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Erdogan got 49.5% in Sunday's vote and fell just short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff in a vote seen as a referendum on his autocratic rule. But many of his supporters, including first-time voter Asim, were gloomy about Kilicdaroglu's chances in the runoff vote. The election is being closely followed in Washington, Europe and across the region, where Erdogan has asserted Turkish power. Opinion polls had shown Erdogan trailing Kilicdaroglu, but Sunday's outcome suggested he and his Islamist-rooted AKP were able to rally conservative voters despite Turkey's economic woes. Kilicdaroglu and his alliance want to restore a parliamentary system of government and scrap the powerful executive presidency introduced by Erdogan.

☆ Twitter objects to Turkish court orders after pre-election warnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ISTANBUL, May 16 (Reuters) - Twitter said it had filed objections to Turkish court orders requesting a ban on access to some accounts and tweets on the platform, after keeping its service available during an election weekend despite warnings from authorities in Ankara. The court orders, which were shared by Twitter, requested the access bans on the grounds that they posed a threat to public order and national security. "So in order to keep Twitter available over the election weekend, we took action on four accounts and 409 Tweets identified by court order." Twitter said five court orders had been issued against it regarding these actions and it had already objected to four of them. Social media companies are required to appoint Turkish representatives and they face bandwidth being throttled by up to 90% immediately after a court order should the representative fail to provide information to the authorities.

☆ Turkey's market rout deepens after Erdogan's strong election showing
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Libgeorge Canan Sevgili | Canan Sevgili | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Ahead of the elections, opinion polls had showed Kilicdaroglu in the lead, and investors expected him to scrap some of Erdogan's economic policies, including costly efforts to prop up the lira currency. Longer-dated, dollar-denominated government bonds saw the biggest falls in fixed income markets, although key corporate and banking sector bonds also edged lower. Credit ratings agency Fitch said the political and economic uncertainty would continue at least until after the runoff. Banking stocks, which had surged in the week ahead of the election on hopes of a policy change, tumbled another 8% (.XBANK) to take their losses since the election to nearly 20%. The overall Istanbul bourse index (.XU100), which had notched a 6.1% fall on Monday, its largest daily percentage drop since early February, was mostly flat.

☆ Does British tourism really need the royal family?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Ross Bennett-Cook | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Love them or loathe them, the royal family are up there with red telephone boxes and scones when it comes to images of Britishness. The royal family does bring tourism to the UK. But if the royal family were to disappear, would the UK’s tourism industry suddenly implode? And while the international perception of Britain is certainly intertwined with the royal family, this does not tell us whether a reigning royal family is necessary for tourism. After all, the history surrounding the monarchy and places associated with them would still be here even if the royal family was not.

☆ Turkish Election Goes to Runoff After Erdogan Takes Lead in First Round
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Jared Malsin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan will face opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the second round of the presidential election on May 28. WSJ’s Jared Malsin explains what’s at stake. Photo: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty ImagesISTANBUL—Turkey will hold a runoff presidential election later this month, officials said Monday, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emerging from this weekend’s polls with a surprise advantage over his main challenger in a vote with far-ranging domestic and geopolitical implications. Mr. Erdogan won 49.51% and his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu had 44.88% in the first round of the election on Sunday, with all of the votes counted, according to the head of the Turkish Supreme Election Council.

☆ Erdogan Ahead of Challenger as Turkey Appears Headed for Runoff Election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Jared Malsin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wave flags and banners in Ankara. Photo: necati savas/ShutterstockISTANBUL—Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged with a surprise advantage in a fight for his political survival, pulling ahead of his main challenger in Sunday’s election ahead of a likely runoff ballot that could have far-ranging domestic and geopolitical implications. As of Monday morning, Mr. Erdogan had won 49.40% of the votes counted so far and his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu had 44.96%, according to the head of the Turkish Supreme Election Council. The head of the election board said 99% of the ballot boxes had been entered into the agency’s central system.

"The winner has undoubtedly been our country," Erdogan said in a speech to cheering supporters at the headquarters of his ruling Islamist-rooted AK Party in the capital Ankara overnight. Going into the election, the opposition had sensed its best chance yet of unseating Erdogan, encouraged by polls showing him trailing his main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. But the results suggested Erdogan and his AK Party had been able to rally conservative voters despite a cost-of-living crisis. [1/4] Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and AK Party (AKP) gather on election night, in Istanbul, Turkey May 15, 2023. "During the campaign period ahead of the runoff, President Erdogan is likely to emphasise stability as he already retains the majority in the parliament," Dalay said.

☆ Turkey Election Maps: Why Erdogan Is Headed For a Runoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Lauren Leatherby | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

Central Turkey, a stronghold for Mr. Erdogan, voted mostly in the president’s favor. Mr. Erdogan appeared to have the edge as he heads into the runoff on May 28. 2023 Erdogan vote share compared to 2018 Lower Erdogan vote share Higher Erdogan vote share Mersin Diyarbakır Antalya Kayseri Gaziantep Izmir Bursa Samsun Konya Adana Ankara Istanbul In the areas hit hardest by the earthquake in February, most provinces shifted away from Mr. Erdogan. Presidential election results by year Candidates need 50 percent of vote to avoid a runoff election 2014 Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan 51.8% Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu Ihsanoglu 38.4% Selahattin Demirtas Demirtas 9.8% 2018 Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan 52.6% Muharrem Ince Ince 30.6% Selahattin Demirtas Demirtas 8.4% Meral Aksener Aksener 7.3% 2023 Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan 49.5% Kemal Kilicdaroglu Kilicdaroglu 44.9% Sinan Ogan Ogan 5.2% Sources: Supreme Election Council, Anadolu Agency (unofficial election results). The vote was in many ways a referendum on the performance of Mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s dominant politician for 20 years.

☆ Analysis: Why Erdogan's fate matters to Biden and the US
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Erdogan’s fate will have major implications not just for his country’s democracy, which he has worked to weaken, but for US foreign policy too. “Our people should be confident that we will definitely win, and we will bring democracy to this country,” he said. Biden’s entire presidency has unfolded in the shadow of autocrats, assaults on democracy and aspiring strongman leaders – abroad, and most remarkably at home. Biden confronts a threat from democracy at homeBut none of those leaders pose an existential threat to US democracy. Ahead of the election, Kilicdaroglu was talking in very similar terms about the need to preserve democracy as Biden does in the US.

☆ Turkey’s opposition faces an uphill battle in runoff with Erdogan
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Tamara Qiblawi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Istanbul CNN —A hushed silence fell over the crowd outside the Istanbul headquarters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development (AK) party. Sullen faces turned to the election count on the large screen — Erdogan’s vote had dropped below the 50% threshold needed to clinch the first round of Sunday’s historic election. Erdogan secured a five-point lead over his principal opponent, destining them to a run-off vote. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and his wife Emine Erdogan meet supporters outside a polling station in Istanbul, Turkey May 14, 2023. Then our President Erdogan saves us.”Ahead of the run-off vote, Erdogan now has two weeks in which to save himself – and all the indications are that he begins, as ever, from a place of strength.

We are experiencing the result of this marathon with you tonight," Erdogan, 69, told thousands of flag-waving supporters from the balcony of his party's headquarters. But Erdogan, a veteran of a dozen election victories, emerged comfortably ahead of Kilicdaroglu, though just short of the majority needed to win. The outcome reflects the strong support Erdogan still commands, especially in religiously conservative regions where voters long felt marginalised by a once-dominant secular elite. Over two decades, Erdogan has redrawn Turkey's domestic, economic, security and foreign policy, rivalling historic leader Mustafa Kemal Ataturk who founded modern Turkey a century ago. Erdogan's government said the purge was justified by threats from coup supporters, as well as Islamic State and the PKK.

☆ Turkey faces unprecedented election runoff after Erdogan looks unlikely to win outright
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attend a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 12, 2023. Turkey's presidential election could be headed for an unprecedented runoff, as neither 20-year incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu had secured an outright win Monday morning. A candidate must get more than 50% of the vote to win the highly-charged race. If no one passes that threshold, the vote goes to a runoff election in the coming weeks. Whereas Kilicdaroglu, who is representing a united front of six different opposition parties all seeking to unseat Erdogan, vowed to win the election in a second round of voting.

☆ Turkish lira sinks to new record low on possibility of Erdogan re-election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Turkish lira slipped 0.5% to trade at 19.70 against the US dollar, a record low. The uncertainty has investors in Turkish government bonds worrying about the country’s ability to pay them back. Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate at the AK Party headquarters on May 14, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. Annual consumer price inflation surged to 85% in October, before slowing to 44% in April, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute shows. “A victory for President Erdogan, which now looks like the base case scenario… would be negative for Turkey’s macroeconomic stability and financial markets,” Peach added.

Istanbul, Turkey CNN —Turkey will have a runoff election on May 28 after longtime leader President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced into a second round with only a narrow lead over his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Neither candidate achieved the required 50% to take the presidency outright, but Kilicdaroglu now faces a tough battle to win the second round after Erdogan performed better than some opinion polls had suggested. With the final count, the electorate will turn to a second round of voting that could extend Erdogan’s 20-year grip on power, or set the stage for a change in political direction. “If our nation says second round, we gladly accept it. We will absolutely win this election in the second round.

☆ UN efforts to save Black Sea grain deal to continue in coming days
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Michelle Nichols | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The final two ships are due to leave Ukrainian ports on Tuesday under the Black Sea deal, said a U.N. spokesperson. "The (Black Sea) Initiative refers to the export of ammonia, but this has not yet been realized," Griffiths said. "While Russia keeps Ukrainian grain supplies from feeding the hungry, Russia is successfully exporting its own bumper crop of grain," Deputy U.S. 'CRUCIAL'Nebenzia again complained that not enough poor countries were benefiting from the Black Sea grain deal. Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered to deliver Russian grain and fertilizers free of charge to African countries.

But for the next two weeks, he may become the most important figure in Turkish politics, potentially deciding President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political fate. Preliminary results from the YSK showed Erdogan as having received 49.51% of the vote, while Kilicdaroglu had 44.88%. Ogan, the third candidate, received 5.17%, enough to swing the runoff vote in favor of either of the candidates. But his political career began with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), where he spent six years before splitting with it, partly due to its growing closeness with Erdogan’s AK Party, according to Turkish media. Formerly in the opposition, the MHP joined the People Alliance that is led by Erdogan’s AK Party in this election.

☆ ANALYST VIEW Markets tumble as Turkey faces runoff election after Erdogan leads first round
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wave flags outside the AK Party headquarters, in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. DEBT: Five-year credit default swaps jumped over 100 basis points from Friday and dollar bonds fell more than 7 cents. STOCKS: Borsa Istanbul issued a market-wide circuit breaker after the benchmark index (.XU100) dropped 6.38% in pre-market trading and was last down 2.7%. PIOTR MATYS, SENIOR FOX ANALYST, IN TOUCH CAPITAL MARKETS, POLAND:"When/if President Erdogan is re-elected, the lira should be trading far more freely. CLEMENS GRAFE AND BASAK EDIZGIL, GOLDMAN SACHS, LONDON:"The (rates and CDS) market dynamics post the initial move will be dependent on the FX market.

☆ Erdogan's milestones as Turkey faces May 28 runoff vote
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

[1/2] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets supporters at the AK Party headquarters in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. August 2001: He establishes the Justice and Development Party, or AK Party (AKP), and is elected chairman. November 2002: The AKP wins elections with nearly 35% of votes after the worst economic slump since the 1970s, promising to break with past mismanagement and recessions. June 2018: Erdogan wins snap presidential elections. Though his popularity has suffered due to a cost-of-living crisis, Erdogan wins more votes than his rival but falls short of the 50% threshold needed to win in the first round, teeing up a May 28 runoff.

☆ Turkey’s election a 'big disappointment for the opposition,' analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTurkey’s election a 'big disappointment for the opposition,' analyst saysSoli Ozel, senior lecturer at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, says the Turkish election is a big disappointment for the opposition and its supporters.

☆ Turkey's election looks likely to head into a runoff vote
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTurkey's election looks likely to head into a runoff voteTurkey votes in a knife-edge election. With most votes counted, neither candidate has reached the 50% threshold for a majority and a runoff vote in two weeks looks likely. CNBC's Dan Murphy reports from Istanbul.

[1/5] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greets supporters at the AK Party headquarters in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. His six-party alliance did not attract as many nationalist voters as expected, partly due to support for Kilicdaroglu's candidacy from a large pro-Kurdish party, the officials said. Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu are expected to meet Ogan in person in the coming days. Given their conservative views, Erdogan and Ogan are seen as easier allies, even though the president's alliance includes a small Islamist Kurdish party that Ogan also opposes. "His motto will be: if you vote for Kilicdaroglu he will be a lame duck," said another senior opposition official who acknowledged a tough road ahead.

☆ Erdogan and Challenger Appear Headed for Runoff Election in Turkey
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Jared Malsin | Elvan Kivilcim | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan will likely face opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the second round of the presidential election on May 28. Photo Composite: Diana ChanISTANBUL—Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main challenger said they were both prepared to accept a runoff election later this month with neither candidate claiming an outright victory in a vote that marked the most severe political challenge to the Turkish leader’s two decades in power. Early results appeared to show neither Mr. Erdogan or his top challenger, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu , reached the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, which would take place on May 28.

☆ Having Established Turkey on the World Stage, Erdogan Faces Risky Vote at Home
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Jared Malsin | Elvan Kivilcim | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

People in Turkey are voting in the tightest election in years, as the country recovers from a devastating earthquake in the midst of an economic crisis. WSJ’s Jared Malsin explains why the results could reverberate beyond Turkey. Photo: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty ImagesISTANBUL—Turkish voters go to the polls on Sunday in one of the most crucial elections in the country’s history—a vote that could bring to an end the long rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and have far-reaching geopolitical consequences for the Middle East, Ukraine and NATO. Mr. Erdogan has towered over Turkish politics for two decades, tightening his grip over the country and eroding democratic institutions at home, while also raising the country’s profile on the international stage.

☆ Turkey's opposition sounds positive tone in landmark vote
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

ANKARA, May 14 (Reuters) - Turkey's opposition presidential candidate said on Sunday "we are leading" in initial election results in which President Tayyip Erdogan's 20-year rule was on the line, while opposition sources gave him a more than one percentage point lead. "We are leading," Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the six-party opposition alliance said on Twitter. Separately, four sources from the six-party opposition alliance told Reuters that Kilicdaroglu was leading Erdogan by a narrow margin according to initial results. They cautioned against relying on state-run Anadolu Agency results that gave Erdogan the initial edge. Earlier, Faik Oztrak, spokesman for Kilicdaroglu's Republican People's Party (CHP), said they were seeing a positive picture even as Anadolu showed Erdogan leading by 52% to 41% based on initial results.

☆ Voting starts in Turkey elections
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

ISTANBUL, May 14 (Reuters) - Turks began voting on Sunday in one of the most consequential elections in modern Turkey's 100-year history, which will decide whether President Tayyip Erdogan extends his two decades in power. Presidential and parliamentary votes are being held, deciding not only who leads Turkey, a NATO-member country of 85 million, but also how it is governed and where its economy is headed amid a deep cost of living crisis. Opinion polls give Erdogan's main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads an alliance of six opposition parties, a slight lead, but if either fails to get more than 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff election on May 28. Reporting by Daren Butler; Editing by William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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