly. That's why the economists developed their own inflation measure, and they think it provided a more accurate prediction of economic sentiment. Cramer said additional evidence for the impact of interest rates on consumer sentiment has come in recent months. Between November and January, the Michigan consumer sentiment index saw its biggest two-month increase since 1991 — just as mortgage rates fell from their recent peak.

Persons: —, Judd Cramer, Larry Summers, they've, hasn't, Harvard's Cramer, Cramer, pocketbooks, it's, Joe Biden's Organizations: Service, Business, National Bureau of Economic Research, Harvard University, International Monetary Fund, of Labor Statistics, University of, Harvard, BLS, Federal, CPI, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan

☆ Job growth beats estimates, unemployment rate hits 2-year high
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Madison Hoff | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewFebruary's job growth was strong and similar to January's revised job gain. According to Friday's news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US experienced job growth of 275,000 in February. Additionally, December's job growth of 333,000 stated in the February release was updated to 290,000 in the new report. Leisure and hospitality saw large job growth in February, with an increase of 58,000. Pollak also pointed out the large job gains seen in December and January were revised downward and an increase in the unemployment rate in February.

Persons: —, Labor Julie Su, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Nick Bunker, Bunker, That's Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Labor, BLS, North, Labor Statistics Locations: America, North America

☆ Dollar ends week under pressure as data keeps rate cut hopes alive
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February after holding at 3.7% for three straight months, the data showed. The euro got a lift this week as the dollar came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded more confident about cutting interest rates in coming months. Currencies typically weaken if central banks lower interest rates. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.68% lower at 147.05 yen, its weakest since Feb. 2. Firming hopes that interest rates in the U.S. and Europe will start to fall in June also helped prop up the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Stuart Cole, Cole, Powell, Lindsey Bell, Kathleen Brooks, Sterling, BoE, Firming, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Equiti, ECB, Federal, Ventures, Bank of, Reuters, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, New Locations: Japan, Charlotte , North Carolina, Bank of Japan, U.S, Europe, New Zealand

☆ U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rose to 3.9%
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowJob creation topped expectations in February, but the unemployment rate moved higher and employment growth from the previous two months wasn't nearly as hot as initially reported. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The jobless level increased as the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 184,000 in those employed. The increase came even though the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%, though the "prime age" rate increased to 83.5%, up two-tenths of a percentage point. An alternative jobless measure, sometimes called the "real" unemployment rate, that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons rose slightly to 7.3%.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Stocks, It's, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Dan North, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Government, Futures, Allianz Trade, Capitol

☆ Key takeaways from the latest jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

“The economy remains strong, held up by a robust labor market,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a note Friday. Still, Friday’s jobs report also showed that the whopping gains initially recorded for January and December were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs. January’s job gains now sit at an estimated 229,000 (down from the blowout 353,000); and December’s job growth at 290,000 (down from 333,000). In February, that included construction (up 23,000 jobs); transportation and warehousing (up 19,700 jobs); and retail (up 18,700 jobs). Friday’s jobs report showed that wage growth is indeed slowing.

Persons: ”, Christopher Rupkey, FwdBonds, “, ” Robert Frick, —, ” Diane Swonk, Swonk, February’s, ” Frick, Julissa Carielo, ” Swonk, Gus Faucher, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Janet Yellen, CNN’s Kate Bolduan, they’re, ” Yellen, Price, CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, KPMG US, Health, Baby Boomers, Transportation Security Administration, DreamOn, Inc, Boomers, Fed, Labor, Federal, PNC Financial Services, “ Fed Locations: New York, San Antonio , Texas, Texas

☆ What to expect in Friday’s jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —Don’t be surprised if Friday’s jobs report shows that February’s employment gains were far below those reported for January. In fact, it would continue a history-making stretch of labor market expansion. Friday’s jobs report could very well provide a more reliable read on what’s actually happening in the labor market than the jobs reports of recent months’ past, Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told CNN. “And so, February might give us a better understanding of the underlying rate of job growth,” she said. What the other labor market data is showingOther economic data released this week reinforces the idea that the US labor market is cooling but remains on solid footing.

Persons: New York CNN — Don’t, Julia Pollak, autoworkers, what’s, hasn’t, Nixon, ” Ron Hetrick, Gus Faucher, stayers ”, Faucher, ”, ” Nela Richardson, outplacement, ” Andrew Challenger, Lydia Boussour, EY, “ Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services, BLS, Labor, Boomers, ADP, Challenger, ”, Labor Department Locations: New York, US

Mortgage rates have receded a bit this week, with average 30-year mortgage rates hovering around 10 basis points below last week's average at 6.59%,according to Zillow data. Depending on how some upcoming economic reports turn out, we could see mortgage rates inch down a little further in March. Now that the Fed is considering cutting rates this year, many experts believe that mortgage rates will go down soon. This is a key gauge of inflation, and the results of this report could also cause some volatility with mortgage rates. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

Persons: you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Chevron

☆ Private payrolls rose by 140,000 in February, less than expected, ADP reports
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Private sector job growth improved during February though growth was slightly less than expected, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added 140,000 positions for the month, an increase from the upwardly revised 111,000 in January but a bit below the Dow Jones estimate for 150,000. Other industries showing solid gains included trade, transportation and utilities (24,000), finance (17,000) and the other services category (14,000). Of the total, 110,000 came from the services sector while goods producers added 30,000. In recent months, ADP has consistently undershot the closely watched report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed an increase of 353,000 in January, more than triple the ADP estimate.

Persons: Dow Jones, Nela Richardson Organizations: Companies, Labor, ADP, Bureau of Labor Statistics

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