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☆ Russia's economy is being propped up by Wagner Group's gold-smuggling operations, UK government report says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's economy is being sustained by the Wagner Group's gold smuggling operations, the UK government says. A report says the mercenary group has been sneaking "significant" amounts of gold out of Sudan. That gold is then used in trade that's boosting Russia's economy, it added, despite the nation being targeted by western sanctions amid Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine. "Wagner's gold-smuggling operations from Sudan are significant, with one calling them 'critical to Russia's ability to withstand significant sanctions deployed against it for its illegal invasion in Ukraine,'" the report said. And though Putin has downplayed the effect of sanctions, non-government statistics show that Russia's economy is spiraling and in a far worse state than it appears, two Yale researchers said.

Persons: Wagner, Brian Nelson, Putin Organizations: Service, US Treasury, United Arab, Wagner Group, Central African, Terrorism, Financial, Wagner Groups, EU, Yale Locations: Sudan, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, Central African Republic, Russia, Mali, United States, Africa

☆ Here's why China's economy is headed for stagnation, according to Nobel economist Paul Krugman
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's economy is headed for a slowdown, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman. The top economist compared China's disappointing economic performance so far this year to Japan's economic woes in the 90s, when the nation's economic power began to decline. On top of that, China is also suffering from an unbalanced economy, Krugman said, with demand struggling to rebound after the pandemic. Manufacturing activity contracted in May, while real estate activity, which makes up about a fifth of China's economy, has also stalled. Other experts have warned of trouble for China's economy amid its so-far disappointing economic recovery.

Persons: Paul Krugman, Krugman Organizations: Service, New York Times Locations: China, Japan, Wall, Silicon

☆ The US economy is weakening as YOLO spenders pull back from 'fun and games,' economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Consumers that are eager to spend are starting to pull back on "fun and games," economist David Rosenberg said. That spells trouble for the economy, as these so-called YOLO spenders have propped up growth. So-called "fun and games" spending has softened in areas outside of cruise lines and air travel, Rosenberg said, which likely spells trouble for the economy in the coming months. Though GDP grew in the second quarter, real gross domestic income has already fallen into a recession, Rosenberg said, with the measure shrinking over the last two quarters. Markets have been fretting over a potential recession for the past year, as the Fed aggressively hiked interest rates to control inflation.

Persons: David Rosenberg, " Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, CNBC, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, YOLO

☆ Dow notches 11th straight win as traders look to big tech earnings, Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched its 11th straight winning session on Monday. Alphabet and Microsoft report late Tuesday, while Facebook parent Meta reports late Wednesday. Traders also expect the Fed to issue one more rate hike at its policy meeting on Wednesday. Alphabet and Microsoft report late Tuesday, while Facebook parent Meta reports late Wednesday. Meanwhile, investors are anticipating the Fed to hike rates another 25 basis points at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday.

Organizations: Dow Jones, Microsoft, Facebook, Traders, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The US economy is in for rollercoaster inflation and could be headed for an ultra-rare 'full employment recession,' BlackRock says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is in for rollercoaster inflation that could hurt corporate profits, BlackRock strategists said. Markets are in a new regime of volatility that could bring on a "full employment recession," they added. But at the same time, the labor market remains tight, which is driving wage inflation as workers push for higher pay. A rollercoaster trajectory over the next quarters before inflation likely settles near 3% – well above the Fed's 2% target," strategists said. That rollercoaster could potentially spell bad news for stocks: High inflation can weather corporate profits by increasing costs for firms.

Organizations: BlackRock, Service, New, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, downturns, Europe

☆ China's economy is in trouble - and its youth unemployment crisis is at the heart of the problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's youth unemployment problem is the root of its economic woes, according to economist Nancy Qian. That's largely due to a shortage of high-skill, high-paying jobs, which will weigh on its economy. That's largely been driven by the lack of high-skill and high-paying jobs in China's employment market, which have left many college graduates unable to find work. Meanwhile, China's economy has been slowing, with the nation seeing a disappointing economic revival since dialing back its zero-COVID policies at the start of this year. But current patterns raise profound concerns for China's economic outlook, especially considering that the government's policies for addressing them have not worked," Qian said.

Persons: Nancy Qian, That's, Qian, It's, that's Organizations: Service, Northwestern University, Project Syndicate, National Bureau of Statistics, Monetary Fund Locations: Wall, Silicon, China

☆ The US is going through a rolling recession, and that's slashed the risk of a hard landing for the economy, Bank of America exec says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US is in a rolling recession that's hitting sector by sector, Bank of America's Keith Banks said. Banks pointed to weakness in manufacturing, energy, and housing, though services remains strong. He predicted a mild recession to come in the first-half of 2024, with GDP slowing 1%-1.5%. "We think this sort of rolling recession has taken out that big-bang risk of a hard landing, which a lot of people were worried about at the beginning of this year," he later added. Other commentators have turned more optimistic on the economy as the job market remains strong and inflation cools.

Persons: Bank of America's Keith Banks, Banks, that's, Keith Banks, We've, there's Organizations: Bank of America's, Service, Bank of America, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ There's more pain coming for residential and commercial real estate as tight credit and job worries threaten property markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Residential and commercial real estate have more pain coming as financial conditions tighten, Wells Fargo said. Commercial real estate is struggling as work-from-home trends remain popular, the bank said. Meanwhile, in commercial real estate, office demand is still way down as work-from-home trends remain popular. "We expect commercial real estate to underperform on a relative basis in the near-to-intermediate term," Wren said of the sector. Meanwhile, commercial real estate prices are in danger of falling dramatically, with Morgan Stanley strategists predicting a 40% peak-to-trough decline.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Scott Wren, that's, Wren, Banks, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Housing, Service, Silicon Valley Bank, National Association of Realtors, Real Estate Investment Locations: Wall, Silicon, Wells Fargo, underperform

☆ Tesla's Full Self-Driving feature could add $20 billion a year in revenue, Gene Munster says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Tesla's FSD software could bring major gains to the company's revenue, Gene Munster said. If Tesla licenses out the technology and lowers the price, that could add up to $20 billion a year. Sharing Tesla's FSD technology could be a major boost, since competitors are likely to use a first-to-market technology instead of spending money to develop their own version. By the fifth year, that could likely expand to an additional $20 billion in annual revenue, he added. "While these targets are many years away, it illustrates the FSD licensing opportunity is meaningful and worth the wait,"Munster said.

Persons: Gene Munster, Tesla, Elon, Munster Organizations: Service, Deepwater Asset Management, Munster Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Dow hits 8-day winning streak as investors hope for more upbeat earnings reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks rose on Wednesday, with the Dow extending its winning streak to eight days. Investors are hoping for more upbeat earnings reports for the second quarter. Blue chips are now in their longest winning streak since September 2019 and are at their highest level since early 2022. Investors are hoping for more upbeat earnings amid a strong reporting season so far. Markets are eyeing earnings for Big Tech firms next, with Tesla, Netflix, and IBM set to report late Wednesday.

Organizations: Dow, Investors, Tesla, Netflix, IBM, Service, Dow Jones, Big Tech Locations: Wall, Silicon, Here's

☆ Tesla's board of directors will return $735 million on claims they were overpaid
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Tesla directors are returning $735 million to the company to settle a suit that claims they were overpaid. That includes $458.6 million in company shares and $276.6 million in cash, per court filings. That totals to around $735 million, consisting of $458.6 million in company shares and $276.6 million in cash. The $735 million settlement stems from a 2020 lawsuit, wherein Detroit's Police and Fire Retirement System accused Tesla's board members of overpaying themselves in the form of stock options from 2017 to 2020. Tesla directors denied those claims, arguing that the company saw rapid growth sent the stock soaring.

Persons: Elon Musk, Larry Ellison, Rupert Murdoch's, James Murdoch, Elon Musk's, Kimbal Musk –, Tesla's, Tesla Organizations: Elon, Service, Oracle, Delaware Chancery, Reuters, Detroit's Police Locations: Wall, Silicon, Delaware

☆ Russia ramps up its economic war with the West as it seizes local operations of 2 corporate giants
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia escalated its economic war with the West by seizing local operations of Carlsberg and Danone. They marked the second seizures of Western assets since the Kremlin unveiled a decree in April. To slow the exodus of Western firms out of Russia, the Kremlin previously mandated a steep discount for any firms trying to sell their local operations as well as an exit tax. But the recent seizures of Western assets signal a continued escalation in Russia's economic war with the West, which imposed punishing sanctions on Moscow in 2022 for its war on Ukraine. Meanwhile, 523 of the major firms in the study have permanently withdrawn from Russia, while 503 firms have temporarily suspended operations.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Germany's Uniper, Danone Organizations: Carlsberg, Danone, Kremlin, Service, Russian, Carlsberg Group, Danone Russia, Yale School of Management Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Danish, Moscow, Ukraine

☆ Commercial real estate lending fell for the first time in 2 years last month as credit conditions tighten
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Commercial real estate lending fell for the first time in two years last month amid tight credit conditionsDebt on commercial property fell to $5.44 trillion in June, driven by a large drop in multifamily lending. Outstanding commercial real estate debt dropped to $5.44 trillion in June, marking the first drop in commercial real estate lending recorded in two years, according to Refinitiv data cited by Capital Economics. Multifamily property debt fell by $21.6 billion last month, the research firm said. Still, commercial property debt saw sluggish growth in June, increasing by just $7.4 billion last month. Commercial real estate prices could plunge as much as 40% from their peak, Morgan Stanley previously estimated, which would mark an even more severe crash than what was seen in the 2008 financial crisis.

Persons: That's, Charlie Cornes, Banks, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Capital Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US home prices are nearing new record highs as inventory drops to all-time low
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The median sale price clocked in at $426,056 in June, just 1.5% below the all-time-high. That's as the inventory of available homes for sale dropped to a record low last month. It marks the slowest decline in home prices the housing market has seen in five months. Buyers, meanwhile, have grown used to elevated mortgage rates, which has exacerbated the inventory shortage. With home prices back near record highs, buyers are also less worried that they'll buy a house that'll plunge in value."

Persons: That's, Daryl Fairweather, they'll, Robert Reffkin, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service, Mortgage, Association, Homeowners Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Hmong cuisine and culture are having a moment in the US. We spoke with the restaurateurs and farmers driving innovation.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

It marks a renaissance of sorts for the Hmong community, which has historically been insular. He also recently appeared on "Iron Chef" and was the first to serve Hmong food at the Minnesota State Fair. Though for decades, Xiong said Hmong businesses struggled to market outside the Hmong community. La Vang-Herr also opened her Hmong business in an area with few Hmong residents. Sean LeschMortchee's, a Hmong eatery in a former Wausau, Wisconsin, ice-cream stand, has also been a lifeline for the local Hmong community since opening earlier this year.

Persons: Yia Vang, Vang, James Beard, Kao Kalia Yang, Sunisa Lee, Lee Pao Xiong, Paul, Xiong, Peng Her, They're, We've, Diane Moua, Moua, Gemma Weston, Mai Vang, Pom, La, Herr, Sean Lesch Mortchee's, Sa Sor Lee, there's, Lee, Toua Xiong, we've, Pheng, we're Organizations: Service, Union Hmong, Minnesota, Fair, Google, Center, Hmong Studies, Concordia University, St, Pew Research Center, Hmong Institute, Twin Cities, Twin, American Farmers Association Locations: Wall, Silicon, Vang, Minneapolis, Oakland , California, Vietnam, Madison , Wisconsin, Minnesota, Twin, Siskiyou County, California, New York, Montague, Oregon, Portland , Oregon, Wausau , Wisconsin, Twin Cities, St

☆ Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says the Goldilocks inflation figures for June put stocks in the ideal environment
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Inflation came in just right in June, and it means stocks are in the "ideal environment," Jeremy Siegel said. That's well below the 41-year-record above 9% notched last summer, and a sign that the Fed's tightening efforts are working to cool the economy. "We've got kind of a Goldilocks report," Siegel said in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday. It's the ideal environment for stocks," Siegel added. Stocks popped 2% this week, as investors expect the Fed to soon pause or dial back interest rates after the release of the June inflation report.

Persons: Jeremy Siegel, they've, We've, Siegel, Stocks Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ BlackRock chief Larry Fink says US debt is 'out of control' - but an accelerating economy can solve that problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The mountain of US debt is growing out of control, BlackRock's Larry Fink said. The national debt just topped $32 trillion for the first time in June. But GDP growth of 3% or more could solve that problem, Fink told CNBC on Friday. "Our deficits are out of control," Fink said in an interview with CNBC on Friday, pointing to the growing mountain of US debt after Congress suspended the limit on national borrowing. The total federal debt balance now hovers around $32.5 trillion, with $1 trillion being racked up in the past month alone.

Persons: BlackRock's Larry Fink, Fink, Larry Fink, Biden's Organizations: CNBC, Service, BlackRock, Congressional Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Remote work could spark an $800 billion crash in office prices around the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Office buildings could suffer an $800 billion crash as work-from-home remains popular, per a new McKinsey report. Office prices could see a 26% drop by 2030, or a 42% drop in a more severe scenario, the consulting firm estimated. In a more severe scenario, demand could be 38% lower by 2030. In a moderate scenario, office prices could plunge 26% through 2030, compared to levels in 2019. In a more severe scenario, prices could plunge as much as 42%, researchers said -- in line with what other economists have predicted for the sector.

Organizations: McKinsey, Service, McKinsey Global Institute, New, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon, New York City, San Francisco, Houston

☆ The drop in inflation in June paves the way for the US economy to avoid a recession, former PIMCO chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The drop in inflation is strengthening the case the US will avoid a recession, economist Paul McCulley said. The former chief economist of PIMCO pointed to June CPI, which showed inflation eased to 3%. Cooling prices in the economy is exactly what the Fed and markets want to see, he said. They don't have to stay high as long as they think if it turns out that the lags are nastier than we think," McCulley said. Other commentators have turned more positive on the economy and markets as inflation continues to cool without sparking significant weakness in the labor market.

Persons: Paul McCulley, PIMCO, McCulley Organizations: Service, Consumer, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US stocks jump as investors cheer lowest inflation reading in over 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Headline inflation eased to just 3% in June, marking the lowest inflation reading in 2 years. Core inflation, meanwhile, posted a year-per-year increase of 4.8% last month, below the expected 5%. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 4.8% year-per-year, below economists' estimates of a 5% increase. The AI revolution is here and will spark a 15% rally in tech stocks, according to Wedbush's Dan Ives. A recession is looking less likely as inflation cools and the job market stays resilient, according to top economist Paul Krugman.

Persons: Neil Birrell, Ray Dalio, Wedbush's Dan Ives, Paul Krugman Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US stocks climb as traders hope cooler June inflation means end to Fed tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks climbed higher on Wednesday as traders took in good June inflation data. Traders are hoping cooler inflation will soon bring an end to Fed rate hikes, which have weighed on stocks. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Investors are still widely expecting the Fed to hike rates 25 basis points at its July policy meeting, which would lift the fed funds rate target to 5.25%-5.5%. Another rate hike remains on the table, but bets that the Fed will pause in September rose to 82% from 72% on Tuesday.

Organizations: Traders, Service, Barclays Locations: Wall, Silicon, Here's

☆ Billionaires and corporate execs have dumped $9 billion worth of stock this year amid the market's latest rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Billionaires and CEOs have dumped $9 billion in stock this year. Many of those sales have been concentrated in the tech sector amid Wall Street's frenzy over AI. Executives have cashed in on the rally as the S&P 500 recovers from a dismal 2022 performance. Meanwhile, AirBnB co-founder Joe Gebbia sold off $893 million of his company's stock during the first half. Oracle CEO Safra Catz also trimmed her holdings of the company, selling $470 million worth of the company's stock.

Persons: Walton, AirBnB, Joe Gebbia, Larry Ellison, Safra Catz, Salesforce's Marc Benioff, Stephane Bancel, Josh Harris Organizations: Service, CNBC, Walmart, Sam's, Oracle, Moderna, Apollo, Vanda Research Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The economy is expanding and investors need to buy the dip in stocks, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should buy the recent pullback in equities, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. He called the sell-off in response to the hot ADP jobs report "exaggerated." But the economy is actually "slipping into an expansion," Lee said, setting up stocks for gains. But Lee's comments came before the Labor Department released its June jobs report early Friday. In the meantime, we believe markets have entered a 'buy the dip' regime where 2% pullbacks need to be bought," he later added.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, — Organizations: Service, Dow, Labor Department, New York Fed

☆ Commercial real estate values are set to crater as much as 40% by 2025 in these 6 cities
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Commercial real estate values will crater as much as 40% in some cities, Capital Economics said. The research firm highlighted cities it dubbed "major markets": San Francisco, Chicago, New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, and Washington, DC. San Francisco is expected to suffer the largest decline, with commercial property values in the city plummeting 40%-45% from 2023-2025. Other experts have been warning of trouble for the commercial real estate sector amid struggling post-pandemic demand for office properties and the anticipated crunch in credit conditions, which could spark more trouble for commercial real estate assets. Morgan Stanley sees a 40% crash in commercial real estate prices, meaning the sector would suffer an even more severe downturn than it did in 2008.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Capital Economics, Service Locations: San Francisco, Chicago , New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, Washington, DC, Chicago, New York, LA, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Southern, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta

☆ Cheap oil from Iran is filling the hole left by Saudi Arabia and Russia's productions cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Iran has been selling more of its crude as Saudi Arabia and Russia dial back oil production. The nation sold 1.6 million barrels a day on average in May and June, notching a five-year record. The surge comes as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other OPEC+ producers take major steps to dial back oil production, with Saudi Arabia extending its 1 million barrel-a-day production cut through August, and Russia recently vowing to slash its oil production by another half million barrels a day. Iranian suppliers have also offered steep discounts on crude relative to Saudi Arabia and even Russia, which has discounted its oil heavily since beginning its invasion of Ukraine. Iranian oil is sold around a $30 discount per barrel compared to competitors in the Persian Gulf, officials told the Journal.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Petro, Logistics, Wall Street Locations: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Persian, China, Syria, Venezuela, OPEC, Ukraine

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