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Rises in food prices, which make up about half the consumer price index (CPI), continue to cool from recent peaks after the Indian government enacted a series of measures to boost supply. "Having said that, the persistent part of the food inflation problem remains there, which is cereals, pulses and spices, and I think the RBI can't do much about it anyway." Rising crude oil prices are also likely to keep inflation elevated in the world's third-largest oil importer. Oil prices rose around 3% on Monday to trade around $90 a barrel. "Oil prices ... are likely to remain high over the remainder of the year on global supply concerns," said Alexandra Hermann at Oxford Economics.
Persons: Amit Dave, Dhiraj Nim, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of India's, CPI, ANZ Research, Oxford, Inflation, Thomson Locations: Ahmedabad, India, BENGALURU
REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 10 (Reuters) - Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday said the U.S. central bank need not raise borrowing costs any further, and sees no recession ahead even as the Fed's rate hikes so far slow the economy and bring down inflation. "I actually don't think we need to increase rates anymore" to get too-high inflation back down to the Fed's 2% goal, Bostic told the American Bankers Association, to applause. Policy is sufficiently restrictive, and "a lot" of the impact of the Fed's rate hikes so far is clearly yet to come, he said. The conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas which broke out over the weekend creates uncertainty for the United States and the global economy, Bostic said, noting that it will cause rethinking on markets and investments. If data comes in differently from what he expects, Bostic said "we might have to increase (the Fed policy rate), but that's not my outlook right now, and that's not my expectation."
Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael, Bostic, Clodagh, Raphael Bostic, that's, Ann Saphir, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, REUTERS, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, American Bankers Association, Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Dublin, Ireland, U.S, Israel, United States, Ukraine
New Zealand's Economy Poses Challenge for Election Victor
  + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Oct. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +4 min
That will stiffen the challenge for the nation's two major parties, the centre-left Labour Party and the centre-right National Party, to deliver its agenda where rising prices and government debt have been hot-button election issues. “The Reserve Bank will need the government to do its bit if it is to cap the cash rate at the 5.5% it currently suggests,” analysts at Bank of New Zealand said in a note. DEBT, AND MORE DEBTThe biggest challenge for many New Zealanders is mortgage rates. At the same time government borrowing costs are increasing and the country’s ballooning current account deficit poses a risk to the country’s credit rating. Kelly Eckhold, chief economist at Westpac New Zealand said tough fiscal choices face an incoming government.
Persons: Lucy Craymer WELLINGTON, won’t, Kelly Eckhold, , Lucy Craymer, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Reuters, Labour Party, National Party, Bank, Bank of New, National, Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Labour, NZ, Westpac New Zealand, Zealand Locations: Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, Zealanders, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
"We do not see a path forward for legislation to cap credit card interest rates," Seiberg said. There are 70 million more credit card accounts open now than in 2019, it said. Credit card interest rates have predominantly remained below 36% due to "self-restraint" by banks, though that's still "extremely high" for a credit card, said Lauren Saunders, associate director at the National Consumer Law Center. I think some of the [political] lines are starting to blur a little bit, at least on credit card issues. How to reduce your personal card rate to 0%Rossman's general advice to consumers: Make your personal credit card rate 0%.
Persons: Luis Alvarez, Rossman, Seiberg, There's, that's, Lauren Saunders, Ted Rossman, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio, Glenn Grothman, Grothman, Hawley Organizations: Digitalvision, Getty, Cowen Washington Research Group, Republican, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve, National Consumer Law Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Alexandria, Cortez, Jesús, Chuy, García
"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.
Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York
Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. The dollar index , which earlier in the week hit a roughly 11-month high of 107.34, last settled at 106.37, but remained on track for 12 straight weeks of gains. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.7269%, while the two-year yield settled at 5.0267%. The pause in the dollar's rally has also provided a much-needed reprieve for the yen , which last bought 148.48 per dollar. Sterling edged 0.03% lower to $1.2188 and was likewise headed for five straight weeks of losses, struggling against a dominant dollar.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Rodrigo Catril, We've, Vishnu Varathan, Thierry Wizman, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, . Treasury, greenback, U.S, Treasury, National Australia Bank, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Mizuho Bank ., Sterling, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The dollar dipped on Friday but traders were largely keeping to the sidelines in both the currency and U.S. Treasury markets as they looked to U.S. nonfarm payrolls data later in the day for potential catalysts. The dollar index , which earlier in the week hit a roughly 11-month high of 107.34, last settled at 106.37, but remained on track for 12 straight weeks of gains. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.7269%, while the two-year yield settled at 5.0267%. The pause in the dollar's rally has also provided a much-needed reprieve for the yen , which last bought 148.48 per dollar. Sterling edged 0.03% lower to $1.2188 and was likewise headed for five straight weeks of losses, struggling against a dominant dollar.
Persons: Rodrigo Catril, We've, Vishnu Varathan, Thierry Wizman Organizations: . Treasury, greenback, U.S, Treasury, National Australia Bank, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Mizuho Bank ., Sterling, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Locations: U.S, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Two women walk next to the Reserve Bank of Australia headquarters in central Sydney, Australia February 6, 2018. In an effort to curb surging inflation, the central bank has lifted interest rates to a decade-high of 4.1%, causing widespread financial stress among households where debt levels are at record peaks. "A small, but rising share of borrowers are on the cusp, or in the early stages, of financial stress," the review stated. "A tightening in global financial conditions could transmit to Australia via linkages in funding markets and risk aversion," the review said. Another area of concern was China's property sector where financial stress was proving a drag on the world's second largest economy and Australia's single biggest export market.
Persons: Daniel Munoz, Michele Bullock, Wayne Cole Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Rights, Financial, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, China, U.S, United States, AUSTRALIA
"With this one report, [the data] continues to say it's a strong labor market, but it is getting a little bit less tight than we saw before," Mester said in an interview on CNN International. Mester spoke to the television channel following the release of the September jobs report, which showed the U.S. added a bigger-than-expected 336,000 jobs last month and upwardly revised the prior month's job gain, with a steady 3.8% unemployment rate. The strength of the jobs data renewed bond market worries about additional Fed rate hikes which had receded among many investors. Several economists noted the softening earnings data in the report, evidence that inflation pressures continued to ebb, reducing pressure on the Fed to hike rates further. "What we've seen in the economy so far is that it's been a very resilient economy," Mester said, adding "economic growth has been strikingly strong and yet we're still making progress on inflation."
Persons: Loretta J, Mester, Jim Urquhart, Loretta Mester, it's, Michael S, Diane Craft, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Jackson, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland, CNN International, Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Jackson , Wyoming, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Indian rupee is under pressure but the Reserve Bank of India is 'standing strong,' HSBC saysPranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at the bank, says the Reserve Bank of India has a "huge wall of FX reserves," which it is using to keep the currency as stable as possible.
Persons: Pranjul Bhandari Organizations: Reserve Bank of, HSBC Locations: Reserve Bank of India, India
A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is seen inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, April 6, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas Acquire Licensing RightsMUMBAI, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India's key lending rate was held steady at a fourth consecutive policy meeting on Friday, as widely expected, with investors more focused on the regulator's liquidity management plan amid a resurgence in inflation. The country's monetary policy committee (MPC) kept the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) unchanged at 6.50%, in a unanimous decision. It has raised rates by 250 basis points (bps) since May 2022 in a bid to cool surging prices. High inflation has put the focus back on liquidity management amid the reduced ability to keep hiking rates at the risk of hurting growth and commentary and further measures, if any, are being closely monitored by market participants.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Das, Swati Bhat, Sudipto Ganguly, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Bank of India, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Rights MUMBAI
That was a decrease of $3.8 billion from the previous week. India's forex reserves are "sizeable" and "very comfortable," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday, while reiterating that the central bank's intervention aims to prevent any volatility of the rupee's exchange rate. Foreign exchange reserves include India's Reserve Tranche position in the International Monetary Fund. For the week the forex reserves data pertains, the rupee had fallen 0.1% against the dollar and traded in a range of 83.0225 and 83.2450. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES (in million U.S. dollars)Source text: (https://bit.ly/3PD1mzC)Reporting by Siddhi Nayak; editing by Eileen SorengOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Shaktikanta Das, Siddhi Nayak, Eileen Soreng Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, International Monetary Fund, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI
The September jobs report that the Labor Department will issue Friday will show just how much of that durability remains. A growing body of evidence, though, suggests that the job market is cooling — something Fed officials would like to see. Businesses often raise their prices to cover their higher labor costs. Fewer Americans are quitting their jobs after a surge in resignations in the aftermath of the pandemic. Most people quit to take other jobs with higher pay, so the decline in quitting indicates that workers now see fewer available opportunities elsewhere.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mary Daly, ” Daly, Goldman Sachs Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Economic, of New Locations: United States, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, of New York
Oct 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. A batch of data from Japan includes household spending and consumption figures, leading indicators, and the latest foreign exchange reserves. But Bank of Japan money market data indicates that the yen's jump on Tuesday was not the product of yen-buying intervention. The big policy event in Asia will be the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, and more importantly, its guidance. The rupee goes into the meeting trading at 83.00 per dollar, right down at August's record low 83.45 per dollar.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, payrolls Organizations: Bank, Reserve Bank, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Japan, Asia, U.S, India
The collective impact of higher rates across the economy could also weaken the government's own finances. With borrowing rates high and inflation still relatively elevated, consumers, who drive about 70% of economic growth, are expected to spend more cautiously. “Those tighter, higher rates will have an impact on the economy.”Financial analysts point to several reasons for the rapid increase in lending rates. Overseas buyers have reduced their purchases, thereby forcing rates higher to attract buyers. “All of that is driving these fears of higher rates, and no one knows when it’s going to stop,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Freddie Mac, Loretta Mester, ” Mester, it’s, , Gennadiy Goldberg, Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Durham, Jerome Powell, , we’re, ’ ”, Nancy Vanden Houten, David Page Organizations: WASHINGTON, United Auto Workers, Representatives, Republican, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, , Fed, Treasury Department, TD Securities, Oxford Economics, AXA Locations: U.S, ’ ” Durham, London
View of an entrance to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in Wellington, New Zealand November 10, 2022. “Interest rates are constraining economic activity and reducing inflationary pressure as required,” the central bank said in a statement. The past RBNZ rate hikes have sharply slowed New Zealand’s economy but recent data showed it was tracking above central bank expectations at 0.9% quarterly growth. The central bank releases a comprehensive update of economic indicators and the forecast official cash rate track when it publishes its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), which is due on Nov. 29. “The Bank appears content to wait for restrictive policy settings to fully feed through to the real economy,” analysts at Capital Economics in a note.
Persons: Lucy Craymer, , Kelly Eckhold, Organizations: WELLINGTON, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, Westpac NZ, U.S . Federal Reserve, Capital Economics Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington , New Zealand, Global, New Zealand
Yen cowers near 150 as intervention chatter runs rife
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
[1/3] Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. Japanese authorities last year intervened to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998. Other currencies similarly fell against the yen in the previous session, with the euro losing more than 1.5% to a low of 154.39 yen. Sterling edged 0.03% lower to $1.20745, languishing near the previous session's close to seven-month low of $1.20535. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she is open to raising interest rates again.
Persons: Florence Lo, James Malcolm, Masato Kanda, Janet Yellen, Rodrigo Catril, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, UBS, Tokyo, Treasury, Sterling, National Australia Bank, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Washington, Japan
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on July 18, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. House Speaker, mutedEight hardline conservative Republicans joined all Democrats to oust Republican Kevin McCarthy as speaker in a "motion to vacate" introduced by Republican Matt Gaetz. Patrick McHenry, a close McCarthy ally, will assume the role of speaker temporarily; McCarthy said he won't be running again.
Persons: Kospi, CBRE, Knight Frank, Republican Kevin McCarthy, Matt Gaetz, Patrick McHenry, McCarthy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones, Treasury, Nikkei, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Japan's, U.S, Republicans, Democrats, Republican, Citi Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific, Canada
Morning Bid: Bond steamroller flattens all
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. That's all on top of the ongoing rethink of the Fed's long-term rate horizon and increasingly high-pressure economy. Hit from all sides, the Treasury market is simply in ructions - catalysed perhaps by technical, speculative and positioning factors too. Ten-year yields hit a whopping 4.88% early on Wednesday - an increase of 80 basis points in little over a month. And implied volatility in the bond market (.MOVE) hit its highest since May.
Persons: Florence Lo, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Jeffrey Schmid, St, Louis Fed, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Mehmet Simsek, Bernadette Baum Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Congress, riven, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Treasury, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of New, P Global, U.S . Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Kansas City Fed, Turkish, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Washington, Asia, Europe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Kansas, London
It needs to translate into changes in economic outcomes," Bostic said in comments to reporters alongside the release of a new policy essay. Part of that adaptation is how the Fed's short-term benchmark is translated ultimately into mortgage rates, corporate bonds yields, and other securities that influence economic activity. In separate comments, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she similarly is watching how the rise in bond yields will play out, even though she feels the Fed's policy rate still needs to rise. It may well be that the Fed's hawkish rate posture is no longer the primary impetus for the rise in yields. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael, Bostic, Clodagh, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Mester, Torsten Slok, Slok, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Atlanta Federal Reserve, U.S, Cleveland Fed, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Fitch, Treasury Department, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Dublin, Ireland, Atlanta, China, York
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The dollar fell as low as 147.30 yen versus the Japanese currency, after hitting a one-year high of 150.165. Tuesday's low in the dollar was its weakest level in three weeks versus the Japanese currency. The euro dropped to a roughly two-month low against the yen of 154.39 yen and was last down 0.7% to 155.99. That earlier drove the dollar higher as real interest rates factor in inflation.
Persons: Florence Lo, Shunichi Suzuki, Colin Asher, Sterling, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Herbert Lash, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Lucy Raitano, Joice Alves, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Japan, Japanese Finance, New York Federal Reserve, Mizuho, Bannockburn Global, U.S . Labor, Labor, Survey, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Japan, London, Bannockburn, New York
Australia central bank holds rates at 4.1% for fourth month
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
SYDNEY, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank held interest rates steady on Tuesday for a fourth month, but again warned that further tightening might be needed to bring inflation to heel in a reasonable timeframe. Wrapping up its October policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held rates at 4.10% and said recent data were consistent with inflation returning to its 2–3 percent target over time with output and employment still growing. Markets had wagered heavily on a steady outcome this month, though there is still some chance of a hike in November depending on how inflation progresses over the third quarter. Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson
The euro also traded near a one-year low against the greenback, dropping below January's 1.0482 nadir, as manufacturing surveys released in both Europe and the U.S. on Monday highlighted the divergence between the two economies. The dollar index rose around 0.5% to 107.06, at one point hitting as high as 107.12, its highest since November 2022. Japan's key economic ministers warned again on Monday that authorities were watching with a "strong sense of urgency" as the yen slid. The yen was last at 149.80 against the dollar, just off the overnight low of 149.88. (This story has been corrected to fix euro milestone to near one-year low, not over one-year low, in paragraph 2)Reporting by Brigid Riley Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Kong, Sterling, Brigid Riley, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Europe
Asian stocks slip on rate worries, yen in focus
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
U.S. Federal Reserve officials said that monetary policy will need to stay restrictive for "some time" to bring inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target. Still, the hawkish rhetoric from the Fed officials comes as an ongoing debate over another possible rate hike this year rages on. "If it were down to us, we would wait for another month of rising inflation and the third-quarter inflation numbers. The yen was last at 149.83 per U.S. dollar in Asian hours, having scaled a fresh near 12-month low of 149.895 earlier in the session. The dollar index , which measures the U.S currency against six major rivals, rose 0.093% to scale a fresh 10-month peak.
Persons: Hong, Michelle Bowman, Rob Carnell, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Jamie Freed Organizations: Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, . Federal, Fed, Reserve Bank of, Reuters, ING, Japanese Finance, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in August, another sign the U.S. labor market remains strong despite higher interest rates — perhaps too strong for the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve. American employers posted 9.6 million job openings in August, up from 8.9 million in July and the first uptick in three months, the Labor Department said Tuesday. ""Yes, the job market is still retaining a lot of heat,'' he said, "but it hasn't gone back on the boil.'' The Federal Reserve wants to see the red-hot U.S. job market cool off, reducing pressure on businesses to raise pay, which can feed into higher prices. The Fed chose not to raise rates at its last meeting Sept. 19-20.
Persons: Economists, , Nick Bunker, hasn't, Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, Rubeela Farooqi, Loretta Mester, , ” Mester, Christopher Rugaber Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, AP
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